Scenario planning is a method for learning about the future by understanding the factors that are affecting the world now. The history of scenario planning emerged after the world war II, and it was first used by the U.S air force, when they tried to predict what would the enemy do, and prepared alternative strategies. These days scenario
planing is used every where in almost every field.
Scenario planning and design are two different sides but for the same coin. when designing any thing the designer have to plan some scenarios that can face him during designing and scenario that can affect his design. Most scenarios are planned to manage risks related to innovation investments that extend long into the future, and designs are designed for he future so its very important to mange all the scenarios that can face our design.
Scenario planning derives from the observation that given so you can predict what will the future be like and what will be the need of the people in the future , so based on your observation now you can make a design that can satisfy the people for the next 10, 15, or 20 years. Finally when trying to plan the best scenario not just for design but in general you should consider these four driving forces: Social dynamic, Economic issues, Political issues , and Technological issues.
references :
1- http://www.juergendaum.com/news/09_08_2001.htm