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New Year, New NBA?

January was a mess – not necessarily a bad mess, but certainly an unpredictable one.

Last month, the entire NBA world was caught off-guard with some of the events that transpired around the league. The Mavericks, after being the worst team in the league in 2016, inserted themselves into the playoff picture, the Warriors finally shook off their early season rust and reached elite basketball status, and the Bulls were one alpha dog away from an all-out locker room brawl.

Yet, despite these developments, what was most surprising was the turnover in the East, particularly with Cleveland and Philadelphia. The Cavaliers were an an abysmal 7-8 in January, losing more games than they had during the first three months of the year. Meanwhile, Sixers fans – including my roommate, who might be in love with Joel EmbiidĀ – can finally rejoice; the Sixers went on a tear to start 2017, nearly eclipsing their win total from last year and showing flashes of playoff potential.

I honestly could not fathom a more backwards reality than one in which the Cavs envy the Sixers’ success, but the NBA is no stranger to strangeness, and – based on the numbers – January was a strange month indeed.

Let’s break it down.

Cavaliers

There’s no pretty way to describe it – this LITERALLY is the worst that the Cavs have been since they re-acquired LeBron James two and a half years ago. According to meta-data from NBA.com, Cleveland’s “decline in winning percentage from the first three months of the season to January was the fourth-largest over the five full seasons since the lockout-shortened 2011-12 campaign.” Furthermore, the last time that LeBron had a losing record in a month was in 2006, his third year in the NBA.

So, what happened to the league’s defending champions?

LeBron seems to think that the team needs a playmaker – and there’s statistical validity to back up that claim. In January, the Cavs’ assist ratio, or the percentage of points scored on an assist, was a miserable 15.2, third-worst in the league. Cleveland was also bottom ten in true shooting efficiency, suggesting that their plummeting offensive rating largely stemmed from their inability to create open shots.

But the Cavs have to critically address their defensive woes as well. So far, LeBron and co. have surrendered a league-leading 17.9 points per game off the fast break in 2017, while giving up the eighth most points in the paint in that same span.

I’m inclined to think that the Cavs will find their groove come playoff time, but with only three months left before the playoffs, they need to gain some momentum, and fast.

76ers

I said it last post, and I’ll say it again: Trust. The. Process.

As a Knicks fan, there’s nothing more that I hate than saying those words. But I’ve got to give credit when credit is due, and this Sixers team has shown up to play in the new year.

There’s really only one reason that Philadelphia has surged in the standings over the past month: defense. In January, the Sixers had the best adjusted defensive rating in the NBA, limiting their opponents to a tenth best 104.8 points per game. Although this may seem relatively high, scoring has drastically increased in the NBA over the past two years – in fact, only one team is allowing less than 100 points per game (you guessed it: The Warriors).

The Sixers still have work to do on the offense end. They rank dead last in offensive efficiency and have some of the worst guard play in the league. Nonetheless, they’ve made remarkable strides in their ball facilitation and shooting (their 3-point field goal percentage in January was 35.1%, sixth in the NBA). Plus, they still have Joel Embiid, who is arguably the NBA’s most skilled big man. The Sixers will only improve as hisĀ post game and 3-point shot develop.

They say that defense wins championships. The Sixers wouldn’t win a championship right now if it hit them in the face. However, the franchise is making tangible steps in the right direction, and in two to three years, who knows what’ll happen.

Published inNBA BasketballTeam AnalysisTrends

One Comment

  1. amm7798

    I enjoyed reading your blog and I think it is interesting how you use statistics to back up the events happening in the NBA. Although I don’t follow basketball, I have heard of LeBron James, and I am surprised that the Cavalier’s are having such a bad season with such a star player.
    I think he makes a good point with the lack of success being connected to the lack of playmaking. Often times, a team can be very talented, but if they don’t know how to execuate that talent, they can only be so good.
    When I played basketball, I was always more of a defensive player. My dad used to always tell me that defense wins games. Even though they don’t usually get the fame and glory, defense is an important part of the game. I agree that defense could be a major reason why Philadelphia is succeeding and I give them credit for being about to adjust defense quickly because that is key in games.
    Interesting Blog and glad I got to read it again!

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