When the Syrian civil war began in 2011, it created an atmosphere that terrorist groups, such as ISIS, were able to take advantage of to expand their influence. At this point in time, the United States was fighting the “war on terror,” following the 9/11 attacks by al-Qaeda. Thus, when the United States noticed the large swathes of land ISIS had taken control of, they became involved in Syria. One of the United States’ main allies in Syria was the Kurdish militia. Together, the United States and the Kurdish militias were able to diminish ISIS’s power in Syria.
Source: The Washington Post
Last week, President Trump announced that the United States would be pulling out their forces at the border between Turkey and Syria, where they had been acting as a buffer between the Kurds and the Turks. Over the last century, conflicts have begun to develop between the Kurds and the Turks. Once, many Kurds resided in and were proud citizens of Turkey. However, when the Turkish government banned their language, the Kurds felt betrayed; inciting ethnic division. The Council on Foreign Relations reports that the conflict between PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party) and Turkey has resulted in forty thousand deaths.
Source: UK Parliament Publications
So why is Turkey attacking the Democratic Union Party (PYD, the main Kurdish militia in Syria) if they are United States allies and helping fight back against ISIS? Because the PYD has some relations with the PKK. Turkey is wary of the PKK as it has led insurgencies within Turkey and is labeled a terrorist organization by Turkey, the European Union, and the United States. Within days of the withdrawal of the United States’ troops, Turkey invaded Kurdish-controlled Syria.
Source: BBC
The BBC reports that since Turkey’s invasion: “At least 50 civilians have been killed inside Syria and 18 over the border in southern Turkey… Kurdish forces have confirmed the deaths of 56 of their fighters while Turkey says 4 of its soldiers and 16 pro-Turkish Syrian fighters have been killed in Syria.” The U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reports that at least 160,000 civilians have been displaced since the Turkish offensive began.
Source: NBC News
Not only did the United States abandon an ally, but the decision to withdraw troops has also provided the perfect opportunity for Iran and Russia to further gain influence in the Middle East. Already, Russian and Syrian troops have taken back a key town where the United States had troops posted in an effort to stop Turkish movements through Syria. Furthermore, the United States’ allies the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia had meetings with President of Russia Putin, as they raise concerns about the United States’ commitment to their respective alliances.
Source: The Washington Post
The United States has responded by putting sanctions on Turkish officials involved with the invasion, but they hardly have an impact on the Turkish economy, particularly not enough to stop an invasion. Moreover, President Erdoğan of Turkey has stated that they will not be initiating a cease-fire in Turkey any time soon.
Source: The Wall Street Journal
With one decision, President Trump has created utter chaos in the Middle East, all of which have negative ramifications for the United States. A humanitarian crisis has been created; the disorder is allowing the rise of ISIS in the region again; Iran and Russia, two of the United States’ adversaries, are expanding their influence; and critical United States allies in the region are beginning to turn away from the United States. At this point, I see very little possibility for this conflict to be resolved, and any attempts to do so will be too little, too late.