Implications of Trust, Preparedness and Risk Perceptions on Deprivation Costs and Disaster Relief Planning

By J. Amaya📧, I. Serrano, V. Cantillo, J. Arellana, and C. Pérez

In Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 2024, 91, February. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2023.101780

Deprivation Costs Functions (DCFs) are key to designing effective relief distribution operations after disasters. In this paper, data are collected in Colombia and Ecuador to estimate DCFs for water and food, considering the influence of individuals’ attitudes on preparedness, risk perception, and trust in response agents. Hybrid Choice Models are used to analyze and compare the estimated DCFs. The analyses confirm that DCFs differ by commodity. Additionally, socioeconomic characteristics of individuals influence their willingness to pay for critical supplies to reduce their own suffering. Preparedness, risk perceptions and trust in response agents impact individuals’ behavior in disaster situations. The results also show that community and religious groups are considered the most trusted response agents in both countries. As a result, their involvement in official relief efforts should be more articulated. Colombia and Ecuador show significant differences in their estimated DCFs, confirming that deprivation costs are context-specific by nature. As such, DCFs should not be directly transferred among disaster locations. The findings from this study will support decision-makers in designing effective preparedness and response plans that are based on trust relationships that serve as foundations for community resilience.

Keywords: Humanitarian logistics; Deprivation costs; Hybrid choice models; Trust; Preparedness; Risk perception

Pharmaceutical Supply Chains and Drug Shortages

By Hui Zhao📧

In Tutorials in Operations Research: Advancing the Frontiers of OR/MS: From Methodologies to Applications, 2023, 228–245. https://doi.org/10.1287/educ.2023.0258

Although the pharmaceutical industry is vital to the economy and the efficiency of pharmaceutical supply chains directly affects the quality and cost of patient care, pharmaceutical supply chains have been largely under-researched compared with the thriving research on medical services/hospital operations by the INFORMS community. At the same time, the pharmaceutical industry faces a unique economic and regulatory environment with many supply chain challenges. In this tutorial, I aim to provide a basic understanding of the complicated pharmaceutical supply chain and the challenges it faces. Using drug shortages (a persistent problem facing the pharmaceutical industry, government, and the society) and many other examples, I demonstrate that the richness and uniqueness of the pharmaceutical supply chains provide great opportunities for impactful research.

Keywords: Pharmaceutical supply chains; Drug shortages; Supply chain management; Public health

AI Enforcement: Examining the Impact of AI on Judicial Fairness and Public Safety

By Yi-Jen (Ian) Ho, Wael Jabr📧, and Yifan Zhang

In Proceedings of Conference on Information Systems and Technology, 2023, August 6. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4533047

State judicial systems face the challenge of managing overwhelming prisoner populations and record-high incarceration costs. To be efficient, judicial systems are adopting artificial intelligence (AI) to assess offenders’ recidivism risks and recommend alternative punishments (instead of incarceration) for low-risk offenders. However, the impacts of such AI initiates on judges’ decision-making, offenders’ fairness, and public safety remain unknown. We investigate the effects of AI recommendations on judges’ sentencing decisions and the subsequent societal impact on public safety. Using a regression discontinuity design and unique data from 56,941 sentencing cases in Virginia, we first note that AI recommendations significantly increase the probability of offering alternative punishments, lower the probability of incarceration, and shorten the length of imprisonment. More importantly, we show that AI can promote or demote judicial fairness. While judges are more lenient toward females than males, AI helps alleviate such a gender-based difference. In addition, judges stay fair when sentencing risky offenders but give more favor to whites than blacks, both of whom receive AI alternative punishment recommendations. We last analyze the quality of judges’ decisions regarding offenders’ recidivism. The results indicate that judges’ leniency towards females and whites and strictness towards males and blacks hurt public safety. We compile the results to provide actionable implications for the public, judges, and policymakers to promote judicial fairness with AI support.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence; Judicial system; Sentencing; Bias; Regression discontinuity

Getting to a Win/Win with the Department of Defense

By S. Knepp, and Robert A. Novack📧 

In Supply Chain Management Review, 2021, May 12.

What better gig could any supply chain professional want—supplying an island paradise with a nearly guaranteed flow of a limited number of SKUs at regular intervals using a well-established sea carrier? Furthermore, the contract pays a bonus for cost reductions and service improvements. That said, don’t be fooled by the cool ocean breeze. To begin, the U.S./British island paradise is Diego Garcia, situated more than 1,000 miles from the closest land mass (India), 2,100 miles from Tanzania, and almost 10,000 miles from HQ in Washington D.C. And, well, it’s a desert island—talk about working remote. Between 2,500 and 5,000 U.S. troops live on the island, which features a 12,000 foot runway that accommodates any aircraft in the Department of Defense’s air fleet. A notable naval fleet also calls the island home. In other words, the island can deploy U.S. fighting resources in a very short period of time to an area of conflict on the other side of the world from the Pentagon. About now the strategic importance of the island and its supply chain snaps into focus. Fortunately, this is not a one off. Many U.S. bases around the world are managed by civilian companies, called base operating support (BOS). This is a form of public/private partnerships (PPPs). A PPP is an arrangement between a U.S. federal contracting agency representing the military and a privately owned company, where the privately owned company performs activities to support military operations. It is estimated that 40% or more of all overseas DoD bases are managed through the BOS concept. And its practices have been in place for more than 30 years. Who says you can’t change for the better what has been considered to be best practices by the U.S. government for the past 30 years? Here’s how a 4PL formed a public/private partnership to improve the supply chain to Diego Garcia.

View the full article from the publisher web site here.

Transparency in Procurement: Revealed vs. Concealed Scoring Rules in A+B Sealed-bid Auctions

By B. Quiroga, B. B. Moritz📧, and V. Daniel Guide📧

In Journal of Operations Management, 2021, 67 (1): 71–83. https://doi.org/10.1002/joom.1104

We investigate the impact of using a clear scoring rule in a sealed bid multi‐dimensional (A+B) procurement auction, as frequently used in government procurement. The central procurement agency in Chile (ChileCompra) asked for help to understand how concealing the scoring rule affected buyers. Using an experiment, we analyze the effect of transparently communicating the scoring rule on bidding outcomes by comparing the buyer’s surplus and supplier profits when buyers expressly communicate the weight they place on a nonmonetary (B) attribute, versus when this information is concealed from bidders. In addition, we compare outcomes where the scoring rule is made visible only after the offers are submitted. If the scoring rule is not disclosed, outcomes are poorer for buyers, and sellers see their profits increase.

Keywords: A + B auctions; Transparency; Government procurement

Do E-Waste Laws Create Behavioral Spillovers? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from California

By S. Dhanorkar📧, and S. Muthulingam📧 

In Production & Operations Management Journal, 2020, 29 (7): 1738–1766. https://doi.org/10.1111/poms.13182

Many governing bodies have launched efforts to shape the operations of manufacturers, administration of civic entities, and behavior of individuals to limit waste generation. Typically, such efforts commence with the enactment of targeted legislations that create operational changes (e.g., recycling fees, collection centers) to the waste collection and disposal processes. For example, over 25 states in the United States have enacted legislations that aim to properly dispose used electronic and electrical goods (i.e., e-waste) and divert such waste away from landfills. We argue that such legislations can have an impact that extends beyond just reducing e-waste. This is because such laws may not only motivate individuals to restrict e-waste but also induce broader behavioral spillovers that can prompt individuals to reduce waste in general. To explore this idea, we exploit a quasi-experimental setup that arises from California’s enactment of the Electronic Waste Recycling Act (EWRA). Specifically, a difference-in-differences analysis reveals that the introduction and implementation of the EWRA resulted in at least 4.93% reduction in municipal solid waste (MSW). A plausibility analysis illustrates that these MSW reductions are much larger than what can be attributed purely to the decline of e-waste. Furthermore, we show that the effect of e-waste laws is stronger when consumers have increased market access through (i) online connectivity and (ii) offline proximity. Our study informs policy makers on the effects of e-waste legislation and the critical role of market access in enhancing the impact of such legislation.

Keywords: E-Waste Laws; Behavioral Spillovers; Online Connectivity; Offline Proximity; Quasi-experiment

Inducing Compliance with Postmarket Studies for Drugs Under FDA’s Accelerated Approval Pathway

By Liang (Leon) Xu, H. Zhao📧, and Nicholas C. Petruzzi

In Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2021, 23 (1): 170–190. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2019.0822

Problem definition: In 1992, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) instituted the accelerated approval pathway (AP) to allow promising drugs to enter the market based on limited evidence of efficacy, thereby permitting manufacturers to verify true clinical benefits through postmarket studies. However, most postmarket studies have not been completed as promised. We address this noncompliance problem. Academic/practical relevance: The prevalence of this noncompliance problem poses considerable public health risk, thus compromising the original purpose of a well-intentioned AP initiative. We provide an internally consistent and implementable solution to the problem through a comprehensive analysis of the myriad complicating factors and trade-offs facing the FDA. Methodology: We adopt a Stackelberg framework in which the regulator, which cannot observe the manufacturer’s private cost information or level of effort, leads by imposing a postmarket study deadline. The profit-maximizing manufacturer then follows by establishing its level of effort to invest in its postmarket study. In establishing its deadline, the regulator optimizes the trade-off between providing public access to potentially effective drugs and mitigating public health risks from ineffective drugs. Results: We develop a deadline-dependent user fee menu as a screening mechanism that establishes an incentive for manufacturer compliance. We show that its effectiveness in inducing compliance depends fundamentally on the enforceability of sanction, a drug-specific measure that indicates how difficult it is to withdraw an unproven drug from the market, and the drug’s success probability: The higher either is, the higher is the probability that the mechanism induces compliance. Managerial implications: We synthesize and distill the salient trade-offs and nuances facing the FDA’s noncompliance problem and provide an implementable solution. We quantify the value of the solution as a function of a drug’s success probability and enforceability. From a public policy perspective, we provide guidance for the FDA to increase the viability and effectiveness of AP.

Keywords: Health public policy; Drug approval policy; Pharmaceutical industry; Asymmetric information; Moral hazard

Ready to Fight Tonight: An Analysis of Army Supply Chain Readiness

By Kylie Weaver, supervised by Robert A. Novack📧 (Thesis Supervisor) and John C. Spychalski📧 (Honors Advisor) (2020)

The purpose of this thesis is to explore the current Army supply chain infrastructure and practices in place related to their efficiency as part of a potential force projection against a near-peer in a high-end conventional war. The threat of near-peer competitors has come to be a common phrase used in defense circles as the United States military planners and policymakers look to the future of armed conflict. This thesis is primarily focused on Army capabilities, but due to the joint nature of warfighting and the structure of the Department of Defense, it is necessary to examine some of the military logistics infrastructures beyond that which belongs solely to the Army. Additionally, it is necessary to recognize that this work does address the capabilities of nations like Russia and China that make them near-peer competitors but does not evaluate the efficacy of current U.S. foreign policy towards them as that goes beyond the scope of this work. Due to the nature of this information this body of work is based solely on open-source information like the National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, congressional testimony, think tank reports, and unclassified documents. Based on the findings of this research, it is clear that the three largest challenges for Army supply chain readiness are the munitions supply chain, the need to balance readiness and modernization efforts, and the lack of reliable and secured 5G mobile technology. All three of these issues stem from years of budgetary uncertainty and lack of investment in emerging technologies and their application for use by the military.

Access the paper at Electronic Theses for Schreyer Honors College (ETDA) website here.

Stakeholders Perceptions to Sustainable Urban Freight Policies in Emerging Markets

By J. Amaya📧, J. Arellana, and M. Delgado-Lindeman

In Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2020, 132 (February), 329–348. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2019.11.017

The aim of this paper is to analyze the perceptions of key stakeholders to a set of policies designed to address urban logistics issues in two cities in Colombia. A ranking survey was conducted and analyzed unveiling levels of acceptance to the proposed policies for three types of stakeholders (Carriers, Receivers, and Citizens). Though some methodologies attempt to understand stakeholders’ perspectives towards urban freight policies, often only a certain type of stakeholder is considered; perceptions of Citizens are usually overlooked. The results suggest that stakeholders agree on the importance of having space to conduct freight operations in their urban areas. However, different stakeholders perceive policies differently and local context plays a key role, suggesting that decision-makers must consider these aspects before transferring initiatives from other urban settings. When space for freight operations cannot be provided, the results show that Carriers prefer a Receiver-led Consolidation program, Receivers consider an Urban Consolidation Center as the best alternative, and Citizens prefer Off-hour deliveries. While all of the preferred alternatives call for a more active role played by the other stakeholders, they also call for more sustainable practices and move away from traditional, restrictive policies. The results from this study serve as a tool for planners and decision-makers seeking input on the preferences of various stakeholders to, and the potential acceptability of, urban freight policies.

Keywords: Urban freight policies; Stakeholders’ perceptions; Sustainable urban logistics; Urban freight

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning: Applications in Army Logistics

By Benjamin Jordan Wonderling, supervised by Robert A. Novack📧 (Thesis Supervisor) and John C. Spychalski📧 (Honors Advisor) (2019)

As society and this economy moves into a revolutionary period of technological advancement, commonly referred to as the “Fourth Industrial Revolution” or “Industry 4.0,” organizations will need to adapt accordingly. Industry 4.0 involves critical advancements in artificial intelligence and machine learning that have the ability to change how organizations operate, communicate and strategically execute their inherent goals. Specifically, artificial intelligence and machine learning offer opportunity to improve a supply chain’s efficiency and logistics. While artificial intelligence and machine learning are optimal tools for providing solutions in theory, it is important to understand the feasibility of applications that leverage these tools. One large organization in particular that could benefit from implementing artificial intelligence and machine learning to improve its logistics is the United States Army. This thesis aims to provide an in-depth analysis of artificial intelligence and machine learning, explore application uses in logistics, then determine the feasibility of using artificial intelligence to improve Army logistics.

Access the paper at Electronic Theses for Schreyer Honors College (ETDA) website here.