People often look for order when random events occur. They want an explanation when something occurs and often make assumptions about the causation based on insufficient data. This phenomenon is called illusory correlation. Illusory correlation is the perception that two variables have a strong relationship even though no such relationship exists. Superstitions are a common example of illusory correlation. Many sports fans believe that they must wear the same jersey every time their favorite team plays in order for that team to win. Does wearing the same jersey really make the team win? No, it is just a coincidence that their team happened to win when they were wearing the jersey. This belief that the jersey made their team win was based upon insufficient data and therefore is an illusory correlation. There was no evidence to support that the jersey was what made the team win.
Correlation and causation are not the same thing. The picture above shows a graph of the divorce rate in Maine and per capita consumption of margarine. There is a strong correlation between the two variables, however there is no relationship between them. No plausible explanation as to why the divorce rate in Maine decreases as the per capita consumption of margarine increases exists.
Illusory correlation is also seen in everyday life. Stereotyping is one of the most prevalent examples of illusory correlation. Stereotyping is making assumptions about an individual based on what group they are associated with. People judge others based on insufficient data. They believe that just because one member of certain group acts a certain way then everyone in that group acts the same way. It might seem that everyone in a certain group acst one way but there is no way to tell if an individual only acts that way because they are apart of the said group. There is no proof of causation between the two variables.
When I was in high school I played soccer. Before one of our games against one of the harder teams in the league my pre-wrap that I was using as a headband broke. I didn’t have any extra on me so I asked one of my teammates to use some of theirs. It was a different color than what I normally used but I didn’t really care at the time. We ended up winning the game which meant we qualified for playoffs. I, for some reason, thought the pre-wrap had something to do with us winning. So before every game I would ask my teammate for pre-wrap in hopes that we would win every game. The “superstition” worked for most of the season but eventually we ended up losing.
The belief that the pre-wrap was what made my team win games was an example of illusory correlation. Although I was wearing the pre-wrap and my team was winning games, they were unrelated. Wearing the pre-wrap did not cause my team to win games.We won the game because we scored more goals than the other team. The pre-wrap had nothing to do with my team winning. It is important to remember that while two variables may have a strong correlation, that doesn’t mean there is a relationship between the two or that one causes the other.
Sources:
Vigen, Tyler. “15 Insane Things That Correlate With Each Other.” Spurious Correlations, https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations.
Hi, I really enjoyed this blog post, as I find myself extremely superstitious. I am a big Giants fan, and before the games, I would always wear the jersey all day. When they were on a winning streak I would think this had to do with the jersey I was wearing. However, I would still be wearing the jersey when they lost, which indicated the jersey and winning had to correlation to each other. I find it interesting that being stereotypical can relate to this topic. The fact that people may believe something off of one thing can be related to this. The two variables do not link up, however, people will still think they do. Noticing the behavior of one person can lead to people associating a whole group with the behavior of that one person. Overall, it is important to be aware of illusionary correlation as it can lead to a negative perspective.
Hi, I loved reading your blog post on Correlation not Causation. Me being an athlete playing three sports in high school I very much enjoyed reading about your soccer superstition. Reading about your post inspired me to think back to when I played baseball and had plenty of superstitions of my own. The first thing I thought of was when I walked up to the plate to bat, before my first at bat at every home game I would right my number in the dirt and then kick the dirt out from the back corner of the batter’s box to indicate where I would place my back foot. I can remember doing this ever since I was very little. One other superstition that I thought of is when I started on the mound pitching. I was fortunate enough to play in one of the nicest baseball stadiums in all of Pennsylvania so when you look up from the mound you see all the people behind home plate sitting in their seats rather than a fence like most fields. I would first always pick the ball up with my glove as I stepped on the mound and then would turn to see the whole team behind me and then glance at the scoreboard. After this and before throwing my first pitch of the game I would find my family in the stands to remind myself that without them I wouldn’t be there. I want to thank you for your great blog post and allowing myself to remember my past superstitions when playing the game, I love. All in all, I thought you did a great job distinguishing correlation from causation and how people may misinterpret the two.