Throughout the 2010s, the Phillies organization was in a lowly place. When Aaron Nola made his debut for Philadelphia in 2015 and delivered a six-inning, one-run performance, there was reason to have hope once again. The LSU product was highly touted before entering the league as MLB’s 28th prospect at the time. Over the next several seasons, Nola would become the ace of the Phillies rotation. Beginning in 2018, he’s been the Opening Day starter for Philly ever since. ‘18 was Nola’s most notable season as he finished the year 3rd in National League Cy Young voting, with an ERA of only 2.37.  Though the team wasn’t reaching the playoffs, the organization came to expect a standard of excellence from their best pitcher in Nola. Nola’s repertoire became household for Phillies fans, enjoying seeing the ace paint the corners with a jumping fastball, and his famous, biting knuckle-curve. He was tallying strikeouts and consistently pitching to a mid-3s ERA as the leader of the staff.

2021 has been a different story for Nola. He’s embodied the term inconsistent. Suffering a loss in ERA production, up to 4.63 which is nearly a run higher than his career average, he maintained a high strikeout and innings pitched rate. All in all, he’s 9-9 with 223Ks – respectable numbers in those respective categories. But something was off with Nola this year as he was allowing more runs. There are two explanations for Nola’s decline in performance – hitters having learned Nola and Nola not executing. Nola was particularly poor in division games where hitters are more likely to have faced him before. Fans of the Phillies can recall many home runs off the bats of division superstars Juan Soto and Ronald Acuna. They’ve seen him a number of times and they’ve learned his stuff – Nola needs to adjust if he wants to get them out again. Nola has also been called out for having flat stuff – many games he simply hasn’t executed his pitches with the same movement that made him successful before. 

Nola has also had a few spectacular outings. He threw a complete game shutout in St. Louis in May, and an 8-inning shutout at Yankee Stadium. His signature performance came on August 21st when he threw an 8.2 inning loss to the San Diego Padres. It personified his season in terms of disappointment. The Phillies led the game 3-1 and let Nola pitch the bottom of the 9th, when he allowed a game-tying home run with 2 outs. Aaron Nola is a fan favorite in Philadelphia, as one of the only homegrown players on the team who’ve been here a bit, and everyone wants to see him back on the right track. But Aaron’s inability this season to get hitters out with consistency has led the organization to consider the prospect of trading him this off-season.