2015 Conference Presentations Preview

Friday 9 AM

Panel A (Chair: Susan Allen)

Systemic Uncertainty and the Emergence of Border Disputes
Scott Abramson and David Carter

The Ukraine Crisis: A Trigger for War?
Allison Hamlin and Jacek Kugler

Invisible Digital Front: The logic of cyber and kinetic operations in Ukraine
Nadiya Kostyuk and Yuri Zhukov

Panel B (Chair: Dennis Foster)

Exploring the Microfoundations of Reputation Costs
Ryan Brutger and Joshua Kertzer

You Must Choose, but Choose Wisely:  Interstate Conflict and Endogenous Leader Selection
Jeff Carter

Unpacking States: Leaders, Audiences and Crisis Bargaining
Cathy Wu

Panel C (Chair: Marc Hutchison)

Who Is Being Held Responsible for Mass Violence (and Why It Matters)
Jessica Brandwein

Government strength and justice processes during armed conflict
Cyanne E. Loyle and Scott Gates

Domestic Prosecutions for Terrorism in Civil War: Law as a Tool of Counterinsurgency
Jessica Stanton

Friday 11 AM

Panel A (Chair: Andy Owsiak)

Sequencing Peace: Civil War Termination as a Path Dependent Process
Benjamin Jones

The Strategic Spatiality of Civil War Duration
Matthew Lane

Falling to Pieces: Battlefield Outcomes and Rebel Movement Fragmentation
Desirée Nilsson

Panel B (Chair: Renato Corbetta)

A Bargain Might Not Exist: How the Distribution of Power Causes War
Richard Jordan

Why Switching? Inconsistency in Foreign Policy
Eleonora Mattiacci

Hand-Tying versus Muscle-Flexing in Crisis Bargaining
Todd Sechser and Abigail Post

Panel C (Chair: Ashley Leeds)

What Goes Up, Must Come Down? The Asymmetric Effects of International Threat and Economic Growth on Military Spending 
Rosella Cappella Zielinski, Benjamin Fordham, and Kaija Schilde

Market Expectations of Interstate Wars: An Analysis of the Effect of War on Yields of Government Bonds
Kyu Young Lee

How does Stalemate Affect Military Spending? Theory and Evidence
Jun Xiang

Friday 2 PM

Panel A (Chair: Carla Martinez Machain)

Military Rule, Rivalry, and Violence
Joonbum Bae

Understanding Paramilitary Violence
Navin Bapat, Lucia Bird, and Chelsea Estancona

Explaining Military Defections in the Context of Anti-Authoritarian Regime Protests
Kara Kingma Neu

Panel B (Chair: Katja Kleinberg)

Economic Sanctions and the Political Economy of Banking Crises
Dursun Peksen and Emre Hatipoglu

The Political-Economic Leverage of Intergovernmental Organizations in Interstate Disputes
Johannes Karreth

The Long-term Effect of Sanctions on Political Violence
Clifton Morgan and Santiago Sosa

 Panel C (Chair: Catherine Langlois)

Buying Time: Delaying Conflict and Cooperation
Mark Crescenzi and Stephen Gent

Is There a Norm Cascade on the Laws of War?
James Morrow

State Cooperation with International Criminal Tribunals: An Investigation of International Warrant Enforcement
Emily Ritter and Scott Wolford

Friday 4PM

Panel A (Chair: Zaryab Iqbal)

Post-Conflict Peacekeeping and the Relocation of Conflict
Corinne Bara

Force Composition and Peacekeeper Effectiveness
Jonathan Caverley and Jesse Dillon Savage

Security-Building through Peacekeeping?: UN Peacekeeping and Police Reform in Post-Civil Conflict States
Gabriella Lloyd

United Nations Peacekeeping Shortfalls and Violence in Civil Wars
Megan Shannon, Andrew Hart, and Timothy Passmore

Panel B (Chair: Sam Bell)

Capability Ratios Predict Nothing
Robert Carroll and Brenton Kenkel

Rising Up or Locking In?  Modeling Change & Stability in Human Rights Practices
Chad Clay and Daniel Hill

Dynamic Networks of Conflictual Events: The Mexican Criminal Conflict
Cassy Dorff

Militarism from the Outside In: External Threat and Civil Military Relations in Young Democracies
Michael Kenwick

Panel C (Chair: Elizabeth Menninga)

Domestic Terrorism in the Face of Government Mass Violence
Nazli Avdan and Gary Uzonyi

Like moths to the flame: Do aid projects attract transnational terrorism?
Andrew Boutton and Henry Pascoe

Democracy, Discrimination and Domestic Terrorism: An Analysis
Brandon Prins, Aaron Gold, and Sambuddha Ghatak

Reassessing the Link Between Religion and Suicide Terrorism
Matthew Isaacs and Victoria McGroary

Saturday 8:30 AM

Panel A (Chair: Angela Nichols)

Implications of the Foundations of Rebel Groups in Africa
Jessica Maves Braithwaite and Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham

Government Crackdowns, Mass Killings, and the Trajectories of Violent and Nonviolent Uprisings
Erica Chenoweth and Evan Perkoski

Violence, Control and State Legitimacy
Arzu Kıbrıs

Activism and Protest in Authoritarian Regimes
Zachary Steinert-Threlkeld

Panel B (Chair: John Vasquez)

Only the Strong Negotiate: Leader Survival and the Opening of Negotiations during Foreign Counter-Insurgency Wars
Andrew Enterline and Christopher Linebarger

War and Peace in the Shadow of the Future
Casey Crisman-Cox and Michael Gibilisco

Working without a Net: Examining Bilateral Dispute Resolution Settlement
Vanessa Lefler

Who bargains? Social barriers to negotiation in international politics
George Yin

Panel C (Chair: Halvard Buhaug)

Taking Democratic Differences Seriously: A Split-Population Approach
Douglas Gibler and Mark Nieman

Thinking Outside the Alliance: How Major Powers Signal Support for Protégés
Roseanne McManus

Democracies Under Fire: How Targets and Allies Respond to Coercive Threats
Matt Scroggs

Polarization, Decisiveness, and the Pacification of Regions of War
Alex Weisiger

Saturday 11 AM

Panel A (Chair: Richard Stoll)

A Hedge Between: Nuclear Latency, Military Security, and Bargaining
Rupal Mehta

The Religious Characteristics of States Dataset: Classic Themes and New Evidence
Davis Brown and Patrick James

Who’s Afraid of Killer Robots: Autonomous weapon systems and the tradeoff between capital and labor
Michael Horowitz

Panel B (Chair: Jacob Kathman)

(Un)gendered Rallies: Incumbent Voting in the Wake of Militarized Interstate Disputes
Jaroslav Tir

Professionals or Politicians-in-Uniform? Military Representation in National Government and International Conflict
Peter White

Religious Institutions and the Impact of Inter-Ethnic Inequality on Conflict: the Case of Xinjiang, China
Xun Cao, Haiyan Duan, Chuyu Liu, and Yingjie Wei

Panel C (Chair: Leah Windsor)

Explaining the link between group strength and violence in the Sierra Leone civil war
Emma Leonard Boyle

Rebel Finance and Sexual Violence
Justin Conrad, James Walsh, and Beth Whitaker

The Social Origins of Female Fighters: Examining Women’s Participation in Rebellion, 1980-2009
Reed Wood

Saturday 2 PM

Panel A (Chair: Jeffrey Dixon)

Puppet Regimes, Protests, and Repression: A Model of Biased Third-Party Intervention on the Part of the Government
Olga Chyzh and Elena Labzina

Post-War Electoral Reform and Peace Duration following Negotiated Settlements
Eric Keels

The lotteries of elections and violence: Why actors in post-conflict countries decide to organize electoral violence
Hannah Smidt

Who Governs the State?
Michael Weintraub

Panel B (Chair: Faten Ghosn)

Territorial Chance, Prospect of Victory and Civilian Victimization
Seung Joon Paik

Ethnic Cleansing as Military Strategy: Lessons from Lebanon, 1975-1990
Nils Hagerdal

Killing Two Birds With One Stone: State Repression and Refugees
Shweta Moorthy and Justin Schon

Resentment and Civil War Allegiance Preferences: Evidence from Lebanon
Konstantin Ash

Panel C (Chair: Patricia Sullivan)

The Costs of Silence: Collective Punishment and Intelligence Extortion during the Kenya Emergency
Kristen Harkness

Third-Party Intervention and the Settlement of Self-Determination Conflicts
Rita Konaev

American Counterinsurgency Efforts and Violence against Civilians in Iraq
Matt Wells

Conflict in Africa: Climate, Economic Shocks and Spill-Over Effects
Achim Ahrens


Poster Session

Saturday 4:30 PM

Local Public Goods Expenditure and Ethnic Conflict in Autocracies: Evidence from China
Chuyu Liu

The Effect of Political Violence on Political Partisanship: Evidence from Alabama in the American Civil War
Chris Chiego

Structural Determinants of War Longevity: Modeling Armed Conflict Duration
Gokhan Ciflikli

Vulnerable and Silent: Differential Effects of Acute Insecurity on Survey Response in Somalia (Paper, Tables)
Elaine Denny

Follow the Leader:  Rebel Leaders and Anti-Civilian Violence in Civil War
John Willingham and Austin Doctor

The Joint Military Exercises Data: 1970-2010
Vito D’Orazio

Replicating, Validating, and Extending the Measurement of Government Purges
Christopher Fariss, Nick Dietrich, and Sarah Parrott

Credible deterrence? Peacekeeping responses to violence against civilians
Lisa Hultman

Not Naval Arms Races But Naval Targeting
Richard Stoll

Regime Type and Discourse in International Forums
Leah Windsor

Facilitating concessions: legal dispute resolution, domestic political cover, and termination of interstate territorial disputes
David Larsson Gebre-Medhin

Is There More Violence in the Middle?
Zachary Jones and Yonatan Lupu

Religion and Civilian Targeting in Civil Wars
Chris Meserole

Welcoming the Unwelcome: Refugee Flows, Integration, and Political Stability
Burcu Savun and Christian Gineste

Institutional Determinants of Security Provision (Paper)
Alastair Smith and Sukwon Lee

Economic Shocks and Conflict: The Role of Financial Institutions in Reducing Civil War Onset
Babak Rezaee and Cameron Thies

The Devil is in the Details: The Dilemma of Foreign Aid in anti-Americanism
Ihsan Efe Tokdemir

Regulating Ares:  Major Power Managerial Coordination and the Status-Quo (Paper)
Konstantinos Travlos

Disinformation and Misinformation: Organizational Self-Assessment in the Military
William Wagstaff

Political Mobilization and Government Targeting: When Do Dissidents Challenge the State?
Idean Salehyan and Brandon Stewart


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