For my final passion blog of the semester, I will be talking about the current state of the spread of the coronavirus and possible outlooks for the future. Globally, there have now been over one and a half million cases recorded. This is followed by about eighty eight thousand deaths worldwide. Currently, the United States has by far the most cases out of any country on the planet, nearly tripling the number of the next highest country, Spain. After Spain is Italy, France, Germany, and China. However, the United States is only third on the list of deaths, preceded by Italy and Spain.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2F2020%2F04%2F02%2Fcoronavirus-live-updates.html&psig=AOvVaw1zwAukYo-XGHFQMDs3AF3P&ust=1586471029982000&source=images&cd=vfe&ved=0CAQQjB1qFwoTCICWoqPv2egCFQAAAAAdAAAAABAD
In the US, the hardest hit state by far has been New York. On Monday, New York state set a one-day record of 731 deaths from COVID-19. However, at the same time, New York’s overwhelmed hospital emergency rooms have started to see a drop in new coronavirus patients, with the three-day average falling from a peak of 1,294 late last week to 529. Admissions to intensive care units decreased more dramatically, from a three-day average of 395 last week to 89 on Monday.
Some experts believe that this statistic shows that the efforts that are being made to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus are working. Social distancing and staying at home likely played a major part in this decrease in New York COVID-19 cases.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.usnews.com%2Fnews%2Ftop-news%2Farticles%2F2020-04-07%2Fnew-york-state-overtakes-italy-has-coronavirus-cases-second-only-to-spain-reuters-tally&psig=AOvVaw2o-42HFLDsTR5yAaacjnaL&ust=1586471072987000&source=images&cd=vfe&ved=0CAQQjB1qFwoTCOjylLrv2egCFQAAAAAdAAAAABAD
One important concept this brings up is that of a peak. The peak of coronavirus in any area, whether a city, state, or country, signifies when the spread of the virus is at its worst. Many people search for this in order to know when the current situation will begin to get better, and things will be able to start slowly going back to the way they were. So far, for most locations across the globe, the situation has only been getting worse and worse. Yet, this possibility of a peak in New York in the near future provides a ray of hope. This is now encouraging many other states to look ahead and try to determine when their “peak” will be.
Peaks for the different states depend on several factors, including population, population density, social distancing restrictions, and many others. Data from npr.org estimates the date of this peak for each of the fifty states. These dates range from March 31st to April 30th. The locations that have already peaked are Delaware, D.C., Vermont, Washington, Colorado, and Louisiana. New York is estimated to peak tomorrow, April 9th. Some of the last states to peak will be South Dakota, Rhode Island, and Wyoming.
Personally, all of these dates surprised me, as it seemed like there was no end in sight to this pandemic. If I would have guessed before doing research, I would have estimated these peaks to be occurring in May at the absolute earliest, with some possibly going into the summer. While this data is promising, it is certainly no reason to take any fewer precautions. More than ever, it is very highly recommended to avoid any social situations and to follow all government provided recommendations in order to get rid of this virus even sooner. These upcoming peaks show the progress we have made by working as one. Every person can do their part to help minimize the damage of this natural disaster.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.usatoday.com%2Fstory%2Fnews%2Fnation%2F2020%2F03%2F31%2Fus-coronavirus-deaths-could-peak-mid-april-restrictions-states%2F5100513002%2F&psig=AOvVaw0_H3AHG4a5NcaqEIaYd75E&ust=1586471120867000&source=images&cd=vfe&ved=0CAMQjB1qFwoTCLCpvM7v2egCFQAAAAAdAAAAABAi
With social distancing efforts being implemented nearly nationwide about two weeks, these measures should be having an effect around now since the incubation period for the virus is two weeks. Hopefully, these practices will continue to flatten and eventually decrease the curve. I’m keeping my fingers crossed that the curve doesn’t spike again when social distancing regulations are relaxed.
I found your passion blog to be very informative. It shows just how bad it is in Italy and Spain. We have more cases than them but they still outnumber us in deaths. I think this shows just how great our medical system is in this country.
New York is insane, which I haven’t witnessed firsthand living out in the PA coutnyside. However, my friends in NYC have explained to me how they can’t even go outside their houses for the past 2 months. I also hope to see an end to this soon, but you’re right in saying the only way is through social distancing.