One of the most popular topics in the international politics world is Brexit. The entire world is wondering what will happen with the United Kingdom if they leave the EU. On March 21, Donald Tusk, President of the European Council, finally announced that 27 EU leaders had agreed unanimously on a response to the British Prime Minister’s request to delay Brexit and avoid a chaotic split on March 29. And to everyone’s surprise, they offered her two options.

First, a short delay, giving the UK until May 22 to get its affairs in order before leaving the EU. But that option is only available if lawmakers in the House of Commons approve Theresa May’s overall withdrawal deal next week.

Alternatively, option two kicks in if Theresa May loses the third “meaningful” vote on her deal. That allows the UK to stay in the EU until April 12, at which point it must make a choice: Take part in the European parliamentary elections in May and seek a longer delay to Brexit, or don’t. Should it come to it, the implications of that decision will be the next big Brexit bust-up.

This leaves two options of what will come next:

The first would be that the Members of Parliament approve Theresa May’s deal.

Therefore, the UK would leave under Theresa May’s EU Withdrawal Agreement on 22 May, to enable Parliament to pass all the legislation needed. But getting it approved will be a tough task for Mrs May, especially after she angered Members of Parliament on Wednesday by going on television to essentially blame them for the impasse. She did offer a more conciliatory tone on Thursday but it remains to be seen if she will be able to convince Members of Parliament to back her agreement.

The second would be that the Members of Parliament reject Theresa May’s deal.

Then the UK could still leave with no deal on 12 April if a way forward is not found. But other options include:

• Parliament could try to take control of the process and offer a new strategy. Members of Parliament have been told that if the deal is rejected they can hold a series of “indicative” votes to see if there is a majority for any particular alternative, such as staying in the EU Customs Union
• The opposition Labour party could table a vote of no confidence aimed at bringing down Mrs May’s government – but it would require the support of some of Mrs May’s own Conservatives. It is not clear what would happen to the dates set by the EU
• Mrs May could ask Parliament to hold an early general election or, most unlikely, call another referendum. Again, it is not entirely clear what would happen in that scenario
• Article 50, the two-year treaty provision that the UK invoked to leave the bloc in 2017, could be revoked by Mrs May, delaying Brexit indefinitely. But she is strongly opposed to that. A petition calling for the article to be revoked has reached more than three million signatures

Frustration with Britain’s political dysfunction has been palpable in Brussels, which has seen its agenda hijacked by the constant twists and turns of a divided British government that seems incapable of deciding what it wants.

The other European leaders believe that Mrs. May has lost much of her authority, and they have largely lost faith in her ability to deliver on Brexit. The option of a longer extension is meant to give Parliament time to take control of the process, if it can, or even for the British to have a general election to break the current political impasse.

Mrs. May’s plan would eventually give Britain power over immigration from Europe, but tie the country to the European Union’s customs and trade system until at least the end of 2020.

Speaking after the meeting, Mrs. May insisted that Britain would leave the European Union, but gave no clarity on what would happen if her deal is rejected next week.

Even though this is a problem occurring within the European Union countries, it is a big problem for the entire world.

If you’re a European nation: You have the most to lose. Just under half of the UK’s exports go to the EU. Just over half of its imports come from the other 27 nations in the bloc. All of that is now up for a renegotiation. Whenever Europe’s done something useful on that front, the UK — a serious military power — has often been in the driver’s seat. So, the EU is losing a heavyweight.

If you’re the US: The world’s already dangerous and volatile enough. Some in the United States may worry that the unraveling of the union — a vital ally — will unleash more instability. The UK also is America’s seventh-biggest trading partner. This could cause problems in the future.

If you’re any other nation: The UK has the fifth-biggest national economy in the world. Think of the effect Brexit will have on the world’s markets. Even if they don’t collapse, the uncertainty is bad enough. Markets love stability. And unstable markets equal potential bad news for a country’s economy.

Images Courtesy of CNN

This week has been a relatively calm week in the terms of global politics- not as much is happening as there was in the past. In theory, that should be a good thing as the less instability in the international state system the better. This week we will be analyzing a country that is lying in a very precarious position: Thailand. Although Thailand is not currently in a crisis they are positioned in a game of see-saw. The outcomes of the events currently being played out have the potential to return the country to a democratic state- or the potential to dash any remaining hope of reestablishing democracy within the country.

So what is happening in the country? Political turmoil over the elections that will be occuring in the country in March. The turmoil itself lies within the fact that ex-princess of Thailand Ubolratana Mahidol has declared her intention to run for Prime Minister of Thailand in the next election. This is deemed controversial as for the rest of Thailand history, the royal family has refrained from being involved in the political system (at least, public office). This has caused large tension between Mahidol and the rest of her family following her announcement.

Following her declaration to run, King Vajiralongkorn of Thailand released a statement condoning her actions calling it “inappropriate” and “unprecedented” in Thailand’s culture. Mahidol argues that there is nothing wrong with what she is doing. She has renounced her royalty over 40 years ago in order to marry and move to the United States. Since she has done this, she argues that she is no more than a commoner in Thailand who simply wants what is best for the people of the nation. This is controversial, however, because although she has formally renounced her royalty, she still maintains certain social benefits from her status as a former princess that can’t be ignored and would give her an edge over her competition.

I should clarify that this isn’t some type of political power grab made by her independently- she was in fact nominated by the Thai Raska Chart party in her country.

This is a pivotal time in Thailand politics because it gives the country a chance to return to a democratic state. It has currently been under military rule for the past five years. For Thailand, military rule is no stranger- the country has unfortunately been under military rule on numerous occasions. Despite these periods of military rule the country has still been under “constitutional rule” (if you overlook the military regimes) for over 80 years.

So where is Thailand heading? The resolution to this crisis is critical to the survival of democracy within the country as a whole. The King of Thailand has publicly denounced her actions, as previously mentioned, and because of this there will likely be an elections committee formed to determine whether or not she is eligible to run for Prime Minister. The decision of this committee will have major implications for the future of Thailand. If they decide that ex-princess Ubolratana Mahidol is unable to run due to her past as royalty there could be potential riots in the street, claiming that the decision was unfair and just a political move made by the King to stop his sister from gaining power. At the same time, if they decide she is eligible to run, there could just as well be protests in the country claiming that the royal family was attempting to consolidate all of the powers in their hands again.

Either way, the series of events unfolding in Thailand are fascinating to watch and will have important implications for South Asian politics. Although Thailand politics are not often reported on by major media in the United States, this story has the potentially to be covered, and if it is not covered I strongly encourage that you do some research to stay up to date on the events on your own.

Images courtesy of BBC News

Jumping from one Spanish-speaking country to another, this week we will be focusing in on the issues facing Spain. Spain currently finds itself in the most precarious of positions and most people don’t even realize how bad the situation in Spain truly is. Just as a quick history refresher, Spain is located on the Iberian Peninsula, and was once a massive, extremely wealthy kingdom that possessed colonies throughout the Americas. The modern Spain, however, is no where near as wealthy as it once was. This was particularly true for Spain in the years of 2008 though 2014 although the citizens of Spain still feel the after effects of this hard recession to date.

This economic crisis, experienced by Spain at a similar time to the US recession, is a major root to the cause of the problems that Spain is experiencing today. In October of 2017, the Catalonian region of Spain held a referendum in order to secede from the rest of Spain. The main reason for this was largely economic-based. The people within the region feel as if though they contribute an immense amount of cash into the Spanish government and receive barely any benefits from the government. This anger towards paying more towards you get is certainly justified- except it is difficult to prove just how much more they are contributing than receiving as they claim. Catalonian was also angry because in 2006 a statue was passed that gave the Catalonia region more independence from Spain but was struck down four years later in 2010.Regardless, this referendum was held to become independent from Spain and it passed.

This referendum, however, greatly angered Spain. The Catalonian region of Spain produces roughly 20% of Spain’s economy– despite only making up 16% of Spain’s population. To help visualize that, this means that the Catalonian region of Spain contributes more to the Spanish economy than the state of California contributes to the economy of the United States (in terms of  percentage- the United States remains the worlds largest economy by far). This is largely from things such as tourism and exports. The Catalonian region is home to some of the most famous areas of Spain, such as Barcelona and Ibiza. Therefore, Spain doesn’t want to lose such a profitable region. Following the referendum, chaos ensued in the region as police and protestors clashed against one another. The resulting encounter between the two sides resulted in numerous arrests, injuries, and deaths.

Spain’s constitutional court deemed the referendum illegal. Furthermore, the overall legitimacy of the referendum is questionable. Organizers of the referendum claim that 90% of the voters supported the secession movement. This is problematic however, because voter turnout was only at an alleged 43%- therefore, it is impossible to know what is an accurate and true reflection of the Catalonian people’s opinion on if they want to leave Spain.

All of these events lead us to the present events of Spain. Although the referendum was a year and a half ago, the trials for the secessionist leaders will be beginning on February 4th, reigniting tensions in Spain as well as reinvigorating the secessionist movement within the Catalonian region. The leaders on trial could face up to 25 years in prison for their actions. Additionally, the trial marks a critical moment in the Spanish judicial system and whether or not the courts can actually be impartially and just consider the facts that are presented in court.

The referendum has led to other long term consequences within Spain aside from the secessionist movement. With this referendum, Spain has experienced a rise in nationalism as well as a rise extreme right-wing parties being elected into office.

The country in crisis this week is no where near either Saudi Arabia nor the United Kingdom. This week we will be analyzing the state (and lack there of) of Venezuela. Venezuela is another country that is in some deep trouble these days. The problems that are facing Venezuela are mostly economic but have led to various sever consequences throughout the state.

Problems began in Venezuela in 1999 when Hugo Chávez was elected President of Venezuela. When Chávez was elected, there was a large economic gap in the country and many socialist reforms were put in place in an attempt to lessen the gap. One such example was putting a price cap on basic goods like flour and toiletries. These efforts, however, ultimately backfired as it led to people no longer producing these goods as they were unprofitable with the caps in place. Succeeding Chávez is Nicolás Maduro who followed the same style of socialist policies as his predecessor.

Venezuela’s economy was once one of the best within the South American region. This was largely due in part due to the fact that Venezuela possess the largest oil reserves in the world (sorry Saudi Arabia you are only in second place) and thus got to experience large economic growth exporting oil to other countries. The revenue from this allowed the government to fund various programs, and for a brief period Venezuela was prosperous. However, Venezuela relied too heavily on its oil production for revenue. When the crude oil prices plummeted in 2014, Venezuela’s economy was crippled as oil accounts for 96% of Venezuela’s exports.

Since the collapse of oil prices in 2014, the Venezuelan economy has gone into a spiral. Inflation has reached an all time high of 1,300,000% (1.3 million percent) in the country. To put that into perspective one cup of coffee would double in price in-between the time you received your biweekly paycheck. Because of this the most basic goods are hard to come by; the citizens of Venezuela are struggling to buy necessities such as food and medicine. Even things like condoms are considered a luxury- creating a larger problem with unwanted pregnancies, more mouths to feed, and the spread of diseases. Furthermore, without the ability to possess enough capital to afford medicine, many people in Venezuela are dying of various illnesses.

Since then there has been a large increase in migration of Venezuelan citizens to the surrounding countries within South America. The most popular destination to migrate to is Colombia. Sometimes full families go and sometimes just one parent will go to find work in another country and send their remittances back to their family. So far, over 3 million people have fled Venezuela due to the economic crisis.

It is clear to see why the citizens of Venezuela would be angry with their current government- they can’t even afford the most basic goods in life. There have been numerous protests throughout the country in recent years, a few even resulting in deaths of protestors. Protests have struck another high point within the country- this time due to strains on the current election system in Venezuela. In May of 2018 elections were held and Maduro was re-elected to a second term of six years. However, the results of this election are highly contested because he faced little to none opposition. 

Maduro did not face limited opposition because his citizens believed he was competent in running the country. Rather, his election was a result due to the fact that he eliminated any forms of opposition that were credible threats to his re-election campaign. He barred some opponents from running, jailed others, and other ones fled the country out of fear of being jailed or worse. Therefore, many of the opposition claimed that the election was not fair nor free.

Furthermore, the citizens of Venezuela felt as if though the actual democracy was falling apart in Venezuela. Originally there was the president and the National Assembly that would work together to make laws for the country. The Venezuelan people were actually successful in electing opponents of Maduro to the National Assembly. Because of this however, Maduro created the National Constituent Assembly in 2017 that was comprised of government loyalists and took over most of the duties of the National Assembly, thus making them powerless.

Most recently, president of the National Assembly, Juan Guaidó declared himself acting (interim) President of Venezuela. Using articles 233 and 333 of the constitution of Venezuela he declared that he had power to become the temporary President. Obviously, Maduro denies the legitimacy of these claims and (so far) the military of Venezuela sides with him.

Internationally, though, is a different story. Guaidó has gained support from multiple other leaders within Latin America and other international leaders. Most importantly, he received support from the United States, with President Trump himself tweeting out his support. This led to backlash against the United States from Maduro and Russia. Maduro claims the US is behind attempts to oust him from power (given the history of the US interfering in Latin American affairs for its benefit this isn’t a stretch) and broke off diplomatic relations with the US, giving them 72 hours to leave the country. Russia has backed Maduro and has advised the US to not interfere and called “the attempt to usurp the top power in Venezuela as going against the foundations and principles of the international law.”

All images courtesy of BBC unless linked otherwise.

Another country in recent political turmoil is Saudi Arabia. Although Saudi Arabia is usually a hot pressing topic in the international state system, it was truly placed under the microscope following the death of exiled journalist (and critic of the Saudi Crown) Jamal Khashoggi while he was visiting the Saudi consulate in Turkey in an attempt to get divorce papers so he could marry his new fiancé. In case you missed the story while it was breaking you can catch up on it here. Following his death there was a period (roughly two weeks in length) where Saudi Arabia claimed it had no knowledge of what happened to Khashoggi. Eventually conflicting reports came out as to various rogue operations that took place within the Saudi consulate that led to Khashoggi’s demise. Finally, over a month after his death, a Saudi prosecutor revealed that Khashoggi was given a lethal injection following a struggle, and that his body was dismembered within the consult. Throughout this whole process there was a strong outcry against the Saudi crown, both domestic and abroad.

Internally, this whole scandal is causing dissent and casting doubt over Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman. Senior princes are displeased with the conduct in which Mohammad sin Salman is behaving and considered reproaching him. His popularity with youth, however, remains strong as he is credited to many seemingly progressive moments in the nation, such as giving women the right to drive as well as reintroducing movies into the Saudi Arabian culture.

Seemingly every country abroad was up in arms about this elaborate killing of a journalist who spoke out against the Saudi government. Nearly everyone but one: the United States of America. Of course many people in America were upset with what Saudi Arabia had done, but no official condonation was given to the country. Why might this be you ask? There are a multitude of reasons for which the United States did not and will not condone Saudi Arabia for killing Khashoggi.

First, Saudi Arabia has huge oil reservers. Here in the United States we love oil, in fact we can’t get enough of it! Therefore, we wouldn’t do something that would cause Saudi Arabia to go to OPEC and cause a shortage of oil in the United States or dramatically increase the price of oil per barrel that the United States would be buying. Another major reason for why the United States would not condone Saudi Arabia is because of money. More specifically, weapons deals. Saudi Arabia is not capable of producing major weapons within their own country. For this reason they buy their weapons from the United States of America. In fact, Saudi Arabia is the United States of Americas’ number one customer when it comes to weapons. In 2017 a new weapons deal was struck up between the two countries in which Saudi Arabia would pay $110 billion dollars initially and an additional #350 billion over the course of ten years. Finally, the United States would never condone the actions of Saudi Arabia because we need the support of that country. One of the biggest enemies that is. affording state to the United States of America is Iran. The US became enemies with Iran following a military coup backed by the US. To make a long, messy story short the new regime that took place in Iran following the coup was extremely anti-United States and the two nations have been bitter enemies ever since. Many countries followed suit, turning their backs to the United States. This created a block of Middle Eastern nations that are all anti-United States, save for Saudi Arabia. Therefore, it is critical that the United States stays in good relations wit Saudi Arabia so they do not join Iran.

Were any actions taken against the Saudi Arabian regime? In fact there were. For example, Germany halted all sales of weapons to Saudi Arabia following the murder of Khashoggi. The German weapons industry fell over 22% in total exports because of this but Chancellor Merkel remained firm in her decision.

One country completely outraged by this series of events was Turkey, as the killing happened in their country. Turkey is angry with Saudi Arabia for conducting illegal activities within their sovereign borders and Turkey is also enraged with the United States and the response it gave about the death of Khashoggi, as it placed no blame on the leaders of the Saudi Government.

P.S. last week I wrote about the United Kingdom. Since writing that, the UK Parliament voted on the Brexit deal and it was shot down in historic proportions, once again throwing British politics into chaos. Prime Minister Theresa May once again had to stand before a no confidence vote, and once again she survived. This leaves a major question as to where the country will go from here.

All photos courtesy of CNN, BBC, and the Jerusalem Post

Politics in the United States of America are certainly a tangled, complex web these days. With so much happening in the United States it is easy to overlook the events that are occurring in the international state system. This however, would be a grave mistake, as the events that occur outside the borders affect the policies of the United States of America. There are numerous important states across the globe that will be discussed in the following weeks. The first country to analyze is the branch from which the United States of America stems from: the United Kingdom.

One of the biggest problems that continues to plague politics in the United Kingdom is the process of the Brexit. On June 23 of 2016 the United Kingdom held a referendum on other or not they should remain within the Europe Union. When the results came in it revealed that the country was extremely split amongst citizens. 51.9% of the population decided that they wanted to leave the European Union; narrowly edging out the 48.1% who voted to remain within the European Union.  More specifically within the United Kingdom, Britain voted 53.4% to 46.6% to leave the European Union, Wales voted 52.5% to 47.5% to leave, Scotland voted 62% to 38% to remain in the European Union, and Northern Ireland voted 55.8% to 44.2% to stay. Thus, the process of the Brexit began.

The United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union for a variety of reasons. One main reason the desire to leave the European Union was due to economics. Much of southern Europe is experiencing a stagnant economy and economic crisis; therefore, opponents to the European Union thought that being tethered to those countries would be detrimental to the United Kingdom’s overall prosperity. Another reason that people wanted to leave the European Union was so that the United Kingdom would have more sovereignty. As seen with many nations across the international stage there has been a trend towards nationalism in recent years: the same is true for the United Kingdom. Those who wanted to leave the European Union argued that the United Kingdom should be able to make their own decisions on issues such as immigration- something that, under the European Union, was impossible to due. A third large contributing cause towards the decision to leave the European Union was revolt against the political elite in the United Kingdom. The average, everyday citizens felt as if though the leaders had lost touch with what was best for the nation and therefore rejected current political leaders and systems.

The world had mixed reactions to the United Kingdoms. Many state leaders of the European Union expressed their regret of the outcome but that they would still cooperate with the United Kingdom in the future. Then President Barack Obama, expressed that the United States would respect the decisions of the citizens of the United Kingdom and looked forward to working with both the Untied Kingdom and the European Union in the future. Despite the seeming support from all global leaders the financial market seemed to have less faith in this decision. Following the Brexit vote stocks around the globe plummeted and the British pound- one of the world’s strongest currencies- fell with it as well.

Despite these events occurring almost three years ago, the Brexit vote remains a major issue for British politics. The date in which the United Kingdom is scheduled to leave the European Union is currently slated for March 29th, 2019. With such a close departure date one would assume that the United Kingdom has a plan for its exit. However, this could not be further from the truth. As of right now there appears to be no deal with the European Union. This so called “hard break” from the European Union (as opposed to a “soft break”- one where there is a deal) would have the United Kingdom leaving the European with no benefits that it had while being a member. This is problematic as it greatly will affect how the United Kingdom operates with its close trading partners; no longer will the United Kingdom be able to have its citizens move freely across European borders and no longer will the United Kingdom have access to free trade in the region. The government does possess the ability to extend the deadline of when the United Kingdom is leaving the European Union, if they choose to do so.

The stress of trying to create a deal for the Brexit has put severe strain on the support of current Prime Minister Theresa May. Many citizens in the nation are now doubting the Brexit plan and May’s ability to lead the country as a whole. Most recently, May was subjected to a vote of no-confidence (meaning that the majority does not support the policy of a leader) but somehow was able to survive it. 

The politics of the United Kingdom is obviously a complicated and confusing. The future of the United Kingdom, its political leaders, and its prosperity is uncertain at this point and will most definitely be very exciting observe.

Images courtesy of BBC News