It seems as if the incompetency of the Iowa Democratic Party overshadowed the results of its’ caucus. Once the results (and I can’t emphasize this next part enough) finally came in, it felt as if many Americans just saw the results and said “oh really?” the same way you do when you’re in a conversation you want to end.
But we should take a moment to understand what went down in a historically vital caucus. “Every winner of a competitive major-party presidential nomination contest since 1980 except one started off by winning the Iowa caucuses, the New Hampshire primary, or both,” a Vox article stated. It also goes on to talk about how it can narrow the field. After his dismal showing in Iowa, Andrew Yang’s campaign laid off staff, Joe Biden looks like he’s on his heels (for now), and Klobuchar was less than impressive. It was two people who did stand out, however. Senator Bernie Sanders and former Mayor Pete Buttigieg, especially the latter.
If a year or two ago, I had told the average American that an openly gay, 38 year old mayor of a town in Indiana would win the Iowa primary, they would chuckle and ask me to tell them who really won. I would reply that I’m serious, that Mayor Pete looks poised to compete in this race for at least the foreseeable future and is heading to New Hampshire with all the momentum he could ask for (well, he could have gotten more momentum if the Iowa Democratic Party knew how to run a caucus, but apparently that was too much to ask). But while this is impressive, it’s important not to read too much into this win.
First, let’s consider the demographics. According to the New York Times analysis of voters’ demographics, 91% of the voters in the caucus were white. He also did not do well with younger people, a demographic the Democratic Party relies heavily on in elections. The three groups he won were men ages 45-64, women ages 45-64, and women 65+. There are so few minorities in Iowa that the New York Times did not even have data on how they voted, but if we look at some polls, it’s tough to imagine he would have done well. According to a December article from Business Insider, he is satisfactory only to 27% of African-Americans, while Biden and Warren have support of 66% and 54% from African-Americans, respectively. He also did well with voters with a household income of $50,000+, but came in third with voters with less than that amount. While he also did well with those who consider themselves moderate, beating Biden by ten points, however, he was significantly behind when it came to “somewhat liberal” or “very liberal” voters.” This can lead us to rightfully consider whether supporters of the more liberal/socialist wing of the Democrat party would support him in November if he was the nominee.
But although it’s uncertain how many more states Mayor Pete will win, one thing is for sure: he’s in a much better position than he was a couple months ago. He goes into the debate tonight and into New Hampshire as the front-runner and a viable option to many to represent the moderate wing of the Democratic Party. Even though Iowa may not be the best representative of the whole country, a win is a win. He should, and will take it and look to repeat on Tuesday.