Just last week, Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page, professors at Princenton and Northwestern respectively, released a study through Princeton that claims that the United States is no longer a democracy, but rather an oligarchy (state controlled by a small group of people). The dramatic and shocking nature of this claim has lead to the study receiving a fair amount of attention. Gilens and Page supported their claim by first looking at the results of nearly 1,800 policies enacted between 1981 and 2002. They compared these results to the preferences of the average American (50th percentile), the upper echelon of Americans (90th percentile), and the major lobbying groups. The conclusion of this comparison was that the majority of the policies benefitted one of, if not both, of the latter two groups instead of the former. Gilens and Page went on to describe the importance of your preferences as “near-zero” and “statistically unimportant.”
If you’re skeptical of this discrepancy between public opinion and the political action that is taken, consider the recently proposed plan for mandatory background checks on all gun purchases. This proposal seems very reasonable, and thus, according to a Gallup poll, over 80% of Americans supported its enacting. However, due to the strength of the gun lobby, the bill died after being voted on.
Many feel that the issues behind this depreciation of the value of your opinion are related to crooked politicians who are prone to over-politicking. This study seems to indicate that there is evidence to support this claim. However, this politicians themselves would likely indicate that they were just doing what they felt was best for their constituents. This raises the classic American debate of whether Congressmen should act as trustees or delegates for their constituents. They’re given the power of their people. Should they use it to do what they think is best or what their people seem to want? This dilemma is a central one for Congressmen, and seems to be the best evidence against this new claim.
Beyond losing value to those with more political muscle, your opinion is also very hurt by the practice of gerrymandering. Gerrymandering is the process of manipulating the borders of a Congressional district with the intention of leading a candidate from a certain background to easy victory. Redistricting generally occurs after House seats are reapportioned, or after the decennial census. The process is controlled at the state level.
Pennsylvania serves as a great example of this situation. After the 2010 census, Pennsylvania was set to lose a House member and Republicans were in control of how the districts would be redrawn to account for this change. This control allowed the GOP to turn formerly blue districts in to House races in which Republicans would be able to compete. They achieved their goal with great success, as Pennsylvania Democratic candidates received more than 50% of the state’s total votes, but still only 5/18 seats. In districts drawn for competition, Democrats would have likely won nine or ten seats in close contests. Instead, they walloped their opposition in 5 races and then struggled in the rest. Pennsylvania’s gerrymandering is not even necessarily the worst. It is truly a nationwide epidemic. See the Illinois 4th District below for a particularly egregious example.
The votes of Republicans in this district, are worth almost nothing, as 3/4 of the district are Democrats. However, this also leads to a very inflated value of the votes of Republicans in surrounding areas. With the green and purple dots example, Republicans would be the purple dots here.
There is some question as to whether or not your votes count for anything to begin with. As Congressmen increasingly disregard the wishes of their constituents, whether or not someone is disenfranchised will almost start losing relevance. However, gerrymandering has already greatly deteriorated the influence of many voters’ opinions and their ability to get candidates that they like in Congress. Do you think that this is justified? And if not, what actions can be taken to make Congressional decision-making more representative of the population on the whole’s opinions?