John Mitchell

With all the buzz about the upcoming presidential election, it is easy to forget the less flashy races down-ballot. Across the country, thirty-five senate races are happening, and with the Republicans holding their narrow majority in the Senate by only three seats, both sides are battling their hardest for control of the Senate. If President Trump wins reelection in November, the Democrats will need to flip four seats to take control of the Senate, while if former Vice-President Biden wins the election, the Democrats will only need to flip three seats, since the Vice-President breaks ties in the Senate. Here are the top ten Senators most likely to lose their seats this November;

1. Doug Jones – Alabama – Democrat

Three years ago, Doug Jones narrowly defeated Roy Moore in a special election for then Attorney General Jeff Sessions’ old seat. Given that Roy Moore was facing several accusations of sexually assaulting women, including minors, yet Jones still only managed to pull in 50.0% of the vote, hopes have never been high for his reelection. Alabama is one of the most strongly Republican states in the country, and despite the fact that Jones’ opponent, Tommy Tuberville, is a former football coach with no political experience, Jones is widely regarded as being the most vulnerable incumbent senator in the 2020 election.

2. Martha McSally – Arizona – Republican

Despite having lost a previous Senate election to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, Arizona’s other current Senator, Martha McSally was appointed to fill the late Senator John McCain’s seat after his death from brain cancer in 2018. Since then, McSally has tried to walk the thin line between appeasing the Republican base that supports President Trump, and maintaining her independence in a state that is increasingly tilting towards the left. Her challenger, Mark Kelly, a retired U.S. Navy Captain and astronaut, has been consistently beating McSally in both polling and fundraising. In the changing political landscape of Arizona, where Biden is now leading Trump in the polls, McSally’s reluctance to criticize President Trump may well cost her the election.

3. Cory Gardner – Colorado – Republican

Like Martha McSally, Cory Gardner is struggling to balance his support of the President with his appeal to moderate and independent voters in a state where Joe Biden is currently leading in the polls. His opponent, John Hickenlooper, the former Denver Mayor and Colorado Governor, has faced his own stumbles, but has consistently been leading Gardner in the polls. In fact, Hickenlooper has been doing so well in the polls lately that a major Democratic super PAC recently pulled its remaining ads in Colorado, choosing instead to focus instead on more competitive races, in a sign of confidence that Gardner is all but beaten.

4. Susan Collins – Maine – Republican

Susan Collins’ seat has long been one that the Democrats have had their eyes on flipping, but they haven’t managed it yet. That said, Collins has never been more vulnerable, with Republican voters unhappy about her vote against confirming Justice Amy Coney Barrett, and moderate and swing voters similarly unhappy about her support of Justice Brett Kavanaugh during his own confirmation hearing. Collins has also come under fire for her comments that President Trump “learned a pretty big lesson” after his impeachment, with some condemning the words as a failure of the Senate’s duty of checks and balances. Collins faces an uphill battle to reelection, with her opponent, Sara Gideon, holding a narrow lead in the polls.

5. Thom Tillis – North Carolina – Republican

Although his opponent, Cal Cunningham, has recently become embroiled in a sexting scandal, Thom Tillis is still struggling in the polls, with recent polling showing him down by six points. Tillis has faced criticism for his party’s handling of the coronavirus, and the senate’s failure to pass a second economic relief bill has harmed many incumbent Republicans, Tillis included. Although his opponent is lower on cash than most Democratic challengers, Tillis may not have enough time to make up the difference in polling to save his seat.

6. Steve Daines – Montana – Republican

For those not familiar with Montana politics, it may come as a surprise that a state that Donald Trump won by over twenty points in 2016 may elect a Democratic senator in 2020. However, despite only voting for a Democratic presidential candidate once since 1964 (in 1992 for Bill Clinton), the state has a long history of ticket-splitting down-ballot. The state’s senior Senator, Jon Tester, is a third-term Democrat, and the state hasn’t had a Republican governor since 2005. The current governor, Steve Bullock, is challenging incumbent Senator Steve Daines in what is already the most expensive Senate race in Montana history. Although Daines hasn’t done much to make himself particularly vulnerable, Bullock is a strong challenger who may have a chance at beating him. Bullock has the highest approval rating of any elected official in the state, and while Daines has tried to tie himself tightly to Trump, Bullock has emphasized his history of working across the aisle with the state’s Republican-controlled State Legislature to pass popular reforms, including expanding healthcare and protecting public lands. Bullock has also touted his record with the economy and the state budget, while criticizing Daines for his record on healthcare and the environment. Polling in the “Battle of the Steves” has constantly wavered, with each candidate holding a narrow lead at times, and the race is far too close to call right now.

7. Joni Ernst – Iowa – Republican

Despite Donald Trump’s victory in Iowa by ten points in 2016, the state is a toss-up for the presidential race in 2020, with neither side having a clear advantage in the polls. This deadlock has extended to the state’s Senate race as well, as incumbent Joni Ernst tries to convince voters that both she and the President deserve a second term. Despite her opponent, Theresa Greenfield, pulling in more money in fundraising by a wide margin, the race is still essentially a dead heat, and could go either way quite easily. A recent debate gaffe by Joni Ernst—where she was unable to name the break-even price of soybeans in a farm-heavy state—may hurt her, but it will be interesting to see if it is enough to cost her a Senate seat.

8. Lindsey Graham – South Carolina – Republican

What was once expected to be an easy race for Republicans has turned into an absolute dead heat in South Carolina. Lindsey Graham had for a long time been considered a bipartisan and moderate senator, but in recent years he has taken a much more partisan line, falling in line with President Trump at almost every opportunity. His opponent, Jaime Harrison, is making the argument that Graham has become a hypocrite for his wholesale support for a president he once called “a race-baiting, xenophobic, religious bigot.” In 2015, Graham said “You know how you make America great again? Tell Donald Trump to go to hell.”, yet since the 2016 election he has become one of President Trump’s most loyal supporters, a fact that Harrison has hammered home in his campaign ads again and again. Harrison has shattered fundraising records, beating the previous largest single-quarter senate race fundraising haul by more than 19 million dollars. Yet, with much of this money coming from out of state, Graham has tried to make the point that his opponent is beholden to special interests, even as Democrats have mocked Graham’s incessant fundraising pleas during appearances on Fox News. The race is surely one to watch, but only time will tell if Graham’s turn towards Trump will be his undoing.

9. David Perdue – Georgia – Republican

In the newly-christened battleground state of Georgia, both Senate seats are actually up for election, but with Kelly Loeffler’s seat locked in a three-way battle that will almost certainly lead to a runoff election, most eyes are on David Perdue and his challenger Jon Ossoff. Although Ossoff would be the youngest senator since 1981, Perdue’s blunders have hurt him in the race. Perdue is one of the senators implicated in the 2020 Congressional insider trading scandal, having made 112 stock transactions allegedly based on information received during classified Senate briefings. Perdue also started buying stock in DuPont, a company that make personal protective equipment, on the same day as a Senate briefing on March 2^nd. During the campaign against Ossoff, Perdue’s campaign produced an ad featuring a photograph of Ossoff, who is Jewish, doctored to feature an enlarged nose, a common anti-Semitic trope. Perdue claimed the image was produced in error, but his later intentional mispronunciation of Vice-Presidential candidate Kamala Harris’ first name during an appearance at a Trump rally was widely condemned as unprofessional and possibly racist, and Ossoff has criticized Perdue strongly on both issues. The Senate race between Perdue and Ossoff has been marked by fiery exchanges on both sides—to the point that Perdue has backed out of the final debate scheduled between the two—but it will be a close race to see if Perdue’s blunders can balance out Ossoff’s youth.

10. Gary Peters – Michigan – Democrat

Although Michigan is moving towards Biden, the Senate race there is significantly closer, with Gary Peters maintaining only a narrow lead over his Republican challenger, John James. Fundraising has been tight as well, but the race has lacked any significant fireworks on either side, with both candidates running on a message of bipartisanship and moderation. Republicans have tried to tie Peters to some of the more radical members of the Democratic Party, such as Bernie Sanders, but they haven’t been any to do enough damage to entirely close the gap in polling between the candidates.