Through the eyes of the public, election seasons mark a period of increased ideological discourse and political advertising. Even for the uninterested, and thus uninitiated, the publicity of candidates, their policy stances, and controversies become the subject of prolonged attention, most evidently through the aid of mass media. As the results of the current federal general election continue towards certification, the rhetoric and talking points of both tickets remain of interest to American news channels and consumers (e.g., abortion (Mufarech, 2024), the economy (Horsley, 2024), immigration (Dewan et al., 2024; Lange, 2024)). In particular, one notable subject was that of crime, more accurately the fear of violent victimization. Throughout the campaign season, each presidential ticket, and media outlets generally, invoked tensions around crime, most often in relation to immigration (Lange, 2024). With that said. however, such a tactic has not only been common over the past few decades (Campbell & Schoenfeld, 2013), but more alarmingly, has been used to present a fictitious conceptualization of the frequency of and factors behind crime within the United States (Campbell & Schoenfeld, 2013). Put simply, current political discourse on crime, when amplified and disseminated by the media, leads the public to 1) overestimate the frequency of crime, especially violent crime, and 2) misattribute the occurrence of crime despite substantial evidence to the contrary.
Over the past thirty years, crime has seen significant declines across the United States. According to the Federal Bureau of Investigation (2024), between 1991 and 2021, property crime has seen a 63.7 percent decrease, with violent crime seeing a decrease of 45.6 percent. Additionally, while crime (both property and violent) saw an increase from 2021-22, it has continued to decline since. With that said, these declines are seldom acknowledged by the American populace; many Americans believe that the national occurrence of crime is has only increased over time (Gramlich, 2024). Furthermore, when focusing on the prevalence of violent crimes, many Americans tend to have a heightened fear of victimization based on a multitude of factors, including gender, race and ethnicity, age, socioeconomic status, and political ideology (Onat et al., 2021). Such was the case over the current election cycle (Dewan et al., 2024), despite the underlying rarity of violent crime altogether (FBI, 2024). Following this, one may justifiably ask why this tends to be the case; while a myriad of factors certainly contribute to the wider social perception of crime, I submit that the ubiquity and access of media channels plays a central role in how the public formulates an understanding of crime as it occurs. In particular, this may be illustrated through the use of cultivation theory (Dolliver et al., 2018), and in turn may be applied to modern electoral politics through the process of agenda setting ().
Cultivation theory posits that the heavy consumption of media content, specifically televised media, plays a central role in how people construe their social reality. That is, by consuming high amounts of television content, especially news content, individuals are likely to build their understanding of the world and social phenomena according to the content they are exposed to (Gruman et al., 2016) . Subsequently, cultivation theory suggests that, because violent content is overrepresented within televised media (Gruman et al., 2016), people will more readily attribute violence as frequent within social life. With that in mind, this very idea may be implicated within media depictions of crime. Despite the historical crime decline (FBI, 2024), studies have suggested that the sensationalization of violence and crime within televised media significantly increases the fear of crime within the population (Callanan, 2012; Dolliver et al., 2018). Furthermore, it has been demonstrated that this fear of crime may be associated with increased social punitivity, and thus increased support for punitive criminal justice policies (Dolliver et al., 2018). Taking this into consideration, it may be speculated that a candidate for political office informed on such a phenomenon may use it to their advantage to influence public fear of crime and thus public support of punitive policy stances.
Such a practice, agenda setting, has not only been utilized within previous presidential administrations, but was frequently illustrated throughout this year’s election. Broadly, agenda setting is the process of media shaping public focus towards certain issues, such that the public becomes increasingly aware of given topics and thus dedicates increased attention towards these salient issues. Focusing specifically on the political realm, the “policy agenda” may then be defined as the shaping of public issue salience to meet the needs and preference of policy makers (Gruman et al., 2016). Of relevance, an emphasis on crime has been a staple in modern policy agendas, as best exemplified by the “war on crime” and “war on drugs” between the 60s and 80s, respectively (Campbell & Schoenfeld, 2013; Fornili, 2018). A key element to such policy initiatives was as a dimension of fear and resentment towards crime, and likewise a degree of support for increasing punitive practice within criminal justice. Most damningly, such practices sought retribution towards criminal “Others”, namely towards communities of color. To elaborate, the overrepresentation of certain demographic groups within crime media lead to the stereotyping of certain groups (i.e., young black males) as more “criminalistic” compared to others, perpetuating systemic disparities and inequalities (Klein & Hodges, 2022). Turning towards the recent election, I would argue that this same process was used to incentivize punitive policy measures, overwhelming towards undocumented communities. Such can be illustrated not only by the choice in rhetoric found within political reporting, primarily reporting regarding conservative office-seekers (Lange, 2024), but subsequently through the public’s distress towards immigration as a factor behind crime. This is, once again, in spite of empirical literature suggesting otherwise, primarily that (undocumented) immigrants commit crimes at far lower levels than U.S. born citizens (Light & Miller, 2018; MacDonald et al., 2013)
References:
Callanan, V. J. (2012). Media consumption, perceptions of crime risk and fear of crime: Examining race/ethnic differences. Sociological Perspectives, 55(1), 93-115.
Campbell, M. C., & Schoenfeld, H. (2013). The transformation of America’s penal order: A historicized political sociology of punishment. American Journal of Sociology, 118(5), 1375-1423.
Dewan, S., Corkery, M., & Arango, T. (2024). Crime has been a big talking point. How does it look in battleground states? The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/03/us/crime-swing-states-election.html?searchResultPosition=1
Dolliver, M. J., Kenney, J. L., Reid, L. W., & Prohaska, A. (2018). Examining the relationship between media consumption, fear of crime, and support for controversial criminal justice policies using a nationally representative sample. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, 34(4), 399-420.
Federal Bureau of Investigation. (2024). Crime Data Explorer: Data Discovery Tool. Retrieved from https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/query
Fornili, K. S. (2018). Racialized mass incarceration and the war on drugs. Journal of Addictions Nursing, 29(1), 65-72.
Gramlich, J. (2024). What the data says about crime in the U.S. Pew Research Center. Retrieved from https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/24/what-the-data-says-about-crime-in-the-us/
Gruman, J. A., Schneider, F. W., & Coutts, L. M. (2017). Applied social psychology: Understanding and addressing social and practical problems (3rd ed.). Sage Publications.
Horsley, S. (2024). Here’s what Trump 2.0 means for the economy, from tariffs to mass deportations. NPR. Retrieved from https://www.npr.org/2024/11/06/nx-s1-5181327/trump-election-economy-tariffs-deportations
Klein, T. V., & Hodges, Q. (2022). An interreality study of race and homicide news coverage in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Crime, Media, Culture, 1-24.
Lange, J. (2024). Americans see immigration as top issue for Trump to tackle, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds. Reuters, Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/americans-see-immigration-top-issue-trump-tackle-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-11-07/
Light, M. T., and Miller, T. (2018). Does undocumented immigration increase violent crime? Criminology, 56(2), 370-401.
MacDonald, J. M., Hipp, J. R., & Gill, C. (2013). The effects of immigrant concentration on changes in neighborhood crime rates. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 29(2), 191-215.
Mufarech, A. (2024). How abortion motivated US voters. Bloomberg. Retrieved from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-11-06/how-abortion-motivated-votes-in-the-us-presidential-election
Onat, I., Guler, A., Kula, S., & Bastug, M. F. (2021). Fear of terrorism and fear of violent crimes in the United States: A comparative analysis. Crime and Delinquency, 69(5), 891-914.