When it comes to American politics, nearly every pundit has said this statement at least once this past decade: “Cities vote Democratic; rural areas vote Republican.” And with each passing election, this trend keeps growing wider, with the added mix of suburban areas starting to trend more Democratic. But this overly simplified saying completely ignores one underdiscussed but important topics in contemporary politics: some cities vote Republican.
While the biggest cities across the US vote Democratic (think NYC, Los Angeles, Miami, Chicago, Seattle, etc.), other less-populated urban areas vote Republican. In fact, historically, urban areas weren’t typically dominated by one political party unless they were in the South. Throughout the 19th and 20th centuries, cities such as Philadelphia and San Francisco voted for GOP mayors, councilmembers, and Congresspeople. It wasn’t until around the 1930s-60s that practically every major city in the nation voted overwhelmingly Democratic, spurred on by the party’s economic and social leftward shift (think New Deal and Civil Rights Movement). But some trends are slow, and in some parts of the country, they are noticeable.
The Philadelphia Skyline as seen from the Museum of Art. Courtesy Rob Shenk and used under Creative Commons.
Some of the most prominent urban areas that vote consistently Republican include: Colorado Springs, Colorado (metro population: 738,939); Greenville, South Carolina (metro population: 906,626); Provo, Utah (metro population: 526,810); Grand Rapids, Michigan (metro population: 1,069,405); Fort Worth, Texas (population: 895,008); and Knoxville, Tennessee (metro population: 868,546). Some cities, such as St. Petersburg, Florida (metro population: 2,870,569) and San Diego, California (population: 1,425,976), are “swingy” whose majorities frequently flip between both parties.
What’s also important to note is that nearly every city in the country has pockets of Republican voters. For Philadelphia, this includes portions of South Philly and Northeast Philly. For New York City, it’s Staten Island. For Cleveland, it’s the city’s southwestern and eastern sections. And for practically all cities across the nation, suburban and most especially exurban areas are prime GOP hotspots. The urban GOP strength exists: in 2016, Clinton defeated Trump in Philadelphia County 82.3%-15.3%, which translates to 584,025 to 108,748 votes. Even though Trump only won 15%, that still means 108,000 votes, which is about 31,000 more votes than the total number of votes cast in Centre County that election. FiveThirtyEight, a political and sports analytics blog, has a great article and interactive feature detailing these sorts of regions for every large metropolitan area.
The 2016 presidential election by precinct in Montgomery County, PA. Clinton dominated in more racially diverse and densely populated areas, and Trump in the more “sparsely” populated zones further away from Philadelphia (gray means either no data or the precinct couldn’t match with the shapefile). Map made by me using QGIS and data from the county’s division of elections.
What defines Republican dominance in urban areas is different for each city. For Midwestern and Northeastern cities, these GOP-leaning areas are predominately filled with white working-class people. These people, though prominently a former part of the Democratic coalition, find themselves in agreement with the GOP, even if they do live in a city. But for cities such as Colorado Springs and Knoxville, it’s mainly a combination of the city’s demographics (they’re majority white), culture, and economy. For example, Provo is very white (84.8% in the 2010 census, in fact) and filled with Mormons (88.7% of the city’s population as of 2010), two demographics that lean Republican. As for Colorado Springs, its demographics (70.7% white in 2010) and economy (heavily dominated by the defense industry) come into play.
Not all cities in the US are the same, and it behooves us to stop viewing them monolithically. Most importantly, the strength of the Republican Party in urban areas must be acknowledged, otherwise each presidential election wouldn’t be so close in terms of overall vote. As with the Democrats, the real strength of the Republican Party lies in the cities and suburbs. Ignore urban Republicans at your own peril.
Any sort of generalizations or preconceived notions about politics should not be regarded as facts. While the analysis aspect of seeing which counties and cities voted whichever way doesn’t personally interest me, the implementation of common sense could result in the same sentiments considering the aftermath of voter turnout. The confines of political establishments are always in fluctuation, much like many other mediums in life, and there is definitely no universal truth that applies to the facet as a whole.
I live in a rather large county outside of Pittsburgh and, at least almost everyone I know of, we vote republican even though we are a rather wide mix of people. My county is looked upon by other counties around us as the agricultural one, where only farmers and cow pastures are right next to natural gas mining and whatnot, however what these people do not see is the booming economy created and the wealth brought in by major insurance agencies, gas station owners, business owners, and even influential doctors in the Pittsburgh area that call Washington County their home. I always think it is interesting to see these people surrounding me unite under one front when they have such varied backgrounds but I think everyone has found their own reason for agreeing with the Republican party and defeating the norm around us of siding Democratic.
I live in a suburban area and we are gerrymandered into a republican dominated district by the weirdest shapes possible. Voter turnout is definitely high in the area but it doesn’t matter because of how many of the opposing side there are. Of course, the big cities will be democratically dominated because of the high cost of living. Everyone in the middle class would like a little more cash in their pocket to keep them above water in the expensive living situation they are in. Don’t count the republicans out, though.