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Final Four Predictions

In a shocking, earth-shattering twist of events, March continues to be the most boring month of the NBA season.

Man, I cannot stress how colorless March has been for me – not just as a blogger, but as an NBA fanatic. I know I mentioned my frustrations in last week’s entry, but with the majority of the playoff picture set, and seasoned talents resting to give younger players the opportunity to develop, I honestly don’t know what to do. I’ve pretty much tuned out NBA news at this point.

Thankfully, I still have college hoops. The final four – AKA, the semifinals of March Madness – is this Saturday, featuring two marquee match-ups: Gonzaga and South Carolina, which tips off at 6:09 pm ET, and later, Oregon vs. UNC at 8:49 pm.

This year’s final four crew is unprecedented by historical standards. Two of the remaining teams, Gonzaga and South Carolina, have never made it this far in the bracket, while Oregon’s last final four appearance was in 1939, the first year the tournament was held.

In anticipation of this weekend, I thought I’d write about my picks for Saturday’s games. Predicting March games is never a simple process – Lord knows how awful my bracket turned out – but I thought I’d offer myself a chance at redemption. So sit back, relax, and brace yourself for the madness this is about to unfold. The final four is officially here.

Gonzaga vs. South Carolina

Gonzaga and SC is a storybook showdown for the ages. Two teams, who have never made the final four, pitted against each other for a chance at March glory. I couldn’t have written a better script myself.

South Carolina has been led by ice-cold killer Sindarius Thornwell, who’s arguably been the best player in the tournament up to date. He’s currently averaging 25.7 points and 7.5 rebounds per game, and has served as the floor general for the Gamecock’s havoc-wreaking defense, sporting an elite 88.4 defensive rating. If he continues his dominant play, SC will have a legitimate chance for a run at the championship.

South Carolina must also perform the way it has on defense during March. For the first four rounds of play, South Carolina beat its opponents through complex defensive sets, thriving in creating unforced errors and frustration for opposing players. In fact, SC boasts the second best defensive rating in college hoops, at 87.6.

Unfortunately, the only team ranked ahead of them happens to be the one they’re facing.

According to KenPom, Gonzaga has a 86.0 adjusted defensive efficiency rating, good for first in the nation. They’re a very disciplined unit, refusing to allow easy baskets in the paint and minimizing open layups. As such, the Gamecocks will struggle to attack the basket.

Gonzaga is also built to handle South Carolina’s half-court pressure-man defense. Admittedly, against West Virginia in the second round, the Bulldogs played erratically, which allowed WVU’s guards to effectively neutralize Gonzaga star Nigel Williams-Goss. Nonetheless, Gonzaga typically runs a composed offense (they sport a 14.1 turnover percentage), and it’s unlikely that it will fall prey South Carolina’s traps.

South Carolina is the closest thing that this tourney has to a Cinderella team, but, as much as I’m rooting for them, it’s hard to bet against the Bulldogs’ stingy defense and poised play. Expect the Zags to move on to Monday’s national title game.

Prediction: Gonzaga 67, South Carolina 60

Oregon vs. North Carolina

Roy Williams has 520 minutes of experience under his belt coaching in the final four. Dana Altman has never coached a final four game in his life.

Right now, though, none of that matters. Both North Carolina and Oregon are offensive powerhouses, and each squad will have to bring its A-game if it wants to advance.

After losing stretch forward Chris Boucher to a season-ending injury, Oregon was not expected to make it this far. They weren’t supposed to beat Michigan. They weren’t supposed to thrash number 1 seed Kansas. Hell, I actually had them losing to Rhode Island in the round of 32 (another reason to never trust my bracket).

But here they are. The Ducks are in the final four, and they are ready to make some noise.

So far, Oregon’s greatest tournament strength has been its three point shot. In last week’s elite eight bout, Oregon dismantled the Jayhawks’ entire defensive scheme, shooting 44 percent from downtown and stretching the floor in the half court. Overall, the Ducks are launching threes at a tournament best 43.2 percent clip, thanks in large part to sophomore standout Tyler “Mr. March” Dorsey.

Additionally, Oregon has found a firm defensive anchor in Jordan Bell. Through four tournament games, Bell is averaging a double-double with 3.0 blocks per game, including a stellar 8 block performance against Kansas. His rim-protection is a significant reason that his team is still standing.

Defeating UNC, however, will be no small task. The Tar Heels are an incredibly fast and well-paced offensive machine, averaging an NCAA 7th best 116.8 points per 100 possessions. Strategically, Altman has to find a way to contain point guard Joel Berry and wing Justin Jackson, who has scored 19.8 points per game in March, to keep the game competitive.

Beyond the starting lineups, North Carolina holds a clear advantage of Oregon in depth. Luke Maye, the Tar Heel’s breakout role player, has emerged as an x-factor for UNC; he’s knocking down perimeter shots and hit the game-winning dagger against Kentucky to win the Memphis region. On the other hand, without Boucher, the Ducks don’t have a go-to offensive weapon coming off the bench, meaning they’ll have to rely on less proven players to stay poised on the big stage.

I have a strong feeling that this game will come down to the wire, and the team that hits the last big-time shot will come out on top.

This one is going to be a nail-biter.

Prediction: Oregon 77, UNC 71

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