In just ten short days, Iowa Democrats will go to the polls to have their say on who will be the Democratic presidential nominee to face President Trump in the November General Election. Being the first caucus/primary in the nation, Iowa has special importance as the winner of the Iowa Caucus has the ability to gain momentum going into the next primary states including New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, and ultimately Super Tuesday, where the delegate-rich state of California is up for grabs. On the flipside, some would say that a win in Iowa does not necessarily guarantee success in future caucus/primary states, as Iowa demographically is not similar to other states, such as South Carolina and California, and different candidates could have success in those states. Regardless, all of the candidates (except for Michael Bloomberg, who will not be on the ballot in Iowa), are striving to win Iowa and take a lead in the race for the Democratic Nomination.
According to the Real Clear Politics polling average, a political website that averages polls from numerous polling firms, currently shows Joe Biden leading in Iowa, with 21.0 percent of the vote. He is followed by Bernie Sanders at 17.3 percent, Elizabeth Warren at 16.7 percent, Pete Buttigieg at 16.3 percent, and Amy Klobuchar at 8.3 percent to round out the top five. These numbers are not particularly surprising, as Joe Biden has led nationally since the start of his campaign.
However, as we all learned in the 2016 presidential election, polls are a tool used to predict elections and are not always accurate. With this being acknowledged, it is not impossible to see Biden lose Iowa, as Bernie Sanders has developed a strong base of Democratic voters that align with the more progressive wing of the party. If Bernie Sanders can ride the wave of progressive energy while continuing to gain support from former supporters of his progressive counterpart Elizabeth Warren, he certainly has a shot at overtaking Biden.
While one can analyze polls as a means to predict the eventual victor of the Iowa Caucuses, debates, conflicts, and controversies along the campaign trail can also have a lasting impact. One controversy that might have had a significant impact on the race, was between Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, both of which are fighting tooth and nail for the support of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. This controversy began with a leaked report of a conversation between Sanders and Warren, where Sanders allegedly said that a woman could not win the 2020 election. Sanders has denied having this conversation, countering with a video of him from 1988, where he said that a woman could be elected president. Tensions between Sanders and Warren truly boiled over at the end of a Presidential Debate ten days ago, when Elizabeth Warren refused to shake hands with Bernie Sanders, a gesture of respect that is typically done regardless of how nasty a debate that may have transpired. While some Warren supporters may have supported her denial of a handshake, many Bernie Sanders supporters were critical of this move, as some saw it as an attempt to get attention to an already declining Elizabeth Warren campaign. Regardless of what new events will transpire in the political fight for Iowa, one thing is clear; in ten short days we will know the winner of the Hawkeye State.
Fig1. nytimes.com. January 14th, 2020 Democratic Presidential Debate.
Fig2. bostonherald.com. Elizabeth Warren refuses Bernie Sanders handshake.
Due to the unique nature in which Iowa handles its role as the foremast state, I think caucus night this year is going to be highly unpredictable. The highly public and drawn out nature of caucuses separates the Hawkeye State from other primaries. This is especially beneficial for campaigns with passionate supporters and a robust ground game. And because the first round of voting effectively eliminates campaigns that don’t meet the 15% viability threshold, voters’ 2nd choice candidates are going to play an instrumental role in delegate allocation. With over 1600 precincts, even frontrunners like Biden and Sanders are going to be unviable in certain regions of the state, thus creating an opening for other candidates. All that being said, I think we’re going to be shocked by some of the numbers coming out February 3rd, and several campaigns are going to declare unexpected victories come caucus night.