In last week’s blog, we examined the history of transportation in the context of cargo shipping. In this week’s blog, I am going to analyze the future of many different forms of transportation, and make predictions as to what will happen to cargo shipping in the decades to come.

 

The Future of Air Shipments:

 

While it is unlikely that any obvious major changes will occur to the design of airplanes themselves, it is likely that changes that make aircraft more efficient will occur. As companies are always seeking to lower transportation costs, planes will likely get faster and become more fuel efficient in the future. Air travel remains one of the most popular forms of shipping cargo, because it is fast, efficient, reliable, and cheap. Because of this, it is estimated that air travel will increase by 3% every year for the next decade. One example of a major change that could occur, however, is the advent of autonomous planes. While this technology is far away, many airplane manufacturers are experimenting with self-flying planes. In addition to self-flying planes, we will likely see an increase in the usage of drones. Corporations like Amazon are already using drones to deliver products to the homes of customers, and there is no reason (other than federal law) that this experimentation should cease. I find it unlikely that in the future companies will use drones to carry packages long distance; more likely, drones will see widespread usage to deliver packages locally from distribution centers to nearby homes. In conclusion, while airplanes will likely not change much aesthetically, the most noticeable change in aircraft will come through the use of drones.

 

The Future of Ocean Shipments:

 

While the most important development in the world of cargo shipping in the last 100 years was the advent of the container, there are new headways being made that could rival this innovation. Technologies are now being tested that would allow ships to be piloted remotely. These technologies would allow ships to be piloted more efficiently, reducing costs and emissions. Led by the effort to lower pollution levels, many technology companies are looking to innovations like this that will help protect the environment. Most of today’s cargo ships have been in service for decades, and are incredibly inefficient. By incorporating new technologies in the coming generation of cargo ships, companies can hope to reduce the use of gas-guzzling ships. Remote-controlled tugboats would especially useful because of the possibility of having narrow, difficult passages be operated by computers, thus removing the possibility of human error. This would reduce the likelihood of accidents like the Exxon-Valdez, which ran aground in Alaska and caused a tremendous oil spill.

 

The Future of Motor-Transport:

 

The latest developments in the realm of motor-transport is the testing of self-driving trucks. Companies like Volvo and (most famously) Tesla have been experimenting with the technology in recent years. The technology is developing so rapidly that the Los Angeles Times predicted that within the next ten years approximately 1.7 million jobs could be lost because of self-driving trucks. This new technology, however, will have to overcome a few key obstacles before it becomes widespread.  First off, while self-driving vehicles are allowed in many states, as they become more popular, the federal government will eventually step in. While the House has already passed a bill that lifted many restrictions on self-driving cars, the Senate has yet to act. Additionally, the laws that have been passed deal only with self-driving cars, not tractor trailers. Secondly, tractor trailers are incredibly difficult to operate and require a skilled driver to operate them. Because of this, self-driving trucks will need a human operator to sit in the cab (at least initially). This limits the effectiveness of the technology, as companies will still have to hire an operator for each truck. However, the technology will allow trucks to travel longer distances and for longer periods of time, as they will not be restricted by hour and mile limits set on human drivers. Many elements of automation are already in use by modern cars and trucks. Technologies such as lane assist, stability controls, collision warnings, and auto-braking are all in place now to help drivers avoid accidents.

 

In conclusion, the future of transportation will likely look very different than the present day. Automation will be prevalent in every method of transit, which will lower shipping costs, times, and pollution amounts. These decreases should lead to lower prices for consumers as companies compete with one another. However, the high amount of automation will also likely lead to large-scale layoffs, with many workers losing their jobs to machines. This could have negative effects on society as many former taxpayers will be in need of government assistance. Automated transit has its pros and cons, and it will be interesting to see where the future takes this technology.

 

While we have previously focused on automation in manufacturing, we will now shift our focus to the increased automation in transportation. Although I have briefly talked about changes in transportation before, I will now delve into the history of each of the main methods of cargo transportation.

 

A Brief History:

 

Humans have had a need to move goods for as long as there has been civilized society. In the earliest days of civilization, goods were carried on land, using pack animals. In approximately 3500 B.C., the wheel was invented in Iraq. This was perhaps the most important innovation in the history of mankind, and it greatly revolutionized transportation and travel. Whereas before traders were limited to whatever an animal could carry for a small distance, with the wheel, they were now able to transport a much larger quantity of goods over a much larger distance. Although not technically a form of “automation”, the wheel, for obvious reasons, is extremely important to mention when discussing transportation. Centuries later, engines would be added to vehicles with wheels, and the automobile would be born. Usage of trucks quickly became one of the most common forms of cargo transportation, as they are cheap, quick, and able to go to places where there may not be access to an airport or port.

 

While the majority of early transportation was done on land, and water travel very restricted, in 3100 B.C. the Egyptians invented the first sailing boat. With this technology, goods were now able to be moved across previously impassable bodies of water. This opened up trade routes between Northern Africa and Mediterranean Europe, for example. As time went on, shipping technology improved, with each ship’s speed and range increasing over the centuries. Eventually, advances in shipping technology allowed for the discovery of the New World and the Colombian Exchange in later centuries. While early ships were dependent on the wind for power, steam and coal engines allowed ships to sail under their own power. This greatly improved their speed, as they could now move under their own power. As the years went by, ships increased in size and capability, but the most important innovation in shipping was the container system. Utilized by the U.S. military during the Korean War, the container system drastically cut costs and made unloading much faster. This is why shipping today plays a large role in the world economy, as it is the cheapest form of mass transportation and is a relatively fast way to move large quantities of goods between continents.

 

Perhaps the technology most important to the growth of the United States in the 19th century was the railroad. Developed in Great Britain, the railroad gained prominence as a form of transportation in the U.S in the 1830’s. The railroad was much cheaper than the canal (the primary form of inland transportation up until that point), cutting transportation costs by anywhere from 60-70%. Railroads eventually sprung up all throughout the country, and the North’s superior railroad system that made transportation of man and materiel quick and easy is credited with playing a large part in the Federal victory in the Civil War (along with their superior manufacturing capabilities).

The Transcontinental Railroad, completed in the 1860’s, was one of the most important steps in unifying the two coasts of the United States. Today, railroads are still used to transport large quantities of goods, although they have largely fallen out of favor with passengers due to high costs and unreliability.

 

Even in the earliest days of aviation, companies looked to use airplanes to move goods quickly. It was not until after the Second World War that the first commercial transport airlines emerged, however. Air transport was largely an afterthought until Federal Express catapulted the technology , and its related system, to new heights. By combining cargo shipments with existing cargo routes, FedEx was able to drastically reduce the cost of their shipments and offer services like guaranteed next day shipping, which in the 1970’s was a very novel concept. In its first 10 years, the company reported profits in excess of $1 billion, an amount unheard of for such a young company. Today, the vast majority of air cargo is carried by freight services such as FedEx, UPS, and the United States Postal Service, who all utilize systems similar to the one developed by FedEx.  Many major passenger airlines also offer a cargo division that companies can use to ship freight as well.

 

In the modern era, both trucks, container ships, and cargo planes play a large role in the movement of freight. Technology is increasingly advancing, and companies like Tesla are now testing automated 18-wheelers. Whether or not these technologies will be successful remains to be seen. Who knows what other methods of transportation will arise as companies seek to lower their bottom line and increase profits.