Friday 9 AM
Panel A (Chair: Susan Allen)
Systemic Uncertainty and the Emergence of Border Disputes
Scott Abramson and David Carter
The Ukraine Crisis: A Trigger for War?
Allison Hamlin and Jacek Kugler
Invisible Digital Front: The logic of cyber and kinetic operations in Ukraine
Nadiya Kostyuk and Yuri Zhukov
Panel B (Chair: Dennis Foster)
Exploring the Microfoundations of Reputation Costs
Ryan Brutger and Joshua Kertzer
You Must Choose, but Choose Wisely: Interstate Conflict and Endogenous Leader Selection
Jeff Carter
Unpacking States: Leaders, Audiences and Crisis Bargaining
Cathy Wu
Panel C (Chair: Marc Hutchison)
Who Is Being Held Responsible for Mass Violence (and Why It Matters)
Jessica Brandwein
Government strength and justice processes during armed conflict
Cyanne E. Loyle and Scott Gates
Domestic Prosecutions for Terrorism in Civil War: Law as a Tool of Counterinsurgency
Jessica Stanton
Friday 11 AM
Panel A (Chair: Andy Owsiak)
Sequencing Peace: Civil War Termination as a Path Dependent Process
Benjamin Jones
The Strategic Spatiality of Civil War Duration
Matthew Lane
Falling to Pieces: Battlefield Outcomes and Rebel Movement Fragmentation
Desirée Nilsson
Panel B (Chair: Renato Corbetta)
A Bargain Might Not Exist: How the Distribution of Power Causes War
Richard Jordan
Why Switching? Inconsistency in Foreign Policy
Eleonora Mattiacci
Hand-Tying versus Muscle-Flexing in Crisis Bargaining
Todd Sechser and Abigail Post
Panel C (Chair: Ashley Leeds)
What Goes Up, Must Come Down? The Asymmetric Effects of International Threat and Economic Growth on Military Spending
Rosella Cappella Zielinski, Benjamin Fordham, and Kaija Schilde
Market Expectations of Interstate Wars: An Analysis of the Effect of War on Yields of Government Bonds
Kyu Young Lee
How does Stalemate Affect Military Spending? Theory and Evidence
Jun Xiang
Friday 2 PM
Panel A (Chair: Carla Martinez Machain)
Military Rule, Rivalry, and Violence
Joonbum Bae
Understanding Paramilitary Violence
Navin Bapat, Lucia Bird, and Chelsea Estancona
Explaining Military Defections in the Context of Anti-Authoritarian Regime Protests
Kara Kingma Neu
Panel B (Chair: Katja Kleinberg)
Economic Sanctions and the Political Economy of Banking Crises
Dursun Peksen and Emre Hatipoglu
The Political-Economic Leverage of Intergovernmental Organizations in Interstate Disputes
Johannes Karreth
The Long-term Effect of Sanctions on Political Violence
Clifton Morgan and Santiago Sosa
Panel C (Chair: Catherine Langlois)
Buying Time: Delaying Conflict and Cooperation
Mark Crescenzi and Stephen Gent
Is There a Norm Cascade on the Laws of War?
James Morrow
State Cooperation with International Criminal Tribunals: An Investigation of International Warrant Enforcement
Emily Ritter and Scott Wolford
Friday 4PM
Panel A (Chair: Zaryab Iqbal)
Post-Conflict Peacekeeping and the Relocation of Conflict
Corinne Bara
Force Composition and Peacekeeper Effectiveness
Jonathan Caverley and Jesse Dillon Savage
Security-Building through Peacekeeping?: UN Peacekeeping and Police Reform in Post-Civil Conflict States
Gabriella Lloyd
United Nations Peacekeeping Shortfalls and Violence in Civil Wars
Megan Shannon, Andrew Hart, and Timothy Passmore
Panel B (Chair: Sam Bell)
Capability Ratios Predict Nothing
Robert Carroll and Brenton Kenkel
Rising Up or Locking In? Modeling Change & Stability in Human Rights Practices
Chad Clay and Daniel Hill
Dynamic Networks of Conflictual Events: The Mexican Criminal Conflict
Cassy Dorff
Militarism from the Outside In: External Threat and Civil Military Relations in Young Democracies
Michael Kenwick
Panel C (Chair: Elizabeth Menninga)
Domestic Terrorism in the Face of Government Mass Violence
Nazli Avdan and Gary Uzonyi
Like moths to the flame: Do aid projects attract transnational terrorism?
Andrew Boutton and Henry Pascoe
Democracy, Discrimination and Domestic Terrorism: An Analysis
Brandon Prins, Aaron Gold, and Sambuddha Ghatak
Reassessing the Link Between Religion and Suicide Terrorism
Matthew Isaacs and Victoria McGroary
Saturday 8:30 AM
Panel A (Chair: Angela Nichols)
Implications of the Foundations of Rebel Groups in Africa
Jessica Maves Braithwaite and Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham
Government Crackdowns, Mass Killings, and the Trajectories of Violent and Nonviolent Uprisings
Erica Chenoweth and Evan Perkoski
Violence, Control and State Legitimacy
Arzu Kıbrıs
Activism and Protest in Authoritarian Regimes
Zachary Steinert-Threlkeld
Panel B (Chair: John Vasquez)
Only the Strong Negotiate: Leader Survival and the Opening of Negotiations during Foreign Counter-Insurgency Wars
Andrew Enterline and Christopher Linebarger
War and Peace in the Shadow of the Future
Casey Crisman-Cox and Michael Gibilisco
Working without a Net: Examining Bilateral Dispute Resolution Settlement
Vanessa Lefler
Who bargains? Social barriers to negotiation in international politics
George Yin
Panel C (Chair: Halvard Buhaug)
Taking Democratic Differences Seriously: A Split-Population Approach
Douglas Gibler and Mark Nieman
Thinking Outside the Alliance: How Major Powers Signal Support for Protégés
Roseanne McManus
Democracies Under Fire: How Targets and Allies Respond to Coercive Threats
Matt Scroggs
Polarization, Decisiveness, and the Pacification of Regions of War
Alex Weisiger
Saturday 11 AM
Panel A (Chair: Richard Stoll)
A Hedge Between: Nuclear Latency, Military Security, and Bargaining
Rupal Mehta
The Religious Characteristics of States Dataset: Classic Themes and New Evidence
Davis Brown and Patrick James
Who’s Afraid of Killer Robots: Autonomous weapon systems and the tradeoff between capital and labor
Michael Horowitz
Panel B (Chair: Jacob Kathman)
(Un)gendered Rallies: Incumbent Voting in the Wake of Militarized Interstate Disputes
Jaroslav Tir
Religious Institutions and the Impact of Inter-Ethnic Inequality on Conflict: the Case of Xinjiang, China
Xun Cao, Haiyan Duan, Chuyu Liu, and Yingjie Wei
Panel C (Chair: Leah Windsor)
Explaining the link between group strength and violence in the Sierra Leone civil war
Emma Leonard Boyle
Rebel Finance and Sexual Violence
Justin Conrad, James Walsh, and Beth Whitaker
The Social Origins of Female Fighters: Examining Women’s Participation in Rebellion, 1980-2009
Reed Wood
Saturday 2 PM
Panel A (Chair: Jeffrey Dixon)
Puppet Regimes, Protests, and Repression: A Model of Biased Third-Party Intervention on the Part of the Government
Olga Chyzh and Elena Labzina
Post-War Electoral Reform and Peace Duration following Negotiated Settlements
Eric Keels
The lotteries of elections and violence: Why actors in post-conflict countries decide to organize electoral violence
Hannah Smidt
Who Governs the State?
Michael Weintraub
Panel B (Chair: Faten Ghosn)
Territorial Chance, Prospect of Victory and Civilian Victimization
Seung Joon Paik
Ethnic Cleansing as Military Strategy: Lessons from Lebanon, 1975-1990
Nils Hagerdal
Killing Two Birds With One Stone: State Repression and Refugees
Shweta Moorthy and Justin Schon
Resentment and Civil War Allegiance Preferences: Evidence from Lebanon
Konstantin Ash
Panel C (Chair: Patricia Sullivan)
The Costs of Silence: Collective Punishment and Intelligence Extortion during the Kenya Emergency
Kristen Harkness
Third-Party Intervention and the Settlement of Self-Determination Conflicts
Rita Konaev
American Counterinsurgency Efforts and Violence against Civilians in Iraq
Matt Wells
Conflict in Africa: Climate, Economic Shocks and Spill-Over Effects
Achim Ahrens
Poster Session
Saturday 4:30 PM
Local Public Goods Expenditure and Ethnic Conflict in Autocracies: Evidence from China
Chuyu Liu
The Effect of Political Violence on Political Partisanship: Evidence from Alabama in the American Civil War
Chris Chiego
Structural Determinants of War Longevity: Modeling Armed Conflict Duration
Gokhan Ciflikli
Vulnerable and Silent: Differential Effects of Acute Insecurity on Survey Response in Somalia (Paper, Tables)
Elaine Denny
Follow the Leader: Rebel Leaders and Anti-Civilian Violence in Civil War
John Willingham and Austin Doctor
The Joint Military Exercises Data: 1970-2010
Vito D’Orazio
Replicating, Validating, and Extending the Measurement of Government Purges
Christopher Fariss, Nick Dietrich, and Sarah Parrott
Credible deterrence? Peacekeeping responses to violence against civilians
Lisa Hultman
Not Naval Arms Races But Naval Targeting
Richard Stoll
Regime Type and Discourse in International Forums
Leah Windsor
Facilitating concessions: legal dispute resolution, domestic political cover, and termination of interstate territorial disputes
David Larsson Gebre-Medhin
Is There More Violence in the Middle?
Zachary Jones and Yonatan Lupu
Religion and Civilian Targeting in Civil Wars
Chris Meserole
Welcoming the Unwelcome: Refugee Flows, Integration, and Political Stability
Burcu Savun and Christian Gineste
Institutional Determinants of Security Provision (Paper)
Alastair Smith and Sukwon Lee
Economic Shocks and Conflict: The Role of Financial Institutions in Reducing Civil War Onset
Babak Rezaee and Cameron Thies
The Devil is in the Details: The Dilemma of Foreign Aid in anti-Americanism
Ihsan Efe Tokdemir
Regulating Ares: Major Power Managerial Coordination and the Status-Quo (Paper)
Konstantinos Travlos
Disinformation and Misinformation: Organizational Self-Assessment in the Military
William Wagstaff
Political Mobilization and Government Targeting: When Do Dissidents Challenge the State?
Idean Salehyan and Brandon Stewart