These days we all know Democrats perform best in cities, and Republicans in rural areas. That working white class people are becoming more Republican, and suburban educated folk more Democratic. Clinton urban areas with a population of at least 50,000 by 24 points, and Trump won rural areas by 28 points. But it wasn’t always this way. In fact, America was a lot more regional back in the day.
As we all know, slavery was once a huge part of American society and the economy. These slaves formed the backbone of the Southern economy, and their presence led to much of the current culture and traditions of the area. Inevitably, it also led to great racial tensions, whose legacy has not fully gone away. This of course, has applied to politics.
Post Civil War. The 13th, 14th, and 15th Amendments were enacted, abolishing slavery and giving them citizenship and the right to vote (for only males that is). This was largely the result of the Republican Party, who pushed for this and the eradication of the Confederacy. And because Southern whites were enraged that their supposed “racial superiority” was erased, they enacted Jim Crow laws and started to vote for the Democratic Party en masse.
And vote for the Democrats they did. For nigh over a century, the states of the former Confederacy voted for the Democrats, purely because of the stigma of the Republicans of years past. Even though 1865 was the last year of the war, it took until 1880 for the presidential election to fall upon predictable partisan lines. Every Democratic nominee from Winfield Scott Hancock to William Jennings Bryan to FDR to JFK won the states of the South. But the 1960s changed everything.
While the Civil Rights Movement really became “big” during the 1950s, it was during the 1960s that legal victories came through. Most especially important was the 1964 Civil Rights Act, which eradicated segregation. But because this law was pushed through by President Lyndon B. Johnson, a Democrat, Southern whites started to leave the Democratic Party.
The 1964 presidential election was the first instance where the South voted GOP. Though Johnson demolished his opponent Sen. Barry Goldwater by a landslide 61.1 to 38.5%, he lost the states of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina by landslide margins themselves. And since then, Southern whites began their inexorable march towards the Republicans.
President Jimmy Carter was the last president to win the states of the South in an election. That was in 1976. The last president to win any states in the Deep South (excluding Virginia) was Bill Clinton in 1996, when he won Louisiana and Arkansas. And since then, the South has voted for Republicans in landslide margins.
But there is hope for the Democrats. Though Florida since 1964 has become more Republican, elections have become extremely close. In 2018, both Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and Sen. Rick Scott (R) won by less than a percentage point, though Scott defeated incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson (D). North Carolina has also become a swing state, going for President Barack Obama in 2008, though going for Trump in 2016. And Georgia, with its growing urban and suburban population, has become more friendly for Dems. State House Minority Leader Stacy Abrams (D) lost to state Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R) in the 2018 governor’s race by 55,000 votes out of 3.9 million votes cast. As Democrats become more competitive in the suburbs, it seems as though the South (mostly) is coming back to them. But Republicans continue to do better in rural areas.
Remnants of the Solid South could be seen today. Incumbent Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) is running for reelection on Nov. 16th, having won in a relative surprise in 2015. And in the Mississippi gubernatorial race, state Attorney General Jim Hood (D) is running against Republican Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves. In fact, no Republican has held the seat of state attorney general in MS since Reconstruction. And numerous rural local seats, both in state legislatures and such positions as sheriff and coroner, continue to be held by Democrats.
But as politics has become nationalized, the less and less rural Democrats continue to win. In 2018, four Democrats in the Alabama State House lost their seats, three of them in rural areas. Even from 2015 to 2019, in the Louisiana gubernatorial primary, there was a swing towards Republicans in largely white, rural areas, and towards Democrats in the suburbs.
One thing can be certain: with each passing election, the Solid South becomes more like the Solid Republican South.
I think one problem democrats are facing especially in R states is they are going left faster than the republicans are going right. If you look at the 2018 midterms the top 8 most left candidates lost. The house of representatives was won by purple districts not by deep blue ones. Both parties should face this reality if they want to keep winning elections.
It is interesting to see how demographics of voting throughout history. The shift from Republican to Democrat that happened in the 60s is interesting. State College is an interesting red/blue demographic to look at. The middle of Pennsylvania typically goes Republican, and the city corners Democrat. Penn State is smack dab in the middle, but has been know to be very Democrat leaning in recent history. There is a large pool of young people and educators living in the area that support Democratic ideals. In the 2016 Presidential election. The red middle overtook the blue corners and the state went to Trump. This rural and urban dynamic within our own state is always changing and fluctuating.
The demographics of the United States will always be mobile. As the South begins to lose its strong Republican sway, Michigan and Pennsylvania and Ohio will gain one. In a few decades, mass migration from California to Texas will flip those states, and campaigns will change as a result. Interestingly enough, Southern Whites did not leave the democrat party as per the history class narrative. In fact, Jimmy Carter announced his campaign in a KKK meeting house, and no Democrat senators changed party after the civil rights act was passed. An even more interesting fact was that Lyndon Johnson noted that passing that law will “win the black vote for a century”. I think that the Democrats during that time were just as racist, but playing political games to rewrite history.