March 29

How Right is the QB Hype: Matt Ryan

The Atlanta Falcons always has been a team known for having its highs and lows. However, from the past eleven seasons (2008-2018), they have been in the playoffs seven times. One key piece of information to also know is that quarterback Matt Ryan started his NFL career in 2008, with the Atlanta Falcons, the team in which he is still a part of to this day.

Atlanta Falcons’ Matt Ryan celebrates after the NFL football NFC championship game against the Green Bay Packers Sunday, Jan. 22, 2017, in Atlanta. The Falcons won 44-21 to advance to Super Bowl LI.

With Matt Ryan being able to help the Flacon’s get into the playoffs for about 63% of his eleven-year NFL career, we have to analyze his stats and characteristics to see if he can be right for the QB hype. Let’s take a look!

1. Matt Ryan has a very inconsistent RAT and QBR.

As discussed in previous blog posts, RAT is a quarterback’s passer rating, while QBR is a quarterback’s overall rating. Sadly for Matt Ryan, he is very inconsistent on both. He has come from having seasons like his 117.1 RAT in 2016, just to fall down to a 91.4 the very next season. His QBR has not changed as rapidly, but has increased and decreased inconsistently throughout his entire NFL career. You can see how his QBR matches up to other quarterbacks here. In conclusion, he needed to show more consistent growth in these numbers over his career, not just have to rely on a “lucky season,” or the other players he has on the team to cover him, and to throw to.

2. His TD/Interception ratio is above average.

Matt Ryan is shown helping to lead his team to the NFC championship game, producing a win against the Seattle Seahawks 36-20.

Matt Ryan has had a career 295 passing touchdowns, while throwing for only 133 career interceptions. That means for about every nine touchdown passes Ryan has thrown, he will likely have thrown four interceptions. This is a very good ration, and puts him in the top five NFL quarterbacks in that category for all quarterbacks who currently hold starting positions in the NFL. This also can be supported by the fact that Matt Ryan usually plays in high-scoring games, which is a credit to his ability to create offensive production.

3. Matt Ryan knows how to throw for a lot of passing yards.

Matt Ryan currently has the third highest number for passing yards in the NFL. For his total career, he averages about 7.5 yards gained per pass, nearly a the top all current NFL starting quarterbacks.

As you can see from the video above, one of the key reasons to his success in this statistic is his awareness of the field, and how well he can make passes in stride.

Despite the Falcons fairly rich playoff history, they are still missing one key accomplishment…a super bowl. The Falcons have never won a super bowl, and yet have only appeared in two of them to begin with. However, I think Matt Ryan will be the quarterback that helps them to win their first one, prior to his retirement. I do think Matt Ryan is right for the QB hype.

 

 

March 15

How Right is the QB Hype: Drew Brees

As this blog segment continues on, I feel it is appropriate to conclude it with a special segment. I initially did not feel I would be covering any highly seasoned NFL quarterbacks, and even mentioned that in one of my own blog posts from months ago. However, I feel it is important to cover the aspects of all types of quarterbacks in the league. Just because a quarterback has been in the league longer does not necessarily mean they are the better quarterback. So, for a few posts, let’s get into some longtime NFL starting quarterbacks. Drew Brees has been part of the New Orleans Saints for his entire career, which has spanned since the 2001 season.

A picture, captured by Sports Illustrated, showing Drew Brees with a concentrated gaze as he is surrounded by the colors of the New Orleans Saints football team.

So, with all this time in the league, how has his career really turned out? Let’s take a look at his stats and characteristics.

 

1. He has had an above average ratio of touchdowns to interceptions thrown, and has a nearly record high for the amount of touchdowns thrown.

For every nine touchdowns thrown, on average, Drew Brees will throw four interceptions. Even though above average does not necessarily mean elite status, the amount of touchdowns he has thrown holds the current record for second place (circa 2018), with his total of 520 touchdowns thrown. That is the best of the best, and it really is tough to get better than that.

2. He has an aggressive offense

This is a good thing, if the offense of producing yards and scoring plays. While Drew Brees currently holds the most passing yards in NFL history, which is already good, the New Orleans Saints have one of the best track records for total offensive production overall. With Brees also having a pass completion percentage of 67.3%, is truly doing quite well for how many years he has been playing in the league.

3. He has a weak view in the pocket, but an intelligent vision for his passes.

Drew Brees has a very predictable strengths in his vision on the field. He has been known to be easy to tackle in the pocket, and yet has been known to consistently find the open wide receiver when throwing a pass. However this is still more of a problem because those accurate pass looks do not do much help when you are getting sacked over and over before you can even get off the pass. If Drew Brees learns to divide his vision between the pocket and the outfield, then he may have a more appropriate balance to make more positive offensive plays.

Overall, I think Drew Brees is a very polished quarterback, and a quarterback that has not wasted anytime to show how he can improve too. One example of that alone is his QBR, shown on this chart that gives his entire career stats. Basically, he never hit his peak too early unlike many other NFL quarterbacks that bust early in their careers. With his records and electric offense also in mind, I truly think Drew Brees has demonstrated he is right for the QB hype.

February 16

How Right is the QB Hype: Andrew Luck

Peyton Manning had Colts fans on their feet for years. Playing quarterback for the team from his rookie year in 1998, until injury that led to his eventual release from the team after his last season with them in 2010. Yet it took only until 2012 for the Colts to find yet another quarterback that would later become a “franchise player.” Andrew Luck was drafted by the Indianapolis Colts as the number one overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. Andrew Luck has led the Clots into the playoffs four of his seven seasons with the team, and two of the seasons the Colt’s did not get into the playoffs (2015 and 2017), Andrew Luck only started for less than 50% of one season, and none of the other season. It seems Luck has been able to keep up a number of post-season appearances that could relate to Peyton Manning’s prominent placement he made for himself in the playoffs, for the vast majority of his NFL career. The question is…does it still mean Andrew Luck is also as talented of a quarterback as Manning was for the Colts? Can Luck even be considered a Quarterback that is “above the norm?” Let’s take a look at some of his stats and characteristics.

1. Andrew Luck is very injury prone. 

Andrew Luck is shown getting tackled by Denver Broncos Danny Trevathan (59), which resulted in injury that ended his 2015 NFL season. Luck had sustained a lacerated kidney, the kind of injury more commonly found in car crash victims than football players. He returned for the start of the 2016 season.

Andrew Luck has always been known as a tough quarterback. However, with that being said, he has allowed himself to be involved in some very rough tackles over the span of his NFL career. When a quarterback is prone to consistently hard hits, especially when a significant percentage involve blindside tackles, a quarterback will begin to deteriorate in health and skill on the field as a result. One example comes from the career of Aaron Rodgers, and how years of poor protection by his offensive line has led him to continuously be hit. With injuries raging from the head to the foot, his whole body has become a target. Similar to Rodgers, both these quarterbacks have had declines in their abilities due to how prone they seem to be towards injuries. You can see the details relating to all of Luck’s injuries over his NFL career here.

2. Almost all of his passing statistics embody one word…average.

I have never found a quarterback to analyze that would be as easy as Luck. His numbers are like the satisfaction you get from eating an average quality piece of plain, white bread. His completion percentage sits at 60.8%, which the low 60s is where the bulk of decent NFL quarterbacks lie (but not the elites). He throws for an average 7.2 yards per completed pass, has an approximate two to one touchdown to interception ratio, has a passer rating (RAT) of 89.5, and has been sacked 174 times in his career (which would be a problem if he did not have a terrible offensive line over his career).

3. The two statistics that stand out.

Andrew Luck displaying his elusiveness in the pocket, scrambling four separate times to gain a total of twenty seven yards. The Colts went on to win this game, a matchup against the 49ers in the 2015 season.

Even though Andrew Luck does not stand out as a superstar in the pass game, he does have overall skills a QB should possess if they really even want to be a star. The first is that Luck can run the ball, and do so with intelligence. He averages about 4.8 yards per carry, and has carried the ball 332 times in his career. While also showing up with fourteen rushing touchdowns, this shows he has also been a useful runner even when the offense is not in scoring position. His other significant stat, his most important asset, is his QBR. This measures a quarterbacks overall rating, as I have mentioned over and over in past posts, and is proof Andrew Luck is being evaluated at a high level. The only seasons he did not finish top fifteen in this category, was in the 2015 and 2017 seasons when he has suffered his major injuries.

Overall, Andrew Luck has shown to me that he is still an average quarterback. Yet with him being in the NFL since 2012, he has had chances to show a “leap of greatness.” With this in mind, along with how prone Luck is to having another severe injury in his upcoming career, I do not think Luck is right for the QB hype.

 

February 9

How Right is the QB Hype: Derek Carr

The Oakland Raiders have been a program of few victories in recent years. For their last fifteen seasons in the NFL, only one of them had them finishing with simply a winning record. That was also the only year that they had appeared in the playoffs for those fifteen seasons, losing the first round in a wild card game against the Houston Texans 27-14 during the 2016-2017 season. To say the least, this has been a rotten program. So a big question can now come to the forefront…can their quarterback even be good? Derek Carr was drafted in the 2014 NFL Draft by the Oakland Raiders, and has played for the team ever since. Even though he has been a quarterback to four losing seasons, he gave the Raiders their first bid into playoffs in over a decade when finishing the 2016 regular season with a 12-4 record. Most importantly, the Raiders did not even lose the playoffs that season with Carr on the field. He was injured towards the very end of regular season, so a backup quarterback had made the start in the loss to the Texans in post-season play. So I think we just need to look at the stats and characteristics of Carr to see where he really sits as a quarterback.

1. Carr’s touchdown to interception ratio is slightly above average. 

Derek Carr is being shown throwing a pass prior to starting against the New York Jets in November of 2015. The Raiders ended up winning the game 34-20.

Derek Carr has thrown for 122 touchdowns in his total career, while throwing for 54 total interceptions. This means that for his entire career, on average, he has thrown about nine touchdown passes for every four interceptions. Even though this is a little above average for starting quarterbacks in the NFL, it is definitely nothing that shows extreme uniqueness, or superior ability at the quarterback position. However, it is key to note that the only quarterbacks that have a better ratio, who have been in the league at least as long as Carr has, are Tom Brady and Russell Wilson.

2. Carr has a 62.8% Completion Rate for his total NFL career.

Even though he started out his career in the bottom 10% of quarterbacks for his completion rates in 2014 and 2015, Derek Carr ended up always finishing in the top 50% or higher from 2016-2018, and is on track to do that again for the 2019. It is pretty impressive how accurate he has been, while also throwing for 18,739 yards as well. Overall, this could be a very promising trait of Carr if he can improve to 70% in the upcoming season.

3. Carr has a very poor QBR.

His RAT (passer rating) is very average, sitting at an overall 88.8. However, his QBR (total quarterback rating), has been quite poor.

Derek Carr was under scrutiny for bad game play in the 2018 season, due to a “fractured” relationship he had with multiple teammates on the Oakland Raiders. 

For those of you who do not know, a QBR is rated on a cumulative scale since a quarterback’s start in the NFL. So, technically for his career thus far, Carr sits at a QBR of 49.0 at the conclusion of the 2018 season. Of all the thirty starting quarterbacks from 2018, this QBR made Carr the third worst starting QB. Considering this number is supposed to represent the overall ability of a quarterback, that is definitely not a promising site.

Carr clearly has some nice looking statistics, but it seems he is not to be trusted for having an overall sense to play the game well. Of what wasn’t mentioned, Carr is terrible at making rushed decisions in the pocket, and has suffered a total of 142 career sacks, about ten percent of them resulting in fumbles. Though he still seems to show a eagerness to win no matter what the circumstance, I do not think his tough determination can bring him back from his inability to lead the Raiders to more than a single winning season under his leadership. When it comes to Derek Carr, I do not think he is right for what seems to be some statistical QB hype.

 

February 1

How Right is the QB Hype: Cam Newton

Carolina Panthers fans have lived with a franchise that has a reputation of performing all over the board. Well maybe posing a painful loosing record for one season, and yet the next season making a run all the way to the Super Bowl, the Panthers have prove to be an unpredictable franchise. When current Panthers quarterback Cam Newton was drafted back in the 2011 NFL Draft, he was able to keep that same trend alive. The Panthers had losing records in 2011 and 2012, with no playoff spot earned, under Newton. Then, in the 2013-2015 seasons, he was able to lead the team into appearances in the divisional round of playoffs (despite their 2014 regular season being a losing record). Then in 2016 they had a very poor record of 6-10, and yet in 2017 had bounced back to finishing 11-5 in regular season, making it only to the divisional round of playoffs. Yet as the cycle goes, this past season (2018), they finished with a losing record of 7-9, without a playoff appearance. You can view this history, dating 2003-2018, here. So now that we know of this extreme inconsistency, how can we view Cam Newton as a quarterback? Has he been consistent in a positive way? Let’s take a look at his statistics and characteristics in the NFL.

1. He is a built, aggressive rusher.

Cam Newton is shown making a tough rush against the Arizona Cardinals in 2015, attempting to leap into the end-zone for a rushing touchdown.

Cam Newton is a well-built quarterback, who has been seen with an ability to shake off tacklers like a true running back attempting to run through a tight seam. Most quarterbacks in the league, especially towards modern-day, have been seem as extremely fragile, and to be protected by numerous game rules that avoid their involvement in a tough hit. He has averaged more than five yards per each rush he has made in his entire NFL career, and has averaged approximately six hundred yards rushing per each regular season in the NFL. He currently has the most successful per season rushing average (between yards and scoring) then any quarterback that is currently in the league, but has also been in it for as long or longer than he has. Quite an impressive addition to a quarterbacks job resume.

 

2. His touchdown to interception ratio is a little too close for comfort.

Cam Newton is a quarterback that has definitely proven to be able to find the end-zone for a respectable amount of touchdowns, but he proves that for him it could come at a cost in terms of his accuracy and decision making. On average, in terms of his total NFL career, Newton throws for approximately ten touchdown passes for every six interceptions he throws. Even though that falls towards the high end of quarterbacks that would be considered “average” starters, that does not put him in the mix of the greats like Brees, Brady, Rothlisburger, and so on. He simply has to learn to make better decisions, and in his specific case, not to try and force so many passes just to hope the best will come of them by chance.

 

3. He has a very low QBR, and a “just average” RAT.

Cam Newton’s QBR being compared to some of the weakest NFL QBs of his first five seasons in the league.

Even though these QBRs were ranked slightly different then those of ESPN, which can be seen here, they still give a good idea of the people this rating has mainly compared him to. His average QBR is a complete reflection of this being a struggle his entire career, with an average QBR of 56.075 when averaging the numbers given by ESPN. That puts him WAY below the greats still in the NFL today, and puts him not even in the top of the “average” mix of starting QBs. His best QBR year showed him finishing ninth of all starting QBs, but on average he would fall below a top fifteen finish for best QBRs in the league. As far as his RAT, as mentioned before, it was just…average. A number that needed to be at least a little above average to suffice his terrible QBR. So in this category, a huge blow to his skill rating.

 

Cam Newton has brought his team into a couple playoff pictures, but was never able to tale it all the way for a Super Bowl win. However, it doesn’t seem like he may be the fit quarterback to do so, and might need replacement if he can not step up in the next couple years. With eight years total in the league, earning starts for every year, he does not have the excuse for “inexperience,” or little time in a starting position. However, I think his time has already passed him by to prove he is a QB great. I do not think Cam Newton is right for the QB hype.

 

 

 

January 25

How Right is the QB Hype: Kirk Cousins

The Minnesota Vikings have undergone extensive quarterback changes after the retirement of legendary quarterback Brett Favre in 2010, which even his career did not end “with glory” when he played his final years with the Vikings at a pretty old age for a football player. Starting with him, the Vikings have been in an array of chaos at this position. While having some small runs in playoffs during some of these seasons of “chaos,” fans are now looking for a quarterback that can take it all the way to the super bowl, and even go another step further to actually win it. Kirk Cousins, however, just finished his first season with the team. This may make him seem like a rookie, but I can assure you he is not. Before coming to the Vikings in 2018, he has spent his entire NFL career with the Washington Redskins. You might be thinking “Oh great. This is another young quarterback who is hopping all over different teams benches, and is lacking experience when we need a starter.”

Kirk Cousins background and statistics being displayed on the televised coverage on the 2012 NFL Draft by ESPN.

Well, even I need to be reminded, that this man has been in the NFL since he was drafted late in the fourth round of the 2012 NFL Draft. So with his last six years being on the Redskins, along with his 2018 debut with the Vikings, what type of impact could he make for this Vikings team in the future? Let’s take a look at his characteristics and statistics.

1. The more Cousins played, the better his stats were.

This was a huge note towards success, and yet also potential failure, when you analyze it. What this shows is that Cousins is a very consistent quarterback, and when he gets repetition he can continue to perfect the finishing touches of a rather consistent game plan. As shown here, he has been under the tutorage of two different coaches while on the Redskins, and obviously a different head coach while being with the Vikings for only one season (2018). Now my big issue with this is quite simple. Whenever he undergoes a massive injury, or a huge change in coaching staff/play calling, can he be seen being able to adapt to that quickly. Sadly, from how he has shown his best work under a consistent atmosphere, I do not see him adapting to change well. However, being able to adapt is what makes a good quarterback. If you can make good plays on the spot, or even can quickly blend in to a new playing style, you are ready to face the unique obstacles that any defense may throw your way.

2. His touchdown to interception ratio is very good.

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins throws a pass during the first half of an NFL football game against the San Francisco 49ers. This is was his first touchdown pass of the 2018. The game took place on September 9th of that same year.

This is quite simple to explain, and luckily Cousins gave me very clean numbers to calculate (much appreciated Kirk). He has thrown for thirty touchdowns in his career, while only throwing ten career interceptions. For starters, that is one of the lowest interception amounts of any quarterback that has been in the league as long as he has been. In fact, there are multiple quarterbacks that currently sit at or beyond ten interceptions, and yet have been in the league for less time than Cousins has. He currently is in 20th place for lowest interception percentage thrown of all time. To finally get to his ratio, it simply is that he has been throwing three touchdown passes for every interception he has thrown. Definitely will take a quarterback that can, on average, put at least eighteen points up on the board before turning the ball over just once. 

3. He can throw that football quite far downfield.

Kirk’s lowest career-long pass went for sixty-two yards in 2013. Besides that slightly low stat, the rest of his seasons showed extreme length in his passing ability. He averages 7.6 yards gained per pass for his entire career, even counting the average 5.5 he got in that 2013 season. Furthermore, he has five of his longest seasonal passes between 75-81, and all of them were touchdown passes. I mean…just look at this:

He shows accuracy for sure, but a lot of “average” quarterbacks can do that. He can do it over huge pass lengths. Hell, he even makes a consistently accurate hail mary seem possible the way he throws.

Kirk Cousins has got a lot of strengths, but I think you all are about to be stunned by this one. I think he has proved to be a student that takes too long to learn the material, and is being surpassed in the classroom of diverse football play calling, mechanics, and multiple other kinds of adaptions needed for a game that always has new tricks and magicians for each season. Kirk cannot be that student, he doesn’t work well with new tricks, and he won’t be able to match some of the magicians that are and will be coming to his stage. I do not think Kirk Cousins is right for the QB hype.

January 18

How Right is the QB Hype: Lamar Jackson

The Baltimore Ravens have always been a program never to be counted out in the twenty-first century. They have also appeared in playoffs a fair share of times in these last couple decades, with the 2001 and 2012 appearances leading to Super Bowl victories. Fans of the Baltimore Ravens also cannot launch aggressive complaints about their quarterback position. Joe Falcco has  been quarterback of the Baltimore Ravens since 2008, and has started for them every season up until 2018. He also has been a rather reliable quarterback, playing in every single game from 2008-2017 except for six games of the 2015 season. Even though you all are more then welcome to view his stats here, the real question is how did this consistent starter end up sitting out for seven games THIS season (2018). Well I guess we better look at the man that let this, almost eleven-year starting quarterback of the Ravens, find a warm seat on the bench. Lamar Jackson was a rookie for this 2018 season, being the thirty-second overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft. However, Joe Flacco had still held onto the starting quarterback position for the first nine games of the season. However Flacco suffered an injury that forced him to sit on the bench for a couple games, and the Jackson got the opportunity to start his first regular season NFL game.

Though Joe Flacco was able to escape having a torn hip, there was a great fear of dislocation if he returned too soon. He was injured during Week 9 of the 2018 season, and this status was reported by Ravens head coach John Harbaugh on November 26th, 2018. This was according to RAVENSWIRE (media source for the Baltimore Ravens).

After that, there was no looking back. Lamar Jackson remained the starter for the entire 2018-2019 season, until the Ravens lost to the Lost Angeles Chargers 23-17 in one of the Wild Card games that kicked off post-season football. Now the real question is…should Jackson get the start for the 2019 NFL Season? Let’s take a look at his stats and characteristics, and see what we can find.

1. Lamar Jackson has the ability to run.

Jackson was very well known for an explosive running game, while playing with Louisville from 2015-2017. Between his three seasons there, he scored a total of fifty rushing touchdowns, and broke the school’s record for rushing yards gained in a single season by a quarterback in 2016 (he rushed for 1,571 yards). Yet he was not done there, breaking all types of rushing records for that school. He has brought that mobility to the NFL, with unwavering speed and technical running that had led the Ravens into a 2018 Wild Card playoff spot.

2. He can run…but can he pass?

Lamar Jackson is shown dropping back to make a pass in the pocket, during Week 16 of the 2018 regular season. This game led to a crucial win to secure the Ravens a place in post-season.

Lamar Jackson has terrible passing numbers, to say the least. He completed 99 of 170 attempted passes, for an overall 58.2 completion percentage. His vision of the pocket seems to be an issue when he cannot run. His passes can frequently be prone to interceptions, and he has a bad blind spot for seeing incoming pressure when the pocket collapses. Also, he has bad vision down the field, notably missing wide open receivers during this season, some of which could have easily been brought into the end-zone for a touchdown.   Luckily he still averages about 7.1 yards per completed pass, which at least shows he is good for more than the short passes. He showed similar patterns of this while starting in college, and is definitely something to be concerned about.

3. He needs more starting time in the NFL.

We have to face the facts. No quarterback can be fully evaluated based off starting less than half the season in their rookie year. There will need to be multiple adjustments made before the 2019 regular season, and coaching Lamar Jackson is one of many.

Lamar Jackson working with Baltimore Ravens’ quarterbacks coach James Urban, a new addition to the team for 2018.

Jackson needs more time to become educated and skillful towards professional-level play, and also needs to have more reps as a starter to get a better feel for the game in the first place. This is a common struggle in trying to evaluate quarterbacks in their rookie year, but they have to be recruited for the NFL on at least some type of merit!

Overall, Lamar Jackson has stunned me. When I saw him playing for Louisville, I thought he would be a joke to try and fit into the playing style of a true NFL quarterback. However, I have seen remarkable things from his starting time in the 2018 season, and a character of poise and might in his first ever post-season game (even though it resulted in a loss). I do think Lamar Jackson is right for the QB hype, and I would go a step further to say he is going to earn the starting quarterback position over seasoned quarterback Joe Flacco.

 

 

 

January 18

How Right is the QB Hype: Russell Wilson

Seahawks fans have not had much to complain about, in terms of how well their team was doing. The team has been to the playoffs with all different types of quarterbacks, as you can see in their season records, and the program has not been slowing down since last season. Russell Wilson had come to the team, however, just after they had scored some of their worst season records in franchise history. Three of the last four seasons were losing seasons, before Wilson arrived. The passing game really had not become electric, and the ball usually did not move far with the lack of talent the offense seemed to be having. Russell Wilson was drafted in 2012, and from that season on the Seahawks have never had a loosing record in regular season. They also were able to make back to back Super Bowl appearances in the 2013 and 2014 seasons, winning only the game of 2013 with a crushing 43-8 victory over the Denver Broncos.

Seahawks fans shown in sellout crowds during the 2013 season, being rated one of the toughest places for away teams to go play, and one of the loudest places to play at.

Even though there is no clear argument against Seattle being successful, we still have to see if that success is being fostered by the game play of Wilson. So let’s look at his stats, and overall character as an NFL quarterback.

1. His passing game has been very impressive.

When Russell Wilson was first drafted, many people felt he would have an uphill battle in the passing game due to his small height. Just barely making six feet tall, he has proven that wrong with an electric pass game. He has thrown for over three thousand total yards every season he has been in the NFL (which has all been with the Seattle Seahawks), with an unwavering completion percentage that has always landed between sixty one to sixty nine percent. He also averages nearly eight yards a pass for his entire career, and is notorious for delivering unexpected deep passes that he can deliver right on the spot. He also works very well in a hurry up offense, which shows he is crucial at making these good passes with good use of the clock.

2. He is one of the best mobile quarterbacks ever to play in the NFL.

 

Russell Wilson shown running out of the pocket to score one of many rushing touchdowns that les to the Seahawks 43-8 victory over the Denver Broncos in the 2014 season’s super bowl matchup.

Wilson is simply outstanding at this aspect of the game. He has rushed for 3,641 yards his entire career, averaging 5.7 yards per rush. However, while he is truly one of the best at moving quick and intelligently, he has been known to lose the football quite a few times. He has fumbled the football at least two times each season in the NFL, accumulating 24 total fumbles in his career. However, this does not dictate his intelligence or speed with his running and technical ability, but is simply just an issue he has with containing the football.

3. He has a very good QBR and amazing RAT.

If you are not familiar with my past blogs, you can go here to find what these terms mean in the glossary of which most NFL statistics are derived from. To explain more of what they are measuring, QBR measures the quarterbacks overall rating while the RAT only rates the quarterback in relation to his passing. The issue with his QBR, even though it is at a healthy average of 66.4, is that it has been very inconsistent over Wilson’s entire career. His highest QBR came from his rookie year, at 74.8, yet it never grew from that every other year he has played. He even scored his all-time low QBR, 57.1, just two seasons ago in 2016. However, this has not stopped him from being on the good side when averaging other quarterbacks per each year. He falls in the top fifteen QBRs every season he has been in the NFL. His RAT has been even better, averaging 100.3 for his NFL career. To give you all perspective, the legendary NFL quarterbacks usually leave with RATs that range 100+, and Wilson averaging this before retirement shows huge credit to his pass game.

Overall, this quarterback is very good. This is one case where I have to say that the numbers are not too great at visualizing how great of a player he really is. Nonetheless, he has proved himself in the statistics that matter, along with showing the characteristics of a quarterback that knows how to win games. I truly think, when it comes to Russell Wilson, that he is right for the QB hype.

 

 

November 30

How Right is the QB Hype: Jared Goff

Jared Goff shown throwing a pass for the Los Angeles Rams. He has played on the team his entire NFL career (2016-Present)

The Los Angeles Rams, formerly known as the St. Louis Rams, is a franchise you wouldn’t want to face up against in its most recent years. Between the 2017 and 2018 football seasons, this team is shaping up to be a real monster to defeat. The Los Angeles Rams (LAR) utilize Todd Gurley II in the rushing game, and also have improved their passing and coaching. Jared Goff has been the eyes in the sky for the LAR passing game, improving significantly from his rookie year with the team in 2016, until present day with that very same franchise. So let’s take a look at his statistics and characteristics to see if he has, and will be, a talented Quarterback.

1. The vast majority of his stats are consistent improvements from his rookie year.

Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay talks with Jared Goff during the fourth quarter of a 16-10 Seattle Seahawks win at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. This was during the 2017 season.

This is a huge factor to make a good QB, especially if this growth happens right from the QB’s rookie year. With Goff showing this growth, he is showing that he can match up to the level of veteran QBs when he is given time and mentorship.

2. Goff has a very good Touchdown to Interception ratio. 

Goff has only thrown twenty interceptions in his 33 starts with the LAR. Furthermore, he has thrown a total of 59 Touchdown passes in his 33 starts. This shows that Goff is learning to limit his interceptions, while still knowing when and where to throw for a considerable number of Touchdown passes. It is very important to note that he has improved this ratio each year he has played, on a consistent basis. This is showing the growth in Goff’s experience, and speaks to the first point of this blog as much as it does this point.

3. He has been given ideal resources for the majority of his career.

Currently, Goff has one of the best Running Backs in the league. He also has one of the best, experienced receiving groups in the NFL, and a fantastic Offensive Line, which has given Goff countless opportunities to make good plays (you can see the LAR player roster for this year). It may not be happening now, but he will need to rise to an occasion where he will not be in as comfortable of a position as his current teammates are giving him.

4. His QBR and RAT are growing.

Goff has a QBR of 54.6 from 2016, 62.1 from 2017, and currently a 67.7 QBR for this season (2018). His RAT has made a similar growth pattern, and now sits at a comfortable 113.5 for this season. He has shown great improvements in decision making, strength, and accuracy on the field. His numbers currently align with veteran growth patterns when they were as young as Goff is to the NFL, and even aligns some of his numbers with veterans still in the league today. For example, here is a comparison of his QBR for all three of his seasons with the LAR.

Jared Goff leading his team, the Los Angeles Rams, out of the tunnel for the 2018 Veterans Appreciation game.

Jared Goff has shown potential, but he still has a lot he needs to face before he can be proven to have true greatness. He has only appeared in one post-season game, in which his team lost to the Falcons in the 2017 NFC Wild Card. He also needs to prove, like I said before, how good he can be with less resources at his fingertips. Despite these two factors, however, I still think Goff has proven right for the QB hype. I think he will take his team to great places, and can very reasonably make his first Super Bowl game after the conclusion of the 2018 regular season.

 

 

 

November 13

How Right is the QB Hype: Marcus Mariota

Titans fans know that their program has a tendency to be inconsistent. It is either a complete garbage year, with potentially three or four wins to take to the bank, or a year in where they finish around an even record (9-7, 7-9, 8-8, etc.). A franchise that has changed a lot of its features over the years, they truly are in DESPERATE need of a strong foundation to thrive upon for years and years to come. One aspect of a football team that establishes foundation is a quarterback, and foundation is exactly what the Titans hoped for when they drafted Marcus Mariota for the 2015 NFL Season. In 2017, he allowed for Tennessee to have its first appearance in the playoffs since 2008. However, the team has kept consistently inconsistent play in regular season, which is a huge problem for a franchise hoping to establish itself. So, let’s take a look at Mariota’s statistics and features to see if he has been, and still will be lending this program a helping hand.

1. He has excellent awareness and intelligence while on the field.

Mariota shown signaling his home crowd to quiet down after a big offensive play was made by them against the Dallas Cowboys this season (2018).

Marcus Mariota never fails to have a great read on defensive plays, can sense pressure in the pocket, and also can sell a good share of some trick plays. Not to mention the fact he is also a very mobile quarterback, which allows him to make more decisions to run when a receiver is not open for a pass. You never know what is going through his head, but he definitely has the wits and guts to secure major victories.

2. His interception to TD ratio is very inconsistent.

https://youtu.be/HUcgaVUR2e8

While leading the Titans to playoffs in 2017, he managed to throw fifteen interceptions, with only thirteen touchdowns to show for it. In his total NFL career, in which he has started every season, he has thrown 65 touchdowns and 39 interceptions. He tries to force big plays in the pocket, and unfortunately it has led to some poor turnovers. Once he starts to play a more conservative passing game, I expect these numbers to improve significantly.

3. His average passing yards and rushing yards are very good.

For a person that throws for more average yards than most veteran QBs, that are still in the league, that is impressive enough on its own. But that’s not all! He can run too! He averages 5.8 yards per rush, more than most other quarterbacks who are even in the NFL. His running ability is a huge game changer, and the fact that he can pass for long distances is just icing on the cake for a claim that this guy is capable of some big plays.

4. He has a decent QBR and RAT

These terms that have been used consistently through most of my posts, so I hope they do not need much explaining each time they are factored statistics. Mariota has a QBR that has always averaged right around the middle of the pack, as far as starting quarterbacks spanning from the 2015, to the present 2018 season. What really stinks though, is that has tended to be the same with his RAT. His career average RAT is 88.8, and falls right in the middle of the average RAT of current starters in the NFL. He needs to get these numbers to stand out, in order for him to stand out as a QB.

Mariota practicing during the Tennessee Titans 2018 training camp

Marcus Mariota is simply nothing better than average. He just has so much work to improve on, and has already had a few years to improve. Even though I still like him as a “start-able” QB, I do not see him performing any miracles to ensure post-season play the Titans fans want to see. Personally, I think Mariota is not right for the QB hype, but can remain a starting quarterback to gain a decent amount of regular season victories.