For my second extra credit blog, I chose to listen to the Democracy Works podcast titled “Where Do The Parties Go From Here?” The guest brought in for this podcast was Dave Karpf, an associate professor of Media and Public Affairs at George Washington University according to DW. I was interested in listening due to how much each party is going through change and dealing with conflict between moderate and farther left/right factions.
I was slightly disappointed in the podcast for really only delving into Republican Party division, only lightly referencing AOC saying that her and, for example, Chuck Schumer may be in different parties if this were Europe. That said, the Republican division has been far more high-profile and intriguing given the upcoming battle for the 2024 Republican presidential nominee.
Karpf’s first major point was about the 2022 cycle, where the predicted “red wave” didn’t come true; rather it was a “red trickle” as Karpf put it. He mentioned that much of this may have been a result of the overturning of Roe v. Wade, which drew Democrats to the polls in states where abortion measures and abortion-focused candidates were on the ballot. He stated that in states where this wasn’t as much of the case, Republicans did do well as is expected for the party not in the White House at the midterms. However, election deniers tended not to fare as well.
One of the hosts mentioned that 60% of election deniers won in 2022 (unclear on the source), but considering the predicted red wave that may be lower than many expected. Karpf pointed out that it was a generally unpopular opinion among voters, which contributed to the red trickle instead. He pointed out higher-profile election deniers that lost, mainly Kari Lake and Doug Mastriano, who both ran in states that typically are swings. Mastriano especially was blown out in PA, proving that strong anti-abortion and election-denying positions are unpopular in this state.
The hosts and Karpf also discuss the split between “Trumpism” and more moderate factions in the Republican Party. It wasn’t too delved into in the podcast, but Trump-backed candidates didn’t fare too well in swing states in 2022, and that’s a sign that his support may actually bring candidates down, depending on the state. Karpf talked about how eventually the Republican Party will need to choose what it becomes, going in either the Trump direction or swinging back to the Liz Cheney direction, a more moderate Republican he mentioned.
One piece of that discussion I found interesting was how Karpf said the Cheney-types won’t be relevant again until they can get more people on their side. A specific line he used was “There’s 20 of you, like, call us when they’re 200,000.” He makes a good point; it isn’t possible to adjust your party’s stances as the minority within that party. He specifically said the Republicans may need to lose in 2024 to have a shot at being brought back more towards the center, because they need to see that the current Trump-style strategies are no longer effective like they were in 2016.