2016 Elections

I love election years. What is more partisan and exciting than an election? Candidate of both parties fight to prove who is right, who is better. The parties strive to divide the population into two distinct groups. With the 2016 election approaching, more and more candidates are announcing their intentions to run. So far, only a few Republicans have announced their candidacy, however I think it would interesting to take a look at the candidates through the lense of their views and the relative levels of support they have from their parties.

Ted Cruz was the first Republican to announce his candidacy for President. He is a Republican who follows the hard party line and sticks to the conservative values Republicans are known for. He is fiscally and socially conservative, and hopes to attract the traditional conservative base with his platform. However, Cruz also hopes to extend his campaign to include “dominating the tea party faction and competing for the libertarian base” (Source). His partisan support will, hopefully, come from the more conservative Republicans, and the more “liberal” Republicans in the form of Libertarians. He will have to compete with Rand Paul for the support of Libertarians in the primaries, and how he intends to do so is unknown to me. If he wins the nomination, however, he will have an easier time simply winning the Libertarian vote away from the Democrats.

Ted Cruz’s campaign appeals to liberal and conservative ends of conservatism by calling for the abolition of the IRS. He also appeals slightly more to Libertarians by calling out NSA spying. Cruz is especially trying to appeal to Evangelical voters, for example he prayed with a supporter after a campaign event recently. Cruz has also publicly supported the “Religious Freedom” law in Indiana (don’t even get me started), drawing the support of many conservatives. If I had to guess (translation: this is my loosely informed opinion which means nothing), I think Cruz currently has more establishment Republican support than the other candidate at the moment, Rand Paul. However, I have no idea who will draw Republican support once more candidates announce.

 Rand Paul also very recently announced his candidacy, officially doing so on Tuesday. Paul is a Republican, but his views could really be best described as Libertarian. He takes a more liberal stance than hard-line Republicans on a variety of issues. For example, Rand advocates “reducing federal drug penalties, clamping down on the nation’s intelligence agencies and taking a more deliberative approach to military intervention” (Source). However, he does not take the typical liberal social views of establishment Libertarianism. Overall, Paul expresses a “dogged advocacy of civil liberties combined with an anti-interventionist foreign policy and general support for family values” (Source). This means Paul takes the conservative, Republican line on social issues such as gay marriage (against it) and abortion (against it). He’s Republican, but not. I honestly wish he would take liberal social views, as I feel the American public could benefit from having a truly Libertarian, fiscally conservative and socially liberal, candidate in the election, but that’s just me.

Now the question is, does Rand Paul have enough support to win? The answer is maybe, but probably not. He is running as a Republican, and will come under fire for his more liberal views, such as view that America needs to be more careful in it’s engagements abroad. This could be seen as, and argued to be, undermining to national security. Paul knows he may have trouble gathering support, leading to his campaigns over the past few years to gain support from “nontraditional bases”, such as African American voters and college students in California. Paul has been “focusing on criminal justice reform and civil liberties, two issues he believes can bring more people into the Republican Party” (Source). Paul is going to need to attract those voters, as he is most likely going to alienate hard-line Republicans, especially with his foreign policy views. As Republicans will struggle to see Paul as a true member of their party, Democrats are going to portray Paul as a true Republican, unworthy of liberal support. The parties will both paint different pictures of Paul, which I find very interesting. Support, or more accurately, opposition, will be divided on party lines, with neither party having true, full support for him.

With the primaries quickly approaching, many more candidates are expected to announces their candidacies soon. Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Scott Walker, Lindsey Graham, and Marco Rubio are all expected to announce. Who do you hope runs? Who do you think will draw the support of establishment Republicans? Do you think Rand Paul has a chance of winning the primary? The Presidency? Let me know!