Our experience of climate change can lend itself to headlines turning into doomsday predictions, and are therefore taken less seriously by some readers. However, the contents of these articles should not be ignored, despite their shock value. This year the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America predicted that the sea level will rise 6.6 feet by 2100 if the global temperature warms by 9 degrees Fahrenheit. This estimate was produced as a “worst case scenario”, as if no changes were made in between now and 2100 to reduce the planet’s greenhouse gas emissions. This would mean that hundreds of millions of people would be displaced and forcibly removed (permanently) from their homes due to severe flooding. The rising sea level will effect civilizations in numerous parts of the world at the rate the planet is warming. According to an article from the economic world forum, “climate-related displacement and migration is set to be the greatest challenge of our era.”
Climate change and “unprecedented weather” can cause large migrations, competition for food/water/resources, and frequent and more severe disease outbreaks. These effects most often impact developing countries and fragile states, examples being Yemen, Somalia, South Sudan, Syrica, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. As fragile states and developing countries are escaping and surviving the effects of climate change now, residents of coastal areas of the United States will experience similar turmoil in the near future. Since there are numerous coastal locations that will be impacted by climate change and sea level rise, each differing with its own implications and emergent situations, this essay will focus specifically on New York City in order to provide a more thorough and detailed analysis. If the planet warms by 9 degrees Fahrenheit and causes the sea levels to rise by 6.6 feet by 2100, then New York City will decrease from an average of 33 feet above sea level to 26.3 feet, causing surges of inhabitants to be displaced from their homes.
First, to view this mathematically, we will convert 6.6 feet into inches.
\[ 6 \text{ feet} \times \frac{12 \text{ inches}}{1 \text{ gallon}} = 72 \text{ inches} \]
Now, we will add the other 6 inches.
\[ 72 \text{ inches} + 6 \text{ inches} = 78 \text{ inches} \]
Next, we will determine the time between the present and 2100.
\[ 2020 – 2100 = 80 \text{ years} \]
In 80 years, the sea level will rise by 78 inches.
\[ \frac{80 \text{ years}}{78 \text{ inches}} = 1.025641026 \text{ inches} \]
\[ 1.025641026 \text{ inches} = 1 \text{ inch} . \]
For visualization and estimate purposes, we can assume that the sea level will rise by 1 inch every year for 80 years (up to 2100). Even though in real life, it would probably have bursts of accelerating periods, such as after winter when large amounts of ice melts.
Let’s say that for every 12 inches of sea level rise (within 12 years), one foot more of land in New York City will be “under water”.
New York City is (on average) 33 feet above sea level, which happens to be much lower than the state average, which is 1,000 feet.
We will convert 33 feet into inches:
\[ 33 \text{ feet} \times \frac{12 \text{ inches}} {1 \text{ foot}} = 396 \text{ inches} \]
Now, we will subtract 80 inches of sea level rise from New York City’s average elevation.
\[ 396 \text{ inches} – 80 \text{ inches} = 316 \text{ inches} \]
316 inches is how much New York City’s elevation will be after this prediction. To finish up, we will convert that number back into feet.
316 inches = 26.3 average of feet above sea level.
\[ 316 \text{ inches} \times \frac{1 \text{ foot}}{12 \text{ inches}} = 26.3 \text{ feet} \]
(Disclaimer: New York City will experiences climate related changes and displacement long before the sea level actually reaches 6.6 feet.).
According to research done by Charles Geisler, a professor of development of sociology at Cornell, two billion people around the world are likely to be displaced because of sea level rises from climate change, and New York City’s residents are easily among them. Out of all of all of the cities in the United States, New York City has the highest population living inside of a floodplain. For example, one notable location is the United Nations headquarters, which is right along the East River. This particular location is elevated, but the coastal neighborhoods around it are not and its residents will be displaced. Flooding will be worse in lower lying parts of New York City such as Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens. Airports such as LaGaurdia and John F Kennedy would also be submerged. And of course, 20 feet below ground, subways would be completely out of commission.
There is a possibility that, even though New York City has enough money for preventative measures (such as seawalls), a sudden massive storm could cause a surge of people to quickly leave and move to higher ground, according to Geisler. Logically, as the sea level rises, storms and hurricanes will be more impactful since the water level is closer to land to begin with before the storm even hits. The ocean can be thought of as a bathtub that’s filled close to the top. It would only take a small disturbance (such as an extreme high tide) to push water over the edge of the tub and onto the bathroom floor. Except, in real life, the bathroom floor would be New York City. Malcom Bowman, an oceanography professor from Stonybrook University in Long Island, New York said that more violent storms and flooding will become as routine as the heavy snows that the city receives. Snow days will be akin to “flood days”. In fact, over 30,000 properties are already at risk for “frequent tidal flooding” in New York state. Geisler stated that people leaving the area would cause a “real estate boom” upstate. This also happened after 9-11 when people migrated out of the city to be safer than sorry incase another similar catastrophe hit.
A comparable severe weather circumstance that New York City experienced was the destruction brought on by the unanticipated Superstorm Sandy (in 2012). This storm showed characteristics of a tropical storm and a nor’easter. During the storm surge and already high tide, water levels rose to 9 feet in areas such as Battery Park, Manhattan. About 17%, or 51 square miles, were flooded in total. There were also 43 deaths in New York City. Storm surges and flooding from storms such as this will be even more devastating when the sea levels rise over the next 80 years. It will take less effort for storms to cause major flooding, and the storms themselves are becoming larger and more frequent (another attribute of climate change). One specific example is a small family’s experience dealing with their destroyed home (after Sandy) in Long Beach, NY (nytimes.com). Long Beach is just south of Long Island (which is very close to NYC), so this information could be compared to damages that NYC residence will experience in the next 80 years. A woman named Kathy Fitzgerald and her daughter Megan were forced to retreat from their home during Hurricane Sandy. From there, they lived “in limbo” in rental apartments in another town. More than half of her house’s value was gone, and her homeowner’s insurance didn’t cover flood damage. After struggling back and forth with the insurance company, she ended up paying $11,500 to have the rest of it torn down. She was among 30,000 residents of New York and New Jersey who were displaced by the storm.
Just like during and after Superstorm Sandy, it is true that residents of New York City will be displaced as the sea levels continue to rise. But, does this make them climate refugees? According to the UNHCR (the United Nations Refugee Agency), the term “climate refugee” is often misunderstood. The term actually doesn’t exist in international law and is mainly used in the media. A refugee is a “person who has crossed an international border ‘owing to well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion.” The website stated that climate change usually causes internal displacement inside a country (or state in this case) before it moves people outside their country’s borders. The UNHCR does not endorse the term “climate refugee”, and prefers to call these people “persons displaced in the context of disaster and climate change”. This alternative definition would apply to the residents of New York City as the sea levels rise to 6.6 feet by 2100.
In order to have a comprehensive understanding of this scenario, it is important to understand the four main causes of sea level rise. The main contributors are ice melting from the land (and falling into the ocean), warming waters, slowing of the Gulf Stream, and sinking land. The Gulf Stream and sinking land effect only some areas, while ice melt and warming waters are global issues.
Over 1,700 trillion pounds of glacial ice melts from the land into the sea each year. This can be visualized by picturing 800,000 empire state building sized pieces of ice falling into the ocean. Ice melt causes two-thirds of the seal level rise globally. Antarctica and Greenland are the largest source of the ice melt, with Antarctica being the most dangerous (it contains 90% of the Earth’s ice). This is different from existing ocean ice melting back into the ocean. It can also be visualized by imagining two glasses of water. A glass with ice in it will not have an increase in the water level when the ice melts because the ice was already taking up space in the glass. However, the water level would go up if a piece of ice were placed on an above platform, allowing it to slowly melt and drip into the glass. This is because that ice was not part of the water body previously. Antarctica and Greenland are like the latter example because they are adding water to the ocean that was not previously there, causing the sea level to rise.
(Each Empire State building figure represents 50,000 buildings, which is 105 billion pounds)
Warming water is responsible for one-third of the sea level rise. Its technical term is thermal expansion. The warmth actually causes the water to expand, therefore raising the sea level. This works similarly to the liquid in a thermometer, which shoots upwards when the environment gets hotter. The ocean is 1.2 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than it was in 1950. It has caused sea levels to rise 75% faster over the last 10 years.
Sinking land affects specific areas around the world. When the ground sinks lower, naturally the area’s sea levels become higher because the land is closer in proximity to the water. Eighty percent of sinking land can be attributed to groundwater pumping. Tectonic plates also move the “fastest” on the east coast. The oceanic plate moves underneath the land plate, causing the land there to sink lower. On the east coast, the land sinks one inch every 5 to 10 years.
Lastly, the Gulf Stream moves water around the world’s oceans like a conveyer belt. Part of what it does is pull amounts of water away from the East Coast. But, since it is slowing down, it’s taking less water away from that area and allowing it to pile up. This has already caused the sea level to rise in areas such as Florida. The freshwater that is melting from glacial areas (like Antarctica and Greenland) have disrupted the balance of the Gulf Stream. Freshwater (lacking in salt) is lighter than ocean water, and doesn’t sink as fast as the salt water, which slows the Gulf Stream. The overall impacts can increase high tide 1 to 3 feet.
Unfortunately, according to the Global Climate Change part of NASA’s website, if the world just stopped emitting greenhouse gases today it wouldn’t mean the rising sea level would magically stop, or even decline enough to be useful. Infact, these effects will still last centuries afterward. Short lived greenhouse gases (methane, for example) can have these effects hundreds of years after they’ve left the atmosphere. It’s “irreversible on human timescales” because of carbon dioxide’s residence time. One way that this alters the sea level is that water heats up from the greenhouse gases and cause thermal expansion (as explained earlier).
In this case, what are our solutions? Coastal communities and areas like New York City must be protected somehow, rather than just accepting this fate and making no further moves. Being proactive can reduce the amount of permanent displacement in the city that would occur by 2100 if the sea level rises 6.6 feet. There are things that can be done on an individual, local, and state& federal levels. SeaLevelRise.org provides 4 actions towards these solutions. First, “every $1 spent on disaster mitigation saves $6 in disaster relief”, so being proactive actually saves money. Second, damaged communities should rebuild their buildings stronger so if disaster strikes again they’ll stand a better chance. Third, more appropriate coastal planning and infrastructure for future buildings to withstand high seas should be implemented. Lastly, we should assess the risks of flooding to create realistic financial plans.
On the individual level homeowners can figure out the property’s flood risk (can be found using a website called FloodiQ.com). Also, regular homeowners insurance doesn’t cover flood damage, so it’s important to get flood insurance. Especially because the average cost of flood damage is $40,000. As mentioned earlier, the family that experienced Superstorm Sandy did not have flood insurance, and that was one of the reasons for their struggle. Another idea is to physically raise equipment such as HVAC systems, plumbing, and elective meters above flood level. But, while community members should take measures to protect their homes, it can get pricey and time consuming.
This is why it should be paired with work from the local, state, and federal government. Seawalls can be built on the coast to decrease the impact of high tides or storms. Old seawalls should also be repaired and heightened. Pumps can be implemented for draining water faster and vacuuming it up off of the streets. On the state/federal level, increasing funding for local infrastructure would be wise to protect against flooding today instead of waiting for disaster to strike (which is more expensive in the long run). Also, providing accurate and updated flood maps and information for communities is important so they can understand their risk and plan accordingly.
(Seawalls built in Manhattan) (Flood water pumps)
There is a clear relationship between what human beings put into the environment and what circulates back to affect our wellbeing and safety in return. Due to climate change, greenhouse gases, and other ways the sea level begins to rise, these “doomsday” examples are not as far away as they might feel. Each of these courses of action and preventative measures can help community members from being displaced permanently since it seems to be impossible to significantly “undo” the damage that has already been done. In only 80 years, areas that seemed untouchable and not comparable to fragile states will experience their own climate change emergency. In New York City, one foot of sea level rising per year for 80 years could morph from a concerning prediction to a reality altering event.
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