Passion Blog #5 – Preview of B1G Championships

After months of intense preparation and regular season competitions, the climax is right around the corner: conference and national championships. Since last week was a “bye” week for most NCAA teams in order to rest up for the stretch ahead, I want to take this blog to give my prediction for the top 5 finishers at the B1G championship this week in Columbus. While undoubtedly my opinion may be biased, I will try to support each ranking with data from the season and my general intuition about each team’s strength coming into the meet. With that being said, here are my predicted rankings:

#1 Penn State

With Penn State confidently at my #1 position, it is no wonder I needed to include a disclaimer to my own bias. That being said, I truly believe that we are the most prepared team heading into this championship and it is our meet to lose. After a little bit of a rough start to the season, our commanding wins against Ohio State and Michigan to finish the regular have given us the momentum and confidence necessary to put up a strong performance. Statistically, our regular season score average ranks us below most other B1G teams but I think that more than anything reflects our lack of competitions with generous scoring. Both the University of Nebraska and Oklahoma are known for hosting meets that produce season high scores, and every other B1G team besides us had the opportunity to compete at either of those schools this year. Nonetheless, our capacity to reach this top position will rely on strong performances on parallel bars and rings; arguably our two strongest events where we had numerous regular season All Americans. Consistency will also be critical to our success. As a team with one of the highest difficult scores, or “ceiling score”, being able to avoid major mistakes and execute well on every routine will put us in a great spot to grab the B1G title.

#2 Michigan

As the regular season B1G champions and outright winner of the previous two B1G championships, it is no surprise that Michigan is the favorite to win this one. While they have lost significant depth, leadership, and poise from a strong graduating senior class, they have used this season as an opportunity to rebuild and give experience to one of the most talented freshman classes in the country. Two of their freshman, Fred Richard and Landon Blixt, are senior national team members that, despite having some rough competitions this year, seem to be becoming more and more acclimated to the atmosphere of college gymnastics and ready to peak come championship season. Michigan is another team with a relatively high potential difficult, or “ceiling” score, which gives them a great advantage over other teams if they are able to remain consistent and execute. Another unique advantage for Michigan is that they are very strong on the horizontal bar, an event that is traditionally very risky and on the lower-end of scoring relative to other events. Thus, this may be an event where they could pick up 2-3 points on other teams. In a championship final, this could easily be the difference that is able to put them atop the podium.

#3: Nebraska

In contrast to Penn State and Michigan, Nebraska is a team that does not have a particularly high “ceiling” score. In fact, their team strategy strongly emphasizes execution and doing routines that minimize the potential for major mistakes and falls. While Nebraska certainly has had some very strong performances this year, they have also had an equal number of very bad meets, such as getting beat by Illinois in a regular season matchup by over 10 points. Their inconsistency is reflected in an over 20-point swing between their lowest and highest scores on the season, a difference that is attributable to far more than just judging. Thus, I put Nebraska on the middle of this list because I think it is certainly possible to take the B1G title if they have a great day and others do not. They have very talented gymnasts that are incredibly clean and dynamic in their gymnastics, leading to high scores when they perform well. However, I think that their lack of consistency and low difficulty makes their chance of success dependent on too many variables that have to align in their favor.

#4: Illinois

While most rankings would probably have Illinois higher, as they were in fact only a few points away from taking the regular season title from Michigan, I just do not think they are the same caliber team as Penn State or Michigan. Like Nebraska, their difficulty score is not very high and is especially low on rings and high bar. While Illinois has had some very impressive team scores this year, these were at meets where they had nearly perfect performances and I am just skeptical of the chances of such an outstanding performance happening again. They are also struggling with some major injuries and will rely significantly on underclassmen who do not have the experience of competing in the pressure that comes with a conference championship final. That being said, I have a lot of respect for Illinois, especially in being able to have this type of season with their head coach leaving at the beginning of the year, and would not be surprised if they are able to put up a much higher finish than I expect.

#5: Ohio State

Despite being the home team at this B1G championship, I sadly do not see the Buckeyes with a very good chance of high-placing finish. With the worst conference record in the B1G, they have struggled to consistently display high performances and have had numerous instances of “falling apart” at the end of meets. While they are somewhat in “rebuilding mode” with a very high reliance on their freshman class, I think that Ohio State is in a much better position for success in future seasons than the one present. That being said, the energy of being at home in the Covelli Center will certainly add fuel to the fire and could lead anything to happen.