Who is going to win MVP this season?

We are now just four days away from the first 2022-23 NBA regular season game! Yet, we’ve dodged the age-old question: who’s going to win MVP (Most Valuable Player) this season? Choosing who wins MVP is impossible. With talents like Giannis, Luka Doncic, Steph Curry, Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, and many more superstars, the NBA talent pool is more competitive than it ever was! That’s why we can’t accurately predict who wins the highly esteemed accolade, so we’re going to choose two players that have a shot at winning it.

Who’s not going to win MVP?

Let’s take a moment to appreciate the reigning two-time MVP Nikola Jokic’s greatness. From his mind-blowing passes to the elegant Sombor Shuffle (named after his hometown), Jokic hails as an all-time great anytime he graces the floor. Jokic enters his prime at age 27, and his teammates point guard Jamal Murray and forward Michael Porter Jr. return from season-ending injuries. The Nuggets finally ready themselves as contenders in the Western Conference, so Jokic’s case as the leader of a successful team strengthens. We don’t need to discuss Jokic’s impressive statistical feats nor his earning First-Team All-NBA nods the past three seasons.

Nikola Jokic posting up against Karl-Anthony Towns – Jeff Zillgitt, USA Today.

So, why’s he in the not-going-to-win-MVP discussion? Jokic consecutively won MVP the past two seasons, and voter fatigue exists, unfortunately. No player since Larry Bird (aka Larry Legend) has won the award three consecutive times. So, yeah, Jokic eliminates himself from the race.

Let’s talk about an actual candidate: Jayson Tatum

Tatum absolutely flopped in the Finals. His 100 turnovers in this past playoffs is inexcusable!

However, we must acknowledge his regular-season surge after the All-Star Break: 30.4 PPG, 7.0 RPG (rebounds per game), and 5.1 APG (assists per game) on supreme efficiency.

Tatum successfully blocking Durant’s shot in the Nets-Celtics series – Ben Cohen, Wall Street Journal.

Tatum’s post-All-Star glory signals his potential as an all-around player––just like Celtics legend Larry Bird! JT’s momentum carried into playoffs, but there was another sign his game would elevate to superstardom: his elite defense. In Game 2 of the Nets-Celtics series (Celtics swept them), Tatum held future first-ballot Hall of Famer Kevin Durant to 4 points on 0% shooting and the overall Nets team to 18% shooting when Tatum acted as the primary defender. This lockdown defense shows JT’s potential as an elite two-way player among the ranks of greats like Kawhi Leonard.

Regarding this regular season, Tatum’s two-way ability makes him a flexible asset for the lethal Celtics squad. JT is only 24 years old, so the sky’s the limit; he can regain consistency with his jumper and further grow as a lockdown defender. Moreover, the Celtics just suspended head coach Ime Udoka, creating a leadership vacuum in the locker-room that Tatum can fill. Tatum will certainly keep up with his superstar trajectory, but can he lead the Celtics to a top Eastern Conference seed with consistent play? If yes, Tatum deserves MVP.

However, the award is only one man’s trophy to lose: Joel Embiid

Quite possibly the most unfortunate player in the league, Joel Embiid lost his MVP case to Nikola Jokic the past two seasons (Jokic was MVP both times). In the 2020 season, Embiid scored 28.5 points on 63.6% true shooting; the following season, he won the scoring record–the first center since Shaquille O’Neal to achieve the feat.

Embiid squaring up against Marvin Bagley – JacksonJFrank, Liberty Ballers.

Given his mid-range and three-point ability, Embiid threatens the floor as a rare big man who can shoot the ball and thrash his defender at the rim (no offense to Jarrett Allen). Embiid’s spacing ability opens the court. Sixers’ point guard can run pick-and-rolls (set a screen and pressure rim), and shooters can score on pick-and-pops (run to open space and shoot).

Along with his scoring ability, Embiid provides great rim defense. Embiid troubles rim-runners at an 87^th percentile; in simple words, don’t mess with Embiid at the rim. Embiid earned three All-Defensive Second team honors for his career, so opponents certainly fear him on both ends of the floor.

But why is the MVP Embiid’s to lose? The Sixers prime themselves for a championship run. James Harden slimmed down and visibly conditioned his body this off-season. Tyrese Maxey has built on his post-season momentum in the pre-season. All in all, Embiid’s supporting cast, along with Embiid own’s dominant play, can push the Sixers to the first seed. A first seed and impressive two-way play should ensure Embiid his MVP, but will fate bode his way?