Project Team
Student
Paige Elliott
Meteorology, Actuarial Science
Central Michigan University
Mentor(s)
Climate Dynamics
Horticulture
Oceanography
Meteorology
Project Video
Project Abstract
Since the late 1900’s, apple growers have noticed that apple trees were blooming early. With an increase in late winter/ early spring temperatures, early blooms are not uncommon. In this study, we sought out to determine what aspects of climate change were affecting the bloom date. Early bloom dates create a risk for late season frosts that can affect crop yields. Due to increased climate risks, it is important to prepare farmers for the trend of earlier bloom dates. Climate data and bloom date data (1975-2020) were analyzed through a set of statistical analysis to determine the cause of the earlier blooms. Due to the phenology of the apple trees, it has been determined that bloom date is a direct product of the climate. Our results show that once chilling hours, or dormancy, have been satisfied, increased air temperatures have the greatest impact on bloom date. More specifically, March and April temperatures experience a negative correlation with bloom date, and these temperatures allow a basis for predicting future bloom dates.