Myanmar: Sanctions or Suffering?

Myanmar: Sanctions or Suffering? 

Nature of the Situation 

On the morning of February 1st, Myanmar’s Prime Minister Suu Kyi, President Win Myint and other National League for Democracy (NLD) members were arrested during a military coup. Myanmar soldiers shut down roads, turned off international and domestic TV services, d isrupted the Internet and imposed commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing as the country’s new leader (“Myanmar Coup”).  

In November 2020, the country held a general election in which the NLD received 70% of the vote. After performing poorly, the USDP military-backed party claimed fraud, but independent election observers called the election free and fair (“Myanmar Coup”).  

Police Fill the Streets

The United Nations issued a response condemning the army for decimating a budding democracy. Additionally, the UN security council called for the 45 detained officials to be released. Leaders across the free world have denounced the military’s actions, including the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and other EU officials. Myanmar’s neighbors in South Asia–including China–however, have taken a stand-offish approach claiming the situation an “internal matter” (“Myanmar Coup”). 

US-Burmese Relations 

In 2011, a civilian government assumed power when President Aung San Suu Kyi was released after 15 years of military imposed house arrest. Suu Kyi received the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991 but has since suffered international criticism due to her handling of the Rohingya Muslim crisis, a minority group in a vastly ethnic Burmese country. In 2017, the Burmese military, in response to a Rohingya military attack, slaughtered Rohingya’s and burned their villages, forcing 700,000 people across the border into Bangladesh (Kurlantzick). 

 Rohingya refugees fleeing to Bangladesh

Labeled a “textbook example of ethnic cleansing” (“UN Human Rights Chief”) by the UN, Suu Kyi’s international approval has declined and US-Burmese relations have suffered. Human rights and the preservation of democracy remain at the forefront of the American diplomatic conscious making relations difficult and resulting in US-imposed sanctions on the country (Kurlantzick). 

 Prime Minister Aung San Suu Kyi

Historically, the United States has refused to recognize the state’s name, Myanmar (a title established by the military), and has continued to address the country as Burma. In 1998, the first restrictions were imposed in response to the Junta’s violence. However, “The restrictions were gradually eased in response to reforms by Myanmar President Thein Sein and the release of Suu Kyi, and lifted by former US president Barack Obama in 2016” (Yang). In 2019, however, the Trump administration reimposed restrictions in response to the on-going mistreatment of the Rohingyas (Yang). 

Do Sanctions Work? 

According to Adam Roberts, a research fellow at Oxford University, “There are very few cases where you can definitely identify sanctions as having had a success, except sometimes in combination with other factors,” (Marcus). As a frequent tool of international diplomacy, the US has imposed sanctions on multiple states and corporations as a method of punishment without the need for war. Countries on which sanctions have been imposed have often found evaded or ignored them, and, more detrimentally, they frequently do incredible damage to economies (Marcus). 

 Iraqi mother and her children

According to Roberts, “Very often it is the case that the first people to suffer from sanctions are the population generally and the powerful people – the people in the regime – can find ways of getting around sanctions” (Marcus). In Iraq, for example, the civilian population suffered disproportionately from US action leading to increased child mortality among other negative consequences.  

Dan Drezner, a professor of international politics and author of “The Sanctions Paradox,” lays out four criteria for sanctions to have the potential to result in their intended outcome. Drezner says the demand must be specific and the sanctioned country must value its relationship with the imposer. Additionally, financial system sanctions (where said country is cut off from the US financial system) are more effective than product sanctions (which incentivize the black market). Finally, Drezner argues sanctions must have international support to place ample pressure on the sanctioned state (Vanek Smith). 

Will Biden’s Sanctions work? 

The new round of US sanctions is likely to target Min Aung Hlaing and other prominent military officers. Should Suu Kyi be released, however, observers believe these sanctions will be lightened (Wang). However, international observers have noted the sanctions would instead affect the people of Myanmar and the economy (one of the poorest in South Asia). According to a postdoctoral fellow at Xiamen University, “The United States and the West have already imposed sanctions against Myanmar’s military leaders over the Rohingya conflict, so it would be meaningless to take similar action again” (Wang).  

In response to the coup, Biden has claimed the US will “stand up for democracy” and a senior state department official reiterated his statement, stating, “As president Biden has said, we will take action against those responsible, including through a careful review of our current sanctions posture as it relates to Burma’s military leaders and companies associated with them” (Lewis et. al). Additionally, according to Reuters, top generals are already sanctioned under the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act (Lewis et al).  

 Burmese Protesters

“Simply piling more sanctions on the Burmese military won’t solve this problem,” a U.S. diplomat for East Asia in the Obama administration, Daniel Russel said. “Sustained and skillful diplomacy, both bilateral and with partners, is needed to defuse the crisis and to chart a path back to democratic governance and reform in Myanmar.” (Lewis et al).  

As the United States determines the most effective course of action, the people of Myanmar remain under a historically violent military rule. US sanctions, however, are unlikely to have any effect. 

Works Cited 

Kurlantzick, Joshua. “Rohingya Crisis in Myanmar.” Council on Foreign Relations, Council on Foreign Relations, 2 Feb. 2021, www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/rohingya-crisis-myanmar. 

Lewis, Simon, et al. “Biden Threatened Myanmar Sanctions. What Are His Options?” Reuters, Thomson Reuters, 2 Feb. 2021, www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-usa-options-analysis-idUSKBN2A20ES.  

Marcus, Jonathan. “Analysis: Do Economic Sanctions Work?” BBC News, BBC, 26 July 2010, www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-10742109.  

“Myanmar Coup: Aung San Suu Kyi Detained as Military Seizes Control.” BBC News, BBC, 1 Feb. 2021, www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-55882489. 

“UN Human Rights Chief Points to ‘Textbook Example of Ethnic Cleansing’ in Myanmar | | UN News.” UN News, United Nations, 11 Sept. 2017, news.un.org/en/story/2017/09/564622-un-human-rights-chief-points-textbook-example-ethnic-cleansing-myanmar#.WfJRrltSy70.  

Wang, Amber. “What Happens to Myanmar If the US Imposes New Sanctions?” South China Morning Post, South China Morning Post, 3 Feb. 2021, www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3120392/what-happens-myanmar-if-us-imposes-new-sanctions. 

Vanek Smith, Stacey. “Planet Money: Do Sanctions Work?” NPR, Cardiff Garcia Host, NPR, 28 Nov. 2018, https://www.npr.org/transcripts/671672020.