Introduction
Greetings, readers! Before I dive into the topic for today, I want to discuss the purpose behind this blog. There is a great debate between who shapes public policy: elected politicians or the people. Both influence each other but in different ways. The best way to settle this issue is to analyze issue polling versus proposed legislation.
This first blog will focus on public opinion of President’s Biden American Rescue Plan, the budget reconciliation process, and the attempted Republican compromise. Let’s get started!
The American Rescue Plan
For context, I will cover the components and cost of President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus relief proposal. Included below are the most important parts of his plan:
-1. Targeted $1,400 direct payments (estimated cost of $465 billion)
-2. $400/week in additional unemployment benefits (estimated cost of $350 billion)
-3. State and local government funding assistance (estimated cost of $350 billion)
-4. Assisting schools in reopening and funding public schools and colleges (estimated cost of $170 billion)
-5. Expanding the current national vaccination and testing program (estimated cost of $160 billion)
This plan was adopted as a budget resolution in both the House and the Senate to take advantage of the fact that the reconciliation process is immune to the 60-member vote (cloture) typically needed to end a Senate filibuster.
This week, the budget resolution measure for the American Rescue Plan passed on partisan lines in both the House (219-209) and the Senate (51-50), with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking the tie in the Senate.
What the Polls Are Saying
Overall, American adults seem to be very supportive of Biden’s plan. According to a recent Yahoo News/YouGov Poll, 74% support $1,400 stimulus checks, 69% support increased federal funding for vaccinations, and 58% support raising the minimum wage to $15/hour. These three policies are the bulk of Biden’s spending proposal and all have majority popularity.
Even across party lines, Biden’s plan is pretty favorable. A Quinnipiac Poll estimates that 97% of Democrats, 68% of Independents, and 37% of Republicans approve of Biden’s plan. It is no surprise that most Republicans are opposed to Biden’s agenda but more than 1/3 still support his proposal for the latest Covid relief bill.
Moderate Republican Senators Try to Compromise
On Sunday, January 31, 10 Republican Senators, including Susan Collins (ME), Lisa Murkowski (AK), and Mitt Romney (UT), sent a letter to Biden with a water-downed version of his original stimulus bill costing roughly 1/3 (~$618 billion) in size. Listed below are the corresponding provisions and their costs compared to Biden’s plan:
-1. Targeted $1,000 direct payments (estimated cost of $220 billion)
-2. Extending $300/week increase in unemployment benefits (estimated cost of $130 billion)
-3. No state and local government funding assistance
-4. Assisting schools in reopening ($20 billion)
-5. Expanding the current national vaccination and testing program (estimated cost of $160 billion)
The Senate Republican plan shares many of the same provisions of Biden’s plan albeit at a reduced cost. For example, Biden’s plan includes $1,400 stimulus checks for individuals making up to $75,000 and married couples making up to $150,000 while the Senate Republican plan reduces the size of the stimulus checks to $1,000 and lowers the income thresholds to $50,000 and $100,000, respectively.
Another noticeable difference is that Biden’s plan increases weekly unemployment benefits by $100. while the Senate Republican plan maintains weekly unemployment benefits at $300. The last key difference is that Biden’s plan supports state and local governments to help them make up with their budget deficits caused by the pandemic while the Senate Republican plan eliminates this provision entirely.
The Analysis
While the Senate Republican plan was more fiscally conservative than Biden’s plan, both were receptive of what Americans wanted. For instance, another round of stimulus checks and federally funded vaccination programs were both supported by around 7 in 10 Americans, and both plans included them.
However, even issues that had majority supportive were very divisive. Around 6 in 10 Americans support a $15 minimum wage, but only Biden’s plan included this provision. Overall, slightly less than 7 in 10 American support the entirety of Biden’s $1.9 trillion plan, but the Senate Republican plan excludes or virtually eliminates two of the most important provisions in Biden’s plan: state and local government funding assistance and funding public schools and colleges.
It is also worth noting that no Republican in either the House or Senate voted in support of the budget resolution for Biden’s plan, yet more than 1/3 of Republicans are in favor of it. This is indicative of the hyperpolarization and extreme partisanship of Congress since any attempts at bipartisanship is politically disadvantageous to individual legislators.
Conclusion
Public opinion seems to have little influence on either Biden’s plan or the Senate Republican plan, except for the mutual support of targeted stimulus checks. However, Biden has seem to taken advantage of the bully pulpit effect in the first month of his presidency as his plan and its individual provisions have been well received even across party lines.
