Tensions in the Middle East are rapidly rising, as Saudi Arabia’s fuel disappeared, fuel was added to the flame of the proxy war in Yemen between Iran and Saudi Arabia. On Saturday, September 14, 2019, one half of Saudi Arabia oil capacity was knocked out by airstrikes carried out by the Houthi rebels and Iran according to the United States and Saudi governments. Iran vehemently denies involvement, while the Houthi rebel group in Yemen has claimed responsibility.

Source: NBC News

Now, to understand why this attack was significant, let’s take a brief step back and look at how the civil war in Yemen began and why it concerns Saudi Arabia. The civil war in Yemen began in 2015 when Houthi rebels took control of northern land while the Yemeni government struggled to transition. After Saleh, the then president, and the government failed to take control back from the Houthis, Saudi Arabia became concerned. The Saudi’s believed that the Houthi rebels were being supported by Iran and did not want to see Iran’s sphere of influence grow. Armed with the United States, United Kingdom, and other Western powers weapons and intelligence, Saudi Arabia began to launch an airstrike campaign targeting the Houthi rebels. These attacks have continued into the present day.

Source: Time Magazine

Saudi Arabia’s involvement in Yemen’s civil war has been increasingly criticized, as intelligence indicates that Iran did not become involved in the conflict until after Saudi Arabia joined. Furthermore, despite the use of the United States intelligence, Saudi Arabia’s airstrikes have been incredibly inaccurate, and responsible for the majority of civilian deaths in Yemen. In February 2019 the United Nations reported that of the 7,025 killed 4,585 of the deaths (approximately 65%) were caused by Saudi Arabia. The report furthers that “80 percent of the population – some 24 million people – need humanitarian assistance and protection.” It is for these reasons that the Houthi’s (and through them Iran) have motive to attack Saudi Arabia.

Source: Foreign Policy

So how are these airstrikes on Saudi Arabia’s oil field significant? Well most obviously, oil prices have skyrocketed, leading to the largest oil disruption in history. Prices in the United States rose 18% on Sunday but decreased down to 14% by Monday after President Trump reported that the U.S. would be using its own oil reserves. The global benchmark rose 14% to $62.90 a barrel. Two Saudi officials told CNN Business that the recovery process would likely take weeks. Evidently, this is a crippling blow to the economy of not only Saudi Arabia, but also the world.

Source: CNN

More concerningly, however, is the rising tensions between Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the United States. On Sunday, President Donald Trump accused Iran of launching the attacks and furthered claimed the United States was “locked and loaded;” implying the possibility of war. This has inflamed the already precarious relationship between the United States and Iran. The two have been at odds since Trump terminated the Iran Nuclear Agreement.

For now, the best course of action, in my opinion, is to not begin to fling accusations at Iran until concrete evidence can tie them to the attacks. A war between Iran and Saudi Arabia would be disastrous, and only further add to the chaos and conflict that is occurring throughout the Middle East. If Iran is responsible, the United States will need to tread carefully when creating a solution that will not further isolate Iran but also not anger Saudi Arabia. Hopefully, this is an issue that can be resolved diplomatically but at present I believe it will be very difficult to avoid conflict, especially with the inflammatory rhetoric being thrown around by both sides.