Month: August 2020

by Mallet James and Kyle Kroboth

In the final installment of our 4-part series where we attempt to rank all 21 perfect games in the modern era using a numbers only approach, we take a look at the most unlikely of all perfect games. In this section, we explore Don Larsen and the 1956 world series, recent names like Dallas Braden and Mark Buehrle, and reveal the perfect game that should have never happened. We introduced our ranking method using Bradley-Terry in our introductory post.

 

5. Dallas Braden vs. Tampa Bay Rays B-T Probability: 3.2 in 100,000

Dallas Braden wasn’t a household name when he threw his perfect game for the Oakland Athletics on Mother’s Day 2010 versus the Tampa Bay Rays, but unlike fellow perfect game thrower Phillip Humber, he was a solid middle of the rotation pitcher. He wasn’t overpowering; he ended the 2010 season with a 5.3 K/9, which he overperformed in his perfect game with six strikeouts, still tied for third lowest of any perfect game. But he compensated for his inability to miss bats with pinpoint control and an ability to induce weak contact: he finished 6th in the MLB in BB/9 and and 16th in the MLB in WHIP. Braden wasn’t elite, but wasn’t quite the stiff that he is often portrayed as.

What made Braden’s perfecto especially unlikely was the composition of the opposing Rays lineup that day. Headlining the Rays’ starting nine were two 2010 All-Stars: prime Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford. People forget just how good those guys were in the late 2000s; Longoria finished 6th in the MVP race and was 11th in the American League in on-base percentage. Crawford landed one spot behind Longoria in the MVP race and even won an outfield Silver Slugger award in his final season in Tampa Bay before the Boston Red Sox signed him to a disastrous 142-million dollar free agent deal in the offseason.

The Rays had depth beyond their headliners as well. Guys like Ben Zobrist, Carlos Pena, and Jason Bartlett each added 2+ wins and got on base at an above average clip. The Rays ended the season with 96 wins and in first place in the AL East, their only division title since their 2008 World Series run. The A’s ended the season at .500.

4. David Cone vs. Montreal Expos B-T Probability: 2.2 in 100,000

David Cone threw the Yankees’ third perfect game on July 18th, 1999 at Yankee Stadium in front of almost 42,000 fans. In 1999 Cone was nearing the end of his 17 year MLB career in which he built a consistently strong resume that featured 5 world series wins, 4 of which came on the back end of his career with the Yankees. He is a Cy Young award winner and 5 time all star so the high unlikelihood of his perfect game coming at a time when he was pitching some of his best, although late in his career, seems like it may have been mostly due to the lineup he faced. Cone though was not all that proficient at keeping runners off base in 1999. His POBP of .320 ranks third highest of any pitcher to have thrown a perfect game and the Expos lineup really wasn’t as bad as you might think.

The Expos team that Cone faced at the time was 33-55 and ended the 99′ season with a 68-94 record, finishing 4th in the NL East. A poor record but mostly due to an inexperienced pitching staff that featured what would end up being a lot of no name guys that averaged an age of 24 years old. The batting lineup was actually quite strong top to bottom at the time and was headlined by a young Vladimir Guerrero.

Vlad was just embarking on a hall of fame career in a 99′ season where he posted a .978 OPS, won his first silver slugger award, and made his first all-star game appearance. Apart from Vlad, the Expo names don’t jump off the paper but there were some serious hitters in the lineup including Rondell White, who put together three straight years with an offensive WAR above 2.5 from 1997-1999. Jose Vidro was in the lineup as well, a solid late 90s, early 2000s infielder who was an all-star 3 out of 4 years from 2000-2003, in 1999 he posted an OBP of .346.

The Expos average OBP against Cone was .332 which is the 4th highest average lineup OBP out of all lineups that have been defeated by a perfect game. .332 would be an above average OBP by today’s standards, it was slightly below the .345 MLB average in 1999 but the Expos lineup, sneaky as it might have been where a formidable opponent for Cone. He navigated his way through the test that they posed and earned his spot quite high up on our list of most unlikely perfect games.

3. Don Larsen vs. Brooklyn Dodgers B-T Probability: 1.8 in 100,000

Larsen threw the most famous perfect game of all time against the Brooklyn Dodgers on October 8th, 1956 in game 5 of the 1956 World Series.

I know what you’re thinking, how is a perfect game thrown in the World Series not the most unlikely perfect game of all time? Larsen’s perfect game is almost unanimously ranked as the greatest perfect game of all time (I think it is too) but as you know by now we are taking a different approach. Certainly we could add some weight to the calculation to account for postseason games, World Series games even; and maybe we should have done just that but when accounting for batter and pitcher performance there are two perfect games that rank slightly ahead in unlikelihood. This takes absolutley nothing away from the feat, it may be one of the few untouchable games of all time but hopefully our take will offer some perspective and make you think a little differently about the best perfect games thrown in the modern era.

World Series or not Larsen faced a stellar Dodgers lineup. It was a lineup headlined by Duke Snider, Jackie Robinson, Gil Hodges, and Roy Campanella to name a few. The Dodgers were 93-61 on the year and outscored their opponents by 119 runs. When you just consider the names involved it may be the best core of a lineup to lose by way of a perfect game of all time. Larsen needed just 97 pitches to get through the Brooklyn lineup three times. He struck out 7 batters, no Dodger struck out more than once, and Jackie Robinson was one of the few Brooklyn Bats not to strike out.

Larsen was a career 81-91 pitcher, pitching for 8 different teams over his 14 year MLB career. He was not the ace that you might think of when you consider a World Series perfect game pitcher, splitting his time between the back end of starting rotations and the bullpen. 1956 ended up being the best year of his career as a starting pitcher, he went 11-5 that year after posting a 3-21 record with the Baltimore Orioles just two years prior. Many of the usual indicators of success are all pretty average marks for Larsen, his ERA+ for his career was 99, right on average, his FIP was 3.94 and he had K/9 of 4.9. The most noteable statistical find when it comes to Larsen’s career is how good of a hitter he was. He had a .242 average with 14 home runs and was used quite often as a pinch hitter.

For what was a fairly pedestrian career as a whole, Larsen’s sparkling perfect game will have his name enshrined in postseason baseball history forever.

2. Mark Buehrle vs. Tampa Bay Rays B-T Probability: 1.7 in 100,000

Mark Buerhle threw his perfect game versus the Tampa Bay Rays on July 23rd, 2009, less than one year before Dallas Braden threw his versus seven out of the same starting nine. How this Rays team is the only one to be perfect gamed twice in less than a year is a mystery: the 2009 Rays had an even higher team OBP than the division winning 2010 squad. Only two teams on the losing end of a perfect game had a higher team OBP than the Rays: the 1922 Tigers versus Charlie Robertson and the 2004 Braves versus Randy Johnson

Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford still had nice seasons in 2009, both finishing in the top 30 of AL OBP. But surprisingly, they were not the guys that got on base most. That award goes to Ben Zobrist, who finished fourth in the American League with an elite OBP of .405. Jason Bartlett was not far behind at .389, good for 12th in the AL. A team full of on-base machines shouldn’t have perfect games thrown against it, making Buehrle’s accomplishment one of the most unlikely in MLB history.

You might expect the number two pitcher on this list to be ineffective or inexperienced, but that was not the case for Buehrle. In fact, Buehrle was in the middle of his tenth out of sixteen seasons and only nine days removed from pitching the third inning of the MLB All-Star Game. He finished the season with an ERA of 3.84: not an elite number, but good enough to be a solid number two or three in a rotation. What really drives Buehrle down the list is his .311 POBP. That’s not a bad number by any stretch, but it ranks 16th out of the 21 pitchers to throw a perfect game, a testament to how good most perfect game pitchers are.

1. Charlie Robertson vs. Detroit Tigers B-T Probability: 0.9 in 100,000

In the most unlikely perfect game of all time Charlie Robertson of the Chicago White Sox shutout the Detroit Tigers on April 30th, 1922 at Navin Field in Detroit.

We’ve talked about POBP and OBP quite a lot throughout the perfect games ranked series and how important it is to consider both sides of the story when considering what truly is an unlikely perfect game. There have been games ranked relatively high on this list due to poor pitching resumes and there have been games ranked just as high due to the strong lineup that a pitcher had to navigate to get all 27 outs. Charlie Robertson’s perfect game is the perfect storm of sorts when it comes to these two elements. It was a brutally tough lineup matching up against a very weak opposing pitcher. Charlie Robertson’s POBP was .332, the 2nd worst among all perfect game pitchers behind only Phillip Humber. He faced a lineup with an OBP of .358, by far the best of any lineup to see a perfect game. That lineup ended up beating out the NL champion Brooklyn Dodgers that Don Larsen faced in the world series by quite a large margin. It is a surprise that Charlie Robertson got one of his 49 MLB career wins against this Tigers team let alone found a way to throw a perfect game against them. I imagine if bets were being made on this game in 1922 there would have been quite a few folks interested in the -1.5 line in favor of the Tigers. There is almost no way this could have happened.

Robertson was an 8 year major leaguer who started upwards of 20 games in only 5 of them. 1922 was his first full year in the big leagues and his perfect game came in just his 5th ever game started. The game and his pitching performance truly came out of nowhere. He shutdown a Tigers lineup that featured some of the games all time greats including winner of the triple crown and hall of famer Ty Cobb. Ty Cobb might be the guy you would choose out of all major league hitters, all time, to pinch hit for your team with two outs left in the 9th to break up a perfect game. Somehow Charlie Robertson found a way to keep him off base 3 times that day. The other hall of famer in the Tigers’ lineup was Harry Heilman who slashed a stunning .356/.432/.598 in 1922.

Ty Cobb is famously known to have complained to the umpires about Robertson possibly doctoring the ball but they investigated his uniform, checked multiple balls, and never ended up finding anything substantial.

Beyond the perfect game, Charlie Robertson achieved basically nothing of note the remainder of his career. His perfect game is certainly the most mind-boggling of all time. He holds the title of most unlikely perfect game, a perfecto that was almost 2x more unlikely than Mark Buerhle’s runner up on this list. Robertson’s perfect game speaks to how random these events are and how anything can happen in major league baseball on any given day which is what makes the game so great.

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References

Baseball Reference. Retrieved from https://www.baseball-reference.com/

Baseball Almanac. Retrieved from https://www.baseball-almanac.com/pitching/piperf.shtml

Fangraphs. Retrieved from https://www.fangraphs.com/

Image Citation

Dallas Braden. Retrieved from https://www.sbnation.com/2010/5/9/1464953/dallas-braden-no-hitter-perfect-game-athletics-vs-rays-2010-score-recap

David Cone. Retrieved from https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/yankees-david-cone-throws-perfect-game-yogi-day-1999-article-1.2294698

Don Larsen. Retrieved from https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/mlb/story/2020-01-01/don-larsen-perfect-game-yankees-1956-world-series-point-loma-high-dies-at-90

Mark Buerhle. Retrieved from https://www.daily-chronicle.com/2019/07/22/same-old-buehrle-former-white-sox-lefty-downplays-perfect-game-ahead-of-anniversary/axjbhi1/

Charlie Robertson. Retrieved from https://theledgesports.com/2015/06/10/ranking-10-best-no-hitters-all-time/mlb-perfect-games-charlie-robertson/

by Mallet James and Kyle Kroboth

In the penultimate installment of our 4-part series where we attempt to rank all 21 perfect games in the modern era using a numbers only approach, we take a closer look at some more of the middle tier likelihood perfect games. In this section, we explore both ends of the perfect spectrum from an ace like Randy Johnson to relative unknown Phillip Humber. We introduced our ranking method using Bradley-Terry in our introductory post.

 

10. Catfish Hunter vs. Minnesota Twins B-T Probability: 6.3 in 100,000

Jim “Catfish” Hunter threw his perfect game for the Oakland Athletics on May 8th, 1968 versus a league average Minnesota Twins team that fielded a formidable 2-3-4 all-star punch of Rod Carew, Harmon Killebrew, and Tony Oliva. Hunter had no problem with Killebrew, who struck out in all three of his at bats amidst an embarrassing season that saw him hit .210 and miss six weeks after tearing his hamstring in the All-Star Game. Carew, the reigning Rookie of the Year, made the All-Star Game as well but fell into a bit of a sophomore slump; his .273/.312/.347 slash line was at or near his career low in each category. Hunter’s perfect game would have been far less likely the following season, in which Carew hit .332 and won the batting title. In 1968, Oliva was putting together another elite year in his underrated career, hitting .289/.357/.477.

Hunter’s perfect game took place in the middle of the “Year of the Pitcher,” the 1968 season that saw pitchers dominate hitters in most statistical categories. Carl Yastrzemski’s .301 batting average remains the lowest ever average for batting title champion, and Oliva’s .289 mark finished third in the league behind him. Bob Gibson had one of what was regarded as one of the most dominant seasons of all time, with a 1.12 ERA and 368 strikeouts. The season led to multiple rule changes going into the 1969 season, including shrinking the strike zone back to 1950s levels and lowering the pitcher’s mound from 15 inches to 10. It is worth noting that Hunter’s perfect game was thrown under the rules and specifications most historically favorable to pitchers.

There were several notable details and firsts in Hunter’s perfect game. One of the coolest bits wasn’t on the mound at all, but rather at the plate: Hunter went 3 for 4 at the plate with a double and 3 RBIs, making him the pitcher with the best batting line during a perfect game. The game was played in Oakland during the Athletics’ first season there, but the 13-12 A’s weren’t very popular yet: there were only around 6,300 fans in attendance, the smallest crowd at any perfect game ever. Hunter, at age 22, is also the youngest to ever pitch a perfect game.

9. Kenny Rogers vs. California Angels B-T Probability: 6.2 in 100,000

On Thursday, July 28th, 1994 Kenny Rogers threw his perfect game at Arlington Park in Texas returning the favor to the Angels who perfected the Rangers 10 years earlier. It is the only instance of two major league teams throwing perfect games against eachother to date.

Kenny Rogers had quite a career and one that is unique in a lot of ways. The first interesting point that stands out is that instead of peaking just once in his career like many pitchers on this list and really any MLB player or pro athlete, he found a way to find great success in his career twice, both early in his career and well into his 40s later on. Rogers was a very steady major league pitcher throughout his 20 years in the bigs but his career is bimodal in a sense where he was at his best around normal peak years when he was 28-30, when he threw the perfect game, but also found his greatest form and maybe is most well known for what he did in his early 40s with the Detroit Tigers. Earlier on in his career his “stuff” might have been a little better as he posted higher strikout rates but he is a pitcher that throughout his career didn’t rely too heavily on the strikout and found a way to get it done with weak contact never having to really overpowered the batter.

During the perfect game Rogers was up against a lineup that he struck 8 times. The lineup included some notable batters such as Bo Jackson, Jim Edmonds, and Chili Davis, all who it the ball well that year and got on base at a high clip, especially Chili who owned an OBP of .410 that year, the second-best mark of his career.

Chili Davis only saw 5 pitches from Rogers, his failure to work the count may have really aided Rogers in the feat as he was a very dangerous hitter at the time. Whether it was by way of luck or excellent planning Rogers’ ability to get through Davis quickly was certainly a key to his success on the day. As Tom Tango recently noted by way of Bill James, there are only 9 players that have logged 1000 or more games as a DH in MLB history. Chili Davis is 7th on that list, of which 5/9 are hall of famers or will be hall of famers in the case of David Ortiz. Chili Davis is not a hall of famer but if you’re going to be penciled into the starting lineup 1000 or more times as a designated hitter you have to be able to swing the bat and in 1994 that was certainly the case.

A 39th round draft pick, Kenny Rogers is a great example of a late round success story, his longevity and skill led to playoff wins and many achievements including one of 21 perfect games.

8. Randy Johnson vs. Atlanta Braves B-T Probability: 5.6 in 100,000

As we start inching closer to the top of our most unlikely perfect game countdown you might expect to see pitchers with less experience and maybe even some names known for the perfect game they threw and nothing else. This one does not fit that picture, in fact it doesn’t come close.

In May of 2004 Randy Johnson threw a perfect game against a Braves lineup that would go on to win the NL East and post a 96-66 record on the year. It was an all time great hall of famer against a lineup with some big time names and hall of famers in their own right. The lineup included Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones, and a very strong J.D. Drew. Andruw Jones makes an interesting hall of fame case, Chipper Jones is a hall of famer, and J.D. Drew had if not the best year one of the two best years of his career in 2004, finding his way on base a ton at the time.

J.D. Drew never really hit lefties all that well during his career but in 2004 he had a 142 wRC+, .929 OPS, and a 18.9 K% against lefties, a tough out for anyone at the plate even if you’re The Big Unit.

Randy Johnson struck out 13 Braves in his perfect game, striking out every batter at least once except for the aforementioned Andruw Jones and utility-man Mark DeRosa. Johnson had a K/BB rate of 6.59 in 2004 which was far and away the best of his career and really helps when it comes to finding a groove and retiring 27/27 batters in a major league outing. His WHIP was sub-1 in 2004 as well at 0.90, also a career best, command was not a problem for Johnson which was a huge key to success for the flame-throwing lefty.

Johnson was an ace in every meaning of the word, he led the major leagues in strikeouts 8 times between 1993-2004. To go along with that he has a career HR/9 of 0.9 meaning he gave up less than 1 home run per nine innings, those kind of numbers put him in a limited group of all time greats. He won 303 games and led his league in ERA+ (ERA adjusted to league ERA and player’s ballpark) 6 times. No matter what numbers you look at it is clear that Randy Johnson was a dominant major league talent. The perfect game is simply a feather in his cap even though it is in the upper tier of unlikelihood due to the high quality of opposition that he faced.

7. Dennis Martinez vs. Los Angeles Dodgers B-T Probability: 5.0 in 100,000

Dennis Martinez led his Montreal Expos to victory on July 28th, 1991 throwing a perfect game against the LA Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Martinez was one of the top pitchers in the AL in 1991 and as we are starting to see as we have reached the top 10 of this countdown had to work his way through a strong Dodgers lineup that finished 93-69 on the year under skipper, Tommy LaSorda.

In some cases these perfect games are very random events, pitchers get hot one day, come up against a poor lineup and can make it through all 9 innings unscathed. In other cases even though these events are extremely rare you aren’t entirely in awe by who got the job done. Pitchers that we’ve seen already that are of a more recent era like Roy Halladay and Felix Hernandez were no strangers to working long into games and leading the league in categories such as complete games and shutouts. That’s not to say you are bound to throw a perfect game if you get through 9 innings once a month but if you have the ability to put yourself in those sort of positions it might make it a little easier to run into a chance at a perfect game.

Dennis Martinez fits in the same category as Halladay and Hernandez in this respect. Leading up to 1991 which was arguably the best year of his career he threw 21 complete games between 1988-1990, then throwing 9 more in 1991 including his perfect game. He was no stranger to working long into games as he led the league in complete game in 1979 when he was an Oriole. He completed 18 games that year and 15 the year before in 1978. It wasn’t something he did regularly throughout his 23 year MLB career but in his best spurts from 1978-1982 and 1988-1992 he had no problem working deep into games. If there is an underlying predictive statistic for a perfect game it seems like being able to go the distance often has to be about the best one.

The Dodgers lineup that day was both peculiar and extremely solid at the same time. The top batters in the Dodger lineup were Juan Samuel, Eddie Murray, and Daryl Strawberry. It’s an interesting one because when you think of each of those players, at least for me, Dodger certainly isn’t the first baseball team that comes to mind. 1991 also fittingly enough ended up being the final year that each of them contributed in a star everyday role for a big league club. Eddie Murray went to the Mets and had some success but for this most part this ended up being the final year of the production that we remember them for. Mike Sciosia was also the Dodgers catcher that day.

Interesting lineup names aside, Dennis Martinez made quick work of the Dodgers only striking out 4 but retiring all 27 batters using just 96 pitches. Martinez led the league in ERA in 1991 and only gave up 9 home runs all year in 31 games started. His perfect game is a stellar achievement in what was a career year for the Nicaraguan-born Expo.

6. Phillip Humber vs. B-T Probability: 4.6 in 100,000

Below average pitchers throw gems from time to time, but rarely do they do what the White Sox’s Phillip Humber did versus the Seattle Mariners in 2012: throw a perfect game. Going by name and reputation alone, Humber might be the least likely of the players on this list to throw a perfect game. He was a journeyman who played on five different teams in eight seasons, and made nearly half of his career appearances in long and middle relief. Humber ended with a 6.44 ERA in 2012, and that’s counting his perfect game. Save for a solid 2011 campaign in which he threw for a 3.75 ERA that was actually worse than his 3.58 FIP, Humber was strikingly below average.

It is actually surprising how far down Humber is on the list, given his complete lack of name recognition and poor counting stats. Even his POBP numbers are awful; his .348 POBP in 2012 ranks as the highest of any pitcher to ever throw a perfect game. To put in perspective how unlikely Humber’s performance was: Humber averaged over one batter reaching base per inning on the season, but was able to limit the Mariners to no base runners through nine.

The only reason Humber doesn’t rank closer to the top of the list is the Mariners’ lackluster lineup. If you check the box score, you’ll see a cast of random role players from the late-2000s and early-2010s: Chone Figgins, Miguel Olivo, Munenori Kawasaki, Dustin Ackley, Jesus Montero, Michael Saunders. Future all-stars Kyle Seager and Justin Smoak were still early in their careers and experiencing growing pains, and Mariners legend Ichiro Suzuki was in the midst of his worst season in Seattle before being shipped off to the Yankees in the middle of the year. The absence of any truly good players, combined with the absence of any truly bad players, resulted in a middling lineup that was susceptible, but not too susceptible, to a perfect game.

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References

Baseball Reference. Retrieved from https://www.baseball-reference.com/

Baseball Almanac. Retrieved from https://www.baseball-almanac.com/pitching/piperf.shtml

Fangraphs. Retrieved from https://www.fangraphs.com/

Image Citation

Catfish Hunter. Retrieved from http://www.thepostgame.com/blog/throwback/201505/remember-catfish-hunter-throwing-ninth-pefect-game-mlb-history

Kenny Rogers. Retrieved from http://shsports.blogspot.com/2014/07/texas-rangers-kenny-rogers-pitches.html

Randy Johnson. Retrieved from https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/1972181

Dennis Martinez. Retrieved from https://montrealgazette.com/sports/remembering-martinezs-perfect-game-with-expos

Phillip Humber. Retrieved from https://sports.yahoo.com/news/philip-humber-most-obscure-perfect-182236269.html