2016 Presentation Slides and Posters


Friday, October 21, 9 AM

Room  A (102)

Chair: Jesse Johnson

9:00 Sheldon Levy
Information Bias, Surveillance and the Psychological Effects on the Likelihood of Internal and External Conflict
9:30 Baekkwan Park, Kevin Greene and Michael Colaresi
The Ups and Downs of Human Rights: Using Aspect-based Sentiment Analysis and Document Meta-data to Explore Information Effects in Human Rights Reports
10:00 Muhammet A. Bas and Omer Faruk Orsun
Outcome Uncertainty: A New Measure
Room B (112)

Chair: Jeff Dixon

9:00 Meredith Blank and Paul Johnson
Arming or Educating: The Role of Civic Militias in New Regimes
9:30 Jonathan Powell and Rebecca Schiel
U.S. Military Assistance and Democratization in the Shadow of Coups
10:00 Max Margulies and Jessica Stanton
Designing Inclusive Militaries: Variation in Military Power-Sharing Arrangements after Civil War
Room C (210)

Chair: Burcu Savun

9:00 Cyanne Loyle
Without a Trace: Enforced Disappearance as a Strategy during Armed Conflict
9:30 Sara Polo
The Continuation of War by Other Means: Terrorism in Civil Wars
10:00 Christopher Butler, Scott Gates, and Siri Rustad
Forces of Darkness: Proto-states, Armed Conflict, and Resource Allocation

Friday, October 21, 11 AM

Room  A (102)

Chair: Jule Krüger

11:00 Danielle Jung
Understanding Post Conflict Attitudes about Violence and Political Contestation
11:30 Lucia Tiscornia
Lethal Weapons: Post-conflict Police Reform and Criminal Violence
12:00 Annekatrin Deglow
Localized Legacies of Civil War: Post-war Violent Crime in Northern Ireland
Room B (112)

Chair: Jeff Carter

11:00 Michaela Mattes and Jessica Weeks
Hawks, Doves, and Peace: An Experimental Approach
11:30 Cathy Wu
Learning Audience’s Resolve: Endogenous Publicity and Crisis Bargaining
12:00 Michael Poznansky and Michael Joseph
Pants on Fire: Audience Costs and Presidential Lying on Foreign Policy
Room C (210)

Chair: Szymon Stojek

11:00 Gudrun Østby, Siri Aas Rustad, and Henrik Urdal
Development Aid and Infant Mortality: Micro-level Evidence from Nigeria
11:30 Barnett Koven
Keeping up with the Joneses: Development Assistance and the
Diffusion of Insurgent Violence in Iraq
12:00 Tricia Sullivan
Arming the Opposition: Long-term Impacts of Providing Lethal Aid to Non-state Actors

Friday, October 21, 2 PM

Room  A (102)

Chair: Michael Tyburski

2:00 Anita Ravishankar
Re-establishing the Social Contract? The Enduring Effects of State Repression on Trust in State Security Institutions
2:30 Sarah Daly
Explaining the Success of Rebel and Militia Successor Parties
3:00 Richard Frank
Election Violence in the Aftermath of Civil War: The Case of Nepal
Room B (112)

Chair: Emilia Powell

2:00 Sara Mitchell
Kantian Dynamics Revisited: Time Varying Analyses of Dyadic IGO-Conflict Relationships
2:30 Bella Wang
Salami-Slicing and Land Grabs in Territorial Disputes
3:00 Alyssa Prorok and Deniz Cil
Revisiting the Sustainable Settlement of Civil Wars: Leaders and the Implementation of Settlement Agreements
Room C (210)

Chair: Mark Nieman

2:00 Erica Chenoweth, Michael Horowitz, and Evan Perkoski
Honor among Thieves: Understanding Cooperation and Conflict among Violent Non-State Actors
2:30 Chelsea Estancona
The Rebels’ Resource Curse
3:00 Victoria McGroary and Consuelo Amat
The Ties that Bind: Rebel Group Cohesion through Social Service Provision

Friday, October 21, 4 PM

Room  A (102)

Chair: Michaela Mattes

4:00 Katja Kleinberg and Benjamin Fordham
Elite Opinion and the Domestic Origins of International Rivalry
4:30 Daehee Bak and Toby Rider
Domestic Consequences of International Rivalry
5:00 Colin Krainin and Kristopher Ramsay
Who Wins the Peace? Elites, Citizens, and the Decision to Go to War
5:30 Gennady Rudkevich and John Vasquez
Peaceful Non-Democratic Dyads: Who are They? Why Don’t They Go to War?
Room B (112)

Chair: Erik Gartzke

4:00 Rupal Mehta and Rachel Whitlark
The Determinants of Nuclear Latency
4:30 Abigail Post and Todd Sechser
Hidden Norms in International Relations: Elites, Public Opinion, and Nuclear Weapons
5:00 Charles Boehmer and Renato Corbetta
Networks of Hard International Law Based Organizations and Interstate Cooperation
5:30 James Morrow and Kevin Cope
Negotiating the ICC
Room C (210)

Chair: Clayton Thyne

4:00 Lisa Hultman
Ethnic Constituencies at Risk? Ethnic Exclusion and Collective Targeting in Civil War
4:30 Nils-Christian Bormann and Martin Steinwand
Power-Sharing Coalitions and Ethnic Civil War
5:00 Nils Hagerdal
Ethnic Cleansing as Military Strategy: Lessons from Lebanon, 1975-1990
5:30 Nils Metternich
Inequality Between and Within Ethnic Groups in Autocracies and the Escalation of Conflict

Saturday, October 22, 8:30 AM

Room  A (102)

Chair: Faten Ghosn

8:30 Desirée Nilsson
Negotiating Religious Conflicts: Conflict Resolution and the Global Patterns of Religiously Defined Armed Conflicts
9:00 Elizabeth Menninga
Selecting into Mediation: Exploring Multiparty Mediation Onset and its Characteristics
9:30 Shanna Kirschner
Does Peacekeeping Really Bring Peace? Effects beyond Killing
10:00 Hannah Smidt
Making Electoral Peace: How Peacekeeping Activities Influence Electoral Violence
Room B (112)

Chair: Thorin Wright

8:30 Burcu Savun and Christian Gineste
From Protection to Persecution: The Determinants of State Violence against Refugees
9:00 Rob Williams, Daniel Gustafson, and Navin Bapat
Terrorism and Territorial Aggression
9:30 Gary Uzonyi
Rebel Capacity, Government Uncertainty, and Atrocity during Civil War
10:00 Eric Min
Negotiation in War
Room C (210)

Chair: Steven Miller

8:30 Kelly Kadera, Laura Sjoberg, and Cameron Thies
Complicating the Feminist Peace
9:00 Wilfred Chow
Autocratic vs. Democratic Targets: Female Leaders and the Initiation of International Conflict
9:30 Patrick James 
Decision-making in U.S. Foreign Policy Crises: Presidential Leadership and Outcomes (paper)
10:00 Raymond Dacey
The Influences of the Probabilities and Levels of Post-Tenure Punishment on Crisis Behavior

Saturday, October 22, 11 AM

Room  A (102)

Chair: Chris Linebarger

11:00 David Cunningham and Eric Dunford
An Automated Aggregation of Geo-coded Violent and Non-violent Conflict Events
11:30 Michael Kenwick
Is Civilian Control Self-reinforcing? A Measurement Based Analysis of Civil-Military Relations
12:00 Muhammet Bas
Probabilistic Democracy
Room B (112)

Chair: Carla Martinez Machain

11:00 Tanisha Fazal, and Minju Kwon
Naming, Shaming, and the Laws of War: When the ICRC Violates Discretion and Goes Public
11:30 Petra Hendrickson
Turnover Spillover
12:00 Melissa Lee
What Determines Public Support for International Norm Enforcement?
Room C (210)

Chair: Nazli Avdan

11:00 Idean Salehyan and Vito D’Orazio
Who is a Terrorist? Ethnicity, Group Affiliation, and Understandings of Violence
11:30 Megan Stewart
Foreign Policy Preferences and Support for Rebel Groups? Evidence from Survey Experiments in the U.S. and India
12:00 Andrew Shaver
Employment Status and Support for Wartime Violence: Evidence from the Iraq War

Saturday, October 22, 2 PM

Room  A (102)

Chair: Cliff Morgan

2:00 Rosella Cappella Zielinski and Ryan Grauer
Allied in Combat: Alliance Organization and Battlefield Performance
2:30 Olga Chyzh
A Local Structure Graph Approach to Modeling Spatial Dependence in Alliance Formation
Resat Bayer and Omer Faruk Orsun
Political Shocks and Trade
3:30 Matthew Fuhrmann
When Do Leaders Free-Ride? Evidence from the Fulfillment of Alliance Promises
Room B (112)

Chair: Andrew Owsiak

2:00 William Spaniel
Outbidding as Deterrence: Endogenous Demands in the Shadow of Group Competition
2:30 Andrew Boutton
Coup-proofing in the Shadow of a Superpower: External Security Assistance, Domestic Power Consolidation, and Conflict
3:00 Wonjun Song
Personalization of the Security Apparatus and Prospects of Autocratic Regime Change
3:30 Orlandrew Danzell and Daniel Irwin
Tipping Point: Measuring the Impact of Refugees on Incidence of Terrorism
Room C (210)

Chair: Andrew Long

2:00 Monika Nalepa and Milena Ang
Transitional Justice and Programmatic Representation
2:30 Christopher Cyr
Women’s Work after the War: Evidence from Firm-level Dataset in Somaliland
3:00 Matthew Nanes
Sectarian Policing, Attachments to the State, and Support for Violence: Evidence from Iraq
3:30 Sabrina Karim
Building Trust in Remote Post-conflict Communities: A Randomized Control Trial of Police Visits in Rural Liberia


Julian Wucherpfennig

Evaluating Endogenous Policies: Power Sharing in the Face of Civil War

Zuhaib Mahmood and Michael Colaresi

Tracking State Interests and the Dimensionality of World Politics in High Resolution Using UN General Assembly Speeches, 1993-2015

Leah Cathryn Windsor

The Language of Crisis and Transition in Authoritarian Regimes

Julia Leib

The Post-conflict Peace Scale: Conceptualizing Peace in the Aftermath of Violent Conflict

Minnie Minhyung Joo

Shall We Talk? Modeling Negotiation as a Signaling Game between Rebel Groups and Governments

Kara Neu

Military Defections during Protest and Their Relationship to Democratization

Steven McDowell

Catalysts, Background Conditions, and the Timing of Litigation in Territorial Conflict

Duu Renn

The Participation Gap: The Role of Ex-Belligerents in Post – Civil War Elections

Jillienne Haglund

Overlapping International Human Rights Institutions: Juggling Multiple Human Rights Commitments in Europe

Anne Anderson

The Effect of Third Party Intervention on Post- Civil War Economic Recovery

Laura Huber

An Open Door: Conflict and International Gender Mainstreaming

Gina Miller and Ryan Welch

The Psychological Effects of Socialization: IGO Membership and Respect for Human Rights

Anita Gohdes

Women Combatants and the Politics of Gender-Based Repression in the Syrian Conflict

Aaron Shreve

Boys and Their Toys: Leader’s Prestige and the Import of Major Weapon Systems

Zhanna Terechshenko, Charles Crabtree, Kristine Eck,  and Christopher J. Fariss

Examining the Influence of International Norms and Sanctioning on State Respect for Prisoners’ Rights: A Field Experiment with Foreign Missions

Brandon Stewart

Ethnic Social Conflict and Voting Behavior: Does the Empirical Record Match the Anecdotal Evidence?

Jacqueline DeMeritt

Death Squads as Agents of Repression: Insights and Evidence from Hitler Einsatzgruppen

Ted Hsuan Yun Chen, Chuyu Liu, and Kevin Reuning

How Does the Historical Legacy of Local Level Casualties Affect Public Opinion of War?

Sangmi Jeong and Alex Braithwaite

Strength Lies in Difference? Societal Diversity, Campaign Diversity, and Nonviolent Resistance

Charles Dainoff

Money is the Sinews of Chaos: Banking Secrecy, Violent Non-State Actors, and State Stability

Krista Wiegand, Aaron Gold, and Eric Keels

Contentious Issues and Mediation Success in Civil Conflicts

Babak Rezaee Daryakenari, Steven Landis, and Cameron Thies

Climate Change, Food Price Volatility, and Rebel Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa

Luba Levin-Banchik

When They Don’t Fight, How Do They Interact? Analysis of Waiting Times in Ending Rivalries, 1945-2010

Eric Keels

Commitment Problems and Election Violence Following Negotiated Settlements

Paul Bezerra

Asymmetric Aid Relations and Differential Foreign Policy Cooperation

Todd Lehmann and Yuri Zhukov

Until the Bitter End? The Diffusion of Desertion and Surrender across Battles

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