Once upon a time, national governments were the only entities that possessed the funding and resources needed to undertake missions into space. But with the advent of private companies such as Virgin Galactic, Orbital Sciences, and SpaceX, we are beginning to enter a new era in space exploration. These companies continue to take on increasingly ambitious missions, from offering tourist flights into space to re-establishing America’s human spaceflight capabilities. But none can match the daring vision of Dutch non-profit Mars One: to establish a permanent human settlement on Mars.
If you have read this blog before or happen to know me personally, then you know I’m an optimist when it comes to human spaceflight (and pretty much everything else). But regarding Mars One I am far from confident. In fact, upon closer inspection the Mars One mission appears downright ludicrous.
According to John Logsdon, space policy expert at George Washington University, the Mars One mission “looks like a scam…they don’t have the technology, they don’t have any agreements with the space industry…it looks very shaky.” A recent study conducted by MIT found the Mars One plan to be riddled with technical holes. The systems required to maintain a breathable atmosphere and provide the colonists with water do not yet exist. According to one MIT simulation, the first colonist would suffocate within 68 days of arrival.
Mars One estimates the total cost of landing the first four colonists to be $6 billion and claims that this can be achieved by 2025. When approached by Mars One, Nobel-prize winning physicist Gerard ‘t Hooft told them “you have to put a zero after everything,” meaning their financial estimations and timetables were wildly optimistic. The MIT study found that the mission would require nearly twice as many rockets as the team claims.
Mars One plans to raise the requisite funds through a reality TV show that will follow the 100 astronaut contestants as they compete for a spot on the final Mars One crew. Aside from just sounding ridiculous, Mars One has already run into problems finding a production company for the show. And even with an optimistic $6 billion price tag, let’s keep in mind that American Idol still only grossed $96 million last season. Even if they manage to drag the astronaut selection process on for two seasons and become the most popular show on television, we’re still looking at well over $4 billion that will have to come solely from private donations.
My final problem with Mars One is philosophical in nature – Why? I will always be an advocate for human space exploration, but I do not see any practical reason to send humans to Mars at this point. The day-to-day lives of humans on Mars would be occupied primarily with performing maintenance tasks to ensure they survive another day, allowing them to do more maintenance the next day. So what kind of person would willingly exile themselves to the Red Planet to die? Interviews with applicants to the Mars One program include such quotes as “love is not something I need,” and “if I die on Mars, that would be great.” If we are forced to suppress basic human nature in order to say we’ve colonized another planet, than has humanity really achieved anything?
Sources:
[1] www.mars-one.com
[2] http://www.buzzfeed.com/danvergano/mars-aint-never-gonna-happen
[3] http://nasawatch.com/archives/2015/02/throwing-shade.html
[4] http://arstechnica.com/staff/2013/05/if-mars-one-makes-you-skeptical-you-might-be-dead-insidelike-me/
[5] http://newsoffice.mit.edu/2014/technical-feasibility-mars-one-1014
ykx5001 says
Colin, I agree with you that I never took Mars One seriously. I think that sending humans to Mars won’t happen until we know we have the technology to also send them back, and that this process will still most likely happen through NASA, or through a coalition of major private space companies that have already established a history of success (not sure about the legalities of that, though).
Although, if you offered me a chance to go to Mars, even without the chance to come back, I’m not sure I wouldn’t say yes to that…
Anna Friendly Whitaker says
I’ve watched some of the interviews with the people who want a one-way ticket to Mars, and I find it astounding how little they care about leaving everything behind. It’s almost like they have no emotional connection to life here on planet earth, and have no qualms about leaving it permanently, which I could never do personally. However, I would totally go to Mars and rescue all the robots because I feel bad we left them there all alone.
Alayna Kennedy says
Colin,
As always, I love your blog post about the Mars colony. Even though it sounds ridiculous (and it definitely is, I’m agreeing with you there) are you trying to tell me that you wouldn’t watch a reality TV show about 100 people who want to exile themselves on Mars? It’d be wonderful.
In all seriousness, I adore your optimism about space travel and the general capacity of the human race, and I do agree with you that we must not sacrifice our basic human nature in order to establish a useless colony on Mars.
But, like, having people on Mars would be totally awesome.
Alayna
Karam J. Salameh says
I think an answer to your philosophical question would be curiosity. As a human race we are naturally interested in things that we don’t know about. Speaking of curiosity, i haven’t been keeping up to date on the Mars rover Curiosity. Anything new and/or exciting from it?