This I Believe Draft

*Preface: My father is not an alcoholic, let me know if it comes off as such.  The mention of alcohol is meant to emphasize the magnitude of the stress.

My father walks through the front door, shoulders hunched as he trudges into the house. The clock strikes eight, the last rays of sun long since departed. Ice clinks into a glass as he pours the final drops of bourbon out of a bottle. He slouches onto the couch and for what seems like an eternity does not speak. As the glass empties, over time the dejected demeanor he possesses evolves into that of relaxation as the suffocating stress of his job is removed by the liquid.

Suddenly, he picks himself up from the couch and moves towards the kitchen. The hopelessness in his eyes replaced by a passion rarely seen. The stove is flicked on and water bubbles begin to form as it reaches a boil.   The smell of spices inundate the kitchen as my father swiftly moves around the kitchen; an artist practicing his craft. For a while a look of satisfaction and happiness touches the normally desolate features of his face. ­­

Finally, he calls my mother and myself into the kitchen to enjoy the masterpiece that he prepared. The food is the quality one would see out of a five-star restaurant. Elegantly prepared and aesthetically pleasing on the plate. Nothing is overcooked, and the contrasting flavors meld into one that is exponentially higher than the sum of their parts. This is my father’s passion.

Yet…He continues the drudgery that is his job. His pay is excellent and he has a prestigious position within the company…He despises it… He always says how he’s going to start a restaurant and be a head chef, yet he makes excuses because the pay of his current job is so great. He kills himself doing something he hates.

Yet, he is not an outlier in a world of those who follow their passion. His situation is the norm across the world, as people do jobs they despise simply for the sake of money. My realization of this fact came when I read a quote on some random internet forum. It was a reference meant to be comedic. Yet this quote made me rethink much of my outlook on life…”Die doing what you love”…In this, I believe.

Passion and Civic Blog Topics

So after much debate, I have decided to do my passion blog about a financial security that I feel is a good buy for the week, and for my civic issues blog I will review the financial practicality of incorporating various progressive energy sources into everyday life along with how long I expect until they become commonplace (Because they will eventually become the norm).  These were really the blogs I planned to invest in from the start.  Anyway, I hope you guys enjoy reading my topics in the future, and hopefully I can provide an interesting read for all of you!

RCL 1/15

PASSION

The first idea that I have for my passion blog is to give a commentary on current events and how they’re affecting the world at large.  I would discuss issues and their effect on the reset of the world, even countries that are not in direct connection with the event in general.  For example, recently I would discuss how the recent Charlie Hebdo affected the United States and similar countries like China and also discuss how the United States not sending either Biden or Obama to the Paris anti-terrorism march was a poor choice and discuss how it could lead to future tensions with the countries that did attend.

On the other end of the spectrum, being interested in financial securities, I could pick a different security every week that I feel will go up or down significantly during the following week and also give a justification on why I think that it will happen. This could range from a specific stock that I feel is performing well to even an individual currency or commodity.

CIVIC ISSUES

One idea for my civic issues blog is to discuss foreign relations within the United States.  This could range from commenting on developments as new potential candidates emerge for the upcoming presidential election and how each will be viewed internationally to discussing how decisions made by Obama or other high ranking government official will affect the view of the US in other nations.  I would most likely not do this blog however if I utilized the current event commentary discussed in my passion blog ideas.

On the opposite end of the spectrum I also would enjoy discussing different alternative energy sources being discussed today and speak on how practical it would be to implement them.  For example, I could discuss how electricity replacing oil is a viable alternative due to the relatively ample access and safety in one post, while in another discuss how while nuclear is a good idea in essence it possesses so many potential risks for destroying the environment that it wouldn’t be worth the benefits.

THIS I BELIEVE PODCAST

The first belief that I could use for my podcast is my belief that every one should get an equal chance in life, and how it carries over to how I treat everyone.  In my ideal world, everyone would be on equal footing from the start of their lives and have access to the same opportunites and their only limiting factor should be their drive to succeed.  I hate seeing seemingly intelligent people born into poverty or similar conditions and never be able to escape because of their situations.  That being said I try to utilize this in my day to day approach when I meet new people.  No matter what has been said about the person, I try to give them every chance possible to be friends with me while also trying to be there if they genuinely need help and assistance.

The second idea I could possibly utilize for my project is my belief that everyone should follow their passion.  This stems from constantly seeing my father slave day to day at a job that he hates.  Constantly being stressed from work causing him to develop into a borderline functioning alcoholic has always been something I wish I could change somehow.  His real passion lies in cooking and preparing food in an almost artistic way, like a top chef on TV.  He should have left and done this instead of taking the stressful job that he hates for the money.

 

RCL 12/4

Overall, I felt I had a positive first semester in college. I met new people, joined new activities, and I feel that I really developed as a person.  Furthermore, I feel that I learned a lot about myself along with what I want to do with my life.

In our class, I feel that I have learned a lot about how changes in society occur, and the rhetoric utilized to foster these changes.  The paradigm shift papers and ted talks really gave me a perspective of change and civil life in society.  However, I still feel that I have yet to learn about the past in the public controversy project, so I am very excited for that in the future.

In terms of what I have struggled with, I feel that I have been simply decent at public speaking.  This is a skill that I need to work on in the future, as I feel that I need to become more articulate and be able to make my thoughts and ideas very concise when spoken.  However, I do feel that I excel at writing, and am able to successfully convey my thoughts to the reader in an effective manner.  I feel however that my writing is too “fluffy” in a sense, and that is one of the major reasons I struggle at public speaking, as I add in too much fluff when I should just get right to the point.

My best work in general has been fostered by drafting then redrafting, or simply knowing my topic well.  I know for the Ted talk I went in knowing my topic with little utilization of note cards and other props, and as a result I think that I gave a very effective speech.  However, on the first speech we did in class, I decided to outline my speech on notecards and utilize these instead of knowing my topic down pat.  This definitely had a negative effect on my performance, and I feel that in the future I will simply know the topic instead of “memorizing” a speech.

Oil

As most of you have probably noticed, oil at the pumps has been quite cheap lately.  Like, sub-2000’s cheap.  In this blog post I’m going to discuss how this massive change occurred, and also how it’s going to affect the United States economy.

First up, the reason that this change occurred is due to a massive increase in production that has dwarfed the increase in oil demand across the globe.  This change was for the most part facilitated by the expansion of the United States oil drilling, particularly shale in the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Permian Basin.  You all have most likely heard of the Keystone Pipeline.  This pipeline is the main source of transporting the oil out of these regions.

Now, prior to this massive shale boom in the United States, oil prices were basically controlled by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).  This organization of countries (mostly middle-eastern) had a vice grip on oil for years.  They were the major cause of the Energy Crisis in the United States in the late 20th century, and basically have acted as an Oil cartel for decades.  The countries if threatened in the past could set up oil embargos, or decrease/increase production to meet demand.  However, in the past year the US production has reached a critical point where it can challenge OPEC’s production.

To put in perspective the massive effect that the US production has had on oil prices over the past year, one needs only look at the price per barrel of oil.  It peaked at 118 in Q2, and now heading into the end of Q4 (The period where oil demand normally INCREASES), oil is set at 67 and expected to stabilize at about 60.  Normally at this price, OPEC would cut production in order to skyrocket the price back to profitable levels, but the problem is the US production would not slow down in comparison, and therefore OPEC would simply be helping the competition and losing market share if they cut their own production.

Therefore, and perfect for the consumer, OPEC has decided to maintain levels in order to attempt to dissuade US production and put pressure one the production firms in the US.  However, technology has reached a point where even US shale oil is profitable at the current abysmal oil prices.  In my opinion, this “price war” as I deem it will ultimately result in a continuous decrease in prices unless China increases their industrial use of oil significantly (unlikely) or Europe/Japan recover dramatically in the next year (Probably not).  Therefore, I am at this point very bearish on oil, and I expect it t ocontinue to drop.

In terms of how this decrease in prices is going to affect the US economy, it comes down to the US increasing real disposable income of the consumer.  This is a radically significant gain for the country.  we are going to see major growth in Q1 and Q2 2015 in terms of GDP, Inflation, and other economic indicators.  The amount of disposable income spent on goods will increase exhorbitantly, and as such expect any consumer discretionary stocks to skyrocket in response to the increased spending.  Oil exploration and production companies will definitely damper the growth a little, seeing as this is basically their version of the apocalypse, but as a consumer and country, great things are on the horizon for us.

RCL Blog 11/20

Overall, I felt that my ted talk went quite well.  I managed to get the information across while simultaneously not confusing anyone (pretty sure).  I tried to make my talk very chronological and basic so that it was very easy to follow with little sidetracking from the main topic.  I also feel that I did a fantastic job keeping it short and to the point, as my speech was only 5 minutes long.

However, as always I do feel like my overall delivery could have been better.  I scanned the room and kept eye contact, but it was very uneasy and I noticed in my video I would linger on certain sports for too long.  Furthermore, there were times during my speech where I would repeat words and it made the section of my speech seem much less refined.  If I was to go back and change it, I probably would have practiced a few more times prior to giving the speech.  While I did know my content extremely well, my ability to articulate it in a more concise manner could have been improved upon.  I’m not saying I did awful, but the room is definitely there for improvement.

What surprised me most about my video however was the amount that I utilized my hands throughout the presentation.  I feel that it wasn’t enough to be distracting, but I never realized that I moved that much while I spoke publicly.  Building upon this, my intonation was surprising, and I believe that it was well done but there were points where I would use a certain tone that didn’t fit the point or idea that I was trying to present.  In the future, this will be something that I explicitly work on.

Moving forward, I feel that this project in general improved my public speaking.  It forced me to sit down and look at myself from an observers perspective, while simultaneously forcing me to cut an 8 page speech down to 5ish minutes of content, which in and of itself is difficult.  Overall however, I enjoyed this project along with the paradigm shift in general, and I hope that we do more projects like this in the Spring.

Lets Talk About Ford

Over the past few weeks due to it being the case study for interviews, I have begun to take an interest in Ford (NYSE: F) due to a variety of different reasons.  In this blog post I am going to explain why I feel that ford, as of now, is a good long term investment and where I expect it to be at the end of 2015.

ALUMINUM F150

Ford in 2014 had decided to revamp its classic F150 and other F-series trucks from steel to aluminum shells (Frame remains steel).  While at first one would expect steel to be stronger, the lightness of aluminum actually makes it possible for thicker, stronger shells.  As a result of this, the aluminum cars will have increased resistance to dents and other abrasions.  Furthermore, by switching to aluminum, the car will be 20% more fuel efficient (pushing 30 MPG…Yes this is a truck) and will put the trucks vastly ahead of their competition in terms of efficiency.  However, in order to begin production of these cars the company had to shut down current production facilities and revamp them to account for the change in metal.  In 2014 this basically caused a 20% decrease in Ford’s overall profit, sending their stock price to 80% of the 52 week high.  While many view this as a negative, to me this signals that it is prime for a major investment.  The decrease in stock price was due to the drop in revenue, but this revenue will most likely come back in 2015 as production resumes.  Furthermore, after extensive testing the aluminum truck is much more efficient and resistant than its steel counterparts.  I project revenues to even reach record highs in 2015.

However, investing in this company does include a few risks.  As this will be the first major expansion into aluminum cars, it will be scrutinized at every level.  If their is any major fiasco related to call backs or problems with the truck, it will basically destroy the opinion of the consumer on aluminum cars.  This will be a problem, as Ford has crafted the idea of aluminum vehicles into their brand over the prior months.  Furthermore, with oil prices so low due to the massive oversupply, people may not be as inclined to purchase the new, more expensive fuel-efficient incarnation of the class F150.  If this results, it will cause major losses and disappointment for ford.

That being said however, I do still feel that Ford is a good investment.  Basically for the stock not to shoot back up, they have to really mess up the release of the new truck in 2015.  In addition to this, the company is also gaining momentum in both stable markets like Europe and China, and emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific.  I foresee major growth and expansion over the coming years, and in addition I see 2015 being a stellar year for them as consumers possess so much disposable income currently.

Predicted Intrinsic Value of Ford (Bull Case): $24.83

Predicted Intrinsic Value of Ford (Bear Case): $9.50

Predicted Intrinsic Value of Ford (My Case): $20.50

Current Value of Ford: $15.50

RCL 11/6

In order to make my TED talk more interesting, I will first off be utilizing more visuals to illustrate my point.  As my project is over a two year span and has significant graph trends including unemployment rate, college attendance, and technical positions available in the job market.  Furthermore, this will really assist me in the explanation behind what exactly the paradigm shift was caused by.  In my paper, I say about how the market for labor became over saturated during the Great Depression and highlight it peaking at 23.8%, but to see a graph with a massive spike will leave a much better overall effect on the viewer.  Furthermore, it will allow me to add further structure to my presentation, as I can talk about the “Before, during, after” time frame with relation to the paradigm shift of college becoming mandatory in addition to also employing unemployment rate, college attendance, and skilled jobs graphs.

One major thing that I am going to take out however is my initial description of colleges original role, and begin instead with the idea that college was not a necessary factor to achieve a job.  In my paper, this topic adds a further layer in allowing the viewer to compare colleges role then versus now.  However in a presentation like a Ted talk, adding an extra layer to be analyzed will only confuse and distract the audience.  People will not focus as much on my main point of “people had to go to college to get jobs”, and instead some will be thinking of how college changed while others are seeing the presentation as it should be.  I want to avoid this split audience at all costs.

Finally, to conclude my paper I am going to play down the bold predictions I made at the end.  In my actual paper, I discussed how now that EVERYONE has a college degree, the work force has become saturated yet again, and people will begin going on to even higher levels of education in order to achieve a job.  While in a paper this is, in my opinion, a fantastic way to end it, in a presentation leaving the audience on that not will detract them from the meat of my presentation, the prior paradigm shift.  In my opinion, presentations like this must be VERY precise and focused in order to effectively convey a point.  Any straying from the thesis and its support having a negative effect on the speech’s overall impact on the audience.

 

The Superpowers’ Economic Outlooks

In this weeks blog, I decided to take a look at the major economies of the world currently, and what I project their outlook to me.  I have been particularly attentive to this kind of news lately, because as I am preparing for interviews it is necessary for me to compile a market outlook for basically every security in general across the major nations of the world.  As such, this post will help me compile these thoughts into a concise manner

 

European Union

As a substitute for Europe I will pay attention to the European Union because their currency is a major player within the market.  Current, the Euro is in a state of struggle.  While it is appreciating, this is due to the fact that their inflation rate is basically nonexistant.  They have put up near 0 inflation over that past few periods.  This seems positive, but it is a dire warning.  analysts project that over the following year or so the euro will fall into a state of deflation, and no one is acting at this point to try to stop it.  With the massively declining prices of oil in general, the economy is in quite bad shape.  Furthermore, the European Central Bank (ECB) is unable to elicit any help, as the interest rate is already low so open market operations would be ineffective.  They are currently in the process of attempting a quantitative easing much like the US, but are unable to do so due to rules of how they can manipulate currency.  Overall, I feel that Europe is on the brink of recession, and as such exporters to Europe will also fall.

China

Moving on to China, the outlook for China looks positive ASSUMING they can control their interest rates.  The people’s bank of china is currently engaging in policy that will attempt to slow down the growth rate of the country so as to be able to let inflation occur at a natural rate after having controlled the currency for so long.  The way I currently view China can basically be compiled through the following metaphor.  Imagine a man with a steam pot holding the lid down.  The stove is on max, and the intensity of the hear represents China’s GDP growth.  The man turns down the stove, but the water inside remains incredibly pressured and hot, and as such the man continues to hold it down.  In order to expedite the process, the man opens the lid ever so slightly, the steam escaping being inflation.  However, if the man opens the lid too much, the pressure will escape all at once; basically hyper-inflation.  This basically summarizes the predicament China is currently in from an outside in perspective, but the country in general has been very solid with a few questionable worries internally.  Their electricity usage has been going down and stagnating, when it going up is a sign of growth, however China argues that this is simply due to the country transferring more resources to the service industry rather than manufacturing (which uses the most energy).  If this statement is true, the country is fine internally, but if electricity usage is stagnating for no reason than production has decreased due to overstock, its a warning that the country may be overproducing.  Overall, I view China as being at a crossroads, where the country can either fall very fast, or stabilize at a slower growth rate and be a healthy economy without their governments massive intervention.

USA

My view on the United States at this time is very hazy, and I honestly struggle to predict where the US is going on its own.  If China or the EU suffers a recession, yes we will be hurt as will everyone else, but besides that I’m befuddled.  If i had to choose an outlook I would say the US is headed towards a period of stagnation marked by rapid spikes both up and down.  Energy prices are a major factor in this, as oil is a huge industry within the US and utilized by everyone.  Furthermore, the stock market and really the USD in general hasn’t really falled significantly over the past few periods.  This leads me to believe their needs to be a slight market correction and that everything is over-valued currently, but not to the point where a market reversal would occur.  China and EU would then amplify the level of correction based on their outlooks.

 

Hopefully that made sense to everyone; that’s just a brief glimpse into the world’s three biggest economies from my point of view.  If anyone disagrees or has another train of thought, please comment because I would love to hear your thoughts.

RCL 10/30

Here is the excerpt from my essay that I’m currently working on.  It’s the intro and as such it is one of the parts that I feel is the most important to my essay, and therefore the last part that I construct.  Please critique the thesis especially:

 

“So where did you go to school?”  This is a phrase that everyone asks in today’s world, be it an acquaintance trying to make small talk or an interviewer seeing where you received your degree in your field of specialty.  In today’s world, it is almost a requirement to have a degree from some type of college.  It is almost a social proof that one must have in order to prove their worth almost.  Yet, this is a new trend that has occurred over the past decade.  Prior, people did not attend college in order to get a job; there was a vast amount in abundance in factories and skilled labor was reserved for extremely technical professions.  But at some point over the past hundred years, a major shift occurred after which college became a necessity.  Through the massive increase in overall population fostered through the industrial revolution encouraging urbanization, ultimately resulting in increased life expectancy due to increased access to medicine and higher standards of living due to the wage system, a critical point was reached in the mid 20th century at which the quantity demanded of jobs by the population exceeded the quantity of jobs available, culminating in workers pursuit of a college degree in order to create a competitive advantage over the rest of the work force.

 

The main problem with this intro I feel is first that I start with a quote; this is something I normally frown upon.  However, I really cannot think of any other way to start the introduction, and as such any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.  Furthermore, I’m having trouble fitting everything into my thesis.  The one I currently have manages to get every point that I make within my paper in, but simultaneously I feel that, while grammatically correct, the thesis leads to confusion and lack of clarity.  Thoughts?

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