Published research

2024

The Origins of Elected Strongmen
Oxford University Press (with Erica Frantz and Andrea Kendall-Taylor)
Reproduction files

2023

How Personalist Parties Undermine State Capacity
Comparative Political Studies (with Jia Li)
Reproduction files             Pre-print with Appendix

How to Sharpen a Nonviolent Movement
Journal of Democracy (with Sophia McClennen and Srđa Popović)
Reproduction files             Pre-print with Appendix

Personalization of Power and Mass Uprisings in Dictatorships
British Journal of Political Science (with John Chin and Wonjun Song)
Reproduction files             Pre-print with Appendix

2022

Migration and Democracy: How Remittances Undermine Dictatorship
Princeton University Press (with Abel Escriba-Folch and Covadonga Meseguer)
Book website          2023 APSA Migration & Citizenship Section Best Book Award

Historical Dictionary of Modern Coups d’etat
Rowman & Littlefield (with John Chin and David Carter)
2023 American Library Association, Best Historical Materials Selection
Review: Library Journal

Reshaping the Threat Environment: Personalism, Coups, and Assassinations
Comparative Political Studies (with John Chin, Abel Escriba-Folch, and Wonjun Song)
Reproduction files     Pre-print with Appendix

2021

Personalist Ruling Parties in Democracies
Democratization  (with Erica Frantz, Andrea Kendall-Taylor, and Jia Li)
Reproduction files       Pre-print       Appendix      Code book and party-leader narratives

Foreign Aid and Judicial Autonomy
Review of International Organizations (with Margaret Ariotti and Simone Dietrich)
Reproduction files    Appendix    Pre-print

How Personalist Politics Is Changing Democracies
Journal of Democracy 32(3): 94-108
(with Erica Frantz, Andrea Kendall-Taylor, and Carisa Nietsche)
Reproduction files    Luminate Report

The Varieties of Coups D’etat: Introducing the Colpus Dataset
International Studies Quarterly  65(4): 1040–1051 (with John Chin and David Carter)
Reproduction files    Appendix    Pre-print    John Chin’s website with data and coup narratives

The Latent Characteristics that Structure Autocratic Rule
Political Science Research and Methods 9(1): 1-19
APSA 2014, updated 2017, pre-print updated 2019
Reproduction files    Appendix

2020

The Digital Dictators: How Technology Strengthens Autocracy
Foreign Affairs  99(2): 102-115 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Erica Frantz)
V-Dem Working Paper 2020:27

Personalization of Power and Repression in Dictatorships
Journal of Politics 82(1): 372-377 (with Erica FrantzAndrea Kendall-Taylor, and Xu Xu)
Reproduction files   Appendix   Pre-print    Cited in the Interpreter by the New York Times

2018

How Dictatorships Work
Cambridge University Press (with Barbara Geddes and Erica Frantz)
Book website     Amazon     Google books

Remittances and Protest in Dictatorships
American Journal of Political Science 62(4): 889-904 (with Abel Escriba-Folch and Covadonga Mesegeur)
Reproduction files   Appendix   Pre-print

Monopoly Rents and Foreign Direct Investment in Fixed Assets
International Studies Quarterly 62(2): 341–356 (with Boliang Zhu)
Reproduction files    Appendix      SSRN

The North Korean Autocracy in Comparative Perspective
Journal of East Asian Studies 18(2): 157-180 (with Wonjun Songpre-print

2017

Autocratic Legislatures and Expropriation
British Journal of Political Science  47(1):1-17 (with Matthew Wilson)
Reproduction files      Appendix

The Global Rise Personalized Politics
The Washington Quarterly  40(1): 7-19 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Erica Frantz)

How oil income and missing hydrocarbon rents data influence autocratic survival: A response to Lucas and Richter (2016)
Research and Politics 4(3) (with Erica Frantz)
Reproduction files  Appendix

Are Coups Good For Democracy? A Response to Miller (2016)
Research and Politics 4(2) (with George Derpanopoulos, Erica Frantz, and Barbara Geddes)
Reproduction files  Appendix

2016

The New Dictators: Why Personalism Rules
Foreign Affairs Snapshot  (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Erica Frantz)
Foreign Affairs Best of the Web, 2016

Are Coups Good For Democracy?
Research and Politics 3(1) (with George Derpanopoulos, Erica Frantz, and Barbara Geddes)
Reproduction files   Appendix   Washington Post

Measuring Autocratic Regime Instability
Research and Politics 3(1) (with Daehee Bak)
Reproduction files      Appendix

2015

Foreign Pressure and the Politics of Autocratic Survival
Oxford University Press (with Abel Escriba-Folch)
2017 Stein Rokkan Prize for Comparative Social Science Research
Reproduction files     Google books

Remittances and Democratization
International Studies Quarterly 59(3): 571–586 (with Abel Escriba-Folch and Covadonga Mesegeur)
Reproduction files      Appendix    LSE Blog    Washington Post

Terrorism and the Fate of Dictators
World Politics 67(3): 423–468 (with Deniz Aksoy and David Carter)
Reproduction files     Appendix   Coup data case descriptions

Human Rights Prosecutions and Autocratic Survival
International Organization 69(2): 343–373  (with Abel Escriba-Folch)
Reproduction files     Appendix

Oil and Autocratic Regime Survival
British Journal of Political Science 45(2): 287–306 (with Erica Frantz and Barbara Geddes)
Reproduction files     Appendix      Washington Post

Foreign Aid Allocation Tactics and Democratic Change in Africa
Journal of Politics 77(1): 216–234  (with Simone Dietrich)
Reproduction files     Appendix       AidData blog

2014

Autocratic Breakdown and Regime Transitions: A New Data Set
Perspectives on Politics 12(2): 313–331 (with Barbara Geddes and Erica Frantz)
Reproduction files       Data set website           Top-10 most cited since 2003

Military Rule
Annual Review of Political Science  17: 147–162 (with Barbara Geddes and Erica Frantz)

2013

Foreign Aid and Democratic Development in Africa   (with Simone Dietrich)
in Democratic Trajectories in Africa: Unravelling the Impact of Foreign Aid. Oxford University Press
ed. Danielle Resnick and Nicolas van de Walle 

2012

Terrorism in Dictatorships
Journal of Politics  74(3): 810–826 (with Deniz Aksoy and David Carter)
Reproduction files

Authoritarian Institutions and Regime Survival: Transitions to Democracy and Subsequent Authoritarian Regimes
British Journal of Political Science 42(2): 283–309 (with Abel Escriba-Folch)     Appendix

2010

Dealing with Tyranny: International Sanctions and the Survival of Authoritarian Rulers
International Studies Quarterly 54(2): 335–359  (with Abel Escriba-Folch)     Appendix

The Politics of Effective Foreign Aid
Annual Review of Political Science 13: 61–80  (with Matthew Winters)

Aid Effectiveness and the Politics of Personalism.
Comparative Political Studies 43(6): 735–762    Appendix

Exit During Crisis
Kellogg Institute for International Studies Working Paper #367

2009

How Foreign Aid Can Foster Democratization in Authoritarian Regimes
American Journal of Political Science 53(3): 552–571     Appendix

2008

Do Authoritarian Institutions Constrain? How Legislatures Affect Economic Growth and Investment
American Journal of Political Science 52(2): 322–343

Insurance or Investment? How Authoritarian Time Horizons Impact Foreign Aid Effectiveness
Comparative Political Studies 41(7): 971–1000

Political Competition and Democratic Stability in New Democracies
British Journal of Political Science 38(2): 221–245