Ethan Rauch

Following a Cinderella playoff run that ended with them two wins away from a world championship, the Philadelphia Phillies look to be poised for another big offseason, where they are heavily rumored to be players for a big time free agent.

One of their players that has recently departed for free agency, Jean Segura, was a regular at second base for the team since his arrival in 2019. This year, rookie Bryson Stott played the majority of his time at shortstop for the Phillies. Segura’s departure opens up a hole for the team in middle infield, and this current class of free agents has a frenzy of premium choices for the Phillies to choose from that fit this criteria.

Their names? Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, Carlos Correa, and Trea Turner.

In 2022, according to Spotrac, the Phillies ended the season with a payroll of $246 million, surpassing the $230 million luxury tax mark for the first time in their history. As things stand currently the Phillies have roughly $77million opened up in payroll space, bringing their number to $169 million.

This past November 16th, Phillies President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski hosted a press conference where he answered questions from reporters about the state of the team following the conclusion of the postseason. The comments he made were rather inspiring for fans of the team who were hoping they’d take advantage of this opened-up payroll space, continuing to push the needle towards a championship.

It is assumed that should the Phillies sign one of these players, which it appears likely they could very well do, that Bryson Stott would then shift to second base to make room for the new shortstop acquisition. According to manager Rob Thomson, it’s a position he is very much open to playing.

So at this stage in the offseason, it appears that it’s a matter of “if,” not “when” the Phillies will get their new star player. But that begs the question: who, exactly, should they sign?

Two names, based on star power, age, offensive and defensive metrics, and reputation stand out in particular among this small field of players:

Carlos Correa, and Trea Turner.

The Case for Trea Turner

One of the biggest intangibles Trea Turner brings to the table is his undeniable elite speed. In the past five years, Turner has stolen a total of 149 bases while only being caught 26 times. In this span he has also hit a stellar batting average of .301 with an OPS of .843. In as recent as the 2021 season, Turner hit .328 with a .911 OPS. His elite bat-to-ball skill and the threat of stealing bases is only going to be enhanced in this coming season with the size of the bases being enlarged ever slightly.

The only “caveat” with Turner is how evaluators may think his defense will age. The Phillies as a team weren’t the best defensively in 2022, with a -34 DRS (defensive runs saved) and a -37 OAA (outs above average) according to Fangraphs. In 2022, Turner had a -1 DRS and a 0 OAA.

The Case for Carlos Correa

Carlos Correa has not been as good a hitter as Trea Turner in recent years, but what sets him apart from Turner is his younger age and elite defense. Whereas Turner is 29 years old and soon to be 30, Correa is 28 years old. Defensively, Correa is also coming off a season where he had 3 DRS and -3 OAA, according to Fangraphs. On paper, this doesn’t seem all that inspiring, especially still considering that the Phillies definitely need to be better defensively. But looking back to 2021, a season he played the bulk of with little injury concern, he ended up with 20 DRS and 12 OAA. When Correa is on defensively, he’s one of the best in the game.

However, considering someone like Correa requires some insight into his injury history, and what the future might hold for his overall health. As consistent as he can be with both the bat and the glove, Correa has only once in his young career played more than 150 games in the field. For a team like the Phillies who already have a plethora of DH options, from guys like Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Rhys Hoskins, and Bryce Harper, it’s important for whoever they pay good money to that they’re able to play every day.

The Final Verdict

With Correa’s younger age and elite defense, it is reasonable to expect it likely that his eventual contract ends up larger than that of Turner’s. But with the massive payroll range being opened up, spending large is the right move for the Phils. Especially now of all given times with their players still in their primes, and coming off a season where they were two wins away from a world championship, the best move the Phillies can possibly make is to sign the best all-around player who can give them all of the intangibles they so desperately need. Especially when they have a player such as Alec Bohm at 3B, who is still a work in progress despite improving drastically defensively in this past year.

Given that it doesn’t look like there will be any major alterations to the team aside from a new shortstop, defense still looks like it will be an area of weakness for the Phillies. Having the elite defensive Correa to help offset Bohm’s lack of range would prove to be bountiful. Starting in 2023 also, the shift looks to be outlawed, meaning fielding range is going to be as important as it’s ever been.

Correa also profiles as someone capable of moving over to 3B later in his career, along the lines of what star player Manny Machado had done when he was once a part of the Baltimore Orioles organization. In moving to 3B down the line he can help preserve his body and hopefully ensure he has a healthy and productive rest of his career.