People often look for order when random events occur. They want an explanation when something occurs and often make assumptions about the causation based on insufficient data. This phenomenon is called illusory correlation. Illusory correlation is the perception that two variables have a strong relationship even though no such relationship exists. Superstitions are a common example of illusory correlation. Many sports fans believe that they must wear the same jersey every time their favorite team plays in order for that team to win. Does wearing the same jersey really make the team win? No, it is just a coincidence that their team happened to win when they were wearing the jersey. This belief that the jersey made their team win was based upon insufficient data and therefore is an illusory correlation. There was no evidence to support that the jersey was what made the team win.
Correlation and causation are not the same thing. The picture above shows a graph of the divorce rate in Maine and per capita consumption of margarine. There is a strong correlation between the two variables, however there is no relationship between them. No plausible explanation as to why the divorce rate in Maine decreases as the per capita consumption of margarine increases exists.
Illusory correlation is also seen in everyday life. Stereotyping is one of the most prevalent examples of illusory correlation. Stereotyping is making assumptions about an individual based on what group they are associated with. People judge others based on insufficient data. They believe that just because one member of certain group acts a certain way then everyone in that group acts the same way. It might seem that everyone in a certain group acst one way but there is no way to tell if an individual only acts that way because they are apart of the said group. There is no proof of causation between the two variables.
When I was in high school I played soccer. Before one of our games against one of the harder teams in the league my pre-wrap that I was using as a headband broke. I didn’t have any extra on me so I asked one of my teammates to use some of theirs. It was a different color than what I normally used but I didn’t really care at the time. We ended up winning the game which meant we qualified for playoffs. I, for some reason, thought the pre-wrap had something to do with us winning. So before every game I would ask my teammate for pre-wrap in hopes that we would win every game. The “superstition” worked for most of the season but eventually we ended up losing.
The belief that the pre-wrap was what made my team win games was an example of illusory correlation. Although I was wearing the pre-wrap and my team was winning games, they were unrelated. Wearing the pre-wrap did not cause my team to win games.We won the game because we scored more goals than the other team. The pre-wrap had nothing to do with my team winning. It is important to remember that while two variables may have a strong correlation, that doesn’t mean there is a relationship between the two or that one causes the other.
Sources:
Vigen, Tyler. “15 Insane Things That Correlate With Each Other.” Spurious Correlations, https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations.