Presentations
Friday, October 21, 9 AM |
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Room A (102)Chair: Jesse Johnson |
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| 9:00 | Sheldon Levy Information Bias, Surveillance and the Psychological Effects on the Likelihood of Internal and External Conflict |
| 9:30 | Baekkwan Park, Kevin Greene and Michael Colaresi The Ups and Downs of Human Rights: Using Aspect-based Sentiment Analysis and Document Meta-data to Explore Information Effects in Human Rights Reports |
| 10:00 | Muhammet A. Bas and Omer Faruk Orsun Outcome Uncertainty: A New Measure |
Room B (112)Chair: Jeff Dixon |
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| 9:00 | Meredith Blank and Paul Johnson Arming or Educating: The Role of Civic Militias in New Regimes |
| 9:30 | Jonathan Powell and Rebecca Schiel U.S. Military Assistance and Democratization in the Shadow of Coups |
| 10:00 | Max Margulies and Jessica Stanton Designing Inclusive Militaries: Variation in Military Power-Sharing Arrangements after Civil War |
Room C (210)Chair: Burcu Savun |
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| 9:00 | Cyanne Loyle Without a Trace: Enforced Disappearance as a Strategy during Armed Conflict |
| 9:30 | Sara Polo The Continuation of War by Other Means: Terrorism in Civil Wars |
| 10:00 | Christopher Butler, Scott Gates, and Siri Rustad Forces of Darkness: Proto-states, Armed Conflict, and Resource Allocation |
Friday, October 21, 11 AM |
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Room A (102)Chair: Jule Krüger |
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| 11:00 | Danielle Jung Understanding Post Conflict Attitudes about Violence and Political Contestation |
| 11:30 | Lucia Tiscornia Lethal Weapons: Post-conflict Police Reform and Criminal Violence |
| 12:00 | Annekatrin Deglow Localized Legacies of Civil War: Post-war Violent Crime in Northern Ireland |
Room B (112)Chair: Jeff Carter |
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| 11:00 | Michaela Mattes and Jessica Weeks Hawks, Doves, and Peace: An Experimental Approach |
| 11:30 | Cathy Wu Learning Audience’s Resolve: Endogenous Publicity and Crisis Bargaining |
| 12:00 | Michael Poznansky and Michael Joseph Pants on Fire: Audience Costs and Presidential Lying on Foreign Policy |
Room C (210)Chair: Szymon Stojek |
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| 11:00 | Gudrun Østby, Siri Aas Rustad, and Henrik Urdal Development Aid and Infant Mortality: Micro-level Evidence from Nigeria |
| 11:30 | Barnett Koven Keeping up with the Joneses: Development Assistance and the Diffusion of Insurgent Violence in Iraq |
| 12:00 | Tricia Sullivan Arming the Opposition: Long-term Impacts of Providing Lethal Aid to Non-state Actors |
Friday, October 21, 2 PM |
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Room A (102)Chair: Michael Tyburski |
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| 2:00 | Anita Ravishankar Re-establishing the Social Contract? The Enduring Effects of State Repression on Trust in State Security Institutions |
| 2:30 | Sarah Daly Explaining the Success of Rebel and Militia Successor Parties |
| 3:00 | Richard Frank Election Violence in the Aftermath of Civil War: The Case of Nepal |
Room B (112)Chair: Emilia Powell |
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| 2:00 | Sara Mitchell Kantian Dynamics Revisited: Time Varying Analyses of Dyadic IGO-Conflict Relationships |
| 2:30 | Bella Wang Salami-Slicing and Land Grabs in Territorial Disputes |
| 3:00 | Alyssa Prorok and Deniz Cil Revisiting the Sustainable Settlement of Civil Wars: Leaders and the Implementation of Settlement Agreements |
Room C (210)Chair: Mark Nieman |
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| 2:00 | Erica Chenoweth, Michael Horowitz, and Evan Perkoski Honor among Thieves: Understanding Cooperation and Conflict among Violent Non-State Actors |
| 2:30 | Chelsea Estancona The Rebels’ Resource Curse |
| 3:00 | Victoria McGroary and Consuelo Amat The Ties that Bind: Rebel Group Cohesion through Social Service Provision |
Friday, October 21, 4 PM |
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Room A (102)Chair: Michaela Mattes |
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| 4:00 | Katja Kleinberg and Benjamin Fordham Elite Opinion and the Domestic Origins of International Rivalry |
| 4:30 | Daehee Bak and Toby Rider Domestic Consequences of International Rivalry |
| 5:00 | Colin Krainin and Kristopher Ramsay Who Wins the Peace? Elites, Citizens, and the Decision to Go to War |
| 5:30 | Gennady Rudkevich and John Vasquez Peaceful Non-Democratic Dyads: Who are They? Why Don’t They Go to War? |
Room B (112)Chair: Erik Gartzke |
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| 4:00 | Rupal Mehta and Rachel Whitlark The Determinants of Nuclear Latency |
| 4:30 | Abigail Post and Todd Sechser Hidden Norms in International Relations: Elites, Public Opinion, and Nuclear Weapons |
| 5:00 | Charles Boehmer and Renato Corbetta Networks of Hard International Law Based Organizations and Interstate Cooperation |
| 5:30 | James Morrow and Kevin Cope Negotiating the ICC |
Room C (210)Chair: Clayton Thyne |
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| 4:00 | Lisa Hultman Ethnic Constituencies at Risk? Ethnic Exclusion and Collective Targeting in Civil War |
| 4:30 | Nils-Christian Bormann and Martin Steinwand Power-Sharing Coalitions and Ethnic Civil War |
| 5:00 | Nils Hagerdal Ethnic Cleansing as Military Strategy: Lessons from Lebanon, 1975-1990 |
| 5:30 | Nils Metternich Inequality Between and Within Ethnic Groups in Autocracies and the Escalation of Conflict |
Saturday, October 22, 8:30 AM |
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Room A (102)Chair: Faten Ghosn |
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| 8:30 | Desirée Nilsson Negotiating Religious Conflicts: Conflict Resolution and the Global Patterns of Religiously Defined Armed Conflicts |
| 9:00 | Elizabeth Menninga Selecting into Mediation: Exploring Multiparty Mediation Onset and its Characteristics |
| 9:30 | Shanna Kirschner Does Peacekeeping Really Bring Peace? Effects beyond Killing |
| 10:00 | Hannah Smidt Making Electoral Peace: How Peacekeeping Activities Influence Electoral Violence |
Room B (112)Chair: Thorin Wright |
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| 8:30 | Burcu Savun and Christian Gineste From Protection to Persecution: The Determinants of State Violence against Refugees |
| 9:00 | Rob Williams, Daniel Gustafson, and Navin Bapat Terrorism and Territorial Aggression |
| 9:30 | Gary Uzonyi Rebel Capacity, Government Uncertainty, and Atrocity during Civil War |
| 10:00 | Eric Min Negotiation in War |
Room C (210)Chair: Steven Miller |
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| 8:30 | Kelly Kadera, Laura Sjoberg, and Cameron Thies Complicating the Feminist Peace |
| 9:00 | Wilfred Chow Autocratic vs. Democratic Targets: Female Leaders and the Initiation of International Conflict |
| 9:30 | Patrick James Decision-making in U.S. Foreign Policy Crises: Presidential Leadership and Outcomes (paper) |
| 10:00 | Raymond Dacey The Influences of the Probabilities and Levels of Post-Tenure Punishment on Crisis Behavior |
Saturday, October 22, 11 AM |
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Room A (102)Chair: Chris Linebarger |
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| 11:00 | David Cunningham and Eric Dunford An Automated Aggregation of Geo-coded Violent and Non-violent Conflict Events |
| 11:30 | Michael Kenwick Is Civilian Control Self-reinforcing? A Measurement Based Analysis of Civil-Military Relations |
| 12:00 | Muhammet Bas Probabilistic Democracy |
Room B (112)Chair: Carla Martinez Machain |
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| 11:00 | Tanisha Fazal, and Minju Kwon Naming, Shaming, and the Laws of War: When the ICRC Violates Discretion and Goes Public |
| 11:30 | Petra Hendrickson Turnover Spillover |
| 12:00 | Melissa Lee What Determines Public Support for International Norm Enforcement? |
Room C (210)Chair: Nazli Avdan |
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| 11:00 | Idean Salehyan and Vito D’Orazio Who is a Terrorist? Ethnicity, Group Affiliation, and Understandings of Violence |
| 11:30 | Megan Stewart Foreign Policy Preferences and Support for Rebel Groups? Evidence from Survey Experiments in the U.S. and India |
| 12:00 | Andrew Shaver Employment Status and Support for Wartime Violence: Evidence from the Iraq War |
Saturday, October 22, 2 PM |
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Room A (102)Chair: Cliff Morgan |
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| 2:00 | Rosella Cappella Zielinski and Ryan Grauer Allied in Combat: Alliance Organization and Battlefield Performance |
| 2:30 | Olga Chyzh A Local Structure Graph Approach to Modeling Spatial Dependence in Alliance Formation |
3:00 |
Resat Bayer and Omer Faruk Orsun Political Shocks and Trade |
| 3:30 | Matthew Fuhrmann When Do Leaders Free-Ride? Evidence from the Fulfillment of Alliance Promises |
Room B (112)Chair: Andrew Owsiak |
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| 2:00 | William Spaniel Outbidding as Deterrence: Endogenous Demands in the Shadow of Group Competition |
| 2:30 | Andrew Boutton Coup-proofing in the Shadow of a Superpower: External Security Assistance, Domestic Power Consolidation, and Conflict |
| 3:00 | Wonjun Song Personalization of the Security Apparatus and Prospects of Autocratic Regime Change |
| 3:30 | Orlandrew Danzell and Daniel Irwin Tipping Point: Measuring the Impact of Refugees on Incidence of Terrorism |
Room C (210)Chair: Andrew Long |
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| 2:00 | Monika Nalepa and Milena Ang Transitional Justice and Programmatic Representation |
| 2:30 | Christopher Cyr Women’s Work after the War: Evidence from Firm-level Dataset in Somaliland |
| 3:00 | Matthew Nanes Sectarian Policing, Attachments to the State, and Support for Violence: Evidence from Iraq |
| 3:30 | Sabrina Karim Building Trust in Remote Post-conflict Communities: A Randomized Control Trial of Police Visits in Rural Liberia |
Posters |
| Julian Wucherpfennig
Evaluating Endogenous Policies: Power Sharing in the Face of Civil War |
| Zuhaib Mahmood and Michael Colaresi
Tracking State Interests and the Dimensionality of World Politics in High Resolution Using UN General Assembly Speeches, 1993-2015 |
| Leah Cathryn Windsor
The Language of Crisis and Transition in Authoritarian Regimes |
| Julia Leib
The Post-conflict Peace Scale: Conceptualizing Peace in the Aftermath of Violent Conflict |
| Minnie Minhyung Joo
Shall We Talk? Modeling Negotiation as a Signaling Game between Rebel Groups and Governments |
| Kara Neu
Military Defections during Protest and Their Relationship to Democratization |
| Steven McDowell
Catalysts, Background Conditions, and the Timing of Litigation in Territorial Conflict |
| Duu Renn
The Participation Gap: The Role of Ex-Belligerents in Post – Civil War Elections |
| Jillienne Haglund |
| Anne Anderson
The Effect of Third Party Intervention on Post- Civil War Economic Recovery |
| Laura Huber
An Open Door: Conflict and International Gender Mainstreaming |
| Gina Miller and Ryan Welch
The Psychological Effects of Socialization: IGO Membership and Respect for Human Rights |
| Anita Gohdes
Women Combatants and the Politics of Gender-Based Repression in the Syrian Conflict |
| Aaron Shreve
Boys and Their Toys: Leader’s Prestige and the Import of Major Weapon Systems |
| Zhanna Terechshenko, Charles Crabtree, Kristine Eck, and Christopher J. Fariss |
| Brandon Stewart
Ethnic Social Conflict and Voting Behavior: Does the Empirical Record Match the Anecdotal Evidence? |
| Jacqueline DeMeritt
Death Squads as Agents of Repression: Insights and Evidence from Hitler Einsatzgruppen |
| Ted Hsuan Yun Chen, Chuyu Liu, and Kevin Reuning
How Does the Historical Legacy of Local Level Casualties Affect Public Opinion of War? |
| Sangmi Jeong and Alex Braithwaite
Strength Lies in Difference? Societal Diversity, Campaign Diversity, and Nonviolent Resistance |
| Charles Dainoff
Money is the Sinews of Chaos: Banking Secrecy, Violent Non-State Actors, and State Stability |
| Krista Wiegand, Aaron Gold, and Eric Keels
Contentious Issues and Mediation Success in Civil Conflicts |
| Babak Rezaee Daryakenari, Steven Landis, and Cameron Thies
Climate Change, Food Price Volatility, and Rebel Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Luba Levin-Banchik
When They Don’t Fight, How Do They Interact? Analysis of Waiting Times in Ending Rivalries, 1945-2010 |
| Eric Keels
Commitment Problems and Election Violence Following Negotiated Settlements |
| Paul Bezerra
Asymmetric Aid Relations and Differential Foreign Policy Cooperation |
| Todd Lehmann and Yuri Zhukov
Until the Bitter End? The Diffusion of Desertion and Surrender across Battles |