On January 3rd, 2020, around 1:00 AM local time in Baghdad, Iraq, Qasem Soleimani was assassinated. Although you are probably familiar with this past news, you still might be confused on who he really was, why the U.S. had an interest in killing him, and how this effects our presence in the Middle East. Of course for a few days it seemed to be the break out of WWIII. Iran retaliated with drone strikes that hit 2 U.S. military bases in Iraq and it seemed as though the U.S. could initiate an all out war. However, this didn’t happen. Why did it deescalate? What were the intentions from both sides? These are all questions that people continue to investigate and debate as it has been just over a month from the incident.
Background
Qasem Soleimani was the commander of the Iranian Kuds Force, an elite special operations force responsible for operations outside of Iran. He was a major general for 22 years and was extremely well known and liked by his people and considered the 2nd most powerful person in Iran, behind the Ayatollah.
However, he was also regarded as the leader of a terrorist organization by 4 countries, the same group who supposedly killed hundreds or thousands of Americans throughout the Middle East. Why would Iran care about killing Americans? Because of a long history of tensions, to rid Americans of power in the Middle East, and extending their own sphere of influence. There is such a long history and many reasons why this attack ultimately happened, but I will quickly bring up some of the most important reasons.
- Religion: Iran is a fully Shia Theocracy and wants to spread Shia Islam to the rest of the Middle East. Iraq is currently a power vacuum and is basically leaderless. This creates the perfect opportunity for Iran to spread their religious influence into Iraq, but the U.S. has mainly supported Sunni regimes in the past and wants Iraq to decide their government based on the wants on their own people. With the U.S. in the way, Iran faces a major obstacle.
- Influence: Iran wishes to become a major influence in the Middle East, they have (had) a strong economy, a large military, and the resources to become a regional powerhouse. They have been able to do this by fighting proxy wars in other countries but the U.S. has also been involved in these “wars” supporting the other side. This also creates an obstacle.
- Nuclear Power / Weapons: Iran has long sought after obtaining nuclear power and weapons. The rest of the world doesn’t want to see this and in 2015, the U.S. and Iran signed a nuclear deal to limit the amount of nuclear material Iran can make. However, in 2018 President Trump withdrew from this deal and imposed severe sanctions on Iran because they were not fulfilling their part of the deal.
So, after all this you can imagine how the U.S. and Iran don’t like each other. After multiple recent instances of Iran’s bad behavior (killing an American contractor, bombing vessels, attacks on Iraqi/American bases, attack on the U.S. Embassy) the U.S. decided to kill one of the top Iranian generals (Soleimani) and in retaliation, Iran bombed two Iraqi/American bases in Iraq. This attack did not cause any casualties but did demonstrate the tensions between the two countries and brought into question if the U.S. should be staying in the Middle East and if they really should have killed Soleimani.
Killing of Soleimani
While I do not usually agree with the United States getting too deeply involved within another countries internal affairs, I believe this was a different case. No specific evidence was released but according to many sources, including CNN, “the strike was to prevent imminent attacks against the United States”. https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/07/politics/qasem-soleimani-reasons-justifications/index.html He was not a household name, but I do believe in U.S. intelligence and also believe that he has killed hundreds of American soldiers (indirectly). Killing or capturing Soleimani had been considered by presidents in the past but Trump was the only one bold enough to follow through. While the United States can see this as a win, it must also be treaded lightly because of the opportunity for a larger conflict to arise. While we would probably win a war against Iran, it would not be pretty and it is not what would the world needs right now.
U.S. Presence in Middle East
This recent situation builds upon the larger question of whether the U.S. should be involved in the Middle East at all, and if so how much of a presence should they have? Personally, I believe the U.S. has been in the Middle East for too long. Besides the mistakes they made in Iraq, they have helped reduce terrorism, keep governments from the hands of the wrong people, and protected national security but they have also created unnecessary conflict. We don’t want Iran to be a regional power because they are dangerous and have close connections with Syria and Russia but we also don’t want to risk American lives for something irrelevant. According to Times, “The Iraqi government even voted to expel all U.S. forces from the country” https://time.com/5762017/iran-leader-soleimani-martyr-trump/ This shows other countries are getting fed up with this conflict too and want us out. Trump has been in favor to remove U.S. soldiers but our influence and presence seems to never end. As tensions continue to rise in the Middle East, we will have to wait and see how our government decides to take action.
This is such a well written piece. When Soleimani’s assassination first happened, I was honestly confused. I had never heard of this man but I accepted that he must have been a big figure trying to hurt the United States. I believe like you that most likely the US government would not have authorized a kill if there were not good enough reasons to do so. However, the results of the assassination were not my favorite. The fear of WWIII, while maybe unwarranted, were still strong in many hearts. The US and Iran’s relationship might not have dissolved into war but it is still a strong possibility with the increasing tensions. Hopefully, it will not come to that and since things have settled down, it appears we are in the clear, for now.
Looking further ahead into the results of the assassination, did you know that swing state voters seemed to support President Trump’s decision to assassinate Soleimani? States such as Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Georgia, Michigan, and even Pennsylvania all supported Trump’s decision to kill Soleimani. Florida, a key swing state for the 2020 election, had a 51.2% support of the decision when a poll was taken in late January. Even though there is a 3.4% margin of error which means that technically it could be a minority, these results could be very important for the 2020 election.
A Gallup poll had 53% of people approving of the Soleimani strike. Trump’s decisions are always controversial but this shows that the Democratic candidates might be on the wrong side of this debate. Sanders, Biden, and Buttigieg all came out against this decision to assassinate Soleimani claiming that there was no imminent threat. However, with the majority of the American people supporting the decision, this might not have been the smartest move. The only way that a Democratic candidate will beat Trump is if the gain the support of the majority of Americans, especially in the more rural areas and swing states. These swing state voters siding with Trump on this decision could be a bad warning for the future Democratic nominee.
References:
Adam-Kredo. “Poll: Majority of Swing State Voters Approve of Trump’s Killing of Soleimani.” Washington Free Beacon, Washington Free Beacon, 12 Feb. 2020, freebeacon.com/national-security/poll-majority-of-swing-state-voters-approve-of-trumps-killing-of-soleimani/.
I totally agree with your perspective. I also like the additional information that you gave us on the matter. Great insight.
Nicole, I love how you related this news to domestic politics. I thought it was really striking that a swing state like Florida was leaning in favor of Trump’s decision in the assassination. I think this might be something the Trump administration can play off of in the upcoming election. I also liked how you incorporated the public’s opinion on the issue.
Robbie this was a really great post! The way you synthesized all of this information in such a concise and easy way is super impressive! I remember first hearing about this event and I honestly had mixed emotions. One of the first things I did think of is something I learned in a government class in High School. My teacher said often presidents engage in foreign affairs in order to move the public’s eyes off of him and to boost his approval ratings. With the impeachment trial going on, and many democrats claiming that the reasoning/evidence for the assassination was unconvincing, I was hesitant to accept that the assassination was done in good faith. However, beyond that, the main thing I was concerned with, and still am, is that I hope to see that the many conflicts in the Middle East will further deescalate as I believe we have been deeply involved for far too long and this assassination felt like a step in the wrong direction.
Something that I was also interested in was the opinions of American allies in response to this act. In a Times article, it was said that European allies shared similar sentiments in that they agree that there was aggressive threat posed by Soleimani but further conflict is in no one’s interest. Moreover, US’s Middle East allies, such as Saudi Arabia and Israel, both commended US on its actions. Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, stands with Trump’s decision with the assassination but reportedly instructed his ministers to not further discuss the topic in fear that they will face the brunt of the retaliation. The Times article explains though there is a expected fear in the Middle East, especially rooted in Israel, that this attack lacks a “broader US strategy” that would “merely escalate dynamics without restraining Iran’s nuclear program and regional activities”.
US allies’ seem to echo the sentiments of many citizens of the US. Though there is differing opinions on whether the assassination was the best decision, there seems to be an overwhelming anxiety looming among many that expresses the want to hinder any further conflict in the Middle East.
Reference:
https://time.com/5758330/us-allies-respond-qasem-soleimani-assassination/
Brianna, I found it really interesting that Israel agrees with the US assassinating Soleimani. Obviously, Israel being a strong ally to the US and having multiple disagreements with the Middle East makes Israel’s support not prove that the US made the right decision. Soleimani’s assassination has caused tensions to grow but as you said hopefully it will calm down. The Middle East is such a conflict filled area and hopefully some day there will be peace.
BRIANNA!!!! It is very interesting that you point out how some Middle East countries support Trump’s decision, since we are strong allies with them, and probably also feel a little pressured. Although other countries are either allies with Iran, or share the same idea that Americans should be out of the region. The dynamics are always changing so it will be interesting to see how this changes in the next few months