By Wael Jabr📧, and Suvrat Dhanorkar📧
In International Conference on Information Systems (ICIS) 2023 Proceeddings, 2023, 13. https://aisel.aisnet.org/icis2023/soc_impactIS/soc_impactIS/13
In International Conference on Information Systems (ICIS) 2023 Proceeddings, 2023, 13. https://aisel.aisnet.org/icis2023/soc_impactIS/soc_impactIS/13
In INFORMS Journal on Computing, 2024, ahead of print, published online: February 2. https://doi.org/10.1287/ijoc.2022.0044
Discrete-event simulation models generate random variates from input distributions and compute outputs according to the simulation logic. The input distributions are typically fitted to finite real-world data and thus are subject to estimation errors that can propagate to the simulation outputs: an issue commonly known as input uncertainty (IU). This paper investigates quantifying IU using the output confidence intervals (CIs) computed from bootstrap quantile estimators. The standard direct bootstrap method has overcoverage due to convolution of the simulation error and IU; however, the brute-force way of washing away the former is computationally demanding. We present two new bootstrap methods to enhance direct resampling in both statistical and computational efficiencies using shrinkage strategies to down-scale the variabilities encapsulated in the CIs. Our asymptotic analysis shows how both approaches produce tight CIs accounting for IU under limited input data and simulation effort along with the simulation sample-size requirements relative to the input data size. We demonstrate performances of the shrinkage strategies with several numerical experiments and investigate the conditions under which each method performs well. We also show advantages of nonparametric approaches over parametric bootstrap when the distribution family is misspecified and over metamodel approaches when the dimension of the distribution parameters is high.
Keywords: Bootstrap resampling; Input uncertainty; Nonparametric; Simulation; Shrinkage
In Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 2024, 91, February. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2023.101780
Deprivation Costs Functions (DCFs) are key to designing effective relief distribution operations after disasters. In this paper, data are collected in Colombia and Ecuador to estimate DCFs for water and food, considering the influence of individuals’ attitudes on preparedness, risk perception, and trust in response agents. Hybrid Choice Models are used to analyze and compare the estimated DCFs. The analyses confirm that DCFs differ by commodity. Additionally, socioeconomic characteristics of individuals influence their willingness to pay for critical supplies to reduce their own suffering. Preparedness, risk perceptions and trust in response agents impact individuals’ behavior in disaster situations. The results also show that community and religious groups are considered the most trusted response agents in both countries. As a result, their involvement in official relief efforts should be more articulated. Colombia and Ecuador show significant differences in their estimated DCFs, confirming that deprivation costs are context-specific by nature. As such, DCFs should not be directly transferred among disaster locations. The findings from this study will support decision-makers in designing effective preparedness and response plans that are based on trust relationships that serve as foundations for community resilience.
Keywords: Humanitarian logistics; Deprivation costs; Hybrid choice models; Trust; Preparedness; Risk perception
In Proceedings of the 2023 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC), 2024, 421–432, published online: January 31. https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC60868.2023.10407467
Bootstrapping has been used to characterize the impact on discrete-event simulation output arising from input model uncertainty for thirty years. The distribution of simulation output statistics can be very non-normal, especially in simulation of heavily loaded queueing systems, and systems operating at a near optimal value of the output measure. This paper presents issues facing simulationists in using bootstrapping to provide confidence intervals for parameters related to the distribution of simulation output statistics, and identifies appropriate alternatives to the basic and percentile bootstrap methods. Both input uncertainty and ordinary output analysis settings are included.
Keywords: Uncertainty; Load modeling
In INFORMS Transactions on Education, 2024, ahead of print, published online January 11. https://doi.org/10.1287/ited.2022.0072ca
The case presents a sourcing problem and a manufacturing problem faced by an original equipment manufacturer, seeking recommendations for sourcing a diverse range of parts for high-voltage equipment, as well as making decisions on the manufacturing strategy for a component used in a water monitoring system. The case provides an opportunity to explore the qualitative and quantitative aspects of three-dimensional (3D) printing versus traditional manufacturing, specifically in terms of operational cost. Furthermore, this case facilitates discussions on the potential impact of 3D printing on supply chains. It is suitable for use in graduate and undergraduate courses, as it introduces key concepts such as manufacturing and inventory policies, queueing theory, and life cycle analysis. Ultimately, the case is designed to promote a deeper understanding of the challenges and opportunities that manufacturers face in today’s rapidly evolving technological landscape.
Keywords: Centralized/decentralized manufacturing; Make-to-stock (MTS); Make-to-order (MTO); Inventory costs; Economic order quantity (EOQ); (r, Q) policy; Life cycle analysis; Multiclass queue
In System Dynamics Review, 2024, 40 (1), January/March, e1747. https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1747
In Journal of Operations Management, 2023, 69 (8): 1320–1341. https://doi.org/10.1002/joom.1255
We experimentally investigate whether mass customization enhances sustainability and firm outcomes in a fast fashion context. Fast fashion delivers fashion trends to consumers quickly and cheaply but has detrimental effects on the environment (e.g., waste accumulation, water pollution). To mitigate these harmful effects, we examine how different points of customer involvement in mass customization affect the anticipated number of months to product disposal and willingness-to-pay for mass-customized products. We employ a series of experiments and find that consumer perceptions of the degree of customization increase as the point of customer involvement shifts upstream from Use to Assembly to Fabrication to Design and that the anticipated number of months to disposal and willingness-to-pay increase as the point of customer involvement shifts upstream to Design. We also find that the implementation of customer involvement in mass customization matters. Overall, these results provide evidence that mass customization via Design may not only help slow fast fashion down, which has major sustainability implications, but it may also present a win-win opportunity for both the environment and firms (in terms of the bottom line—provided, of course, that it does not have any major cost disadvantages).
Keywords: Fast fashion; Mass customization; Point of customer involvement; Product disposal; Push-pull boundary; Willingness-to-pay
In MIS Quarterly, 2023. 47 (4): 1647–1662. https://doi.org/10.25300/MISQ/2022/16422
Social media—and, in particular, social media influencers—are playing an increasingly central role in shaping public opinion on a variety of issues. The political sphere is no exception. In response to the impact that social media influencers have on citizens’ political views and voting behaviors, political parties adapt their messages and policies during election campaigns. Media outlets, too, faced with competition for readership from social media, are adjusting their news coverage. To analyze the nature and extent of the impact of social media on parties’ policies, media outlets’ news reports, and citizens’ opinions, we used a game theoretical model of electoral competition involving four key stakeholders—citizens, political parties, media outlets, and social media influencers. Our results show that with social media, parties’ policy positions become more moderate while media outlets’ editorial positions become more extreme. We also show that citizens’ opinions may become more polarized when the influencers’ true editorial positions are more homogeneous as a result of increased information distortion.
Keywords: Social media; Social media influencers; Information distortion; Electoral competition; Editorial position; Ideology; Polarization
In Production and Operation Management, 2023. 32 (12): 3873–3889. https://doi.org/10.1111/poms.14066
Near-constant Internet access through desktop or mobile devices has turned self-service support forums into the first port of call for users seeking to troubleshoot product or service issues. The firms providing these products and services also benefit from this trend since it reduces user support costs by diverting service requests away from costlier support channels, such as help desks. For the continued success of such a forum, however, the managing entity must ensure that users receive timely solutions to their inquiries quickly and regularly. We develop a mathematical model of a user forum’s operations to obtain a “white box” view of a user forum and reveal the support system’s dynamics. Then, using a large and comprehensive dataset of questions and answers from Apple’s iPhone user forum, we empirically estimate the forum’s performance to validate the predictions of the mathematical model. Our results demonstrate that the predictions closely match the forum’s actual performance, with an error of less than 10%. We then propose and analyze an optimal threshold policy that boosts a thread to rekindle user interest and demonstrate the benefit of our intervention policy in managing the iPhone forum.
Keywords: Customer support channels; Empirical validation; Optimization; User forums
In Production and Operations Management, 2023, 32 (12), 4021–4048. https://doi.org/10.1111/poms.14076
Customers of many original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in business-to-business markets today demand product servicizing in which instead of buying the product from the OEM they buy the use of a product during a lease. During the lease, (i) the customer uses the product and returns it to the OEM after the use reaches a specific level, (ii) the OEM remanufactures the product in a costly process and sends it back to the customer, and this usecycle is repeated multiple times. The lease terms typically involve a use-based payment. While a greater product use by a customer brings a larger revenue to the OEM, it also increases the remanufacturing cost incurred by the OEM. We investigate this trade-off using an analytical model for a contract that is used extensively in industry. For the case of homogeneous customers with a common use rate of the product, we optimize lease payment terms and identify market and product-remanufacturing characteristics for which the OEM should servicize the product instead of selling it. We show that an OEM should not servicize a product when the customers’ use rate exceeds a threshold. This is because, beyond this threshold, the remanufacturing cost increases disproportionably, exceeding the higher usage-based revenue. Subsequently, we consider a market with two segments with different use rates. We consider two servicizing modes: (i) servicize both market segments or (ii) selectively servicize only one segment and sell the product to the other segment, and the default mode of selling in both segments. We develop optimal lease payment terms for these use-based servicizing modes, identify thresholds of product and market characteristics for the optimality of these modes. Finally, we extend the results to a market with more than two segments and compare the environmental impacts of the servicizing or sell decision. Numerical results informed by empirical data show that the OEM’s loss of profit from choosing a suboptimal servicizing/sell decision can be significant.
Keywords: Market segmentation; Multiple usecycle products; Remanufacture; Servicizing operations