Ratings, Ratings, Ratings…and China

Donald Trump loves to brag about ratings. As far back as 2010, he tweeted out “The ratings for the Celebrity Apprentice were fantastic and everyone had a great time. It was a terrific season — congrats to everyone!” Even more recently, he’s used ratings to praise Fox News on its “unbelievable ratings hike” and using them to attack the Washington Post and CNN saying, “So many stories about me in the @WashingtonPost. They are as bad as ratings challenged @CNN.” I think that our President, for his own sake in the next election, should worry less about the ratings of political programs and more on the type of rating that will contribute to him either staying in the oval office or not: his approval rating.

Approval ratings are not the end-all-be-all factor for determining if a presidential candidate will win in November, but they are a healthy measure as to how the country views the president’s performance. Trump’s numbers are pretty consistent. He manages to keep an approval rating in the low 40s and a disapproval rating in the low 50s. While the election is over a year away, Trump is still going to benefit from that number being as high as possible.

Let’s put “The Donald”‘s approval ratings in context. According to a Gallup poll which measured presidents ranging from Truman to Obama’s approval ratings through their first terms, Trump’s 41.6% he is currently boasting is the lowest. Even presidents who lost, such as Ford and Carter, had ratings of 47.2 and 45.5, respectively. Now, I think it’s still valid to question how well polls can measure the public’s opinion of Donald given the fact that on RealClearPolitics, polls had Hillary beating Trump by margins of 5, 10, and at one point even 19.6 points. But Trump is still in dangerous territory if he can’t manage to pick his numbers up. He’s proven he can get his approval rating to above 44 – but will he do it again?

I think largely that choice is up to him, but there are a few things he has to do. First, he has to avoid scandal. While controversies surrounding the man have not ever made him lose his base, they do affect how moderates and disenfranchised democrats view him and the prospect of voting for his reelection. Second, he has to figure out what he’s going to do about his biggest strength and weakness as president: the economy. That means he needs to find a solution to the trade war with China – and fast. People don’t like recessions, it hurt us deeply as a country just a decade ago and it’s unlikely voters will cast a ballot for someone who’s policies they think might end up in them or their loved ones losing a job or business.  A stop to the trade war and a deal with China, which benefits the people Trump vowed to fight for, will result in a better stock market, happier voters, and less anxiety about what the future holds.

Will a deal be struck? Who knows. Trump has said he would consider an interim deal with China leading to some people being optimistic. But fear of a recession is something that democrats will, rightfully,  run on and try to convince the American people that Trump is the cause of. No one knows for certain if there is going to be such a downturn in the economy that it leads to a recession, but even the fear of one may be enough for Trump to lose in 2020. That’s why if he wants to remain in the office for another term, or even more than that as he’s joked about, he’ll have to figure out a solution to the trade war. Will it be easy? No. But Trump promised he could take on China and voters aren’t wrong to hold him accountable for that.

Approval ratings a year before the election aren’t going to guarantee that Trump will win or lose, but they can tell us that he’s now at one of the lowest points in his presidency and it’s up to him to respond. Let’s see how he reacts.