A book by Greg Costikyan.
Costikyan, G. (2013). Uncertainty in games. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.
I’ve always been interested in why games are motivating. After all, if you can find a way to motivate someone, they will learn despite any obstacles. One of the aspects of games I personally find motivating is uncertainty. It’s like driving down a road. Do you want a flat, straight road with no surprises, or one with some twists and turns? As Tom Chatfield says, “When we can’t quite predict something, we get really excited about it.”
When I came across Greg Costikyan’s book, I was motivated to read it (in no uncertain terms!). Here’s my synopsis of his great insights:
The world is uncertain. If you look at a game as a subset of the real world, grappling with uncertainty within that game is a coping and learning mechanism that exists in a nonthreatening environment.
Types of Uncertainty
Performance Uncertainty
This is restricted to physical performance – reaction times, shooting things, etc. You have to be careful to not overwhelm the player by requiring too much performance skill. Make it challenging, but not impossible.
Solver’s Uncertainty
There are non-overt problems built into many games that the player must solve in order to proceed. For example, if you are playing a military strategy game, you will often experience unique settings where you need to deploy troops and supplies to meet the demands of the situation.
Player Unpredictability
What will the player do to change what was thought to be defined outcomes? For multi-player games, this is easy to understand. Will your beserker teammate turn on you? Will a thief steal from you? What will you do to avoid and contain such actions?
For solo games, the game designers may have included some AI components that adjust to a player’s style and actions. This can force the player to try unpredictable actions in an effort to “fool” the AI.
Randomness
This is perhaps the easiest element of uncertainty to understand, and it may be the easiest to build into games. Will there be one, two, or three Orcs around that next corner? If there is only one, can you avoid it? If there are three, will you need to use a stronger offensive? Will it rain today? If it does, how must I adjust troop movements to reach my target on time?
Analytic Complexity
This happens when you offer a player only a small number of choices, but all choices are difficult to choose based on available data. Each choice will force some tradeoffs. For example, if you choose to make an alliance with the Beggar King, you may not gain much gold, but you will have access to his network of spies. On the other hand, the Upstart King has plenty of gold, but not much else. Which one should you choose? Maybe you can use the gold from the Upstart King to purchase spies; maybe not.
Hidden Information
This can be objects you can’t easily find/see, and also areas you cannot yet see. It can also be information you don’t have yet know it exists, such as a combination to a lock or a character’s backstory.
Narrative Anticipation
Keeping the player uncertain how the game story will evolve. What will the next cut scene reveal? What actions can I take to make that character talk to me and reveal his secrets?
Development Anticipation
I’m not sure this is applicable for teaching and learning. This is the hype that precedes the release of a game, an update to a game, a new addition to a game, etc.
Schedule Uncertainty
Some online games limit the amount of time or turns a player can spend in the game per day. As there is almost always more that a player wished to accomplish when time/turns run out, this can be seen as an uncertainty mechanism if the player is trying to incorporate strategies that maximize efficiency, thus reducing time/turn counts.
Perception Uncertainty
This happens when the player does not see what is there, as in hidden object games. It also occurs when the player must rely on perception to make decisions and trigger actions. For example, in Guitar Hero, the player must perceive musical rhythms via a flowing line of symbols and trigger the correct response at the correct time based on accurate perception of the flowing symbol line.
Malaby’s Semiotic Contingency
In addition to sounding like a fantastic D&D spell, this is when games contain probable or accepted cultural meaning. For example, some games for change will place you in the position of a person representing an oppressed or disadvantaged culture. The uncertainty comes from questioning the consequences of your actions in relation to that culture as the game unfolds.
Conclusion
Greg presents a great breakdown of the generic concept of uncertainty on games, and quantifies what designers might think about in this area. Do read the book; it contains some great analyses of several popular games and concludes with game design considerations.
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