In this week’s blog, we will take a turn from exploring automation and different forms of manufacturing and transportation and will instead look at U.S. foreign policy regarding trade and U.S. economic policy. This will help shape our understanding of how manufacturing and transportation will evolve. Our country has a long history of a free and open trade policy, but with the current presidential administration, we may see more protectionist policies become the norm.

A History of U.S. Trade Policy:

Willis Hawley and Reed Smoot

Prior to the Civil War, the United States was divided when it came to economic policy. The Northern states favored a more restrictive policy that would allow its manufacturing to grow and develop, while the Southern states favored a more open policy that would allow their cotton industry to sell its products to other nations. After the North’s victory in the Civil War, the United States naturally adopted the more restrictive policy, which ultimately led to the passing of the Smoot-Hawley Act in 1930. A direct response to public anger at the 1929 stock market crash, the law increased existing tariffs by an average of 20 percent. The resulting drop in trade with Europe and around the globe caused president Franklin D. Roosevelt to sign the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act in 1934, which reduced tariffs, increased liberalization, and promoted freer trade. After the Second World War, when the United States emerged as one of the two world superpowers, the need for a more open economy that was accessible to all increased. The resulting General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, or GATT, liberalized the world’s economy by ensuring lower tariffs across the Western World. Because of this agreement, the average American tariff fell from roughly 60 percent in the days of the Smoot-Hawley Act to just under 6 percent in the 1980s. This more open economy played a large role in the United State’s victory over the Soviet Union at the end of the 20th Century. Since the Soviet Union was largely closed off to the rest of the world (the majority of its trade came from its allies and satellite nations, and a majority of goods were manufactured domestically), it was ultimately unable to keep up with the increased defense spending of the United States. Their attempt to do so resulted in their economy crumbling and their nation imploding. This, in the minds of many Americans, validated their economic system as superior.

In the period immediately following the Cold War, the United States was the world’s only true global superpower. While she would later be challenged by China (and later a new Russia), for the rest of the 20th century it was the United States that largely had control of the world, culturally, militarily, and economically.  As the Soviet Union showed signs of weakness in the 1980’s, the United States signed multiple free-trade agreements. After the completion of a free-trade agreement between the United States and her northern neighbor Canada was signed in 1988, Mexico sought an agreement of their own. The resulting trade deal came to be known as NAFTA, or the North American Free Trade Agreement. This deal was not popular in large swaths of the heartland of the United States, as lower wages in Mexico meant that American companies could outsource manufacturing to Mexico, leaving millions of American workers without jobs. This trade deal (signed into law by president Bill Clinton), it could be argued, sowed the seed for Donald Trump’s election as president in the 2016 campaign. In 1995, the World Trade Organization, or WTO, was established. This transformed the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade by offering a concrete, binding set of rules that member countries must follow. The organization serves a number of roles, including providing a world economic forum, resolving trade disputes, working with other trade organizations to facilitate agreements, and helping developing countries reap the benefits of participation in the world economy. This organization has been criticized for its lack of democracy and the fact that it vaguely resembles a world government.

The Future of American Trade Policy:

With current United States President Donald Trump running on a message of protectionism, it appears likely that the U.S. will adopt policies that fit his ideology. For example, he threatened to withdraw from NAFTA numerous times before ultimately re-working the deal with Mexico and Canada in February. I believe that we will see more changes like this for the remainder of his time in office. It appears to me that it is unlikely that any major changes will be instituted (although he did withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership earlier in his term). I believe the majority of what he will do for the remainder of his time in office is simply rework existing deals so that they benefit his base (the blue-collar worker) and give him something to run on in 2020.

In last week’s blog, we examined the history of transportation in the context of cargo shipping. In this week’s blog, I am going to analyze the future of many different forms of transportation, and make predictions as to what will happen to cargo shipping in the decades to come.

The Future of Air Shipments:

While it is unlikely that any obvious major changes will occur to the design of airplanes themselves, it is likely that changes that make aircraft more efficient will occur. As companies are always seeking to lower transportation costs, planes will likely get faster and become more fuel efficient in the future. Air travel remains one of the most popular forms of shipping cargo, because it is fast, efficient, reliable, and cheap. Because of this, it is estimated that air travel will increase by 3% every year for the next decade. One example of a major change that could occur, however, is the advent of autonomous planes. While this technology is far away, many airplane manufacturers are experimenting with self-flying planes. In addition to self-flying planes, we will likely see an increase in the usage of drones. Corporations like Amazon are already using drones to deliver products to the homes of customers, and there is no reason (other than federal law) that this experimentation should cease. I find it unlikely that in the future companies will use drones to carry packages long distance; more likely, drones will see widespread usage to deliver packages locally from distribution centers to nearby homes. In conclusion, while airplanes will likely not change much aesthetically, the most noticeable change in aircraft will come through the use of drones.

The Future of Ocean Shipments:

While the most important development in the world of cargo shipping in the last 100 years was the advent of the container, there are new headways being made that could rival this innovation. Technologies are now being tested that would allow ships to be piloted remotely. These technologies would allow ships to be piloted more efficiently, reducing costs and emissions. Led by the effort to lower pollution levels, many technology companies are looking to innovations like this that will help protect the environment. Most of today’s cargo ships have been in service for decades, and are incredibly inefficient. By incorporating new technologies in the coming generation of cargo ships, companies can hope to reduce the use of gas-guzzling ships. Remote-controlled tugboats would especially useful because of the possibility of having narrow, difficult passages be operated by computers, thus removing the possibility of human error. This would reduce the likelihood of accidents like the Exxon-Valdez, which ran aground in Alaska and caused a tremendous oil spill.

The Future of Motor-Transport:

The latest developments in the realm of motor-transport is the testing of self-driving trucks. Companies like Volvo and (most famously) Tesla have been experimenting with the technology in recent years. The technology is developing so rapidly that the Los Angeles Times predicted that within the next ten years approximately 1.7 million jobs could be lost because of self-driving trucks. This new technology, however, will have to overcome a few key obstacles before it becomes widespread.  First off, while self-driving vehicles are allowed in many states, as they become more popular, the federal government will eventually step in. While the House has already passed a bill that lifted many restrictions on self-driving cars, the Senate has yet to act. Additionally, the laws that have been passed deal only with self-driving cars, not tractor trailers. Secondly, tractor trailers are incredibly difficult to operate and require a skilled driver to operate them. Because of this, self-driving trucks will need a human operator to sit in the cab (at least initially). This limits the effectiveness of the technology, as companies will still have to hire an operator for each truck. However, the technology will allow trucks to travel longer distances and for longer periods of time, as they will not be restricted by hour and mile limits set on human drivers. Many elements of automation are already in use by modern cars and trucks. Technologies such as lane assist, stability controls, collision warnings, and auto-braking are all in place now to help drivers avoid accidents.

In conclusion, the future of transportation will likely look very different than the present day. Automation will be prevalent in every method of transit, which will lower shipping costs, times, and pollution amounts. These decreases should lead to lower prices for consumers as companies compete with one another. However, the high amount of automation will also likely lead to large-scale layoffs, with many workers losing their jobs to machines. This could have negative effects on society as many former taxpayers will be in need of government assistance. Automated transit has its pros and cons, and it will be interesting to see where the future takes this technology.

While we have previously focused on automation in manufacturing, we will now shift our focus to the increased automation in transportation. Although I have briefly talked about changes in transportation before, I will now delve into the history of each of the main methods of cargo transportation.

A Brief History:

Humans have had a need to move goods for as long as there has been civilized society. In the earliest days of civilization, goods were carried on land, using pack animals. In approximately 3500 B.C., the wheel was invented in Iraq. This was perhaps the most important innovation in the history of mankind, and it greatly revolutionized transportation and travel. Whereas before traders were limited to whatever an animal could carry for a small distance, with the wheel, they were now able to transport a much larger quantity of goods over a much larger distance. Although not technically a form of “automation”, the wheel, for obvious reasons, is extremely important to mention when discussing transportation. Centuries later, engines would be added to vehicles with wheels, and the automobile would be born. Usage of trucks quickly became one of the most common forms of cargo transportation, as they are cheap, quick, and able to go to places where there may not be access to an airport or port.

While the majority of early transportation was done on land, and water travel very restricted, in 3100 B.C. the Egyptians invented the first sailing boat. With this technology, goods were now able to be moved across previously impassable bodies of water. This opened up trade routes between Northern Africa and Mediterranean Europe, for example. As time went on, shipping technology improved, with each ship’s speed and range increasing over the centuries. Eventually, advances in shipping technology allowed for the discovery of the New World and the Colombian Exchange in later centuries. While early ships were dependent on the wind for power, steam and coal engines allowed ships to sail under their own power. This greatly improved their speed, as they could now move under their own power. As the years went by, ships increased in size and capability, but the most important innovation in shipping was the container system. Utilized by the U.S. military during the Korean War, the container system drastically cut costs and made unloading much faster. This is why shipping today plays a large role in the world economy, as it is the cheapest form of mass transportation and is a relatively fast way to move large quantities of goods between continents.

Perhaps the technology most important to the growth of the United States in the 19th century was the railroad. Developed in Great Britain, the railroad gained prominence as a form of transportation in the U.S in the 1830’s. The railroad was much cheaper than the canal (the primary form of inland transportation up until that point), cutting transportation costs by anywhere from 60-70%. Railroads eventually sprung up all throughout the country, and the North’s superior railroad system that made transportation of man and materiel quick and easy is credited with playing a large part in the Federal victory in the Civil War (along with their superior manufacturing capabilities).

The Transcontinental Railroad, completed in the 1860’s, was one of the most important steps in unifying the two coasts of the United States. Today, railroads are still used to transport large quantities of goods, although they have largely fallen out of favor with passengers due to high costs and unreliability.

Even in the earliest days of aviation, companies looked to use airplanes to move goods quickly. It was not until after the Second World War that the first commercial transport airlines emerged, however. Air transport was largely an afterthought until Federal Express catapulted the technology , and its related system, to new heights. By combining cargo shipments with existing cargo routes, FedEx was able to drastically reduce the cost of their shipments and offer services like guaranteed next day shipping, which in the 1970’s was a very novel concept. In its first 10 years, the company reported profits in excess of $1 billion, an amount unheard of for such a young company. Today, the vast majority of air cargo is carried by freight services such as FedEx, UPS, and the United States Postal Service, who all utilize systems similar to the one developed by FedEx.  Many major passenger airlines also offer a cargo division that companies can use to ship freight as well.

In the modern era, both trucks, container ships, and cargo planes play a large role in the movement of freight. Technology is increasingly advancing, and companies like Tesla are now testing automated 18-wheelers. Whether or not these technologies will be successful remains to be seen. Who knows what other methods of transportation will arise as companies seek to lower their bottom line and increase profits.

In this week’s blog, I will look at the future of automation in manufacturing. In previous blogs, I wrote about the positive and negative aspects of automation in manufacturing, and I explored the history of automation as well. Given that these cover nearly all bases of the issue, it is now time to look into where manufacturing is headed in the future.

Automation, for better or for worse, has been something companies have embraced for as long as there have been companies in business. Firms are always looking to stay on the cutting edge of technology, allowing them to stay a step ahead of their competition. Things like the assembly line were introduced and widely copied, and robots have become increasingly common in factories across the world. Keeping with this trend, companies embrace the latest technological advancements if they help their bottom line.

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE:

Artificial intelligence, or A.I., is the latest technological advancement to be utilized by large corporations. A.I. was first conceptualized in the 1950s by British mathematician Alan Turing who reasoned that machines could “think” in the same way humans do, utilizing both available information as well as reason. Unfortunately, Turing was unable to prove his hypothesis, as computers of his time were extremely large, slow, expensive, and incapable of performing the complex calculations performed by today’s artificial intelligence. Later on, however, A.I. technology began to flourish. As computers improved, A.I. improved with them. A.I. technology still faced setbacks until the 1990s, when A.I. had significantly improved, to the point where an IBM computer defeated a reigning world chess champion and grandmaster. Today, A.I. is seen nearly everywhere- in phones, computers, robots, watches, and even cars. Many companies are now testing driverless cars that rely solely on artificial intelligence to navigate busy city streets.

This is all well and good, but what does this increase in artificial intelligence capabilities mean for companies? In short, it means that companies are now utilizing technology in unprecedented ways. Whereas before most technological advances were advances in the machines that human workers used to complete tasks, companies are now bypassing the human element and utilizing only machines. Not only is this occurring in the United States, but it is happening in places that one would not expect A.I. to take hold. In countries like India and China (countries traditionally associated with low wages and poor working/living conditions), companies have begun to invest in artificial intelligence as living standards age wages have begun to increase. This technology is still fairly new, but its rapid growth means that it will soon be the norm, rather than the exception, on factory floors.

What kinds of results will companies see if they embrace artificial intelligence? For starters, they will have to pay large sums of money to purchase the equipment. They will phase out some of their employees, however, saving them money in the long run. For workers whose jobs are not lost, the workplace will become much safer. The use of artificial intelligence eliminates the possibility of human error, as machines can be programmed to perform specific task. New artificial intelligence can also be programmed to sense danger and the “think” on its feet, which had been previously unimaginable. For example, many roles traditionally filled by human workers, such as forklift drivers, can now be filled with smart, self-driving forklifts that make moving goods around much more efficient and therefore much cheaper. Much of this is still speculative, however, as many present-day robots are apt to crash into things, fall over, or wander off due to technological or mechanical failure.

While robots and A.I. have great use on factory floors, they also have shown enormous potential in the transportation industry. Many traditional means of transporting freight (truck, train, plane, and ship) already utilize some artificial intelligence. Modern planes use the technology in their cockpits and have for years, and some docks use artificial intelligence to help load, unload, and sort the vast quantity of cargo that comes off of the average commercial ship. Many companies are also experimenting with self-driving trucks. While the technology is still in its infancy, the idea of self-driving trucks is truly revolutionary; no longer will trucks be limited by the number of miles or hours a human driver can drive in a day. Freight will be able to get to its destination much quicker and cheaper than before.

In conclusion, new technologies like artificial intelligence are quickly grasping hold of the manufacturing industry. These technologies have numerous benefits for companies that adopt them- most importantly, they save the company money and increase production capabilities. While the technology still has a long way to progress before it is seen in every factory, it is undoubtedly the way of the future, and corporations will likely have to adapt artificial intelligence or risk being left behind.

This week, we will examine the cons of increased levels of automation in manufacturing. While the benefits of increasing automation may be fairly evident, the costs of increasing manufacturing are much less evident and more nuanced. While the benefits are largely economic, the costs are primarily social in nature. Many people do not consider them when thinking of the effects of increased manufacturing and improved technology, but I will attempt to explore them in more detail here.

The first (and perhaps the most obvious) cost of automation is the loss of jobs that stems from the usage of more robots. As companies begin to utilize technology that eliminates the need for large quantities of workers, those workers are often let go. Because many factories are located in small towns in the middle of “flyover country”, there are often little opportunities outside of jobs in the manufacturing industry. This means that those who are laid off are largely unable to find work once their jobs are terminated. As a result, many of these workers are unable to provide for their families. They then become reliant on the social safety net, which becomes a large drain on the system as more and more unemployed workers rely on it. With many of the programs already under tremendous financial strain and their sustainability in question, more people utilizing them increases this strain exponentially. This also means that the nuclear family is placed under tremendous stress. In the traditional family, one or both parents worked to provide the family with the things they need. This dynamic helped ensure that parents avoided having children out of wedlock (it was impractical to expect both parents to provide for a child without the bond of marriage), waited to have children until they were in a position to financially support them, and that fathers remained in the picture. By having the state take over the traditional role of the father, it is no longer “necessary” for fathers to remain in the picture- the state will provide what they will not. By removing the father, children lose someone who traditionally helped guide and teach them, and mothers are then force to bear the full cost of parenthood by themselves. The greatest effect of this is on young boys, who lose a father figure and thus become more susceptible to lives of drugs, crime, and violence. This effect is in full display in small towns, where the lack of opportunity talked about earlier help many young men spiral further and further down the wrong path.

A second effect of this loss of jobs is that when people are out of work things like crime and drug use increase. The closing of factories in small towns could be one of the primary reasons the opioid epidemic has become such a massive problem in rural America (excluding, of course, the widespread availability of these drugs). The increase in opioid usage (and subsequent drug-related deaths) has coincided with the closing of many factories. Additionally, when large groups of young men who previously worked in factories find themselves out of work, many turn to lives of crime, similar to those who grow up without fathers. This has a detrimental effect on small towns, who now find themselves racked with levels of crime they had previously thought unheard of. Also, for the younger generations, there is an obvious lack of opportunity in their hometowns, which prompts many of the best and brightest young students to move away in search of opportunities, resulting what has been dubbed a “brain drain”. With the most promising young people leaving rural areas, they are doomed to be left in the dust as the rest of the country develops and advances.

As you can see, the majority of negatives of increased automation are social ones. There are a few economic costs, however. While automation can lead to an increase in corporate profits, there has been no coinciding increase in median wage, meaning that the average worker (whose job is not lost to a machine) has not seen any noticeable wage growth, despite his employer’s increasing profits. Although briefly alluded to earlier, automation can also increase economic inequality as workers get laid off. Those who are no longer capable of making the purchases they could when they were employed are no longer consumers, which hurts business on a macro level. Even though firms are producing more goods by utilizing machinery, they are losing some customers by phasing out their employees through the use of those very machines.

In conclusion, there are a number of costs associated with an increase in automation. While the majority are social costs, some are economic. Given the current Administration’s economic policies, it will be interesting to see what equilibrium can be found for automation and what the future holds for American manufacturing.

In this week’s blog, I will examine the advantages of increasing automation in manufacturing. I will look at the many positive aspects of technological advancement, and analyze them and what they mean for American society and culture.

Perhaps the most important advantage of increasing automation is that it allows American companies to remain competitive in a global marketplace. In an economy where it is often much cheaper to produce goods overseas, where labor laws are more relaxed and the wages much lower, machines can offer American corporations the opportunity to keep production in the United States and still remain competitive. This also means that smaller American companies can also compete with larger ones, as they are able to lower production costs through efficient use of machines and the hiring of fewer workers. The increased productivity that comes with the use of robots and other machines further helps smaller (and American) companies compete and thrive. By maintaining a strong American economic presence, the United States and ensure that it remains a global power and can leverage that economic force should the need arise.

A second advantage of increasing automation is workplace safety. By letting machines and robots do dangerous jobs instead of having human workers do them, we can decrease workplace fatalities. This can not only save lives, it can save the company money. According to the U.S. Department of Labor’s Occupational Safety and Health Administration, American businesses spend approximately $170 billion per year on workplace injuries and illnesses. They also estimate that by improving safety procedures, through means such as automation, they can reduce these costs by 20-40%. This money could be spent on increased worker benefits or, more likely, on improvements within the company that would further their production capabilities and help increase efficiency. As companies grow in scope and capability, they produce and sell more goods, which helps the economy grow and helps the United States maintain power on a global scale.

In an aspect that is often not considered, robots and machines can help to save factory floor space. While this may seem trivial, the effects of it can be profound. As property values increase, it becomes more and more expensive to physically enlarge production capabilities in areas with high property costs. This can result in companies deciding not to grow or move overseas to achieve their goals, both of which hurt the United States economy. When companies are able to conserve floor space through use of robots and machines, they can reduce the need to buy more land or head overseas. The better utilization of floor space also can improve production times, as it increases efficiency and safety.

We now understand how automation in manufacturing can help the United States, but what is the impact of these advancements? What do they mean for the average person, who does not work a factory? The answer is that increasing manufacturing has numerous benefits for the average citizen, even if they may not be apparent at first glance.

Perhaps the most important impact, while previously mentioned, is that increasing automation can help to stabilize American companies that are in danger of failing. This has a number of positive effects: it allows American-owned businesses to stay in business, it allows these same companies to stay domestic (which means those jobs stay domestic as well), and (most evidently for the average consumer) lower prices for goods. By allowing American-owned businesses to stay open, the average consumer has the opportunity to buy goods from a company that they know supports American industry. This gives the American-owned businesses an edge their competitors do not have. Domestic manufacturing is important because it gives the United States autonomy, which means that the US is not dependent on any country for their manufacturing needs in a given industry. The most extreme example of this would be in the event of a war with a nation like China (who the United States relies on for much of her manufacturing). If the US is using weapons and technology that are produced in China, not only do they have the secrets of the technologies, they are also able to cease trade and strangle us economically. The most important aspect of increased manufacturing, however, is the lower prices consumer will see. When prices are low, consumers buy more goods. When they purchase more, businesses sell more and in turn are able to grow. As the businesses grow, they build more factories, which bring with them more jobs.

This all can help the American culture by contributing to the prosperity that all Americans try to achieve. By creating an economy with more domestic factories, we can create more jobs to help Americans achieve the American dream. This will result in a better, safer society, where many Americans are given the chance to succeed.

For the first blog of this series (excluding the overview blog), I will delve into the history of manufacturing and of the technology associated with it. The rest of the blog series will further examine the individual pros and cons of increased automation in the American manufacturing industry.

Beginning of Manufacturing:

In the years prior to the industrial revolution, manufacturing consisted largely of artisans and very small factories hand producing goods. Most people worked at home, save for a few artisans and specialists. Manufacturing was a long, tedious, and expensive process that meant that very few (with the exception of the wealthy) could afford products that were produced outside of the home. Factories that did operate were largely dependent on wind and water for power, making them largely unpredictable and, in the case of water-powered factories, required to be located near a source of moving water.

Industrial Revolution:

The industrial revolution saw the advent of the first major manufacturing technologies. The steam engine, invented in 1760, allowed factories to have a reliable source of power that did not require them to be near a source of water or wind. The steam engine also allowed for the advent of advances in transportation, as the engine could be used to power newly-invented steam locomotives as well as ships. This new technology made shipping goods much cheaper and helped further advances in technology by increasing global demand for manufactured goods. Other advances in machinery allowed for more uniformity in manufactured goods. This uniformity meant goods could be made with interchangeable parts, a concept that had been largely unimaginable when goods were produced by local artisans. This uniformity is evident in the case of the American Civil War. The North, with manufacturing capabilities far superior than the South, was able to mass produce war goods (rifles, pistols, cannon, e.t.c.) with interchangeable parts. When Northern armies needed to repair or replace broken weapons, they were able to do so much more easily than their Southern counterparts, who oftentimes fought with whatever hodgepodge of weapons they could obtain. The Union’s superior manufacturing capability is one of the most important reasons that they won the war.

Post-Industrial Manufacturing:

In the years after the “industrial revolution”, manufacturing technology continued to advance. The most important development in the technology came not from a new machine, however, but from a new manufacturing concept- the assembly line. In 1908, Henry Ford became the first to successfully utilize the assembly line on a large scale. Due to his innovation, the Ford Motor Corporation was able to produce roughly 15 million cars in the years between 1908 and 1927. Ford did this by specialization. Whereas before one worker (or group of workers) was responsible for producing large segments of a car, as part of the assembly line they would focus on one menial task, thus rapidly increasing production speed, lowering production costs, and virtually eliminating the need for skilled workers in Ford’s factories. Ford, to his credit, however, paid his employees enough that they too could afford the cars they were manufacturing. Ford’s assembly line system was quickly adopted by nearly all American manufacturing companies. This technology made manufactured goods much cheaper and thus affordable for the average person; who now had a job working in a factory. The advent of cheaper automobiles, aircraft, stoves, refrigerators, and other appliances greatly improved the life of the average citizen. American manufacturing’s ability to churn out a high volume of products while still maintaining quality and interchangeability was a large reason why the Allies won the Second World War- we were simply able to outproduce the Axis powers (Germany, at least initially, arguably had better technology, as evidenced by the V- series rockets and jet propelled planes, but was unable to keep up with the manufacturing demands of fighting a two-front war).

Automation:

While the earliest robots used in manufacturing were designed in the 1930’s, the first robot to be used by a major manufacturer was not utilized until the 1960’s. In 1962, General Motors began using the UNIMATE robot in 1962. Robotics was still in its infancy by then, as it was not until the 1980’s that the technology began to truly take hold. In 1981, Takeo Kanade created the first robotic arm with motors in the joints. This technology saw widespread use, much of which we still see in factories today. The brunt of manufacturing today stems from this technology. It is through the invention of such robotics that Japanese corporations rose to global prominence in the 1980’s and 1990’s. Companies like Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi, and Yamaha are all some of the most popular and reliable manufacturers because of their embrace of manufacturing technology. American corporations have tried to keep up with their Japanese counterparts, but many decide to outsource their manufacturing, rather than keep is domestic as the Japanese have done.

Robots working in a factory

With increasing advancements in manufacturing technology, many jobs that were previously done by hand are now being done by robots and other machines. While this can reduce costs and help keep corporations competitive in an ever-changing marketplace, there are numerous social costs that must be considered when examining these technological advancements. In this blog post, I will seek to examine the social costs, both positive and negative, that are associated with increased automation in manufacturing technology.

Background:

The first example of modern automation in manufacturing is the Ford Motor Company’s usage of the assembly line beginning in 1913. Henry Ford, while not the first to utilize this more efficient system, was the first to use it effectively on a large scale. Prior to the advent of the assembly line in manufacturing, building a car was a long, expensive, and arduous process that resulted in automobile ownership being reserved for only the wealthiest Americans. Once Ford implemented the assembly line, however, production time per car went down from about 12 hours per car to one and a half hours per car. This resulted in a dramatic decline in prices and an increase in affordability, making car ownership much more widespread than it previously had been.

In the decades prior to the Second World War, the Japanese manufacturing industry developed some of the best manufacturing techniques in the world. For example, Japanese companies were among the first to develop micro-switches, protective relays, and accurate electrical timers. These advanced techniques allowed Japanese manufacturing to keep up with the much superior capabilities of American industry for a long period of time over the course of World War II. After the war and subsequent rebuild, these processes allowed the Japanese to dominate the world marketplace in automobile manufacturing and smart technology.

Pros:

The pros of modern automation in manufacturing are fairly evident. Nations that embrace changes in technology are able to stay at the forefront of commerce and maintain an edge over their competitors, which will help to ensure that the United States does not lose its position at the top of the global economy.  This can lead to a better quality of life as a result of a higher GDP and a more advanced economy. Production costs will be lower, which will in turn drive down prices and increase the per capita purchasing power of each citizen. With this increase in purchasing power, consumers will spend more money on goods and services. The increase in automation also means that some corporations will elect to keep factories in the United States, as the advanced infrastructure, coupled with the decrease in employees needed per factory, will allow them to have production costs that rival those of factories in the third world. If the United States can keep the bulk of its manufacturing capabilities domestic (whether through automation or other means), we will ensure that we are not dependent on other nations (China) for our military equipment in the event of war.

An abandoned factory

Cons:

The cons of these technologies are much more nuanced. While some factories may stay in the United States, those that do will no longer need as many employees as they once did, which will lead to massive layoffs and unemployment. These workers, many of whom come from small towns whose only source of employment was a factory that had provided jobs for generations, will not find themselves out of a job. Many of these workers lack higher education or other skills that make a job search easier, so they are forced onto government welfare programs such as unemployment (for many, simply moving to a larger city or other part of the country is not feasible). This presents a large drain on the American taxpayer, as many of these people had previously been taxpaying citizens themselves prior to their terminations. With an increase in unemployment, many small towns will see an increase in crime, gang activity, and drug use, decreasing the quality of life for all citizens. This makes towns that had once been fairly prosperous virtually unrecognizable after only a few generations. The lack of opportunity also is evident in increased rates of single motherhood (as the state assumes the role traditionally taken by the father), which can start a vicious cycle of poverty and crime when the state replaces the nuclear family.

What to do:

This is a complex issue, with both sides of the argument presenting very compelling points. I believe that it is important to protect American industry (if only to ensure complete independence from other nations in the event of a war) in a way that safeguards American workers and the American social fabric. I believe that American industrial manufacturing companies should do their utmost to try to stay domestic, ensuring the protection of the American worker while simultaneously advancing the American economy into the 21^st century.