Xavier Raufer

Our research institute at the University of Paris[1] diagnoses what we call “the dark side of globalization,” a concept broad enough, wide enough, and inclusive enough such that we do not miss any of the serious dangers posed in today’s or tomorrow’s world. Thus, we are concerned with detecting any and all mutating or evolving entities, say, from terrorism to organized crime.

First, a fundamental fact – and an extraordinary one indeed. Today for us in Europe, and for the first time in probably a thousand years, the question of who is the enemy is unclear, and that is likely to remain the case for the foreseeable future. In my generation, my father fought the Second World War. Both my grandfathers fought in the First World War. And if you asked them who the enemy was, they answered immediately and with one word. But now this question is utterly meaningless.

We are facing major threats in a chaotic world. To define them, to have a clear idea of their nature and persistence, is a terribly difficult exercise.

So let’s look at what really happens in Europe, as far as threats are concerned, and see if this gives us any positive, fruitful ideas. What do we see? And what does it mean?

1) Terrorism seems to be disappearing from Europe. Look at recent figures from EUROPOL, and they are sensational indeed. In 2006, there were approximately 600 terrorist attacks in the EU. In 2011, there were 174. 158 of them took place in three countries: France, Spain and the UK.[2] This means that 24 of the EU’s 27 countries have been, for the last 3 years, terrorism free. And next year’s figures will be even much lower, since at the end of 2011, the last serious European terrorist group, ETA in Spain, renounced its armed struggle. Remaining attacks in the UK are mainly from violent dissident Republicans, the “last of the Mohicans” in Northern Ireland; in France, from hybrid groups; and in Corsica, terrorists turned racketeers. These groups represent problems for law enforcement, certainly, but no longer pose any serious strategic threat.

Also look at the Muslim world: today even the most radical salafi reject terrorism and, from Tunisia to Egypt, countries rush to join – albeit in a disorderly fashion – the democratic process. This means that for the time being and in the shape and form we know, after 40 years of catastrophic “holy war” (where the only lasting success is a Shia one), known forms of terrorism have little future – the last cases of deadly attacks in Europe involving mostly lunatics or lone wolves.

In 2011, an even bigger development – not one single attack from Islamist jihadi groups.  Not one in 2011, three in 2010, one in 2009 (all figures from EUROPOL). So at least for us Europeans, the terrorist nightmare we lived since the end of the 1960s is fading away. Remember, this was our 4th terrorism wave: anarchists in the 1910s, Balkanic in the 1930s, Middle Eastern in the 1960-1970s and just after, jihadi terrorism starting after the terrible year that was 1979.

2) But this is not the only important fact as far as global security is concerned. In Europe we also see (not everywhere and not equally) an important decrease in the use of illicit drugs by the younger demographic of drug addicts. First in the UK, then in various countries, mainly in Western Europe, we see that the 16-24 age group is consuming far less cannabis, cocaine, heroin or ecstasy than before. In England, for instance, 90% of the youth participating in Rave parties took illicit drugs in 2007. Less than 50% of them did in 2011.

The same phenomenon is seen in France within the 17-24 age group, as it is in many European countries (though we should remember that this is only for the youngest drug addicts: drug addiction figures are worse for the 25-40 age group).

But for any market, young consumers are the future – and this has not escaped the big shots of the major cartels and mafias, who are now busy migrating to newer and more lucrative criminal activities. In addition, there will be a less attractive narcotics market, which means huge amounts of money missing. Let’s only consider the cannabis market for now: currently estimated at around 175 billion dollars a year, according to the UN. Minus 20% means 35 billion dollars will suddenly go missing. Do we really expect the big mafias and cartels to be happy with such looming financial disaster? This bleak future may of course mean a lot of dead bodies, but also a rush for new sources of profit.

So here is my question: ahead of us, down the road, it appears we are faced with less terrorism – so what will the terrorists become? Given that they are unlikely to oblige us with the kind of mass suicide we associate with the People’s Temple cult, what else are they likely to do?

For Europeans, there appear to be three major criminal markets and associated opportunities:

  • Dangerous counterfeit goods (i.e. items dangerous to public health, mostly counterfeit medicinal drugs, food or cosmetics),
  • Migration from the real world to the online world (i.e. cybercrime),
  • Corruption and looting associated with major sports, through fixing bets, etc. This represents enormous amounts of money (legal or illegal sports betting is around 200 billion dollars in recent years) and a very attractive situation for the bad guys, with the crime scene and the criminal him- or herself often ten thousand miles apart.

And it is into these markets that the “hybrids” come: ex-guerrillas, former terrorists, or fanatics investing in the criminal field, and the new criminal businesses.

This has already started in France. Consider the last 10 raids against counterfeit luxury brands in France: 6 specialized networks were discovered – all of them involving former jihadis from Algeria and Morocco. All of them are now in the production and trade of counterfeit bags and shoes – and no longer for jihad, for their cause, but for themselves.

This means that for the foreseeable future, we should closely look at a fascinating intersection, or nodal point, that are the mutating entities entering equally mutating criminal markets.

I view the top five faces of globalized crime as involving:

  1. Top – Criminal finance
  2. Bottom – Hybrid and mutant groups, mega-gangs, prison gangs, etc.
  3. Territories – Lawless neighborhoods and anarchic megacities
  4. Flows – Major trafficking and dangerous counterfeit goods
  5. Technology – Cybercrime and identity crime (data theft, etc.)

Given this context, my criminal forecast for the years to come (roughly, 2013 – 2020) will see the following developments:

  • Industrialization of mass counterfeit production, particularly with regard to capital-consuming “criminal manufacturing” (dangerous counterfeit goods, etc.);
  • Intensification in illegal trade coming into Europe, North America and developed parts of Asia;
  • Increasing hybridization between “politics” (guerrillas, armed gangs), “religion” (various forms of fanaticism, jihadists) and criminal trafficking in all its guises;
  • Flourishing cross-border crime, as always stemming from links between criminal fiefs and diasporas;
  • Mega-gangs and degenerate guerrillas holding greater sway over uncontrolled parts of the emerging world;
  • The criminal-hybrids keeping a tighter rein on the people from “their” diasporas who have emigrated to major developed centres, especially in lawless housing estates and neighborhoods;
  • A gradual weakening and criminal degeneration of the Salafi-jihadist movement, with a concurrent rise in “political” Salafism (Muslim Brotherhood);
  • Eco-terrorists’ ongoing ability to effectively harass their targets, but at the present level of danger, not more.

 


[1] Département de recherche sur les Menaces Criminelles Contemporaines (Department for the Study of the Contemporary Criminal Menace), Université Paris II, France, www.drmcc.org

[2] 2012’s figures are still being collected in the EU’s 27 nation-states – not a quick exercise. But first indications show that the total figure should be even lower than 2011.

 

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Xavier Raufer is the Director of Studies and Research in the Department for the Study of the Contemporary Criminal Menace at the University Panthéon-Assas in Paris. In addition, he is an Associate Professor at the Chinese People’s Public Security University and Beijing Political Sciences and Law University in Beijing and Shenyang, China. Dr. Raufer is the author and co-author of numerous books and articles on criminology and terrorism in the French language. These include Quelles guerres après Oussama ben Laden (Which Wars After Osama Bin Laden, 2011), Les Nouveaux Dangers Planétaires (The New Planetary Dangers, 2009), La Camorra, une mafia urbaine (The Camorra, an Urban Mafia, 2005), and Le grand réveil des mafias (The Great Awakening of Mafias, 2003). Dr. Raufer is also a frequent editorialist on criminal and terrorism matters for several websites and weekly magazines, including the Huffington Post (French edition), Atlantico, and Le Nouvel Économiste. He holds a doctorate in geography and geopolitics from the University of Paris-Sorbonne and a master’s degree in geopolitics and terrorism studies from the University of Marne-la-Vallée.

xraufer@drmcc.org

www.xavier-raufer.com

 

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