1I/’Oumuamua updates!

[note: As I wrote in November, I don’t think ‘Oumuamua is an alien spacecraft. While other astronomers have made that suggestion, and while I’m happy to engage in such speculation in a SETI context, I think ‘Oumuamua is interesting in its own right as an asteroid and because of how it is getting us thinking about how to find alien probes in the Solar System.]

Three updates to the ‘Oumuamua story!

First, it appears to be tumbling:

This explains a lot about the confusion over its shape and color. The data keep giving different answers because the object is spinning in a complicated way. To understand deeply, you need a quick primer on principal axes (skip to the slo-mo parts, especially the “unstable” axis around 2:00):

The key is that in space, things generally rotate in a very simple way, about the “principal axis” with the largest moment of inertia (smallest radius).  This is because this is the axis for which a given angular momentum has the least energy, and over time objects will lose energy but not angular momentum.  The Earth, for instance, is oblate, and rotates along the shortest axis it has.

But if you just start something spinning arbitrarily (or, say, you knock it around) or if you start it spinning with some motion along its intermediate axis, it will execute a much more complex motion (around 2:00 in the video above) called tumbling.  It will do this in space until the changing distortions of the body from the changing centrifugal forces eventually cause the rotational energy to dissipate away as waste heat and it ends up a principal axis rotator again (that’s why the Discovery One in 2010:Odyssey Two is spinning that way, along its shortest axis).

The Discovery One is spinning when he Alexei Leonov comes to find it because it had angular momentum but no attitude control, so eventually found the lowest energy state, which was a spin about its shortest axis.

So why is ‘Oumuamua tumbling? It’s unclear, but it may be related to its elongated shape: unlike typical Solar System “rubble pile” asteroids and icy comets, it seems to have more rigidity (apparently not uncommon in smaller Solar System objects), and so it dissipates its rotational energy more slowly—so slowly that it can tumble for a long time.


Second, I wrote a AAS Research Note correcting a small point made by Jean Schneider, who showed that ‘Oumuamua could not have been sent into it’s current orbit via gravitational slingshot with any known planet, or the hypothetical Planet Nine.  I pointed out that in fact there is no way any Solar System object could have done it, hypothetical or not (I supect that this point is trivial to people that think about this for a living, but it is nontheless surprising to those of us who don’t).  I think Alt Mars Crater put it best:

Update:

 


Third, Breakthrough Listen is taking a look (listen?) to see if it is emitting radio waves as one might expect (?) if it is an alien probe:

This is neat! We should be thinking about what we will do if something that looks (more) like an alien craft comes through the Solar System. Now the Breakthrough Listen team has a protocol for tracking Solar System objects with Green Bank and analyzing the data they collect.

Such a discovery would imply that there are lots of these things in the Solar System at any given moment (even if they are deliberately targeting the Sun, they are hard to spot and we’ll miss most of them), and so lots of opportunities to study them.

Why would there be so many of them? Part of the argument that it is possible to settle the entire Galaxy is that exponential growth is possible, because the only limiting resource is the stars (and the material around them) themselves.  Exponential growth can be achieved via Von Neumann probes: self-replicating spacecraft that go to a system, make lots more of themselves, and then go to more systems.

Now even if these have purposes that don’t involve coming near the Sun, you might expect some fraction to eventually go derelict (space is a harsh environment, and an optimal design will likely have a nonzero failure rate). Such derelict craft would, if they are not traveling so fast that they escape the Galaxy, eventually “thermalize” with the stars and end up drifting around like any other interstellar comet or asteroid.

In fact, since they (presumably) no longer have attitude control, one would expect that they would eventually begin to tumble, and if they are very rigid that tumbling might distinguish them from ordinary interstellar asteroids… and in fact, just because their propulsion is broken doesn’t mean that their radio transmitters would be broken…

Is 1I/’Oumuamua an Alien Spacecraft?

No, I don’t think there’s any reason to think it is, but there’s lots of chatter on Twitter that suggest astronomers think it could be:

So what’s going on?

For the first time, astronomers think they have found an interstellar asteroid.  It is clearly on an escape trajectory, and everything about its path is consistent with a free-floating asteroid that was ejected from another star system and is now happening to buzz by the Sun:

There are several things that have astronomers talking “spaceship”:

  • Its discovery closely tracks the opening chapter of the book Rendezvous with Rama, by Arthur C. Clarke, about the discovery of an interstellar spaceship on a similar trajectory to ‘Oumuamua.
  • We were expecting the first discovered interstellar rocks (we know they must be out there) to be comets, since our own Solar System’s Oort cloud (populated by nearly-ejected Solar System detritus) is mostly comets. The fact that it is not a comet has people scratching their heads.
  • One of the recent measurements of its shape finds it to have a 10:1 axis ratio: this is not typical of asteroids, but is not uncommon for ships in science fiction (the 2001 monolith was 1:4:9)
  • One of the recent measurements of its color has it very red, similar to metallic asteroids

In many ways, this discovery tracks the excitement around Tabby’s Star: a prediction of how we might discover alien life was made (Clarke for ‘Oumuamua, Luc Arnold for Tabby’s Star); and later an anomalous object was found roughly tracking that prediction but confounding natural explanation.

I’m glad that astronomers are talking about this in a SETI context (and this is SETI), but my personal prior on this is that there is not much reason to get excited about the SETI angle.

That’s because there are several important differences between ‘Oumuamua and Tabby’s Star:

  • The data on Tabby’s Star from Kepler are exquisite.  What’s more, only after being convinced that there was no chance of instrumental error did it really get interesting.  The data on ‘Oumuamua is thin: different groups are getting different sizes, rotation periods, axial ratios, and colors for the object, meaning that it hasn’t been well measured yet.  For instance:

  • The various values people get for the axial ratio vary from the hard-to-understand 10:1 to the more ordinary 3:1.  In other words, it’s not at all clear that this characteristic of ‘Oumuamua is actually all that anomalous—the 10:1 measurement could be in error.
  • Tabby and her team put 2 years of hard work into understanding that star.  Only after all of that work was the “hypothesis of last resort” something worth publishing. ‘Oumuamua was discovered a month ago.
  • Tabby’s team’s ruling out of most natural explanations built on decades of stellar astrophysics and understanding of stars and their environments.  ‘Oumuamua is the first interstellar asteroid we’ve seen, so we have very little to go on.

So I’ll need to see a lot more data and hard, critical analysis of the anomalies in ‘Oumuamua before I get interested in the SETI angle at the level I am for Tabby’s Star.

That said, I’m glad that astronomers are, on the informal forum of Twitter anyway, having a SETI discussion about the prospect of discovering interstellar probes passing through the Solar System.  It’s a neat topic, and once worth thinking about.  I hope ‘Oumuamua inspires more real work on it in the peer-reviewed literature, including concrete suggestions of what to look for when future interstellar objects are discovered passing through.

[Update: please see this Twitter thread by Michele Bannister:

This article (in German, but Google Translate) by Daniel Fischer:

Interstellarer Gast ʻOumuamua erstaunlich länglich

and the comment by Darin Ragazzine below for more-informed takes on this whole issue. Where they contradict me, you should trust them, because they are actual planetary scientists that work in this field.

Doing SETI Better

One of the reasons SETI is hard is that we don’t know exactly what we are looking for, and part of that difficulty is that we still aren’t sure of who we are.  It seems counter-intuitive, but in order to be good at looking for aliens, we have to become experts at understanding ourselves.

Looking for the unknown

Not knowing what you’re looking for is common to many exciting fields in science.  For instance, another goal of astrobiology is to find biosignatures, but in order to know what those are, we have to make assumptions about how life works, based on life-as-we-know-it.  We must balance the need to define the observations that would constitute a successful detection against the fact that life out there might be as-we-don’t-know-it.

Or dark matter: it could be a common particle or a rare one, it could interact with itself or not, it could reveal itself in gamma rays or something else, it could be one of the hypothesized elementary particles or one we haven’t thought of, or it could even be a modification to the laws of gravity.  The best we can do is guess at its nature and look see if there are detectable observational consequences of that guess.

In the hunt for biosignatures, we can appeal to biology, chemistry, and other fields to follow the chain from the definition of life to observable consequences.  In dark matter detection we can appeal to fundamental physics. What do we have in SETI?

Well, we certainly have physics: there are physical laws we believe are fundamental and that we know pretty well, and we can think about energy use and how it would manifest itself. We also have ourselves: we are a technological species, so we can think about how we would detect a species like us.  This last point is analogous to the hunt for biosignatures: we have to balance the need to define technosignatures of intelligent life as we know it, while keeping in mind that perhaps the only technological life out there is as-we-don’t-know-it.

Cultural myopias

There are several consequences of this:

One is that we need to recognize when we are unnecessarily restricting our thinking to life like ours. It can be hard to “step out of brains” (as Nathalie Cabrol puts it) and imagine a truly alien civilization. In order to do it, we must understand what it is to be human, so we can imagine what we would and might not have in common with alien species. This is especially important if there are “beacons” out there: signposts of technological life designed to catch our attention. Finding these means finding Schelling points, which means understanding what it means to be intelligent and technological, and what we must have in common with other species in the Galaxy.

Even more than thinking like an alien, we need to be sure we are able to identify what it means to think like a human. A lot of the background and assumptions in SETI comes from stories we tell about how we got to be where we are now. For instance, when we discuss the “colonization” of the galaxy and the number of potential beacon transmission sites, we imagine an alien species—or humanity—traveling beyond their planet on ships, leaving the Shores of the Cosmic Ocean to settle distant shores, just as we have already done in our own modest ways on Earth’s oceans.

But what pictures come to mind when you think our history of this? Who are humanity’s quintessential colonists, the paragons of exploration?

The Mayflower colonists?

Christopher Columbus?

Landing of Columbus (12 October 1492), painting by John Vanderlyn

 

But, shouldn’t they be Ayla and Moana?

After all, humanity explored and settled nearly every habitable corner of our planet thousands of years before continental Europeans figured out how to navigate the open ocean.

The story of European history as human history—the story of the development of philosophy and science and technology and discovery as the progression from Ancient Greece to the Renaissance to the Space Shuttle—is a common one, but not representative of how technology on Earth as a whole actually developed.

In fact, this perspective is part of the theory of progressivist social evolutionism, now discarded by the social sciences that invented it, and one that justified a vision of European culture as the pinnacle of human civilization.

When we employ popularized and inaccurate accounts of human history like these to think about SETI, we are using partial and politicized stories to do science, and that’s sloppy, to SETI’s detriment.

And it’s not just history. A lot of our visions of human spaceflight and SETI come from science fiction, where many authors—including many influential scientists and engineers—have tried to broaden our minds to the possibility of what could be out there. But fiction is successful when it speaks to us—when the stories that are ostensibly about aliens have their real relevance to life on Earth.  The aliens in these stories are rarely really alien—they are usually allegories for “Others” on Earth, designed to explore humanity from an outsider’s perspective. That makes them fun to read, but it makes them guides of mixed utility, at best, for what might really be out there.

Doing SETI better

For all of these reasons, SETI needs to include the social sciences, especially anthropology, to help practitioners identify where they are stuck “inside their brains” and get out.  Anthropologists are trained to spot these sorts of cultural myopias and avoid them, from the books we read, to the language we use to describe our future and alien species.

That’s why anthropologist Michael Oman-Regan and I have written a paper about visions of SETI and human spaceflight.  We identify some of the tropes and language currently common in the fields, and trace some of them to their origins in science fiction and colonialist narratives (including an oft-cited (self-described) “white separatist”).

As we write in the paper:

Regardless of their personal politics, it behooves practitioners to know the origins of the terms they use and visions for the future they hold, and examine the biases they bring, both to avoid unacknowledged bias in a field that requires an open mind, and to ensure that the field itself is not excluding voices and perspectives that will also help it thrive.

Along the way, we recommend some science fiction to read, trace the “giggle factor” in SETI to camp in science fiction, provide over 60 footnotes of links, evidence, and asides (fun footnotes are a guilty pleasure of mine), and we cite a huge range of sources from Burtons (Tim, LeVar) to social science PhD theses to Avi Loeb.  We mention a lot of ideas that could be whole papers in themselves; we hope that it will inspire curiosity and more research into many of these topics.

I would do a big slow-blog introducing all the big points, but there are too many, and since the paper is very readable (I think so, anyway), instead I’ll leave you with the above teaser, and this link to the paper:

https://arxiv.org/abs/1708.05318

Enjoy!

Parts of this post quote or paraphrase our paper, including parts written by Michael Oman-Reagan. Any inaccuracies are my own.

Primer on Precise Radial Velocities

Objects in space are specified by their Right Ascension, Declination, and distance.  The first two are easily measured, usually to better than a part in a million; the last is notoriously tricky to measure, sometimes uncertain to an order of magnitude.

The time derivatives of these quantities are the reverse: proper motions are unmeasured for most objects in the universe, but velocities can usually be measured to a part in a million rather easily.

I noticed this (I’m sure I’m not the first) when writing a review chapter on precise radial velocities as an exoplanet discovery method. I think it’s a good primer on the subject for students just getting started.  In it I briefly trace the origins of the method to the fundamental importance of radial velocities to astronomy in general and spectroscopic binary star work, then work through the high-mass-ratio limit of SB1s, the first exoplanet discoveries, and the future of the method.

There is also a quick section giving what I think is a fair overview of the problem of stellar RV jitter, including the roles of surface gravity, granulation, oscillations, and magnetic cycles.

You can find it here.  Enjoy!

Schelling Points in SETI

How do you find someone who is also looking for you if you can’t communicate with them?

I was reading the Wikipedia article on the water hole concept in SETI, and saw under “see also” the entry “Schelling point“. Investigating led me to a fascinating bit of history.

Thomas Schelling

Thomas Schelling is a heterodox economist and foreign policy expert who won the Nobel Prize for applications of game theory to conflict. His analysis of the game theory behind nuclear warfare led to the concept of “mutually assured destruction” (with the appropriate acronym MAD) which had great influence (for better or for worse) on the nuclear arms race. His demonstration of the power of being “credibly irrational” does a lot to explain North Korea’s foreign policy. His concept of “tipping” explained how racial segregation can arise from small preferences even in the absence of government-sponsored redlining, which continues to have strong influence on housing policy.

In his seminal 1960 work The Strategy of Conflict he described a game in which the players must cooperate but cannot communicate. In order to work together, they must guess at each others’ strategies, and make sure that their own strategies are guessable. This means they should not pick the objectively best strategy, necessarily, but they should pick the strategy that is most likely to be guessed by the other—assuming they think the same way, one ends up with an infinite recursion!  But all is not lost: if you have something in common with the other player some strategies are clearly superior to others.

For instance, suppose the game is to find the other player in New York City. They are also looking for you, but you two have no way to communicate with each other. Is it reasonable to wait in a restaurant at the corner of 3rd Ave and E 56th street until they show up? No—not only is that not a particularly meaningful place, if they similarly pick a (different) random spot in the city and wait for you, you will never find each other. But there are better strategies: if your partner in the game knows anything about New York (and since they are somewhere in New York, they could ask even if they don’t) then there are certain places and times they are more likely to guess.  Landmarks like Grand Central Station and the Empire State Building are more likely common guesses than random restaurants, and times like noon are more likely for meeting up than 3:12am.

In other words, by thinking about the sorts of common knowledge you share with your partner, you can narrow down the infinite range of possible strategies and have a fighting chance of finding your partner.  The point isn’t that you could win this particular game, it’s that even in the absence of coordination there is a hierarchy of strategies, and they have more to do with the players (what they know) than the game itself. It was a brilliant insight, and the concept today is called a “focal point”.  This already has an unrelated definition in astronomy, so I prefer the (also common) term “Schelling point”.

Incredibly, even though the book was published in 1960, it contains a footnote about SETI, which had its first paper published in 1959!  He writes:

[A good example] is meeting on the same radio frequency with whoever may be signaling us from outer space. “At what frequency shall we look? A long spectrum search for a weak signal of unknown frequency is difficult.  But, just in the most favored radio region there lies a unique, objective standard of frequency, which must be known to every observer in the universe: the outstanding radio emission line at 1420 megacycles of neutral hydrogen” (Giuseppe Cocconi and Philip Morrison, Nature, Sep. 19, 1959, pp. 844-846). The reasoning is amplified by John Lear: “Any astronomer on earth would say ‘Why, 1420 megacycles of course! That’s the characteristic radio emission line of neutral hydrogen.  Hydrogen being the most plentiful element beyond the earth, our neighbors would expect it to be looked for even by tyros in astronomy'” (“The Search for Intelligent Life on Other Planets,” Saturday Review, Jan. 2, 1960, pp. 39-43). What signal to look for? Cocconi and Morrison suggest a sequence of small prime numbers of pulses, or simple arithmetic sums.

This is amazing!  I’m guessing Schelling was reading his weekly Saturday Review when he came across the article, thought it was a great example of his point, and added the footnote to his manuscript for the book, which was published later that year.

This idea has been re-invented over and over in the SETI community. Filippova called it a “Convergent strategy of mutual searches” in 1991, and before that in 1980 Makovetskii called it a “mutual strategy of search,” and a “synchrosignal” in 1977.  Guessing the “magic frequencies” at which ET might be transmitting (it was “pi times hydrogen” in Contact), where they might be transmitting, and when they might be transmitting is an exercise that founds many SETI papers.

My favorite example is Kipping & Teachey’s suggestion in their “laser cloaking” paper.  The paper is mostly about how lasers could be used to sculpt transit light curves to hide or amplify the signs of biology or technology (or of the planet itself!), but it also points out that the best time to transmit is during the time your target would see your planet transit your star (so stars exactly 12h from the Sun; especially those on the ecliptic).  This is a great Schelling point: it is an obviously special time in a planet’s orbit, it doesn’t require the transmitter or receiver to know the precise distance to each other to account for light-travel time and synchronize their efforts, and has the bonus that one might catch the attention of astronomers observing the transit for purely natural scientific reasons.

But this all goes back to Schelling and brings us to the central insight: if there are alien civilizations out there trying to get our attention, we are more likely to find their signals if we can “think like them” and ask “what can we assume they know about us?” The logic that if we have radio telescopes we will know about the 1420 MHz line is pretty solid. Mathematics seems like something we must have in common if they are technologically advanced enough to send interstellar signals, but I’m skeptical that they would find find primes as fascinating as we do (and if we assume they like pi we miss out on them if they are actually tauists).

It’s a nice illustration of how SETI forces us to look inward, as well as out, and question what it means to be human, so we can imagine what it might mean to be an alien. Since these are questions of the social sciences, it shows that SETI is much more than a physical science or engineering challenge, and needs to include anthropologists, linguists, mathematicians, and others.

You can read more examples of people suggesting Schelling points in SETI in my review chapter on exoplanets and SETI here.

Good Advising

Chanda Prescod-Weinstein wrote a valuable article for students on the warning signs of being psychologically abused by your professor.

Sadly, some advisers abuse their advisees in various ways: emotionally, physically, and sexually. This exists on a spectrum, of course: a few are serial predators, but there is a long tail up towards people who are just jerks, to people who are generally good but have some blind spots, and so on. I thought her list was a good way to help not only identify abusive professors, but to “score” professors on something like such a scale.

Reading this, I thought about which of my uncodified advising strategies encourage or discourage each of the warning signs. I then used Dr. Prescod-Weinstein’s article’s framework to try to write down what advisers should do instead—these rules both help avoid abuse of advisees, and also (I think) lend to good advising.

This list represents my own, aspirational opinion on good advising having now graduated my first “round” of students and postdocs. Some of these items are just “do the opposite of that item of Chanda’s list,” and others are inspired by my own experiences with advisees and their advice to me. I know I fail at many of these (some of those failures inspired some of these points, actually) and some I only really thought of while compiling this list, so they are new aspirations for me.

This list is meant as a complement to Chanda’s: a resource more for advisers who want to improve their advising (or, at least, strive for a style similar to the one I strive for) than for advisees to understand when they are being abused. 

Please leave your own ideas and thoughts on these ideas in the comments.

1) Praise your advisees

Say “good job” when they do a good job. Say “I like that” when they do some work you like. Say “good idea” when they have a good idea. Tell other people, in your advisees’ presence, what your advisees are doing and why you like it.

It can be hard to remember just how hard graduate school is. It is a huge amount of very slow work at a the highest intellectual level sustained for a long period of time. Encouragement is essential, and it’s easy as an adviser to forget that it needs to be explicit or it’s not there at all.

This comic resonates because this is how it feels to get any criticism about your work on a paper. Think about how you feel when you read an anonymous referee’s report: recall how it was way worse than that to get that sort of feedback from your adviser. Don’t make your advisees ask for the parts you liked; lead with that!

Note: I meant it when I wrote “good”; I did not mean to write “great”, ”outstanding”, or “genius”. Even ordinary, pedestrian steps in research are “good” because graduate students and postdocs are pre-selected to be good at research. Give your advisees a sense for what constitutes good work by telling them it’s good work. If you keep the carrot dangling in front of them in a vain effort to keep them striving for better, you’ll give them a twisted sense of what good research looks like. Give them the carrot.  

2) By default, set a positive tone with your advisees

Set a positive tone in personal and group meetings. Make smalltalk (real smalltalk; see points #10 #12 and #13). Don’t frown, scowl, or shake your head as a matter of course. Give criticism constructively and only after saying what you like about something (see point #1.)

3) Take real interest in your advisees’ projects and let them know their projects can succeed

Fist of all, remember what the project is, and where they are with it! Especially for very independent students or when things get very busy, it is surprisingly easy to lose track of what an advisee is working on. 

Even if you don’t know how their project will turn out, find the value in the results they have and state it. See point #1.

Tell others about your advisees’ work and how you’re excited about it. See point #2. If you are not excited about a student’s project, either they need a new project or they need a new adviser.

Show your interest by staying involved with the project. Meet with your advisees regularly (something like weekly, according to their level of independence and need) and monitor their progress. When they send you an email about their work, prioritize that email along with emails critical to your most important projects.

Jorge Cham’s PhD Comics can be a good way for students to commiserate and laugh about the difficulties of graduate school, but don’t let them normalize poor advising. Yes, we are supposed to recognize our advisers’ foibles in Prof. Smith (my PhD adviser once suggested a qual topic for me—months after I had passed my qual and was working on my thesis!) But remember his behavior is not supposed to be a normal part of graduate school.

4) Value your advisees’ opinions

Your advisees will disagree with you. Unless you’re sure they’re wrong for a simple reason (in which case be friendly and didactic about it) take these disagreements well and respect their opinions.

Think of it this way: either they are wrong or right. If they turn out to be right and you valued their opinion, then they will gain insight and confidence from the experience. If they turn out to be wrong and you valued their opinion, then they will gain insight and humility from the experience. Either way, you were a good adviser.

But if you belittle or ignore their opinions, then if they turn out to be right, they’ll be bitter, and if they turn out to be wrong, they’ll be demoralized. Either way, you could have handled it better.

5) Admit when you’re wrong.

“If you aren’t making mistakes, you’re not doing anything” Show your advisees by example how scientists make productive mistakes (and yes, even unproductive ones). This helps bust the “cult of smart” and teaches what science looks like.

This is especially important if an advisee was involved in the mistake. Make sure your advisees don’t feel blamed for your errors. Take responsibility for your share of being wrong, especially since you are responsible for your advisees’ research. If you screw up with something that makes their life harder, bite the bullet and make it right at your own expense—don’t make them deal with your mess. 

6) Tell your advisees to talk with other professors

Especially your undergraduates. One of the biggest confidence builders is to go to an expert and have a conversation with them about your research where you know more than them, they are interested in your work, and you have interacted as experts do. This also helps break down “cult of smart” myths by humanizing our heroes.

7) Encourage your advisees to start collaborations with other people

Science is a social endeavor. If you’re not sure where to start, start with collaborations within your group, then with other groups in the department, then beyond. Networking is an essential part of professional development. Introduce them to other groups and expect them to collaborate. Send them to meetings with a list of people to meet, and let those people know that your advisee will be there.

Also, many projects require expertise far beyond what you have—astronomy is very collaborative.  When such an item comes up, use it as an opportunity to get your advisee working with an expert on that topic. Introduce your advisee by email, make sure that expert has your advisee on their colloquium-day schedule, send your advisee to their institution for a day to learn that software, schedule a telecon to discuss the issue with your advisee sitting next to you.  Make your network their network.

8) Encourage your advisees to try things independently

Allow them to carve out a fraction of their work time to experiment without your close supervision. This is how they grow as advisees—they won’t be your advisees forever, and independence is something that should be taught and nurtured, not expected to magically appear once they graduate.

An important part of growth as a scientist is having ideas for new projects, so it’s important to encourage your advisees to identify new paths forward. Since most ideas are bad ideas, this means hearing ideas you know won’t work but encouraging the brainstorming exercise anyway. See point #5.

If their idea is too ambitious, keep it real without shooting it down. Aspirational projects are good projects, and students will often surprise you with how far they can take a project. Give them what you think they need to succeed, a realistic timescale for how long it will take, and let them shoot for the moon.

9) Let your advisees have lives outside of work/school, and let them know you don’t disapprove

Take a positive interest in your advisees’ extracurricular activities when they bring it up, but don’t pry. Mention your own extracurriculars to show your advisees that scientists can have outside interests. Be supportive of them having interests outside of work (even if you personally think they are making a mistake). This includes family matters— your job is to support their goals against the background of their family situation, not pass judgement on how to change their family situation in support of their goals.

Also, culture of science activities (communication, governance, inclusion efforts etc.) are not extracurricular. They are service to the profession (which, by the way, are part of the criteria on which faculty are judged for tenure). Support that as part of their professional development, even if it’s not the sort of service you would do yourself.

It is, of course, important to make sure advisees understand time management, have realistic timelines for completion of projects, and know what is needed from them for them to achieve their goals. But this does not mean you should disapprove that their timeline is longer than you would like it to be, and it certainly does not translate to micromanaging their personal time.

This means that except for coodinating while on observing runs or rapid follow up of transients or the like, it’s usually not even necessary to know your advisee’s cell phone number. Email, internet instant messaging, and group chats like Slack are perfectly fine ways for most advisers to stay in touch. A call on a cell phone carries an implication that they need to respond immediatey; especially outside of normal business hours, a student needs to be able to decide privately if and on what schedule they will respond to you.

10) Respect your advisee’s privacy

Unless they go missing for several days without notice or you are otherwise genuinely concerned for their personal well being, don’t snoop. Don’t cyberstalk, don’t contact their friends and ask where they are, don’t try to learn about or participate in their extracurriculars, don’t monitor when their “online” light turns green on social media, and don’t keep track of how often they email you at odd hours.  Your advisees are not your young children and you are not their guardian; they are adult colleagues in charge of managing their own time and personal lives.

That said, you are one of the first people in your advisees’ lives that will notice if something is wrong (and grad school is hard—things often go wrong). When this happens, you need to notice, you need to be there to support them in a professional way, and you need to ask how you can help. But don’t confuse that with snooping.

I used to think social media muddled this issue, but most platforms have privacy controls that let your advisees prevent you from seeing anything they’d like to keep from you. If you connect on social media (“friending”, “following”, etc.) make it clear that you expect that they will use those controls to maintain the level of privacy they want (i.e., you won’t snoop, and they shouldn’t feel bad having lives you don’t know about).

11) Accept your advisees’ judgements about what they need and how they feel

Make sure your goals for your advisee are consistent with their goals for themselves. Your advisees aren’t you. You are not printing out copies of yourself. Your advisees have their own priorities, values, and goals. Help them realize those, or else get out of the way.

This means that if your advisee tells you that they want you to change your advising style or stop behaving a certain way, don’t take it personally and don’t chastise them for it. If you really don’t want to accommodate them, think about why and whether they need a new adviser. Don’t tell them they’re wrong about how they feel and definitely don’t blame them for hurting your feelings.

This also means if an advisee is not working well with someone or has some personal reason for not pursing an opportunity you think is great, trust them. If they tell you they’ve been treated poorly by someone else, believe them.

This is especially true if they tell you they’ve been harassed or discriminated against in a way you haven’t been. They know better than you, and it is your job as their adviser to support them. If as soon as an advisee tells you they have been mistreated, you suddenly become an independent, objective trier of fact protecting the rights of the accused, you are not being a good adviser. Don’t interrogate them about whether they are sure or how they must have misinterpreted—guide your reactions by the premise that what they are saying is true. This can be especially hard if they have been mistreated by a colleague with whom you are on good personal terms. Do it anyway.

12) Keep the advisee-adviser relationship professional

Some advisers and advisees become lifelong friends. Others don’t (quite the opposite sometimes). That’s fine—it’s the same with any colleague. But no matter what, you have a professional obligation to support your advisees careers consistent with their goals.

This means keeping the relationship professional while they’re your advisee. Even if you’re becoming good friends (or the opposite) your advisee needs your objectivity, and the profession needs your professionalism as long as an advisee-adviser relationship exits.

Note that “professional” doesn’t mean “distant and unemotional.” It’s fine and good to have fun when with your advisees—group celebrations at your house or downtown etc.—and I consider it good practice to acknowledge the joy, pain, frustration, nervousness, and other emotions scientists feel as part of their jobs.

This all means different things to different people. Different advisers have different styles, and that’s fine. Rules on things like hugging, one-on-one lunch (or dinner) discussions, drinking together, leaving the office door open during meetings, and so on will vary from adviser to adviser and advisee to advisee, and will depend on factors like each person’s cultural background, comfort zones and personal space, familiarity with the other person, environment, and a lot more. It’s complicated because science is a social endeavor and social interactions among people are complicated, and hard or impossible to codify.

But no matter who you are, you should not lean on your advisees for emotional support (they may need yours, though), and certainly you should not discuss sexual topics. If you find that your advisees are the only place you have to go for such interactions, you need to remedy that situation or stop being an adviser.

Finally, some advisees will come to you with personal issues, from minor home-life matters to major life crises.  This rule should not be construed as saying that you should avoid helping them. The personal often becomes professional, and it is your professional obligation to help the students through it by supporting them, encouraging them, and giving them the tools they need to succeed (see #15). It is often a “last-chance encounter with a faculty member who [takes] the time to listen and give support [and] encourage[] them to hang in just long enough to surmount their immediate problems, and to persist” that keeps a student in the field.

But while it can help to open up here about your own experiences, this is not an opportunity to stop being professional. Indeed, it’s the time when your advisee needs your professionalism the most.

13) Respect your advisee’s personal characteristics

Unless you are very sure that you are on sufficiently familiar terms with the advisee that you will not give offense, avoid any comments about any personal characteristics, except perhaps for obvious platitudes (acknowledging a new haircut or injury, for instance). Especially avoid comments about uncontrollable aspects of their physical appearance, body parts, race, gender, sex, sexual orientation, pronouns, disability, mental health, religion, or family. Obviously negative comments are bad, but even positive comments can be gauche or misinterpreted.

It might be tempting to frame such advice as guidelines for professional behavior (“I don’t think you should give your dissertation talk with your hair dyed that color”; “people will find that tongue stud distracting”), but strongly resist such “advice” except when you really think it’s essential and the advisee genuinely does not appreciate the concern you have (“profane T-shirts are not appropriate at group meeting”).

This does not mean that you should not “see” race, gender, and other personal characteristics. You and your advisee need to be aware of how society’s perceptions of these identities will affect your advisee professionally, and this can and should be a topic of discussion. As an adviser you also need to be aware of and respect how your advisees are affected personally by these identities, especially those you do not share. But have these important conversations in a general way and let the advisee insert themselves into the topic, instead of presuming to know how they relate to their own identities.

14) Model professional behavior, even when it isn’t strictly necessary

Imagine that among your advisees are potential future bad advisers, and teach them by example every day not to be that way.

I had some downtime after the birth of one of my children in the hospital while the baby was asleep, so I opened up my laptop and started working. My wife very wisely suggested that I not send any emails to any of my group members lest I imply that I expected people to work even the day their kids are born.

So even if you’re buddies with a colleague, use a professional register when emailing them and your advisees are cc’d, give a proper not-embarrassing introduction before their colloquium, and save the not-for-the-office banter for when you’re not in the office.

Set a good example for all of your advisees in group meetings by being maximally professional. For instance, ask questions respectfully, disagree gently, don’t interrupt (especially don’t interrupt quiet people, women, or others that are often inappropriately interrupted), and don’t let others interrupt, even if you might have a more free-wheeling conversation with that person in a one-on-one setting. Don’t let your advisees behave rudely—model how you hope they will act when they see inappropriate behavior at, say, a conference.

Candid shot of a typical weekly meeting with one of my students as we deal with a referee’s report.

15) Be your advisees’ advocate…

Fight for your advisees’ future. Find out what they want, what (other than themselves) is stopping them from getting there, and how you can remove those obstacles. Ask what you can do, listen to what you’re told, and do it. Bring up their work with your colleagues. Introduce them to important contacts at meetings. Use your weight to help them win bureaucratic battles.

16) …and do it transparently (i.e. don’t be a puppetmaster).

Strive to only have conversations about your advisees you would be comfortable having them overhear. Make sure they know about and approve of any plans you have for them. If you are working behind the scenes, greasing wheels, or machinating for their benefit, keep your advisees fully apprised of your actions (except where you are bound by some sort of confidentiality). This includes mentioning them as job candidates, suggesting they work with a collaboration on a project, and getting funding to support them. Pulling back the curtain shows your advisees how science works and lets them know that you are working in their interest, and lets them give you feedback on your efforts.


16 points is a lot to remember, but Sharon Wang boiled them down to specific examples of the two indispensable, orthogonal qualities of a good adviser: respect and responsibility. If you are embodying these qualities in all of your interactions, you’re probably doing all right.

This list has benefitted from input from Fabienne Bastien, Sharon Wang, Angie Wolfgang, and Jason Curtis.

Star-Planet Interactions, and Jupiter Analogs

Waaaaay back in 2015 the International Astronomical Union held its General Assembly in Honolulu. I went and gave a review talk on star-planet interactions at a Focus Meeting.

One nice thing (in the long run) about these Focus Meetings is that they generate proceedings that get published. It’s sort of old-fashioned now, but it’s still nice to see these proceedings because they often contain things not in refereed papers: preliminary, unrefereed results that turn out to be important later, and overarching but concise syntheses of lots of work in a way that is useful for understanding but not really appropriate for a refereed article on novel research.

(I write “in the long run” above because having to actually write the proceedings can be a pain, and because they seem to take fooorrrreeevvvveeeerrrr to finally get published.)

Brendan Miller

Well, I was going through my CV for my end-of-sabbatical report (7 more days!) when I remembered that Brendan Miller and I put in a proceedings for the 2015 summer meeting!  Whatever happened to it?  Turns out it was published a while ago and somehow I missed it (which is weird because I have a copy of that book on my shelf…)

Anyway, our contribution is now belatedly on the arXiv.  Here’s what’s in it:

We really want to study the magnetic fields of exoplanets. It seems sort of hopeless—magnetic fields don’t have that much energy and it’s hard enough to figure out a planet’s mass, much less this little detail—but there is hope.

One hope is that close-in exoplanets will have their magnetic fields interact with their host star’s magnetic fields, causing magnetic activity on the star that we can detect in the calcium H&K lines. There had been suggestions in the literature that this was happening, as magnetic “hot-spots” beneath close-in planets rotated in and out of view, but follow up of those systems found the effect to be difficult to reproduce.  I think it was noise.

Another hope was that there was an overall increase in the level of activity in stars with close-in exoplanets.  If you took a sample of stars with and without close-in planets, were the ones with close-in planets more active?  Turns out that’s hard, because there are lots of biases in the way we detect close-in planets (via transit) that might make it more or less likely to find them around active stars in the first place.  Brendan and I wrote a paper where we looked at the evidence (and gathered some ourselves) and concluded there’s no signal to we can dig out of all of the noise.

But there are clear cases where there is star-planet interaction, just by another route: close-in, very massive planets seem to be able to spin up their stars, which makes them more magnetically active.  That probably drives the small amount of correlation we do see.

Then Brendan took a look at WASP-18, which should have one of the strongest planet-induced activity levels around if that’s a thing, and found it’s not elevated in X rays.  Bust there, too.

One thing we did not have time or space to touch on in the article was the one way that magnetic fields do seem to have been detected, via bow shocks., which is a shame but was fortunately covered later in the session.

There is one more bit in the paper that has been dribbling out slowly over the past few years, too. One of my earliest interesting papers was announcing the discovery of the first really good Jupiter analog HD 154345 b.  It’s around a G star, has about an 8 year circular orbit, and is around one Jupiter mass.

One gotcha is that the planet has the same orbital period (and phase!) as the star’s magnetic activity cycle. That’s not too surprising: stars’ cycles tend to be around 10 years, and so some will inevitably have planets at similar periods. The phase matchup is a further inevitable coincidence. After all, our stablest stars, like σ Draconis, have big strong magnetic activity cycles and those don’t create phantom planets in our radial velocity measurements.

Or so we argued in the paper. Well, since then, the coincidence between activity and RV has been getting better and better, and as early as seven years ago I had been conceding that this might be a rare, strong activity-RV coincidence.  I mentioned it in at the first EPRV Workshop (you can see it in the slides here) and again at the 20th anniversary of 51 Peg conference in Haute Provence.

Well, here it is again, in our review:

This is one of those cases where I really should get this into a refereed paper, but I’m busy, and more data will make the case stronger, and retractions are hard to get motivated to write.  Anyway, this has been out there for a while in unrefereed form (and actually disputed! though I still think the planet is probably wrong) but I hope to get it properly written up this fall.

Anyway, that’s the news from Lake Wobegon, where all the planets are Earth-like, all the objects are Rosetta Stones, and all the signals are significant.

 

Clickbait and Sensationalism

Journalism has been in trouble since… well maybe since forever but it certainly feels more precarious since the World Wide Web destroyed most print journalism as a viable stand-alone business. The New York Times and Washington Post have hung on with quality journalism, but not without moving to a heavy online presence and worrying a lot about generating “clicks” (at least on the business side).

One way to survive is to generate lots of those clicks, and that means “clickbait”—provocative headlines that dare you to ignore them. Whether you find this to be outrageous or just a fact of business probably depends on how exposed you have been to it.  I imagine most journalists take it as a given that headlines and ledes must generate clicks and scrolls in order for them to have jobs, but that what really matters is the meat of the article.

It would be nice if it weren’t so, especially when it’s your science being hyped. Yesterday I wrote about Sabine Hossenfelder’s Forbes article and along the way defended it against accusations that it was “sloppy journalism” and representative “the frenzied sensation-driven nature of mainstream publishing” mostly by linking to it, quoting it, and being incredulous at those descriptions. Some have disagreed with that assessment:

First of all let me sympathize: it is mortifying to see your research in print in a way that sensationalizes it.

Next, let me point out that this is not even close to yellow journalism. I know yellow journalism, and Forbes, senator, is no yellow journalism.1

So maybe it’s because I’ve seen a lot worse and I’ve written for popular outlets and my student Kimberly Cartier wrote a thesis about science communication that I’ve become inured to the way that headlines beg for clicks, even if they don’t represent the meat of the article well.

But I think in this case the Forbes article is actually not in that camp. With the benefit of hindsight or insider knowledge, it might look overblown, but consider:

  1. At the time it was written, there was no LIGO response to go on.
  2. Hossenfelder contacted LIGO and they had no formal response—and said they planned none!
  3. Hossenfelder then got a third party to comment, and they found “the results “quite disturbing” and hope[d] that the collaboration will take the criticism of the Danes to heart. ‘Until LIGO will provide clear scientific (!) explanation why these findings are wrong, I would say the result of the paper to some extent invalidates the reliability of the LIGO discovery.’”
  4. We all know that the scientific literature is often understated, especially when suggesting someone is wrong. An abstract that concludes “A clear distinction between signal and noise therefore remains to be established in order to determine the contribution of gravitational waves to the detected signals.” has a pretty clear meaning: the GW detections are in jeopardy.
  5. After all, the strongest signal was 5.1-sigma.  If there is any reason to think the noise is underestimated then the signal drops below the 5-sigma level.  Now I appreciate that the difference between “significant” and “not significant” is not Itself statistically significant,” but the “New York Times threshold” is actually the one place where which side of 5-sigma you are on absolutely matters!

Given all these items, I think the headline and fInal introductory sentence of the Forbes article is fine:

Was It All Just Noise? Independent Analysis Casts Doubt On LIGO’s Detections

…But what if there wasn’t a signal at all, but rather patterns and correlations in the noise that fooled us into believing we were seeing something that wasn’t real? A group of Danish researchers just submitted a paper arguing that the celebration might have been premature.

Especially given the 5.1 sigma issue, I think that’s totally fair. The paper did cast doubt, none of Hossenfelder’s followup investigations dispelled that doubt, and “celebration might have been premature” is an accurate description of the implications if the detection was actually only, say 2.5-sigma (and Creswell et al. implied it could be much lower than that, IMO).

Anyway, YMMV on this. We can agree that it would be nice if popular journalism were as sober as The New Yorker and as popular as cat memes, but I think we can also agree that that will not happen.

The only practical solutions I see to the larger problem are:

  • Get scientists better at science communication.
  • Appreciate those that are good at it and see them and the work they do as an important part of our profession (the aforementioned Kimberly Cartier included a chapter on this as part of her PhD thesis in Astronomy & Astrophysics—I hope in the future this will not seem novel).
  • Make sure that when our work pops up in the media we know how to manage it. Especially a large, high-profile project like LIGO should have1 team members (or access to professionals) that know how to quickly manage stories.

After all, if LIGO had told Hossenfelder that it was planning a response that completely addressed the Creswell et al. paper and showed it was based entirely on poor analysis, her article would have had a different conclusion and different tone (if it had been written at all!). They had an opportunity to get in front of it and shape the Forbes article, but they did not.

But it all turned out OK: their eventual (though unofficial) response is solid and succeeded because they put it on Sean Carrol’s popular and respected blog instead of waiting for the peer review process. Now the story can be “nothing to see here, move along” and, as a bonus, the referee of the Creswell et al. paper has a great template for their review. Double bonus: now the world understands LIGO better!

1For the kids: Bentsen-Quayle.

[Edit: Hannam responds (click to expand):

]

1I don’t mean to imply LIGO doesn’t have such people—on the contrary I mean that the (by all accounts very good) people it has are essential.

Outreach and Response

What good are blogs?

The LIGO collaboration recently made headlines, made an epoch, and earned itself an all-but-certain Nobel Prize, for the detection of gravitational waves.

Recently, an unrefereed paper appeared on the arXiv questioning the strength of the detections. In brief, LIGO uses two detectors separated by 2,000 miles to filter out noise by looking for coincident signals: real gravitational waves will affect both sites equally, but local sources of vibration should be uncorrelated between the sites.  The Danish authors, who include a scientist name Andrew Jackson, took some public LIGO data of the detection, did some analysis of it, and found that the noise appeared to be correlated between the two sites.  At the very least, they argue, this means that the LIGO collaboration has overestimated the strength of their signal.

It’s a provocative claim: that a major milestone in physics could be a mistake, revealed by a relatively straightforward analysis that any physicist could understand. When I heard about it, I thought “that’s probably wrong, but I’m curious why it is that the sites have correlated noise and how the LIGO team deals with that.”

Sabine Hossenfelder is a theoretical physicist, blogger, and freelance science journalist. She apparently had similar thoughts to mine, and used them as the basis for a column in Forbes on the topic. It’s a nice piece of science popularization, that explains the issue in an accessible way.  She, very responsibly, went to the LIGO team for a response:

Jackson is no unknown to the LIGO collaboration. Upon my inquiry with a member of the LIGO collaboration what to make of the paper, I got the annoyed reply that the collaboration’s management recommends to “respectfully respond that we have talked at some length with the group in the past and do not agree on the methods being used and thus with the conclusions.” Another let me know that a response is not planned.

She also walks the reader through some of the problems with the claim.  I found the column illuminating, but wished I had a better explanation of the issue. I was intrigued!  Hossenfelder concludes:

Making sense of somebody else’s data is tricky, as I can confirm from my own experience. Therefore, I think it is likely the Danish group made a mistake. Nevertheless, I would like to see a clear-cut explanation and “they did something wrong” is too vague for my comfort. This is a Nobel-worthy discovery and much is at stake. Even the smallest doubt that something is at odds should be erased.

Right! But even beyond the issue of how if they want their Nobel they should make sure there is no doubt, there’s also a general outreach angle: gravitational waves are a very popular topic, and this paper, however annoying, had the effect of raising interest in a particular aspect of the science. This paper provided the LIGO collaboration with an opportunity to cash in on that level of interest and explain this particular aspect of the science.

And they did. A member of the collaboration, with the blessing of the collaboration, wrote a guest post on Sean Carroll’s popular blog.  It was just what I hoped to read: an accessible (to me, anyway) discussion of why the Danish group’s analysis is almost certainly wrong and naive, along with a quick tutorial on how LIGO makes sure it doesn’t make similar mistakes.

The whole thing to me was a good example of how various levels of science communication can work: the arXiv (for better or for worse) provided a formal forum for a team to make a scientific claim of high visibility before peer review; the science column provided a way for a professional scientist to engage the public in the issue; the science blog provided a way for the team to make an informal but quick and almost definitive response to what was apparently a straightforward mistake by the Danish group (thus illustrating why one shouldn’t make provocative, unrefereed claims on the arXiv: you’ll usually end up being very publicly wrong).

Then there was a blog post by Mark Hannam on the whole episode.  Now, I get that the LIGO team is understandably frustrated by this sort of high profile sniping by a team that apparently didn’t know what they are doing, and annoyed that they have to spend time putting out these PR fires. The mature response is to turn it into a teaching moment, and they did with the Carroll guest blog post. Now the broader community understands better, the Danish team’s mistake is laid bare, and everyone knows more physics than they did before.

But Hannam doesn’t reserve his fire for the Danish group.  He actually says the thing that annoys him most about the whole thing is Hossenfelder writing it up in Forbes! He refers to her “sloppy journalism” and “the frenzied sensation-driven nature of mainstream publishing”. Did he read the same article the rest of us did?  Take a look for yourself.

Hannam is annoyed that the “controversy” played out it real time and not at the pace of peer reviewed paper. I expressed my eye-rolling at Hannam’s post on Twitter, and got some pushback, mostly because in the confines of 140 characters it looked like I was attacking the LIGO collaboration. It went over to Facebook, and a lot of people disagreed with me.  Some excerpts of rebuttals:

“the methods used for the discovery have been laid out in excruciating detail”

Well, yes, but saying that interested people could figure out the problem by reading your papers is terrible popular science communication; it’s much faster and more efficient for someone to take some time to explain it to everyone briefly than to expect everyone else to take a couple of days to digest the papers and figure out for themselves what the Danish team did wrong.

Of course, you don’t have to communicate your science well in general, but it’s sort of an obligation when your project is on the front page of the New York Times and in the running for a Nobel.

“Younger scientists may think it is cool to have open discussion with non-peer-reviewed arxiv-postings but that’s busy work that takes away from more important analysis and when I was a student/postdoc that’s what conferences were for”

The quick answer is that blogs are cheaper, more far-reaching, and faster than conferences, so why prefer conferences for this particular item?  And it is only “busy work that takes away from more important analysis” if you think communicating your science is not important. If you think it’s part of your job, then you know you have to do it anyway, so it makes sense to focus your efforts on items that already have the public’s attention, like the Danish team’s paper.

Ok, let’s consider an analogy. Recently, we did a press release for a paper that got picked up by a few people, and there were several articles, some with open online comments. And some of those comments (trying to think of a non-“scornful” way to say this) strongly disagreed with our work while exhibiting a lack of familiarity with the subject. Would Jason Wright and James Guillochon suggest that I “missed a teaching opportunity” by not engaging with the comments?

Well, yes, obviously, but not a very big one. Responding to every comment on every article is obviously inefficient and doesn’t scale. But when the whole world is watching your team and your results are influencing in billion-dollar space missions decisions and a Nobel Prize hangs in the balance, it doesn’t seem unreasonable to have some kind of public response to news stories on an accusation from your colleagues that you’ve made a huge mistake.

This is actually a great argument for science blogs: it’s a way to quickly, very publicly make an arbitrarily-detailed response to things like an unrefereed arXiv post. They let you balance the time you put into the response to the claim you’re responding to.

For instance, instead of putting out fires as they come up on Twitter and Facebook as a result of my off-the-cuff tweet, I can have a blanket response to all of them in one big post I can link to.  It’s the same reason that people hold press conferences instead of answering phone calls from reporters all day (but on a much smaller scale, of course).

As I said, if I were the LIGO team I would be annoyed by the episode, but the things that would annoy me the least are that the world showed an intense interest in my work, that I had to explain my science to that interested audience, and that I got to show up a gadfly on a big stage.

[Edit: More responses and details in my next post]

[Edit: Hannam responds (click to expand):

]

 

Tabby doing a Q&A on the WTF star on Twitter

Tabby just did a 20-questions-and-answers thing on Twitter.  I found it hard to read the whole thread, so I’ve compiled it here.  Enjoy!

 

 

Two New Tabby’s Star Papers

Amidst the huge task of collating all of the data coming in from the May 20, 2017 dip, two papers have hit the arXiv.  I don’t have any updates on the data from the dip (we haven’t had time to do any detailed analyses yet), but the live chat I did on Friday is still mostly valid:

except to say that the dip has maybe ended:

Today there are two new papers on the arXiv on the subject.  I haven’t had time to do deep dives on them (and neither is refereed yet) but here are my hot takes:

The first is by Ballesteros et al. (MNRAS, submitted) and they try to model the dips with a gigantic planet with a huge ring system and huge swarms of trojan asteroids.  In other words, their model puts a lot of stuff in a 6 au orbit around the star, which is far enough away that it would be pretty cold.  They point out that the deep, asymmetric dip at Kepler day 793 occurs about half way in the middle of a pretty quiescent period for Tabby’s Star.  They associate the other dips with swarms of trojan asteroids—asteroids in the same orbit as the planet but leading or trailing the planet by 60 degrees.

Some strengths of the model:

  • They claim that they can model the deep D793 event as a giant (0.3 solar radii!) planet with a tilted ring system and that they will do this in a later paper
  • They get the overall pattern of the dips explained: Kepler just caught the back of the pack of leading trojan asteroids when it started observing, then the planet at day 793, then the trailing swarm at the end of its mission
  • In what must have been a hastily written addition, they attribute the May 20 event to a secondary eclipse of the planet behind the star. This comes with a prediction: the event will be no longer than the D793 event (which was actually very long), but they say no more than 2-4 days.  They say that the secondary eclipse depth could be as deep as 3% (about what we see).  I note it should also be pretty achromatic, unless the reflectivity of the planet is a strong function of wavelength.
  • They emphasize that their model appeals only to likely, conventional astrophysics (though when it comes to 0.3 solar radius planets and a Jupiter-mass of asteroids in a swarm, your mileage may vary on that one).
  • They have a really nice diagram!

Some drawbacks:

  • They need a lot of asteroids: they don’t actually say how much, but the number they do give is huge: over a Jupiter mass of them!  It’s not clear to me how stable such a swarm could be co-orbital to an actual planet.  Part of the reason Jupiter’s trojan asteroids work as they do is that they don’t really perturb Jupiter. Also, how do you keep a Jupiter mass of material from collapsing or falling into the planet?  Also, where would you get a Jupiter mass of rock?!
  • They cannot explain the secular dimming seen by Montet & Simon and Schaefer, which they say must have a different cause.
  • They do not confront the infrared and mm upper limits, especially those of Thompson et al. (whom they do not even cite) that put no more than a millionth of an Earth mass of dust hotter than 160K.  I would think that an asteroid swarm dense enough to have an optical depth near 1 along some lines of sight (22% dips!) would also generate some serious dust, as would those rings.
  • They will need a pretty strange sort of planet to have a detectable secondary eclipse out at 6AU.  They claim that a Bond albedo of 0.34 will do it, but my back-of-the-envelope calculation says no way this could work (a perfectly reflective 15 solar radius circle (for the ginormous rings of this planet) at 6 au intercepts about 1 ten thousandth of the stellar flux, not 3% of it).  If it’s really emitted light then it should be pretty red, so the May 20, 2017 dip should be hard to see in the blue.
  • I think the slopes of the dips are too steep; material at 6 au moves pretty slowly. They could easily calculate this.

But kudos to them for putting an idea out there with concrete predictions!

The second paper is by J. Katz.  I’m glad to see this one in principle—Steinn and I suggested an object in the outer solar system could be responsible and hoped someone would work that out, and here’s a paper working it out!  Weirdly, Katz cites us but don’t mention our suggestion.  Anyway glad to see it.

This is a strange paper, though. There is no comment that it has been submitted to any journal to be refereed—it’s possible this is all we get.  It’s called “Tabetha’s Rings”—I don’t think I’ve ever seen just a modern astronomer’s first name in a paper title before.  Katz refers to the star as “Tabetha’s Star” which is also strange (because the star needed another name, right?).

Katz suggests that a ringed object in the outer solar system could be responsible for the dips…and not much else.  Some of the implications are worked out, but some of the math seems wrong to me (he predicts that the dips will be visible every 365.25 days from earth, which ignores the orbital motion of that object).  I kept expecting Katz to bring up the rings of asteroids but it never came up.

Anyway, I hope Katz develops this model further and describes things like the spectral and photometric properties of the dips his model implies, and discusses, for instance, the mass of the object hosting the rings (at least!). I’d really like to see a fleshed out version of this paper in the refereed literature.

OK, the kids are off to school so time to get back to the disaster area that is my inbox…

Activity from calcium

The atmosphere of the Sun (and other stars) contains calcium. It contains most of the elements, actually, just like the Earth does. As light that emerges from the sun passes through this cooler atmospher, two specific colors of very blue light, corresponding to specific transitions of electrons in a calcium ion, have a hard time getting through because they get absorbed by the calcium. These colors are “missing” from the solar spectrum, and Fraunhofer, who established much of our notation for spectral features, labeled them “H.” Later astronomers gave the two wavelengths separate names, and today we call them the H and K lines.1

The sun is “dark” at these wavelengths (this light doesn’t get through the lower atmosphere), so the much hotter upper atmosphere of the sun (the chromosphere) stands in good contrast against it, especially because the chromosphere is bright at these wavelengths (this is not a coincidence—the same transitions that make calcium in the lower atmosphere a good absorber make the upper atmosphere an efficient emitter at the same wavelengths.)

National Solar Observatory image of the sun in the wavelength of the ionized calcium K line.

You cannot see the usual “surface” of the sun at these wavelengths; that light has all been absorbed by calcium ions. In this image you are looking at the upper atmosphere of the sun.  Here, the brighter regions are hotter, and they tend to cluster around sunspots.  This is because sunspots are caused by intense magnetic fields on the sun, and these fields reconnect and deposit energy high in the sun’s atmosphere, heating it and making it shine at this wavelength. The sun has an 11-year activity cycle, and if one makes measurements like in this image, one can clearly see this cycle as the total number of sunspots rises and falls over the course of a decade.

Now, in other stars we cannot see sunspots, but we can measure the amount of H and K line emission.  Imagine this image of the sun was taken from so far away, you could not make out the sun’s disk.  The five bright “active” regions (near the sunspots) would add up to make the point of light that is the sun look brighter at this color than it would if those regions weren’t there.  This means that you could tell how much magnetic activity—sunspots and related things—was going on on the sun by how bright it was at this color. Watch long enough, and you could tell that the sun had activity cycles!

This is the philosophy behind the pioneering Mount Wilson H & K project, undertaken by Art Vaughn, George Preston, Sallie Baliunas and many others from 1966-2002.  They measured the brightness of around 100 sun-like stars for decades to watch the rise and fall of their activity levels.  The technique is now used at many observatories.

One of the big things people look for is an analog to the solar Maunder Minimum, a period from just after the discovery of sunspots by Galileo lasting about 70 years during which there were almost no sunspots. No one knows why the sun apparently stopped its magnetic cycle for so long, but if we could catch another star doing it, then maybe we could figure it out. The Mount Wilson project identified several sun-like stars with no sunspot cycles—victory!

But in 2005 I published a paper as a graduate student showing that this was actually a mistake. All of these “Maunder-minimum-like” stars had had their distances measured since the Mount Wilson project made their discovery, and most or all of them all turned out to be much farther away than expected—which means they were much brighter than we thought.  Why? Because they’re not really much like the sun—they are subgiants, not ordinary main sequence stars, and we don’t expect subgiants to have strong magnetic fields.2  So it turned out the Maunder minimum was still sort of a mystery.

But wait!  In star clusters one knows the distance to all of the stars, so one won’t get fooled by subgiants.  Mark Giampapa and others have looked at truly sun-like stars in M67, an open cluster of stars a lot like the sun, and found that some of them have calcium H & K emission way below what the sun has even at solar minimum—there they are! Maunder-minimum-like stars!

Jason Curtis, now an NSF postdoctoral fellow a Columbia University

In an amusing symmetry, my former graduate student, Jason Curtis, has looked into this and discovered that because M67 is so far away, you have to worry about another source of absorption: the interstellar medium.  This gas between the stars is very sparse—the Mount Wilson stars are all too close to have their light affected by it.  But M67 is very far away, and there is a lot of this gas in the way. This gas is made of the same stuff everything else is—including calcium!

Maybe you can see where this is going.  The calcium in the interstellar medium absorbs calcium H & K light, making the stars appear dimmer at those wavelengths, and so our magnetic activity measurements end up giving erroneously low values. Once you correct for that absorption, it turns out that there aren’t really any anomalously inactive stars in M67.

So Jason’s new paper on this topic points out that, once again, stars that we thought were good Maunder minimum stars are, in fact, not—in this case, they’re just behind more interstellar calcium than we’re used to seeing in front of nearby stars.

You can read his (single author!) paper here on the arXiv now that it has been accepted to the Astronomical Journal.


1Jay Pasachoff pointed me to this history of notation for the H & K lines. Fraunhofer did not discover them, and the “K” line terminology came much later.  Jason Curtis points me to this amusing mistake, where the letters are misinterpreted as standing for “hydrogen” and “potassium”.


2More on this, including an amusing anecdote about a “Marshall McLuhan moment” at my first colloquium, here.

Who Should Be an Author on a Paper? V: Some Errata

It looks like my post was based on the old AAS Ethics Statement, not the more recent Code of Ethics.  That’s fine, but it means the language I quoted was not the latest.  The language on who should be an author is the same, so the heart of my posts are unchanged.

But now, the Code says:

As stated in the National Academy of Science document On Being a Scientist, “The list of authors establishes accountability as well as credit,” and “an author who is willing to take credit for a paper must also bear responsibility for its errors or explain why he or she had no professional responsibility for the material in question.”

So this directly addresses one of the most common objections I’m getting (which is not really an objection to my proposal per se, as I’ve said).  Right there, in black and white, it says that authors may: “explain why he or she had no professional responsibility for the material in question.”

So this part of my proposal really isn’t very radial at all; it’s right there in the new Code of Ethics!

Also present is this new bit:

Data provided by others must be cited appropriately, even if obtained from a public database.

Which I think everyone agrees on.  My entire premise was “what if there is no appropriate citation?” and I’m asking “what does appropriate mean?” I argue that if there is nothing to cite that “counts” today, then this clause can’t be followed, so it no longer overrides the earlier co-authorship requirement.

Finally, on the obligations of co-authors it says:

Every coauthor has an obligation to review a manuscript before its submission, and every coauthor should have the opportunity to do so.

Which is a stronger statement than was in the old policy, but doesn’t affect my argument at all.

The other strain of reaction I’ve gotten is suggestions for reforming our citation and credit system, including adding levels of contributions to papers below “authorship.”  I’m all for that; my proposal had to do with what to do with the system we have in the meantime.

 

Who Should Be an Author on a Paper? IV: Practical Ethics of Authorship

Part I is here.  You’ll need to read it and prior entries for context.

Let me start this final(?) part with a formal statement of my suggestion:

In general, researchers writing a paper that uses unpublished or otherwise unciteable data they did not produce should invite the proposers/observers/producers of that data to be co-authors.

Now, there are many situations where following my co-authorship suggestion isn’t practical. Maybe there are not well defined “proposers”. Maybe the data are 30 years old and widely used. Maybe there is a timeliness or competitive issue that precludes letting the proposer know what you’re working on. Maybe the proposing team didn’t actually do a lot of work to make the observations happen. Maybe the proposer is a social pariah or one of your more important co-authors refuses to be on a paper with them. Maybe you’re on a deadline and simply don’t have time. Maybe you’re in a collaboration whose authorship rules preclude adding these people to the paper. Depending on the specifics of a situation, those might be part of completely legitimate reasons to go ahead and publish without them.

Ethics is often a case-by-case subject; broadly written rules can become outdated, or fail to anticipate pathological cases, or obviously fail in corner cases, or just be too vague to apply to edge cases.  Personal ethics also come into play: we do not all share the same values, and do not all take the same approach to collaboration. Ethics also depend on expectations of the community, and those can change.

But I think our community’s expectation and standard that we never need to include the people who took otherwise unciteable data as co-authors is wrong and should change. 

I encourage my colleagues to consider adopting a presumption that the observers/proposers of public but unpublished data should be invited as co-authors, and even taken on as collaborators early in the project. If there are good reasons not to do so, that’s fine, but those reasons should be articulated and considered and weighed against the good reasons to the contrary before a decision is made.

So before rejecting this presumption, astronomers should ask themselves:

  • Why not include them?
  • What does it really cost me to include them?
  • Why not gain a collaborator?  Why not have a longer author list?
  • What would I want them to do if the roles were reversed?

In many cases, the answers to these questions might lead authors to conclude that the producers of the data should not be co-authors, and that’s fine.

But let’s ask these questions more often.


Finally, because Josh Peek got me off on this tangent on Twitter, inspired my particular example, and is working on the MAST data policy which will guide this sort of thing, let me suggest a concrete policy for MAST, consistent with my proposal and the AAS Ethics Policy:

  1. Propriety only concerns who can see and use data. It is silent on the issues of authorship. Public data are in the public domain and anyone may download them and use them as they see fit.
  2. STScI will provide guidance to users of its data products on how to properly credit STScI and its employees for their work. This is probably something like: include the boilerplate acknowledgement, and cite such and such papers describing the instrument and analysis methods.
  3. STScI should have an internal policy for how its many scientists accrue credit (citations and authorship) for their work on projects that produce data, especially for papers produced with public data they enabled. This policy should be consistent with community norms and (hopefully) the AAS Ethics Policy (which may need to change).

That’s it!  If authors want to scoop others and not give them co-authorship, that’s not MAST’s problem (indeed, it is part of MAST’s charter to enable such scooping!).  The AAS Committee on Ethics may be interested in that author list, of course, but I see no reason (or mechanism!) for MAST to be telling its users what they can do with public domain data except publish publish publish.

OK, that’s it.  Flame on!  I will probably update this thread with more entries as good ideas roll in.

[Edit: One more post!  I linked to the old Code of Ethics.  The new one actually further supports my position, I think.]

Who Should Be an Author on a Paper? III: A Proposal

In Part I I suggested a modest apparently radical proposal. In Part II I laid the groundwork for defending it. Now, let the games begin.

To recap my concrete example, Joe and his team took public data from the HST archive as soon as they landed (this is public DDT time) and have written a paper with it.  The proposing team includes PI Candice and departed members Amber and Brie, and Candice has also written (but not submitted) a paper on the data. Should Candice offer Amber and Brie authorship on her paper (yes, I think we all agree). Should Joe offer the proposing team members Amber, and Brie authorship on his paper?

I say “yes,” because they contributed to Joe’s paper just as much as to Candice’s! The whole proposing team should be offered co-authorship. This is not current practice.

The easiest way to defend my proposal is by responding to some objections I saw when I proposed this on Twitter. I won’t link to individual tweets because I’ve rephrased some of these to be easier to rebut (hey, it’s my blog!)

But the data are public!  That means I can use the data however I want and I don’t have to include the proposers.
Also: That’s what proprietary periods are for! Once it’s over I no longer owe the proposers co-authorship.

No, data propriety only has to do with who is allowed to look at and use the data. Once the data are public, anyone can look at the data, work on the data, and publish the data. 

But that does not absolve them from their duty to properly acknowledge and credit the producers of the data. This is obvious when the data are already published. Of course you cite the origin of data you use in a paper. So ask yourself: why does the lack of a paper to cite make the procurers of the data any less responsible for their production, or you any less responsible for acknowledging that contribution in a way they get credit for?

But if they never publish their data, that’s effectively an infinite proprietary period.

Again, no: you can use and publish the data. That’s a completely separate issue from whether you have to give credit where it is due.

Why should I give co-authorship to someone that didn’t work on the paper?

Because they effectively did work on the paper as soon as you used their data in it. Since you are using their work you have to give them credit they can use.

But I list the PI’s name and the proposal number in the acknowledgements. That’s credit!

It is credit in a literal sense, but not in any sense relevant to the ethical issue here. ADS will not track it, it won’t appear on their CV or h-index, etc. It would be nice if we had a better way to track this kind of credit than these ways, and I would be very open to an overhaul of how academics give and receive credit.  But until then we need to act ethically in the environment we do live in.

If they wanted co-authorship they should have published sooner.  The fear of getting scooped is what keeps us productive. This would provide a perverse incentive to collect data and never publish it.

These are not ethical arguments. They boil down to: “their sloth justifies my theft.”

But taking on potentially hostile co-authors is not a good idea. Forced collaboration is a terrible idea.

I absolutely agree!

(And let’s put aside the question of why this person would be hostile towards you, and how you’re sure you’re in the right.  After all, as I discussed in Part I, being allowed to do something doesn’t mean you’re not being a jerk for doing it. But let’s assume arguendo you’re in the clear and they’re hostile for some other reason than your misbehavior.)

Here’s what I think the radical part of my suggestion is based on:

co-authorship does not have to mean collaboration

The minimal rights of co-authors are actually set out in the AAS Ethics statement:

All collaborators share responsibility for any paper they coauthor, and every coauthor should have the opportunity to review a manuscript before its submission. It is the responsibility of the first author to ensure these.…All authors are responsible for providing prompt corrections or retractions if errors are found in published works with the first author bearing primary responsibility.

See? No real collaboration beyond the opportunity to review a manuscript. If Candice, Amber, or Brie (all of whom have been offered co-authorship) make demands on the paper that Joe’s team disagrees with, Joe has every right to say “no” and the proposers have every right to stay off of the paper.

But that’s not really a choice. If these teams don’t want to collaborate, then the proposing team shouldn’t be on a paper where they did not get a say in the methods and conclusions. They might even disagree with the conclusions! And if they make a principled stand and decline to be on a paper they disagree with, they don’t get the credit they deserve.

This is true, but this is not a problem with my proposal: it’s a problem with the concept of co-authorship in general, and it comes up all the time. Many co-authors do not agree with papers or in some cases do not even read papers they are on. Regardless of how severe a problem you think this is with our current model, it is not an excuse to keep proposing teams off of your paper.

But it’s also not a general solution: ethically people must refuse authorship if they disagree with a paper. As co-authors they would be “responsible” for it, after all.

Because this is a general problem, and not an objection to my proposal per se, I offer my general solution: I favor requesting that every author provide a one-sentence description of their contribution to the paper. If an author is only on the paper because they took the data, they should state exactly that.

So if an author disagrees with the content of the paper they can add that in, too (it would be reasonable to limit such qualifications to, say, 140 characters in most cases; a bit more if necessary). That way everyone’s contribution and responsibility for the result is clear and unambiguous, and credit lands where it is due. I have done this several times, even though there were no contentious issues to hash out.  In this way authors can state exactly what their responsibility for a paper is, if they like.

I still think it’s wrong to bring on co-authors from competing teams that didn’t even contribute to the text of a paper!

I don’t think this is really at the emotional core of objections to my proposal.

Many of us have had to deal with that that one senior team member that totally slacked off and didn’t even send in comments and may not have even read the manuscript. They probably don’t really deserve to be a co-author, but we still include them with little more than a tinge of annoyance because that’s the community norm: you invited them on at the beginning, and you should presume that they read the manuscript and were happy with it and had nothing to add, and it would be rude and awkward to take them off. Yes, sticklers should insist will that they contribute or take their name off, but this situation does not arouse the sort of reflexive opposition that my proposal does.

Whereas the thought of adding members of a competing team as similarly “silent” co-authors makes us uncomfortable, even tough they unequivocally contributed much more than the slacker to the science and an equal amount to the manuscript.

Why do we feel so differently about these situations? Not because the proposing team is less deserving of authorship than the slacker, clearly. It’s partly because they are “the competition” perhaps, but mostly, I think, because it’s the community norm that we don’t invite strangers onto our papers.

I assert that this norm is unethical and we should change it.

In the next part: some practical issues and final thoughts, including a skeleton data policy proposal for MAST (for Josh).

Who Should Be an Author on a Paper? II: Credit as Currency

In Part I I argued that if you use other peoples’ data in your own paper, you should offer them co-authorship on your paper.  In this part, let me make flesh out the theory behind my proposal, in particular why the policy exists, so that we can apply it where appropriate.

I had a math professor in college who made an analogy that has stuck with my all my career: the product of the Academy is ideas and research output and the currency we use to trade in this product is credit.  We cite, we co-author, we acknowledge. This is at the heart of the AAS Ethics Statement’s rule: if someone did work that made your paper possible, you pay them back with credit in the form of a co-authorship.

Now, the policy is clearly too broad. Sometimes the appropriate currency is a citation, not co-authorship.  In particular, if data have already been published then the norm in our profession is that you don’t need to include them as a co-author; you can just cite the publication.

In many cases, successful proposals are citable and appear on ADS. This provides another way to give credit for using other people’s data, although it is imperfect because proposals are rarely cited, so it’s not really a good way to accrue credit. It’s not a currency that is generally recognized by, say, promotion and tenure committees. If we could change that (make the citations worth more and make them common) it would solve the problem, but that seems more radical to me than my proposal.

Also, the AAS Policy does not define its scope. Which enablers of science deserve authorship?  The AAS guidelines are no help here.  What about the armies of PhD astronomers at STScI and IPAC that enable and reduce NASA space telescope data? The engineers who built the telescopes? The telescope operators? The staff that cleans the dorm rooms at the observatories?

There are professional norms here, but it’s surprisingly hard to articulate them. Note that I’m not defending those norms, just trying to figure out exactly what they are.

Going back to the currency analogy helps a bit here: in the norms of our profession, who needs and appreciates citations and co-authorship as professional currency that advances their careers? Not the cleaning and cooking staff at the dormitories. Many telescope operators do not, but many telescope staff astronomers do.  Many people who write data pipelines and archiving software do.  Certainly instrument designers and builders to, as do some members of the shops that construct the instruments. An imperfect shorthand for this might be “anyone eligible for membership in the AAS” (or their country’s equivalent).

Here I think there is an ethical obligation on observatories and science centers that produce data to offer guidance to users on how their staff that accrues and values citations to get them. This means that data pipelines and instruments need to have papers that can be cited, and staff astronomers that assist with observations in any way need a clear path to getting credit for the science they enable. These centers also need to communicate with their users about what these policies are and what appropriate citation and authorship practices for their employees entail.

OK, having laid the groundwork here, in Part III I’ll defend my proposal from Part I.

Who Should Be an Author on a Paper? I: AAS Ethics policy

I started a really long Twitter conversation by blurting out a radical-sounding assertion that I’ve been mulling over privately for a long time.  This series of posts is an attempt to justify my (apparently) rather unpopular position.

The AAS Ethics Policy States:

All persons who have made significant contributions to a work intended for publication should be offered the opportunity to be listed as authors. This includes all those who have contributed significantly to the inception, design, execution, or interpretation of the research to be reported.

Sounds reasonable! But—like a lot of ethical maxims—this apparently banal statement can be tricky to apply in practice. I actually like this rule a lot and think it should stand with only minor clarifications, but I assert that it is strongly inconsistent with the norms of our profession.  We could change the norms, or we could change the policy.  I think a compromise is in order.

Let’s look at a concrete example:

Consider a team of researchers that proposes for some Hubble Space Telescope time. After submitting the proposal but before analysis of the data begin, two of the co-I team members (let’s call them Amber and Brie) that worked hard on the proposal leave the group. Amber gets a job in industry, and Brie gets a faculty job elsewhere and has no time to work on the project any longer.

The PI (let’s call her Candice) and the rest of the team get the data and write a paper. Do they have an ethical obligation to include Amber and Brie on the paper? I think it’s clear that they do: they clearly “contributed significantly to the inception [and] design…of the research to be reported.”

OK, that’s an easy one. Now let’s make a minor tweak.  Let’s say this was a DDT proposal. That means that the data have no proprietary period, and go public as soon as they are ready. Simultaneous to the above events, another team (led by Joe) downloads the very interesting and useful data, analyzes it, and prepares their own paper.  Is Joe ethically obliged to offer Amber and Brie co-authorship on the paper?

Our professional norms say “no”: this is a different team using public data; why should Amber and Brie be involved?

But our professional society apparently says “yes”: by the book, this situation is no different than the first one.  Amber and Brie “contributed significantly to the inception [and] design…of the research to be reported.” Full stop. By this rule, the entire proposal team should be on Joe’s paper!

In fact, the AAS policy has things exactly backwards of our professional norms: many astronomers would, I think, consider Joe a bit of a jerk for scooping Candice. Even though he’s allowed by NASA to publish the data, there is a general etiquette that we don’t do that, or at least that we ask first, or at the very least an understanding that Candice is perfectly justified being upset about it. But there is also a broad consensus that Joe doesn’t owe Candice co-authorship.

So the AAS Policy is clearly out of step with our norms. Should we change the policy?

I actually think not. I agree that Joe’s act is poor form, but allowed; my (apparently radical) proposal is that Joe should seriously consider inviting Amber, Brie, Candice, and the entire proposing team to be co-authors on his team’s paper.

In Part II I’ll flesh this out.

The PITS

There is zero evidence for ancient aliens in the Solar System.

OK, now that that’s out of the way…

Sooooo, I wrote a paper and it’s been accepted to the International Journal of Astrobiology. Yay!  Astrobiology refused to have it refereed, claiming it was out of scope, which I admit made me grumpy:

But that’s fine; if they don’t want solar system artifact SETI in their journal, that’s their loss. Perhaps they’ll come around as Breakthrough Listen starts its survey of Solar System objects for radio emission. Anyway, that’s all water under the bridge now.

Normally I would have done a big roll out, a 10-part slow blog of the whole saga, and describe the paper in detail but…

  • I was traveling from California to the Astrobiology Science Conference near Phoenix when I learned it was accepted, so I didn’t have time to blog it.
  • I wanted to get the preprint out right away, during AbSciCon, since it’s my first astrobiology paper, and I thought having it hit the arXiv during the conference would make for good conversations. Also, Breakthrough Discuss had just finished, so SETI was also on people’s minds.
  • A major family emergency had just struck (everyone’s fine now), and I had no time to blog, or even do much of anything at AbSciCon (I have a long draft of a blog post almost ready to go that I haven’t had time to even look at in two weeks).
  • I think the paper is very short and readable—an easy register, not too much jargon—so if you’re interested in what’s in it I recommend you just read it.  My blog would just quote from it, for the most part, anyway.
  • I thought I’d do a slow-blog later—I wasn’t really expecting much in the way of press to scoop me; it’s kind of a fluffy paper (to use Steinn’s term for it)
  • That said, I had shown the paper to the great folks at the Atlantic science desk (Ross Andersen asked what I had tweeted about above) and so I knew it would be treated well if it got any press at all.

Well, it certainly got some press! Not #TabbysStar #AlienMegastructures levels of press, but enough that I have a very busy week!

The Atlantic article was nice, and if that had been the main source of news stories, I think it allwould have gone much better.  But somehow, the yellow press found the paper on their own on the arXiv (do they read astro-ph daily?!) and ran away with it without asking me what it was about. The Daily Mail, that British rag of a tabloid, claimed that I “believe[] the aliens either lived on Earth, Venus or Mars billions of years ago.”

Wow. Things went downhill from there as the NY Post, repeated the article, and USA Today posted a video that was even worse. The only saving grace is that according to the worst of the articles, the irresponsible astronomer posting Ancient Aliens papers on the arXiv wasn’t me:

Gizmodo got to talk to me after the craziness began, and they were great and helping me to reframe things more appropriately.  Universe Today was really careful to get things right, too, as was NBC Mach.

For the record, the premise of my paper is the fact that we have no evidence for any prior technological species in the Solar System. My paper asks, is this a dispositive null result? That is, has our paleontology on Earth and mapping of the larger Solar System bodies basically proven that we are the first such species around?  After all, the idea that we are not is very old (read the paper—the earliest citation I got from folks contributing to my Twitter research was 1900 years ago!).  This was actually an area of active discussion in astronomy until the advent of robotic exploration showed no canals on Mars, no ruins of cities on Venus.

But is it too soon to rule out the possibility entirely? I thought the idea needed to be formalized, to have a name, because it seemed to me the literature had forgotten about it prematurely. Papers on searches for alien artifacts in the Solar System always seem to implicitly assume such artifacts would have come from an interstellar species—but if Venus was ever inhabited, couldn’t its inhabitants have something to find?

So, I ask, what’s left?  Ancient things are hard to find, because planetary surfaces erode and subduct things away. We have a pretty good understanding of life on Earth, and the window between “so old we wouldn’t know about it” and “so recent we couldn’t have missed it” might be very narrow. But is it really closed?

I don’t know, but it seems like the kind of question we have the ability to answer today. Someone should answer it! How long would free-floating artifacts in the Solar System last? How far beneath the surface of Mars would technology have to be to survive billions of years? And how deep can we probe with radar? How long ago could Mars have been inhabited?  Venus How wide is the window between technology we could never discover because it has been too long, and technology we know isn’t there because we’ve checked?

That’s the conversation I wanted to have.  That’s why I wrote a paper on Prior Indigenous Technological Species: not because I think they exist, but because we’re at the point where it should be possible to say for sure that certain types of them didn’t. The end of the paper is all about the things we can do to start drawing some conclusions.

And that’s a neat SETI (SPITS?) project someone should undertake.

At least I think it’s neat.  Your mileage may vary. In that vein, let me use this as an opportunity to address a weird misconception that the SETI grumps in astronomy have. Apparently, the only reason to do artifact SETI (or even mention it in a paper on another topic) is to get attention. Seriously, I’ve had good astronomers I respect make this claim and defend it when challenged. It’s a real attitude out there.

Well, the truth is exactly the opposite. When trying to do artifact SETI, I have inevitably caught all the wrong kind of attention from the yellow press and the ufologists.

And it is mortifying.

So why do I carry on? Certainly not for the attention. I carry on because it’s interesting, and because lots of other colleagues I respect tell me they find it fascinating and worth working on.

Now, I’m not claiming to be some sort of martyr for the cause, here. My point is that it’s a problem worth working on despite the attention, not because of it, and so the SETI grumps that think otherwise should seriously reconsider their assessment of the motives of SETI researchers.

Now excuse me while I answer all these emails from Coast to Coast and ufologists sending me pictures of clouds.

 

On Outré Ideas

David Stevenson has a nice Commentary in Physics Today:
http://physicstoday.scitation.org/doi/full/10.1063/PT.3.3507

He argues in defense of “crazy” ideas in science. He categorized three kind of “crazy”:

The First Kind is simple crackpottery: people who don’t know enough science to articulate a real scientific idea, and do not understand its interconnectedness well enough to distinguish outré ideas from nonsense ones. He says this is the most common and least interesting (and he’s right, except as a study in sociology)

The Second Kind is when good scientists take a fresh, naïve look at a new field. He writes:

Inevitably, such excursions can look like the actions of a dilettante…One is then accused of speculation. I occasionally sense from colleagues some disdain for scientific speculation, perhaps because it is cheap: It seems to require relatively little effort and commitment.

He argues that hard, serious speculation is rare and important. This is certainly something I’ve tried to engage in. My excursions into lunar geology theory, the Faint Young Sun problem, and even SETI (at first) were certainly in this category. Indeed, the reactions I got to our lunar highlands work from the lunar science community ranged from the pleasant to the snide (Dave himself was polite, but dismissive—though, after reading this I wonder if I misread him.  Caltech GPS was certainly the most receptive audience I found.).

Physicists are prone to this sort of work (consider Richard Muller’s forays into climate science (and borderline denialism)) to the point of cliché (one of my favorite SMBC comics), and SETI seems to be a favorite destination for dilettantes from all fields.

The Third Kind are when established leaders in their fields upset the table with entirely new perspectives.  One occasionally sees cals for such ideas: Lindy Elkins-Tanton acknowledged the need for new ideas in lunar formation theory in Nature, and Michael Inzlicht in psychology has done serious soul searching, wondering if his career, indeed much of his field, is based on bad statistics. But these ideas are not always invited or even welcome; Stevenson’s examples are Hoyle’s Black Cloud and steady-state cosmology, and the idea of emergent gravity.  He finishes with a quote from Neils Bohr to Wolfgang Pauli: “We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question which divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct.”

Stevenson briefly mentions a “portfolio” of ideas, and this brings me to one of my favorite papers, Avi Loeb’s banquet lecture (here at Penn State!) about how young scientists should divide their research time. He argues for some fraction of time to be spent on “venture capital”, analogous to spending some of your financial portfolio on high-risk, high-reward investments. (Avi may have been inspired by Eric Weinstein’s lecture on the topic, h/t Michael Neilson for pointing me to it) Avi acknowledges that there is actually a lot of acceptance for work on outré topics, but argues that the natural conservatism of the Academy and science tends to favor no more than 5% of one’s efforts there.  He argues it should be more like 20%.

I think between 5-20% is right, in an average sense. So some scientists should spend 100% of their effort on safe “bonds”, others a lot more on venture capital (my last few years have involved much more SETI than I had planned for), but if as a whole we’re working between 5-20% of the time on Second and Third Kind speculation, I think we’ll do well.

I use “outré” above instead of “crazy” (and I put the latter in scare quotes) because the latter is a slur for people with mental health issues. I appreciate it’s often not meant that way, but I think society is slowly realizing how common mental illness is, how badly and unjustly it is stigmatized, and how casual uses of terms like “crazy” to mean “unexpected” or “weirdly different” reinforce that stigma.  Also, “crazy” isn’t even the right word here—by using it, Dave is facetiously implying that one would have to be mentally ill to have come up with the idea, but all he needs to make his point is to say that it’s nonobvious, very clever, and outside the normal thought process—outré.