Monthly Archives: April 2015

Dynamic modeling with an emphasis on earthquake triggering

The Nepal earthquake and it’s enormous aftershocks inspired again my thoughts about earthquake triggering. However, being involved in such class gave a basic understanding of how earthquakes works, hence I started searching for an earthquake model that enables such phenomena without a huge number of assumptions.

Most recently, there was a paper published in the journal of Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, that entitled “Dynamic triggering of earthquakes is promoted by crustal heterogeneities and bimaterial faults”. The take away point of this paper is that both stiff and weak materials focus stress waves to form an enhanced stress zone. However, their work provided a non-uniform of such zone in a heterogeneous medium.

Find the paper over the following link:

http://www.sciencedirect.com.ezaccess.libraries.psu.edu/science/article/pii/S0031920114002234?via%3Dihub

Coseismic interferogram -Nepal earthquake -InSAR and GPS observations.

Here I posted the InSAR observations from ESA -European Space Agency where they have posted several coseismic interferograms to track the ground deformation on Nepal area.

They compute several interferograms that are available to download. The best interferometric solution, combination of, 17.Apr – 29.Apr (descending), showed around 34 fringes or 1 meter line-of-sight displacement, due the 7.8 earthquake.

http://insarap.org

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-32515059

On the same way, the continuous GPS sites close to the Nepal Earthquake recorded the ground motion.  Then, according UNAVCO report, they have compute some seismogeodetic seismograms using GPS data at 1 Hz and and 30 s. The GPS sites are located 200, 400 and ~ 60 km from the earthquake.

http://www.unavco.org/voce/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=1390&sid=e13c8d62c6054d63cfe308aaf5a7c78c#p2507

 

Seismic Cycle of the Himalayas

Given the recent damaging event in Nepal, I was interested in reading this paper on the seismic cycle of the Himalayas. Unfortunately, all but the abstract is in French. I was wondering if Maeva or any other French-speaking class member(s) would be willing to translate some of the key points of the article for the rest of us. It would be greatly appreciated!

Thanks.

Finite-Fault Model for the Apr 25, 2015 Mw 7.9 Nepal Earthquake

According the USGS web site, they have analyzed selected P, SH and long-period surface waves to construct a kinematic model of this large earthquake. The NEIC solution (Lon. = 84.7 deg.; Lat. = 28.2 deg., Dep. = 15.0 km), has a fixed depth at 15 km. The fault plane dips 10° and strikes  295° (just north of west). The maximum displacement is ~ 3m (Figure accessed Sunday 26 April, 2015).

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us20002926#scientific_finitefault

[From the USGS] Cross-section of slip distribution. The strike direction is indicated above each fault plane and the hypocenter location is denoted by a star. Slip amplitude is shown in color and the motion direction of the hanging wall relative to the footwall (rake angle) is indicated with arrows. Contours show the rupture initiation time in seconds.

[From the USGS] Cross-section of slip distribution. The strike direction is indicated above each fault plane and the hypocenter location is denoted by a star. Slip amplitude is shown in color and the motion direction of the hanging wall relative to the footwall (rake angle) is indicated with arrows. Contours show the rupture initiation time in seconds.

Weather Underground

Gotta love the title- “Weather Underground.”

This article makes for an interesting read about the recent increase in unusually large earthquakes in Oklahoma caused by fluid injection wells. The article goes on to discuss the transformation of the oil state due to an accidental discovery of oil back in 1859. It also talks about how the lack of transparency of oil companies is irritating some of the citizens of OK.

Here’s a snippet:

“At least eight bills have been proposed that aim to make it difficult for communities to set their own rules for oil drilling.”

“The first oil discovered in Oklahoma was found accidentally, in 1859, in a well drilled to find salt, near present-day Salina; the oil was sold as fuel for lamps. As related in “Oklahoma Oil: Past, Present, and Future,” by Dan Boyd, the next find came in 1889, near Chelsea, where a well produced half a barrel of oil per day; it was used to treat cattle for ticks. Then, in 1897, a well drilled near Bartlesville became a major oil producer, and many others followed. Within ten years, Oklahoma was producing more oil than anywhere else in the world. Not coincidentally, in 1907, Oklahoma went from being a territory to being the forty-sixth state. The state constitution includes a legal definition of kerosene”

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/04/13/weather-underground

Earthquakes and Smart Phones

A team of geophysicists have established a proof of concept technique that uses smart phones as an early warning system for earthquakes.  The core of this concept utilizes the fact that smart phones have become prolific and are continuing to increase in number.  The idea is to have a ‘network’ of people’s phones and use the gps and accelerometer of the phone to measure movement.  The proof of concept analysis determined that this network of phones could accurately determine earthquake size and estimate the epicenter.

That then allows the app to send early warning notifications to users around the event.  Warning times could be issued.  The article states, “Assuming only a small number of potentially available smart phones would be active at any moment, the team found that phones representing 0.2 percent of the study area’s population – about 4,700 people – could trigger an alert for the Hayward quake within five seconds of its onset. That would represent a few seconds’ warning time for San Francisco and tens of seconds for San Jose that major shaking was on its way.”  The warning time, although not huge, could allow people to be better prepared for the shaking when it arrives.

You can find the article here.

Aftershock triggering model using revised rate and state friction law

The rate- and state- dependent friction laws (RSF) are empirical relations based on laboratory experiments that have been used to model a variety of earthquake behaviors, including the mechanics of a seismic cycle, episodic aseismic slip, and triggered seismicity (Kame et. al, 2013). These laws describe variations in friction based on the loading rate and state of the sheared zone. There are several forms of the RSF laws. The paper summarized below is based on the RSF law proposed by Dieterich (1979) and a more recently revised version proposed by Nagata et al. (2012).

In 1994, Dieterich modeled aftershock seismicity after an imposed stress step using his RSF model. His model can predict the observed 1/t decay of aftershock rate but there are two major observational gaps: (1) The model under predicts the amount of aftershock productivity and (2) The model predicts too long a delay time before the onset of decay. In a recent paper, Kame et al. (2013) hoped to address these gaps by running similar models using the Nagata RSF law.

Dieterich’s model considered a fault of fixed size embedded in an elastic medium. He was able to solve for the aftershock rate analytically. Kame et al. (2013) applied the Nagata law, which contains a stress weakening effect, to a similar model but found that the problem required a numerical solution.

Main observations from Kame et al. (2013) study:

1) Although the revised model produced greater seismicity and shortened delayed times, these improvements were only by a small factor compared to the disparities with natural observations that span several orders of magnitude.

2) Unlike the Dieterich model , in which a stress step always advances the timing of an earthquake, the revised model showed two different types of behavior. In most cases, the timing of the earthquake was advanced. However, if the stress step occurred at a specific time in the loading history of the fault , oscillatory slow slip cycles began, effectively delaying  the onset of the earthquake.


For more details on this study see:

Kame, Nobuki, et al. “Effects of a revised rate-and state-dependent friction law on aftershock triggering model.” Tectonophysics 600 (2013): 187-195.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004019511200755X

Other sources:

K. Nagata, M. Nakatani, and S. Yoshida. A revised rate- and state-dependent friction law obtained by constraining constitutive and evolution laws separately with laboratory data, 2012.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011JB008818/abstract

J.H. Dieterich. A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering, 1994. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/93JB02581/abstract

J.H. Dieterich. Modeling of rock friction 1. Experimental results and constitutive equations, 1979.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/JB084iB05p02161/abstract

More on Inverse Methods …

I found these articles/videos to be helpful in understanding how the different inversion techniques work that Chuck had talked about in class. Hopefully, you will find them useful as well.

Genetic Algorithm

http://www.ai-junkie.com/ga/intro/gat2.html

Simulated Annealing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tdsTfZMqAxw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iaq_Fpr4KZc

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0031920199001570

Monte Carlo Inversion

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1029/2000RG000089/asset/rog1559.pdf;jsessionid=7287C1CE73229D2541651D48A7BE6A84.f01t04v=1&t=i8eihb7a&s=679c56c98ee431899290e0571863ae83469d7cea

http://www.ipgp.fr/~tarantola/Files/Professional/Papers_PDF/MonteCarlo_latex.pdf

A brief summary of each method

Genetic Algorithms (GA’s) mimic mother nature in a sense; GA’s use the same combination of selection, recombination, and mutation to evolve a solution to a problem.  GA’s begin with a randomly generated population. Each member is evaluated and assigned a “fitness” score. The fittest members of the population are kept while the rest are discarded. New members are created by combining aspects of the selected, fittest members. Add a little bit of randomness (mutation) and repeat until the solution converges. One great thing about GA’s – they can avoid being trapped in a local minima unlike other optimization methods. Anyone who can offer an explanation as to why gets two high fives!

“The Simulated Annealing method works by approximating a global optimum solution for a solution space of interest. During each cycle (iteration), the algorithm tries to find a better solution than its current solution. It looks at immediate neighbors and determines what’s better instead of randomly searching through the solution space. One problem with this one- because the technique is greedy, the solution can frequently get trapped in local minima (premature convergence).

“Monte Carlo sampling is useful when the space of feasible solutions is to be explored, and measures of resolution and uncertainty of solution are needed.” With a Monte Carlo inversion, you would first need to identify a mathematical model of the process you want to explore. Next, define the parameters for each factor in your model and create random data according to those parameters. Lastly, simulate and analyze the output of your process. SA’s, GA’s, and Neighborhood Algorithms are Monte Carlo techniques. Monte Carlo methods are favored over linearization techniques for two reasons: “First, they are numerically more stable in the optimization/parameter search stage. Second, they are more reliable in estimating the uncertainty of the solution by means of model covariance and resolution matrices.”

http://www.ipgp.fr/~tarantola/Files/Professional/Papers_PDF/MonteCarlo_latex.pdf

The 2013 Great, Deep Sea of Okhotsk Earthquake (Mw 8.3)

On May 24th, 2013 the largest known deep earthquake (~600 km) with Mw 8.3 occurred beneath the Okhotsk sea. Such an event may reshape our understanding of deep earthquakes.  I don’t know many details about the nature of deep earthquakes, I’m wondering if the mineralogical phase change associated with the 660-km discontinuity could contribute to these deep events? The more generally accepted explanation for deep earthquakes is nucleation by a phase transition within the subducted material, for example:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/poster/2013/20130524.pdf

One interesting thing I found in the poster is that the shaking intensity distribution shows an interesting pattern. Can we use it to learn about the earth structure above the source?

Fire in the Hole: Recreating Volcanic Eruptions With Cannon Blasts

Recent volcanic eruptions have well documented using seismic, geodetic, infrasound and webcams networks. However, to understand the physical process behind eruptions scientists reproduce some of these process, like lava flows, lahars and most recently ash plumes. Here, I posted an experiment conducted from a scientific team of Universität Würzburg-Germany, Bari University-Italy and the University of Iceland to mimic ash clouds of Eyjafjallajökull 2010 eruption. This experiment allowed scientist calibrate their monitor devices for future eruptions.

https://eos.org/project-updates/fire-in-the-hole-recreating-volcanic-eruptions-with-cannon-blasts