The Science of Conspiracy

Numbers and figures can give rise to suspicious circumstances that seem so unlikely that they are only explicable through conspiracy, curse, or legend.  Often times the most unlikely of probabilities is easily explained, but somehow it still seems fishy.  There are a plethora of examples, most easily referenced are those in music; whether it is the curse of the 9th symphony, or Tupac foreshadowing his death something always seemed off.  However, the most interesting of all, the 27 Club.  With multiple members, all with ominous deaths, the headlining members are Brian Jones, Jimi Hendrix, Janis Joplin, Jim Morrison, Kurt Cobain, and Amy Winehouse.

27

With illustrious careers, and life in the limelight, death could only follow suit for these iconic performers.  I had hoped to crunch some numbers in the Poisson Distribution to see if it truly was randomness or if there is something to this theory.  Unfortunately, Poisson deserves his status as a mathematical genius because I couldn’t figure it out at all.

There are plenty of articles claiming that there is more here than just chance, but they lack scientific evidence and instead citing wild conjecture: “Saturn returns, in astrological terms, every 28 years, marking a life transition. Saturn’s return marks the end of youth and the beginning of maturity”(Astrological Lodge of London).

Fortunately, the CDC keeps meticulous records of all things to satisfy anyone’s morbid curiosity.  To avoid sorting through the 71 pages, flip directly to Table 10 – drug and alcohol induced deaths as well as deaths by firearms, which covers all the big names except Brain Jones’ official cause of death: “death by misadventure.”

Of course musicians, especially those who live the rock lifestyle, dramatically shorten their lifespan through drug and alcohol abuse.  This could also be a reason for the statistical spike among musicians dying at 27.  They were in there prime, the prime of their career, the prime of the party, and died young.  The cluster of fame is simply randomness.

The study shows that there is no statistical anomaly in the deaths of 27 year olds.  However, Charles Cross said it best: “There is, however, no statistical increase of death at 27 among the general population, just famous musicians.”