A Tale as Old as Time: Under the Lights in Kinnick

A win’s a win and that’s what Nittany Nation got this past weekend. Penn State moved to 5-0 on the season after a convincing homecoming victory over Purdue by a score of 35-7. The Nittany Lion offense put 28 points up on Purdue through little over a quarter but managed to only put up a touchdown the rest of the game. Although Penn State struggled on offense for a big chunk of this game, the Penn State defense arguably put in their best performance yet. The defense sacked Jake Plummer 10 times, with Shaka Toney leading the way with 3 of those sacks. Although the Penn State offense struggled, Sean Clifford still had a decent overall game, going 20 of 29 for 264 yards and 3 touchdowns. Penn State’s offensive MVP of this game was true freshman running back Noah Cain. Cain leads the Nittany Lions on the ground, rushing 12 times for 105 yards and a touchdown.  

It was a boring game for 3 quarters, but Penn State is 1-0 for the week. Now the gauntlet begins and it’s time to see what this team is truly made of. The first hurdle is the Hawkeyes from the University of Iowa.  

At First Glance…

Kirk Ferentz has his Hawkeyes right where he usually has them, with a good record and a chance to compete in the Big Ten West. The Hawkeyes currently sit at 4-1 on the season and ranked No. 19 in the AP Poll.  

Iowa’s first 4 games of the season didn’t change the narrative around this team. Iowa faced a slate of Miami (OH), Rutgers, Iowa State, and Middle Tennessee. Three of those four games proved to be no worry at all for Iowa, as it convincingly beat Miami, Rutgers, and Middle Tennessee without breaking a sweat. The game against Iowa State was a close one. It came down to the last-minute special teams blunder from the Cyclones to give Iowa a win against a good Iowa State team.

Last week was the game that showed the country what the Hawkeyes are. The Hawkeyes traveled to the Big House to take on a struggling, but ranked, Michigan squad. The game was a blast from the past, as both teams went old-school Big Ten football and relied heavily on their running game and defense to win this game. Michigan jumped out to a 10-0 lead early in the game and held it for all 4 quarters. Iowa turned the ball over 4 times, ran for a total of 1 yard, and could only muster a field goal, as they lost to Michigan 10-3 and dropped to 4-1 on the season.

A Deeper Look…

This Iowa team is like any other Iowa team from the past, a bad offense led by a good defense. On the offensive side of the ball, the man under center is senior quarterback Nate Stanley. The third-year starting quarterback on paper has had a good season, but the numbers are inflated due to their lack of good opposition. Against the bad teams Iowa has played in Miami, Rutgers, and Middle Tennessee, Stanley threw for 8 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Against Iowa State and Michigan, Stanley threw for 0 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, all against Michigan last week. He was also sacked a total of 8 times vs Michigan, which was 2 more than his entire season total at the time. Stanley is an experienced play-caller who can keep an offense organized, but is rarely the piece that will win the Hawkeyes a football game against a good team.

Iowa’s offense outside of Stanley is also one that lacks a true game-breaker, a difference-maker. Iowa’s feature back is junior Mekhi Sargent. He put up good numbers in Iowa’s wins over Miami (OH) and Middle Tennessee, but outside of those games has nothing really to show for. His total of two touchdowns leads the Hawkeyes on the ground. Expect to also see Toren Young and Tyler Goodson get a good amount of touches at the running back position as the game against Penn State gets into the latter stages. Iowa will look to the wide receiver duo of Ihmir Smith-Marsette and Brandon Smith to get things going through the air. Both have decent numbers on the year and have accounted for 6 of Iowa’s 8 touchdowns through the air this year. Iowa’s biggest offseason loss came at the tight end position, as they lost both T.J Hockenson and Noah Fant in the first round of the NFL Draft last year. The loss of that dynamic duo has seen a big part of Iowa’s offense from last year disappear, resulting in the currently struggling Iowa offense.

Even though the offense is a sinking boat, a Kirk Ferentz-led Iowa team always has a good defense. The defensive efficacy rate ranks 12th best in the entire country. The talent Iowa has on all three levels on defense matches up with the best in college football. Iowa’s defensive line is led by stud defensive end A.J Epenesa. The junior hasn’t put up monster numbers so far this season, but the junior can wreak havoc in the backfield and will surely be looking at his NFL options at the end of this year. The linebacking core is highlighted by Iowa’s leading tackler Kristian Welch. The senior has accounted for 38 tackles so far this season and will be used in a lot of blitz packages against Penn State. Iowa’s secondary is their strongest defensive unit, as it’s highlighted by Jack Koerner, Geno Stone, and Micheal Okemudia. Expect to see Penn State’s receivers struggle against their biggest task of the year.

Connor’s Keys to the Game…

Penn State – Turnovers

Nate Stanley threw three interceptions against Michigan and that was no mistake. Michigan forced Stanley into bad decisions by getting after the quarterback. In a game where defense is going to win the day, a positive turnover margin is what’s going to get Penn State the win. Iowa’s offensive line looked atrocious against a lethal Michigan pass rush and that may be an indication of what Penn State is going to come up against. Penn State almost broke the school record for sacks against Purdue, so expect to see Stanley get rushed a lot in this game. Force Stanley into an interception or two, give Clifford positive field position and expect Penn State to get out of Kinnick with the win.

Iowa – Make Clifford Uncomfortable

Similar to Penn State, Iowa will need to get after the quarterback. But, unlike Stanley, Clifford is the type of player who can win Penn State this football game. With that being said, this is his first “true” road test in his career. Clifford has never seen a defense as good as Iowa and that’s the advantage Iowa needs to exploit. Iowa needs to spice up their defensive packages and keep Clifford guessing. Expect to see a lot of flipping between zone and man coverage. Also, expect to see Iowa send a lot of blitzes to take advantage of Penn State’s weak offensive line. Iowa knows their offense is not going to win them this game, so if they can cut off the head of the Penn State offense in Clifford, Iowa will have a very good chance of winning this football game.

Predictions

This game is going to suck. If you are a neutral fan and you have the option to watch this game or watch paint dry, please watch paint dry. This game is going to epitomize the type of Big Ten football I grew up watching. The type of football where you ask yourself, “why do I do this to myself?” It will be a defensive battle like you have never seen before. For the older fans out there, does the date October 23rd, 2004 ring a bell? If it doesn’t allow me to enlighten you on what happened on that fateful day. Penn State quarterback Zack Mills would throw for 82 yards and two interceptions, Iowa would kick two field goals, Penn State’s defense would get two safeties, and Iowa defeated Penn State by a score of 6-4. Now that score is extreme and won’t happen (hopefully), but it’s going to feel like that game all over again. Not to mention, it’s a night game in Kinnick. Last time this happened, it took No. 4 Penn State a monster game from Saquon Barkley and last-minute heroics from Trace McSorley to escape with a win over a non-ranked Iowa squad.  

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, defense will win this game. Iowa has a better secondary and Penn State has a better linebacking unit. So it comes down to the defensive line. It’s close, but I’m riding with the Wild Dogs. Shaka Toney, Jason Oweh, Yetur Gross-Matos, and that Penn State D-line will be the reason Penn State walks out of Kinnick with a win. Also, one of the offenses will have to make a play. Penn State has KJ Hamler and Iowa does not have KJ Hamler.  

Score Prediction – Penn State 16, Iowa 10

Expect to watch the worst football game of your life. Expect to hate yourself during this game and question why God put you on this path of Penn State fandom. You may hate it, but secretly you wouldn’t have it any other way. It’s Penn State football, for crying out loud, and even though it’s the sort of relationship that makes you go to the lowest of lows, it’s also the type of relationship that will put you on the highest of highs. Saturday, October 12, 8 p.m., Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, Iowa, strap in because it’s going to be a doozy of a game. As our head coach James Franklin always says, “It begins with I love you and ends with I love you.” Let’s get it. WE ARE!!!

 

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