Thursday Night Football fantasy football preview: New York Jets at Cleveland Browns

(Left) Associated Press/Paul Sancya
(Right) USA TODAY Sports/Scott R. Galvin

While the Browns broke their 17-game losing streak in Week 1 with a 21-21 tie against the Pittsburgh Steelers, their winless streak still stretches back to Christmas Eve 2016. Believe it or not, they actually could be 2-0 if not for some special teams folies, but a 0-1-1 is most certainly more in line with the rest of the Hue Jackson era.

Rookie quarterback Sam Darnold and the Jets had plenty of hype following their 48-17 demolition of the Detroit Lions in Week 1, but they quickly fell back to earth with a 20-12 loss to their fellow AFC East foe, the Miami Dolphins. New York will be looking for their first 2-1 start since 2015.

For our Thursday Night Football preview, we decided to do what fantasy football players do best: draft teams. We selected players from tonight’s game and will see which one of us scores the most points, highlighting whether any one of them belongs in your season-long fantasy lineups. For this week, we will be using standard (non-PPR) scoring.

If two of you would like to play against another PFS reader, we set up a head-to-head matchup on Fantrax. The draft for the head-to-head contest is at 7:00pm. The game kicks off at 8:20pm.

Teams

Postition Mallet Mike
QB Tyrod Taylor Sam Darnold
RB Isaiah Crowell Carlos Hyde
RB Duke Johnson Jr. Bilal Powell
WR Jarvis Landry Robby Anderson
WR Quincy Enunwa Antonio Callaway
TE Chris Herndon David Njoku
K Jason Myers Greg Joseph
D/ST Jets D/ST Browns D/ST

By Round

Pick Mallet Mike
1 Jarvis Landry Carlos Hyde
2 Isaiah Crowell Robby Anderson
3 Quincy Enunwa Bilal Powell
4 Tyrod Taylor David Njoku
5 Duke Johnson Jr. Browns D/ST
6 Chris Herndon Greg Joseph
7 Jets D/ST Sam Darnold
8 Jason Myers Antonio Callaway

Round 1

1) Jarvis Landry

The most relevant fantasy entity tonight, Landry has caught 12 balls thus far for 175 receiving yards. His 22 targets are good for 10th best in the league.

On the surface, the matchup for Landry against the Jets pass defense looks fairly favorable. While the Jets have a league-high 5 interceptions and have allowed just 211 passing yards per game, the passing defense has not been truly tested, having been the beneficiary of poor game-planning by the Lions in Week 1 and the culprit of a 20-0 deficit against the Dolphins in Week 2.

A lingering knee injury is a slight cause for concern heading into tonight, but all signs point to him making the start. Landry owners should expect 10+ targets and a WR2 level production.

Mallet

2) Carlos Hyde

Hyde has reached double digit fantasy points in the first two weeks, but that is mainly because he has fallen into the end zone from one yard out in each outing. He is averaging just 2.8 yards per carry through 38 attempts with a long of just seven yards.

Despite his incredible inefficiency, backup Nick Chubb has only received five carries on seven offensive snaps, so it does not seem as though Hyde’s job is in immediate danger. In standard scoring leagues, Hyde’s volume alone makes it likely that he will find pay dirt once again, so long as the Browns’ have less obvious obvious offensive signals than the Lions.

Mike

Round 2

3) Robby Anderson

This pick should have been Qunicy Enunwa. I made all picks under duress and this was the biggest flub. My current apartment does not have internet and I maxed out my data on my phone for the month. I had this vague recollection of Anderson having done well recently. I need a better recollection.

Anderson has an uphill battle ahead of him if he expects to repeat his 941 yard, 7 touchdown 2017 campaign. He has been targeted just six times through two games, less than not only Enunwa but also Terrelle Pryor. He had outsnapped Pryor in both games, so maybe, just maybe Anderson can reel in a deep bomb and make this second round pick worth it.

Mike

4) Isaiah Crowell

It is a redemption matchup for Crowell on Thursday night. After four uneventful seasons in Cleveland, Crowell was acquired by the Jets this past offseason. He burst onto the scene with the Jets in Week 1, rushing for two touchdowns and 102 yards against a very poor Lions rush defense. He followed that up with a dud against the Dolphins, though he did become a victim of game script as the Jets’ deficit grew in the first half.

Crowell has more value in standard scoring leagues than in PPR formats since he cedes most passing down work to Bilal Powell. In a “revenge” game, he could be in line for a few extra carries that could help him find the end zone.

Mallet

Round 3

5) Quincy Enunwa

Enunwa’s stock has skyrocketed since the start of the season. The 71st WR taken in an average fantasy football draft, largely due to the combination of inconsistent play when he was healthy and missing the entire 2017 season with a neck injury, he is the consensus WR26 this week in both standard and PPR leagues.

Enunwa has had two very consistent weeks, catching more than 6 and 7 passes in the first two games of the year on 21 targets while registering one touchdown. Given his target share, he is severely underowned in ESPN and Yahoo leagues (62% and 66%), respectively. The Browns defense presents a respectable challenge for the Jets receiving corp, but Enumwa should get enough work to justify a WR2 start in fantasy.

Mallet

6) Bilal Powell

In Week 1, Powell out-snapped (58 to 55) and out-touched (13 to 10) Crowell, but has overshadowed by the latter’s 102-yard, two-touchdown, performance in the Jets 48-17 rout of the Lions. Then, in Week 2, Powell became an integral part of the Jets’ passing game in the second half as they were attempting to rally from a 20-0 halftime deficit He recorded two 20+ yard receptions, one of which went for 6.

It is reasonable to expect Powell to receive at least 10+ touches per game going forward due to his versatility, a healthy volume that give him as good a chance at finding the end zone as many players in this game. He has a little more value in PPR formats , but still warrants flex discussion in standard scoring leagues. He is the consensus RB33 this week among the top 10 most accurate experts to-date on FantasyPros).

Mike

Round 4

7) David Njoku

The good: Njoku has been targeted seven times in each of the first two games, showing that the Browns expect him to be a major part of their passing game. The bad: he had just seven catches for 33 yards total. The ugly: his case of the drops has carried over from the preseason.

Given that the Browns just traded Josh Gordon to the Patriots, it stands to reason that Njoku could be in line for even more work as long as his hands improve. Until he does that, he falls into the touchdown-or-bust tight end mold.

Mike

8) Tyrod Taylor

The man under center for the Browns (at least for now) has been tough to figure out this year from a fantasy perspective. His value as a rusher shined in Week 1 with 77 rush yards and a rushing TD. In Week 2, though, his 47-yard touchdown to Antonio Callway in the 90 seconds helped him salvage a 15.4 fantasy point outing.

In addition to Taylor rushing ability, he has traditionally held value has a passer that throws very few interceptions. His career high in a season is just six, but he already has two this season. Nevertheless, Taylor’s risk-averse passing make him an uninspiring play in most fantasy leagues even factoring in his rushing ability. Among the two quarterbacks playing tonight, however, he has the edge.

Mallet

Round 5

9) Duke Johnson Jr.

Typically a solid PPR asset, Johnson has been almost non-existent in the first two weeks for the Browns offense with only three receptions and eight rushing attempts.

Browns coach Hue Jackson said this week that Johnson needs to get more touches going forward, so he could be in line for a breakout this week. He remains a flex worthy play in most PPR formats, but he belongs squarely on your bench in standard leagues.

Mallet

10) Browns D/ST

With Mallet having filled his QB, RB, and WR positions, it was time to take either a kicker or a D/ST. While the Jets D/ST has scored the most points through two weeks, they are being buoyed by knowing the Lions’ offensive signals in Week 1, turning that advantage into five interceptions and two touchdowns.

The Browns D/ST has had success that appears to be more sustainable. This unit has seven sacks over the first two games, including three against the best offensive line in football in the New Orleans Saints. The Jets rank 19th in Pro Football Focus’ metrics. Combine that ranking with a rookie quarterback and the Browns actually appear to have a solid fantasy floor.

Mike

Round 6

11) Greg Joseph

The rookie from Florida Atlantic University had a solid preseason for the Miami Dolphins, going 3 for 3 on field goals and 2 for 2 on extra points, but ultimately lost the position battle to 7th round pick Jason Sanders. He was signed this week after the Browns cut the struggling Zane Gonzalez, who was dealing with groin injury, unbeknownst to the Browns, when he missed three field goals and two extra points in the first two weeks. Those points are the difference between the Browns being 2-0 instead of their actual record 0-1-1. Time will tell whether the kicking change reversed Cleveland’s fortunes.

Mike

12) Chris Herndon

Could you have named a single Jets tight end before reading this article? I couldn’t.

Herndon is the highest ranked Jets tight end this week at consensus TE45, so we should all be forgiven for not having him on the our radar. The rookie out of Miami (FL) was targeted four times and recorded 30 yards last week, but fumbled a ball near the goal line that cost the Jets points before the half. Expect him to split reps with Eric Tomlinson (TE49).

Mallet

Round 7

13) Jets D/ST

The Jets defense is definitely 2nd best out of the two defenses in the Thursday Night game but there is a good amount of upside in this matchup against a Browns team that has allowed 8 points to opposing fantasy defenses. Tyrod Taylor already has thrown 2 interceptions this year which is on pace to obliterate his former career high total of 6 in one season. Browns’ quarterbacks turn the ball over and so far Taylor has fit the trend.

The Browns are not exactly a well oiled machine on offense and there will always be a chance for turnovers and sacks for the opposing defense which make the Jets D/ST a viable option in all fantasy formats.

Mallet

14) Sam Darnold

Darnold has done some nice things during his first two NFL starts, but his interception issues from his college days at USC are still readily apparent. Take his first career pass, a pick 6 in which he attempted to throw the ball all the way back across the field during a broken play.

While he did record 334 yards in Week 2 against the Dolphins, 80% of that production came after the Jets went down 20-0. His value his basically only resigned to dynasty leagues until he demonstrates improved decision making abilities.

Mike

Round 8

15) Antonio Callaway

Considering I butchered my first WR pick, I took my chances on the high variance play of Callaway over the safe, but low ceiling Rashard Higgins and the possibly resurgent Terrelle Pryor.

Callaway bounced back from a target-less Week 1 to haul in 3 of 4 targets for 81 yards in Week 2, which included a game-tying 47-yard touchdown with 1:16 remaining in the game. The rookie out of Florida with 4.41 speed will have the opportunity to step into the role vacated by Josh Gordon. Additionally, Jarvis Landry has been dealing with knee issues all week, so Callaway could end up playing the WR1 role for Cleveland tonight.

Mike

16) Jason Myers

Myers’ banner year was 2016, where he buried the most field goals from 50+ yards in the league as a member of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Since then, though, he has been cut by the Jaguars in the middle of the 2017 season and lost the position battle in Seattle to Sebastian Janikowski in the preseason this year.

Myers is 6 for 7 on PATs this year thanks to the Jets scoring outburst in Week 1. Additionally, he is a perfect 4 for 4 on field goals, which includes a 55-yarder. He buried a 58-yarder in preseason action as well, which should give fantasy owners some confidence when he gets opportunities. If the Browns defense continues to perform well, however, those opportunities may be few and far between.

Mallet

Best Undrafted

Terrelle Pyror
Rishard Higgins

Fantasy baseball playoffs first round scoreboard

PFS

Quad-A Paradise has clinched a spot in the semifinals thanks to a 2-0 sweep over #7 McCarthy.

The other three first round matchups are headed to a Game 3. #8 Tischendorf put up a postseason high 60 to top #1 Scranton Stranglers to tie the series at 1-1. Both #3 Gabe’s Bench Press and #5 Weaver eked out narrow wins to do likewise.

FanGraphs’ SaberSim projections will be used to predict each day’s games. To see a player-by-player breakdown of the projections for Saturday’s games, see the spreadsheet below.

Fantrax League Page
Full Projections

Fantasy baseball playoffs first round scoreboard

PFS

FanGraphs’ SaberSim projections will be used to predict each day’s games. To see a player-by-player breakdown of the projections for Saturday’s games, see the spreadsheet below.

Fantrax League Page
Full Projections

Fantasy baseball first round playoff matchup previews

NBC Sports
NBC Sports

The first round of the PFS fantasy baseball starts tonight. Each round of the playoffs will consist of a three-game series, played on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday just like the regular season. The higher ranked team gets home-field advantage in Games 1 and 3, while the lower ranked team gets home-field in Game 2. Home-field advantage will only come into play, though, if the game on that day ends in a tie.

FanGraphs’ SaberSim projections will be used to predict each day’s games. To see a player-by-player breakdown of the projections for Friday’s games, see the spreadsheet below.

Full Projections

Opening PFS IM Softball game is at 7:30pm tonight

The PFS intramural softball team, named “Bust Mode”, will play its opening game tonight at 7:30pm at the Intramural Fields.

Please be at the fields by 7:00pm to ensure that the team has a full complement of players for the game.

You can still sign up to be on the PFS softball team. Go to Penn State’s IM Sports website, find “Softball”, click “Open”, then find the team “Bust Mode.” Complete the online quiz when prompted. Once you get a 100% on the quiz, our captain will confirm your request to join the team.

Here are some things to remember to bring with you to IM softball games:

– Your PSU ID
– White and colored shirts with a number on the back (for our colored shirts, PFS traditionally uses jerseys from professional sports teams)
– Non-metal cleats (the grass at the IM Fields gets very slippery)
– A baseball/softball glove

A full IM Softball rule book can be found in the PDF below.

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The PFS fantasy baseball season in three pictures

The eight-team PFS fantasy baseball playoffs are set. Each round of the playoffs will consist of a three-game series, played on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday just like the regular season. The higher ranked team gets home-field advantage in Games 1 and 3, while the lower ranked team gets home-field in Game 2. Home-field advantage will only come into play, though, if the game on that day ends in a tie.

Before turning our attention to the playoffs, let’s take a look back on the regular season. The graphs and table below tell the whole story of the league: how each team progressed in the standings, how their rank fluctuated throughout the year, and how they finished based on their calculated win expectancy.

Standings

PFS

League Rank

PFS

Pythagorean Win Expectation

PFS

PFS Fantasy Baseball Race to the Playoffs – Final Day

PFS

Today marks the end of the PFS fantasy baseball regular season. Since the final weekend started, two more teams have clinched playoff berths, while one team has been eliminated. The 8th and final playoff spot will be decided today, while some playoff positions can also change hands.

Clinched

1) Scranton Stranglers – The Stranglers clinched the top seed on Friday with a win over the Monsters and losses by both Paradise and Bench Press. They have had possession of the top seed since Game 32.

2) Quad-A Paradise – Paradise has had at least a 3 game cushion on a playoff spot since Week 9. They had a been in line for the 2 seed until they were caught by Bench Press. They have reclaimed the two seed this weekend, though. To hold onto it, they need a win or a Bench Press loss because they dropped 2 of 3 games in their series against Bench Press in late June.

3) Gabe’s Bench Press – Sitting at just 1.5 games up on a playoff spot after Game 43, Bench Press gained 7.5 games and jumped from the 5 seed to the 2 seed. They slipped back to the 3 seed this weekend, but that is the lowest the highest scoring in the league can finish.

4) Rhys Lightning – Lightning clinched a playoff spot with a 34-25 win last Sunday over the Monsters. They are still locked in a fight with Weaver for the 4th seed and home field advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

5) Weaver – Weaver has clinched at least the 5th seed. They do not have the tiebreaker over Lightning, so they will need to win today and have Lightning lose to jump them. An additional challenge for Weaver is their matchup against #3 Paradise, while Lightning faces #12 Polacheck.

6) Hate Us ‘Cause Yoenis – H.U.C.Y took the first two games of their series against Janik to not only clinch a playoff birth, but jump all the way up to the 6th seed.

7) McCarthy – Despite being in the midst of a six-game losing streak, McCarthy clinched a playoff birth yesterday when the Monsters lost to the Stranglers. They can reach the 6th seed if they win today and H.U.C.Y loses to Janik.

In Contention

8) Tischendorf – Win and they are in. Lose and they have to hope that the Monsters lose the the #1 Scranton Stranglers.

9) Monongahela Monsters – Lose and they are done. Win and they need help from Ban Bob Nutting, who has beaten Tischendorf in the first two games of the series.

Eliminated

10) Team srauco – Tied for 8th after 50 games, Srauco dropped 11 of 13 near the end of the season to fall out of playoff contention. A 44-26 loss to last place Max Moroff MVP was the final dagger.

11) Ban Bob Nutting – BBN went on a little run around Week 18 to cut their deficit for a playoff spot to 2.5 games. A three-game sweep at the hands of H.U.C.Y, though, last weekend halted their momentum.

12) Polacheck – The odds were stacked against Polacheck at the start of the week to make the playoffs. The final bits of hope tumbled away on Friday with a 57-20 loss to the Lightning as well as H.U.C.Y’s win over Janik. Despite being in the top half of the league in point for, facing the 3rd hardest schedule in the league did them in.

13) Doc Halladay’s Patients – Even though the Patients assured themselves of a losing record after Game 50, they went on a 6-1 run to give a tiny bit of spice to their end-of-season prospects. They were officially eliminated after Game 60.

14) Janik – At Game 29, Janik held the 6th seed. At Game 40, Janik was still tied for the 8th seed. Since then, though, this team has gone 6-15-2 to spiral all the way down to the bottom quarter of the league. A tight 48-44 loss at the hands of #5 Weaver officially ended their season.

15) Arrieta SZN – Arrieta SZN’s season was similar to that of Janik’s: promising to about the mid-point, then a late season swoon doomed their postseason aspirations. They were sitting in 8th place at 17-17-1, but have gone 7-21 since then. They were officially eliminated after Game 59.

16) Max Moroff MVP – MVP has not been out of the league basement since Game 35. They were officially eliminated after Game 57, though their chances of getting back above 0.500 were halted back in Game 47.

PFS Fantasy Baseball Race to the Playoffs – Week 21

PFS

The PFS fantasy baseball league is in its final week. Five teams have clinched playoff berths, while four more teams are battling for the last three spots.

Clinched

1) Scranton Stranglers – Magic number is 2 to clinch the top seed. The Stranglers have had possession of the top seed since Game 32.

2) Gabe’s Bench Press – Sitting at just 1.5 games up on a playoff spot after Game 43, Bench Press has gained 7.5 games and jumped from the 5 seed to the 2 seed. They are the highest scoring in the league.

3) Quad-A Paradise – Paradise has had at least a 3 game cushion on a playoff spot since Week 9. They had a been in line for the 2 seed until they were caught by Bench Press. Paradise is the currently the 3 seed because they dropped 2 of 3 games in their series against Bench Press in late June.

4) Rhys Lightning – Lightning clinched a playoff spot with a 34-25 win this past Sunday over the Monongahela Monsters. They cannot catch Paradise for the 3 seed, but the 4 seed would still get them home field advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

5) Weaver – Weaver has clinched at least the 5th seed thanks to both a 3 game lead and a 4-2 head-to-head advantage over McCarthy. They do not have the tiebreaker over Lightning, so they fill need to completely overcome the 0.5 game deficit to take home field advantage. An additional challenge for Weaver is their matchup against #3 Paradise, while Lightning faces #10 Polacheck.

In Contention

Head-to-Head Records

vs. McCarthy vs. Tischendorf vs. H.U.C.Y vs. Monsters
McCarthy 2-1 3-0 4-2
Tischendorf 1-2 1-2 1-2
H.U.C.Y 0-3 2-1 3-0
Monsters 2-4 2-1 0-3

6) McCarthy – McCarthy holds tiebreakers over the other three contending teams. A four game losing streak and losing 7 of their last 9, though, has put their playoff position in a more precarious position than they would have liked. They face the #11 Team srauco in the final weekend.

7) Tischendorf – The contending team most behind the 8-ball in terms of tiebreakers, Tischendorf will be holding on for dear life in his matchup this week against #12 Ban Bob Nutting. They have never been more than 3 games away from the cut line the whole season.

8) Hate Us ‘Cause Yoenis – A 3.5 game leap over the last 13 games propelled H.U.C.Y from 11th place to the final playoff berth. Being swept last week by a red hot Bench Press team slowed their progress, but an easier matchup (on paper) against #13 Janik could keep their season alive.

9) Monongahela Monsters – Currently outside looking in, the Monsters face the daunting task of needing to beat the top seed Stranglers, who would like to maintain that position. They will need to win one more game than either Tischendorf or H.U.C.Y to make the playoffs.

10) Polacheck – The mountain for Polacheck to climb to make the playoffs might be taller than Everest. In terms of things they can control, they need to sweep #4 Lightning. Then, they need for H.U.C.Y to get swept by #13 Janik. Then, they need to overcome a 2.5 game deficit over the Monsters (they split the season series 3-3 with the Monster and have a sizable lead in points for, so they have that going for them, which is nice).

Eliminated

11) Team srauco – Tied for 8th after 50 games, Srauco has dropped 11 of their 13 to fall out of playoff contention. A 44-26 loss to last place Max Moroff MVP was the final dagger.

12) Ban Bob Nutting – BBN went on a little run around Week 18 to cut their deficit for a playoff spot to 2.5 games. A three-game sweep at the hands of H.U.C.Y, though, last weekend halted their momentum.

13) Janik – At Game 29, Janik held the 6th seed. At Game 40, Janik was still tied for the 8th seed. Since then, though, this team has gone 6-15-2 to spiral all the way down to the bottom quarter of the league. A tight 48-44 loss at the hands of #5 Weaver officially ended their season.

14) Doc Halladay’s Patients – Even though the Patients assured themselves of a losing record after Game 50, they went on a 6-1 run to give a tiny bit of spice to their end-of-season prospects. They were officially eliminated after Game 60.

15) Arrieta SZN – Arrieta SZN’s season was similar to that of Janik’s: promising to about the mid-point, then a late season swoon doomed their postseason aspirations. They were sitting in 8th place at 17-17-1, but have gone 7-21 since then. They were officially eliminated after Game 59.

16) Max Moroff MVP – MVP has not been out of the league basement since Game 35. They were officially eliminated after Game 57, though their chances of getting back above 0.500 were halted back in Game 47.

PFS Fantasy NFL Football League Information

Getty Images

The PFS fantasy NFL fantasy football league enters its fourth season this year. The first league PFS ever sponsored was a humble and awkward 13-man league. Over the past two seasons, though, we have had 30+ members and hope to continue to push that number higher this year.

Registration for the league closes at 8pm tonight (Thursday, August 30). Please go to the registration page on the PFS website and fill out the form.

At PFS, we raise money for philanthropic organizations through fantasy sports. We ask that each league member donate $10 to the league. All of the money that we collect will then be donated to a charity chosen by the overall winner. To make your donation, click the button below or come to a PFS meeting on Wednesdays at 7pm in 220 Willard Building.


League Format

Scoring

Each division will be scored using a Head-to-Head Points-based format. The league will be standard (non-PPR) scoring. Points are accumulated based on offensive, defensive/special teams, kicking statistics. More scoring details will be released soon after the registration deadline.

Rosters

The roster requirements will be released soon after the registration deadline.

Setting a Lineup

Lineups will become locked 5 minutes before the start of each individual player’s game. For example, if Player A has a game at 1:00 PM and Player B has a game at 4:05 PM, Player A will be locked into their spot on the roster (starter or bench) at 12:55 PM while Player B will not be locked into their spot until 4:00 PM.

Acquisition Rules

A free agent acquisition budget (FAAB) will be used to claim free agents. Each team will start with a $100 budget. After the start of each player’s game that is a free agent, owners will be able to bid on free agents in $1 increments. A blind bidding system is used. No bids are revealed until the time when all bids are processed, and then only the winning bid (including the bid amount and fantasy team) is displayed. Free agent bids will be processed on Wednesdays at 3:00am. After all the bids are processed, all players remaining in free agency can be added to an owner’s without bidding. This open period occurs until the start of the free agent’s next game and then the bidding process continues. More information can be found below.

Schedule

Regular Season

The league is broken into divisions, ideally each consisting of the same number of teams, but not required. During the regular season, teams only play those within their division. The top teams in each division are given a Week 12 bye into the knockout rounds, while all of the others must survive a one week play-in. The playoffs proceed in a typical 1 v 1 format until a champion is crowned. Please see the results from the two previous seasons for examples.

Standings

Each team will face one team per week. A win, loss or tie will be given to each team each week, depending on who has the most fantasy points.

Standings Tiebreakers

Tiebreakers for the division standings will proceed as follows:

1) Head-to-head record vs. team(s) tied with
2) Most fantasy points for entire season
3) Random selection

Playoffs

At the conclusion of the regular season, the playoffs will proceed as follows:

Week 12: The top x teams in each division at the end of the regular will receive byes in Week 12 to the playoffs (12 teams to playoffs). The next two teams (x+1 and x+2) from each division will be pooled together. Of the teams from this pool, the top 3 scoring teams from Week 12 will make the playoffs (3 teams to playoffs). All the remaining teams from all the divisions will also be pooled together. Of the teams from this pool, the top scoring team from Week 12 will make the playoffs (1 team to playoffs).

At the end of Week 12, 16 teams will advance to Week 13.

Group Week 12 Week 13+
Top x in Each Division BYE Single-elimination tournament
Next Two Teams in Each Division Play other x+1 and x+2 seeded teams If top 3 scorers in Week 12,
single-elimination tournament
All Remaining Teams Play all remaining teams If top scorer in Week 12,
single-elimination tournament

Weeks 13-16: These weeks will consist of a 16 team, single-elimination tournament. Seeding for this tournament will consist of comparing teams regular season records across all divisions. The results from week 12 will not be included, since week 12 is a part of the playoffs. Matchups will have the 1 seed play the 16 seed, the 2 vs. 15, 3 vs. 14, and so on.

Seeding Tiebreakers

Tiebreakers for playoff seeding will proceed as follows:

1) Most fantasy points for the entire regular season
2) Most fantasy points in week 11
3) Most fantasy points in week 10
4) The above procedure will continue until a tie is broken.
5) If all weeks yield the same number of fantasy points, seeding will be done by random selection.

Playoff Matchup Tiebreaker

In the event of a tie in the playoffs, the higher seed will advance to the next round.

Pythagorean Expectations for the PFS Fantasy Baseball League

Click to enlarge.

Bill James, the father of the term “sabermetrics”, developed a remarkably simple formula for estimating a team’s expected winning percentage based solely on the runs each team scored and allowed. Known as the “Pythagorean” formula, the original version is as follows:

\[EXP(W\%)=\frac{(Runs Scored)^2}{(Runs Scored)^2+(Runs Allowed)^2} \]

They key parameter in the formula is the exponent. An exponent of 2 does a very good job at predicting records, but does typically have an error.

Formulas have since been derived to both minimize the error and calculate the exponent on a team-by-team basis. Clay Davenport of Baseball Prospectus developed the following formula for the exponent:

\[Exponent= 1.50\log{\left(\frac{Runs Scored+Runs Allowed}{Games Played}\right)}+0.45 \]

Davenport’s exponent formula was used to calculate the predicted standings for the PFS fantasy baseball league with three game remaining. The predicted record using this formula was compared to the current, actual standings. If the difference between the actual and predicted win totals is a positive number, that suggests that the given team has exceeded expectations and might be subject to negative regression going forward; the opposite is true if the difference is a negative number. With the PFS regular season wrapping up this weekend, though, it roughly serves to see which teams have been lucky/unlucky.