2014 Philadelphia Conference Presentations

Papers (Friday, October 10)
— Room 100 —
9:00 Halvard Buhaug, Elisabeth Gilmore, Jonas Nordkvelle and Stephanie Waldhoff, Forecasting Armed Conflict Along the ‘Shared Socio-Economic Pathways.’

2:30 Martin Steinwand and Nils Metternich, Who Joins and Who Fights? A Unified Network Approach to Predict Collaboration and Competition Between Violent Groups

4:00 Joshua Kertzer and Ryan Brutger, Decomposing Audience Costs: Bringing the Audience Back Into Audience Cost Theory

4:30 Roseanne McManus, A Time to Speak: When Do Leaders Choose to Make Statements of Resolve?

5:00 Ryan Brutger, What Audiences Really Want: The Effect of Compromise on Domestic Audience Costs

— Room 218 —
09:00 Jessica Maves Braithwaite and Kirssa Cline Ryckman, Don’t Change Horses in Midstream: Ruling Coalition Changes and the Duration and Termination of Civil Wars

9:30 Kathleen Cunningham and Katherine Sawyer, Rebel Leader Selection, Legitimacy and Civil War Termination

11:00 Robert Carroll, Civil War in the Shadow of Intervention

2:30 Clayton Webb, Shorting Economic Sanctions: Economic Pressure and Financial Markets

3:00 William Spaniel and Bradley Smith, Sanctions, Uncertainty, and Leader Tenure

4:30 Sambuddha Ghatak and Brandon C. Prins, Minority Economic Discrimination, Development, Democracy and Domestic Terrorism

5:00 Navin Bapat and Rebecca Best, The Rise of Extremism in Terrorist Movements: Negotiation and the Internal Commitment Problem

— Room 223 —
9:30 Meredith Blank and Laura Seago, Organized Violence Against Organized Labor: Paramilitaries and Anti-Union Violence in Colombia

10:00 Mark Nieman, Explaining Variation in Protesters’ Commitment: Survey Evidence from the EuroMaidan Protesters in Ukraine, 2013-2014

11:00 Rupal Mehta, Determinants of Nuclear Reversal: Why States Give Up Nuclear Weapons

2:30 Sukwon Lee and Alastair Smith, Forming Alliances or Arming: The Impact of Domestic Politics in Extended Deterrence

4:00 Paul Poast and Yonatan Lupu, Alliances as Conflict Managers

4:30 Sara McLaughlin-Mitchell and Andrew Owsiak, Conflict Management Regimes: Why Strategies Vary Across Different Geopolitical Issues

5:00 Matthew Fuhrmann and Todd Sechser, Moral Hazard or Prescription for Peace? Nuclear Alliance Commitments and the Conflict Behavior of Protégés

Papers (Saturday, October 10)
— Room 100 —
8:30 Burcu Savun and Daniel Tirone, Foreign Aid as a Counterterrorism Tool: Can Democracy Aid Reduce Terrorism?

9:00 Jeff Carter, Heather Ondercin, and Glenn Palmer, The Dynamics of Interstate War Finance

10:00 Rosella Cappella and Paul Poast, Financial Intervention in Conflict: American Extension of Interstate Loans to War Fighting States

2:00 Shweta Moorthy, Thorin Wright and Reed Wood, Refugee Inflows and Host State Repression

2:30 Matthew Wells, Securing the Troops or Securing the Population? The Effects of Counterinsurgency Operations under Occupation

3:00 Corinne Bara, Weak States and Bad Neighborhoods: How Ethnic Conflicts Spread Across Borders

— Room 218 —
9:00 Shawn Ramirez, Secret Bargaining and War: The Case for `Open Covenants of Peace, Secretly Arrived At’

10:00 Scott Wolford, A Theory of Neutrality Rights in War

11:00 Jillienne Haglund, Generating Executive Incentives: The Role of Domestic Politics in International Human Rights Court Effectiveness

11:30 Patricia Sullivan and Ghazal Dezfuli, Civil War Strategies, War Outcomes, and Human Security in Post-Conflict Societies

— Room 223 —
8:30 Erica Chenoweth and Tanisha Fazal, The Secessionists’ Dilemma

9:30 Paola Palacios, Land Use and the Incidence of Violence

11:00 Graig Klein and Nicholas Tatonetti, Predicting Armed Conflict Using Machine Learning

12:00 Benjamin Jones and Shawna Metzger, Evaluating Conflict Dynamics: Many Conceptualizations, A Novel Empirical Approach

2:00 Jaroslav Tir, Does It Pay To Play? The Heterogeneous Effects of Militarized International Disputes on Electoral Support for the Incumbent

Posters (Saturday, October 11)

Johannes Karreth, Joshua Strayhorn and Jaroslav Tir, “Inviting Rebellion? Intergovernmental Organizations, Opposition Movements, and Low-Level Violence in Intrastate Conflicts.”

Hye Sung Kim and Robert Carroll, “Revisiting the State Capacity Hypothesis of Civil War: Applying a Split Population Binary Choice Model.”

Carla Martinez Machain and Jared Oestman, “Does Counterterrorism Militarize Foreign Aid?”

R. Blake McMahon, “Protecting the State: A General Equilibrium Model of State Security.”

Masaki Sakamoto, “Grouping States: Community Detection Method in International Relations.”

Peter White, “War Controls Warriors? Civil-Military Bargaining, the Threat of War, and the Path to Civilian Control.”

Jungmoo Woo, “Authoritarian Regime Survival and the Oil Network.”

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