The severe financial problems encountered by restaurants and bars during the COVID pandemic are well known. First, there were percentage-based occupancy limitations in order to promote social distancing, and then off-again/on-again bans on indoor dining. Politicians always cite these challenges to the hospitality industry as part of the debate over special federal funding proposals. Perhaps the much-anticipated rollout of the COVID vaccine offers an opportunity for these establishments to get back in the game more quickly by focusing their businesses in the short term on senior citizens who have been vaccinated.
The priority rules for the COVID vaccinations keep changing and they vary among jurisdictions, but one factor is constant: senior citizens, whether defined as those above 75, 65 or 60, are near or at the front of the line. It is likely that there will be a period of at least several months when it may be relatively safe for vaccinated seniors to go to bars and restaurants, travel, go to theatres and shop so long as they are doing so with seniors and other people who have had both doses of the vaccine.
As with most aspects of the COVID battle, there is confusion about what vaccinated people can do once they receive both doses of the vaccine. It seems that most experts agree that there is still a small chance that vaccinated people could be infected, and it is still unknown whether vaccinated people can infect other people who have not yet been vaccinated.
Most jurisdictions currently permit bars, restaurants and other public facilities to operate but with limited occupancy. The governmental authorities that are responsible for these COVID restrictions may be willing to lift their occupancy restrictions for certain public spaces if the venues restricted their patrons to vaccinated people during specified times. Bars have been doing this for decades—a “bouncer” at the door verifies the age of every person who wants to enter. Restaurants, bars and other hospitality businesses could similarly post a card-checker at the door, and rather than looking for birthdates, the checker could verify vaccination status.
There would inevitably be interpretative questions, such as whether it would be safe to put vaccinated people in one room of a restaurant and unvaccinated people in an adjoining room, and whether a certain amount of time must elapse between respective shifts of vaccinated people and unvaccinated people. However, at a minimum, segregating vaccinated people may allow them to engage in indoor activities that they currently consider unsafe. (There are many people who are concerned about eating indoors regardless of social distancing under current regulations due to the possibility of infection through aerosols.)
Some restaurants and other establishments may conclude that it is not worth their time to focus on vaccinated people. Others may use their imagination, however, to “pivot” towards what may be a significant short-term opportunity. For example, restaurants could offer such inducements as percentage discounts, 2-for-1 entrees and free desserts. In communities that have significant retirement communities, restaurants could offer van services to offer free roundtrip transportation.
In cities and college towns, it is not unusual to have free or discounted transportation services to ferry patrons among restaurants and bars during “bar crawls” and special events. That same practice could work as well if these communities organized transportation services so that vaccinated seniors who lived in clustered environments could visit participating restaurants and other hospitality establishments.
The vaccinated-people market is larger than just vaccinated senior citizens. Depending on the local jurisdiction, the first-priority group has also included healthcare workers, teachers and other public-service workers.
Two obvious issues are whether and to what extent restaurants and other establishments would be willing to restrict their indoor patrons solely to vaccinated people. One solution, for example, would be to designate lunch or dinner for just vaccinated people and the other for the general population subject to the current occupancy guidelines. An easier alternative, subject to “sharing-the-air” preventative measures, would be to bifurcate facilities into “vaccinated areas,” which would be free of social-distancing requirements, and “unvaccinated areas,” which would be subject to the normal indoor-dining restrictions. With the proper precautions, it should be possible to design a protocol under which a hospitality establishment could safely increase their business with vaccinated people while maintaining whatever current level of business that they may have with unvaccinated people in accordance with whatever indoor-patron restrictions apply. When you look at the efforts that some restaurants have put into adding heated “yurts” and other outdoor dining pods, adopting special measures to attract vaccinated people may not be too onerous.
Senior-citizen discounts can be found in diverse markets—movie theatres, museums, restaurants, hotels, cruises and many more. Florida was famous years ago for its omnipresent “early-bird specials” for seniors at restaurants. Although discounted business is obviously not as profitable as non-discounted business, companies have obviously decided to implement discounts or subsidies at times in order to maintain a level of business that covers its marginal costs and contributes to its fixed costs. Implementing a less profitable vaccinated-people program may be a situation that makes financial sense for hospitality establishments while also permitting them to maintain their workforces and patrons until life is truly back to normal, which appears to be more than a few months away.
This post was authored by Tom Sharbaugh, the director of Penn State Law’s Entrepreneur Assistance Clinic, and a professor at the law school.