Current Research:
Rossby Wave Breaking
Rossby wave breaking represents a process where propagating Rossby waves in the atmosphere reach a critical instability at which point they break in a 3-dimensional manner. These events typically occur on the flanks of the sub-tropical and mid-latitude jet stream, and can their resulting evolution can have a feedback on the strength and location of the jet stream. These events are also of critical importance in that they can be associated with a variety of atmospheric phenomena, including but not limited to: Extreme precipitation events; Atmospheric blocking events; Periods of robust increase in available potential energy; and Periods of anomalous and continuous warm or cold anomalies at the surface. Our current research focuses on identifying the frequency of these events in the Northern Hemisphere extratropical circulation and identifying processes associated with such wave breaking events both in the past, present, and future. By successfully understanding the evolution of these processes on synoptic and climate time scales, we hope to better understand their role in observed changes to the jet stream amongst other impacts.
ReForecast Simulator
A fundamental challenge facing the weather forecasting community is the development of automated forecasting algorithms and techniques. This approach to forecasting has demonstrated success and has already started replacing the role of the human forecaster. However, such over-the-loop approaches, wherein the forecaster oversees an automated technique and interjects bias corrections, also can result in an atrophy of forecaster skills. This can manifest as a reduced ability to adequately respond when automation fails or to engage with the forecast process. Further challenges to the modern forecaster includes the volume of data available during the forecasting process, which can overwhelm some forecasters while leaving others to rely on the data rather than an understanding of physical processes in the atmosphere. Enter the Penn State University ReForecast Simulator (PSU-RFS) a new web-based forecasting tool being developed at Penn State by Kevin Bowley and Karl Schneider with the hope of expanding to the greater meteorological community. This tool presents a forecaster with a suite of tools, data, and objectives for a particular forecasting challenge using past events (a ‘re-forecast’). Forecasters will be able to enter a point forecast or zone forecast which, upon forecast submission, will be instantly verified for the user to review using Brier skill or Threat scoring along with providing metrics such as false alarm rates and probabilities of detection. When applied to a classroom setting, instructors will also have the ability to limit the data provided to a forecaster, helping to create a systematic approach toward encouraging student application of knowledge of the atmospheric processes that contribute to a forecast. When applied to the forecasting community, this project seeks to begin to address the concern over forecast skill atrophy by introducing a variety of forecasting scenarios to train from. Stay tuned for further updates as we hope to foster a community approach toward addressing these challenges faced by today’s forecaster through the PSU-RFS. The beta-testing website for accessing model and observation projections can be found at http://climate.met.psu.edu/reforecast/.
Recent Research:
Snowflake Selfies
An engaged scholarship project called “Snowflake Selfies” was developed and implemented in METEO 440W at Penn State with Matthew Kumjian. During the project, students conducted research on snow using low-cost, low-tech instrumentation that may be readily implemented broadly and scaled as needed, particularly at institutions with limited resources. During intensive observing periods (IOPs), students measured snowfall accumulations, snow-to-liquid ratios, and took microscopic photographs of snow using their smartphones. These observations were placed in meteorological context using radar observations and thermodynamic soundings, helping to reinforce concepts from atmospheric thermodynamics, cloud physics, radar, and mesoscale meteorology courses. Students also prepared a term paper and presentation using their datasets/photographs to hone communication skills. The Snowflake Selfies project was well received by undergraduate students as part of the writing-intensive course at Penn State. Responses to survey questions highlight the project’s effectiveness at engaging students and increasing their enthusiasm for the semester-long project. The natural link to social media broadened engagement to the community level. Check out our recent Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society publication on this project: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0096.1
Publications
Kumjian, M. R., J.S. Soderhom, S. W. Nesbitt, P. Maldonado, L. M. Luna, J. Marquis, K. A. Bowley, M. A. Imaz, and P. Salio, 2020: Gargantuan Hail in Argentina, Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 101, E1241–E1258, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0012.1
Kumjian, M. R., K. A. Bowley, P. Markowski, K. Lombardo, Z. Lebo, and P. Kollias, 2020: Snowflake Selfies: A low-cost, high-impact approach toward student engagement in scientific research, Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 101, E917-E935, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0096.1
Ma, J., K.A. Bowley, and F. Zhang, 2019: Evaluating the Forecast Performance of the Meiyu Front Rainbelt Position: A Case Study of the 30 June to 4 July 2016 Extreme Rainfall Event. Atmosphere, 10, 648, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10110648
Bowley, K.A., J.R. Gyakum, and E.H. Atallah, 2019: The Role of Dynamic Tropopause Rossby Wave Breaking for Synoptic-Scale Buildups in Northern Hemisphere Zonal Available Potential Energy. Mon. Wea. Rev., 147, 433–455, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0143.1
Bowley, K.A., J.R. Gyakum, and E.H. Atallah, 2019: A New Perspective toward Cataloging Northern Hemisphere Rossby Wave Breaking on the Dynamic Tropopause. Mon. Wea. Rev., 147, 409–431, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0131.1
Bowley, K.A., E.H. Atallah, and J.R. Gyakum, 2018: Synoptic-Scale Zonal Available Potential Energy Increases in the Northern Hemisphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 75, 2385–2403, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0292.1
Bowley, K: Interpreting rapid increases of zonal available potential energy from a synoptic-scale perspective. Ph.D. Thesis, McGill University, 2017.
Bowley, K: An Evaluation of the Observational Capabilities of a Scanning 95-GHz Radar in Studying the 3D Structures of Marine Stratocumulus Clouds. M.Sc. Thesis, McGill University, 2012.
Select Presentations
Kevin Bowley and Melissa Gervais: Rossby wave breaking through the 21st century in a global climate model. EGU General Assembly, 2020, Vienna, Austria. Digital Oral Presentation.
Kevin Bowley and Melissa Gervais: Rossby wave breaking through the 21st century in a global climate model. Meteorology Seminar Series – Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida; 2020 (Invited Speaker).
Karl P. Schneider*, K. Bowley, N. Tulli, A. Person, and C. Bahrmann: Into the Simulator: Development of a New Suite of Training Tools to Address the Needs of the Modern Weather Forecaster. AMS Annual Meeting, 2020, Boston, Massachusetts, USA. Poster Presentation.
Kevin Bowley and Melissa Gervais: Rossby wave breaking through the 21st century in a global climate model. AGU Fall Meeting, 2019, San Francisco, California, USA. Oral Presentation.
Kevin Bowley and Melissa Gervais: Rossby wave breaking through the 21st century in a global climate model. Frank Talk – Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, Penn State University, University Park, Pennsylvania; 2019 (Invited Speaker).
Kevin Bowley and Melissa Gervais: Rossby wave breaking through the 21st century in a global climate model. 19th Cyclone Workshop, Seeon, Germany; 2019. Oral Presentation.
Kevin Bowley, John R. Gyakum, and Eyad Atallah: Interpreting rapid increases of zonal available potential energy from a synoptic-scale perspective. Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, Penn State University, University Park, Pennsylvania; 2018 (Invited Speaker).
Kevin Bowley, John R. Gyakum, and Eyad Atallah: A diagnosis of the role of anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking in increasing zonal available potential energy. AMS 29th WAF/25th NWP meeting, 2018, Denver, Colorado, USA. Oral Presentation.
Kevin Bowley, John R. Gyakum, and Eyad Atallah: Rossby wave breaking and winter Northern Hemisphere zonal available potential energy. 18th Cyclone Workshop, 2017, Ste. Adele, Quebec, Canada. Oral Presentation.
Kevin Bowley, John R. Gyakum, and Eyad Atallah: The importance of wave break events for synoptic scale buildups in zonal available potential energy. Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, 2017, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Oral Presentation.
Kevin Bowley, John R. Gyakum, and Eyad Atallah: The importance of wave break events for synoptic scale buildups in zonal available potential energy. EGU General Assembly, 2017, Vienna, Austria. Oral Presentation.
Kevin Bowley, John R. Gyakum, and Eyad Atallah: The importance of wave break events for synoptic scale buildups in zonal available potential energy. 2017 AMS Annual meeting/AMS 28th WAF/24th NWP meeting, 2017, Seattle, Washington, USA. Poster Presentation.
Kevin Bowley, John R. Gyakum, and Eyad Atallah: The importance of wave break events for synoptic scale buildups in zonal available potential energy. AGU Fall Meeting, 2016, San Francisco, California, USA. Oral Presentation.
Kevin Bowley, John R Gyakum and Eyad Atallah: Identifying synoptic-scale sources of short-term (3-10 day) Northern Hemisphere zonal available potential energy generation. 17th Cyclone Workshop, 2015, Pacific Grove, California, USA. Oral Presentation.
Kevin A. Bowley, J. R. Gyakum and E. H. Atallah: Identifying synoptic-scale sources of short-term (3-10 day) zonal available potential energy generation. AMS 27th WAF/23rd NWP meeting, 2015, Chicago, Illinois, USA. Oral Presentation.
Kevin Bowley, John R Gyakum, and Eyad Atallah: Identifying synoptic-scale sources of short-term (3-10 day) zonal available potential energy generation. AGU-GAC-MAC-CGU Joint Assembly, 2015, Montreal, Quebec, Canada. Oral Presentation.
Kevin Bowley, John Gyakum, and Eyad Atallah: A new approach on approximations of available potential energy and diagnosis of short-term increase events. The Latsis Symposium, 2014, Zurich, Switzerland. Poster Presentation.
Kevin Bowley, John Gyakum, and Eyad Atallah: A 1979-2012 climatology of Northern Hemisphere Available Potential Energy: source/sink regions, and short-term increase events. 16th Cyclone Workshop, 2013, Sainte-Adele, Quebec, Canada. Oral Presentation.
Kevin Bowley, Ieng Jo, Pavlos Kollias, and Aleksandra Tatarevic: 3D Scanning Cloud Radar Observations at Azores during the ARM AMF field campaign: Reconstruction and study of 3D cloud structures and properties. AGU Fall Meeting, 2010, San Francisco, California, USA. Oral Presentation.
Bold denotes presenting author, * denotes student supervised by Kevin Bowley
