Selecting a Starting Small Forward 

     Ah…the small forward position. It’s been the talk of the town ever since we traded KCP, and has picked up steam with the season just weeks away. Some believe that one of the young guys, Hachimura or Avdija, deserves a shot. Others feel more comfortable with the veteran presence of Will Barton. Many are even considering second-year forward Corey Kispert due to his terrific end to the 2022 season.  

     No matter who you back, we all understand the importance of getting this position right. Let’s look at it this way: Your scoring comes from Beal, Porzingis, and Kuzma. Ball handling responsibilities fall on Morris and Beal. Porzingis is your rim protector. Those are set in stone. What’s up for debate is how this lineup fairs in relation to three-point shooting and defense—both areas that Washington has struggled to correct in previous seasons. The starting small forward must excel in these areas to supply what this starting lineup lacks. 

     The words below outline the various pros and cons of each starting SF candidate, and explain why I think one stands out from the rest. 

 

Rui Hachimura 

     Entering last season, many of the Wizards faithful hoped for a breakout season from Rui. Unfortunately, those dreams were put on hold while he dealt with personal issues away from the team (SIDE NOTE: I’m very happy that Rui was able to take that time off from ball and just focus on his mental health. These guys are human beings too and just like us, need time away from work to de-stress and figure things out).  

     When he did return, Rui exceeded my expectations. I mean where did that 3-ball come from!? This man shot 44% from three last season, improving his previous years’ percentage by 12% (basketballreference.com)! Opposing defenses had to start respecting his shot, which lead to less attention on other guys to get buckets. His improved three-pointer could open driving lanes for guys like Brad and Kuz if his man is hesitant to help off him. That would be a huge boost on the offensive end. 

     At 6’8”, Hachimura finds himself in that middle-ground: Not as tall as most PFs, but not as small as many SFs. This comes with its negatives. He can’t move laterally with the quick small forwards and often gets beat off the dribble or on backdoor cuts. Opposing power forwards body him in the paint and play bully ball on their way to dominant stretches of play. This is the type of defensive liability that we can’t have on the court. 

      Additionally, he likes to operate in the mid-range area, more specifically off the dribble. This is a unique style of play that I feel would be wasted in a lineup of off-dribble scorers. Rui staying around that mid-range area could also cause spacing problems that clog up driving lanes and create chaotic offensive sets. Shot creation from your fifth option is more suitable off the bench. Although the shot is there, the defense and spacing are not. For those reasons, I believe Rui is not the best fit to start at small forward. 

 

Deni Avdija 

     The case for Deni is simple: DEFENSE! He’s shown for the last two years that he can lock up the opposing team’s best player…but can he do it consistently? That remains the question. We know the talent and lateral quickness are there. Guys like Butler, DeRozan, and even Giannis have had a tough time against Avdija. But the fouling is an issue that needs to be addressed or he’ll be spending more time next to coach Unseld than on the floor. What I mean by his fouling is that he seems to always stick with his assignment, but at the last second, he pokes his chest out or swipes down unnecessarily to warrant a whistle. Deni must clean this up if he wants to win the starting job. 

     As I mentioned in the opening, it’s not just defense that this lineup lacks. Three-point shooting is equally important, and is something that Deni has struggled with to begin his career. At just 31% the last two years, he ranks among the worst on the team in 3pt percentage (basketballrefrence.com). That’s not going to fly as a starter. His lack of shooting allows his defender to sag off and supply help on guys like Beal on drives or to KP in the post. Because of this, our offense becomes stagnant, and buckets are hard to come by. 

     If Deni earns this starting role, his shot will have improved dramatically this offseason, and I just don’t see that as the case. The defense is certainly a plus, but the negatives in finishing at the rim and shooting outweigh the positives. For these reasons, Deni is best suited to be the defensive anchor off the bench and not an offensive liability as a starter.  

     Now, don’t get me wrong, Deni’s lack of offense is not as bad as I may have portrayed. He’s a skilled passer, makes smart cuts, and can take it to the basket. The point I’m making is that he is best suited off the bench where he can create for others and not be a guy who stands in the corner and only shoots threes. 

 

Corey Kispert 

     After a lackluster start to his career, Corey seemed to ease into his role. He stopped rushing, played with control, and found his shot. One could even argue he was one of our most consistent players down the stretch. The only downside was that if his shot wasn’t falling, his impact on the game loomed around zero. Today’s NBA requires versatility on top of shooting. Corey must add some elements to his bag to keep up. 

     Rui may be the most consistent three-point shooter of the lot, but Corey supplies the highest volume. Kispert totaled eleven games of 3+ threes and five games of 4+ threes in 2022 (Statmuse). He even had a game against the Knicks where he knocked down 6 three-pointers! Corey would excel as a guy who camps around the three-point line and knocks down open shots. Defenses would again be hesitant to help off our playmakers. Driving lanes would open and space would be created. 

     Just as defense was Deni’s calling card, it’s also Corey’s achilles heel. He simply wasn’t good at that end last season. Too many times he got beat backdoor or off the bounce by quicker guards and forwards. His athleticism ranks in the bottom tier and his lateral quickness is not up to par. And that’s OK! We aren’t asking him to play lockdown defense. His primary role is to space the floor with his shooting and at least hold his own on the other end.  

     Unfortunately, I don’t trust that his individual defense won’t negatively impact our team defense. For that reason, I believe he’s best off the bench as a guy who spaces the floor and provides shooting to a unit that desperately needs it. If you’re going to bring Deni, Wright, and Gafford off the bench, you NEED Kispert’s shooting to stay afloat offensively. 

 

Will Barton 

     Experience! That’s what Barton brings from his eight successful years in Denver. No stranger to the playoffs, Barton has appeared in 29 playoff games. In those games, he averaged 13 points and upped his three-point percentage to 39%. He’s a career 35% shooter from three and averages around 12 ppg (basketballreference.com). That’s as average as it gets offensively.  

     As I mentioned in the opening, defense and shooting are vital qualities in our starting SF. Barton checks both boxes. He shoots it at a high clip from three and is a terrific on-ball defender. Denver would typically throw Barton on the best guard last season, further proof of his great defensive skill. He’s not at the level that Deni is on, but is a close second that shoots much better from long range. Furthermore, he’s laterally quicker than both Rui and Corey, and defends his position better. His shooting doesn’t match up with theirs, but his superior defense outweighs their offense.  

     Barton will not be the defensive liability that teams target, nor will their game plans single him out on offense as a guy to leave open. He’ll make them defend all five positions instead of doubling Beal or Porzingis. Most importantly, he plays defense! That’s what Coach Unseld has stressed all offseason, and should be the main goal of this season. Barton helps reach that goal, which is why he should be in the starting lineup!  

     There you have it. Will Barton is my pick to start at small forward this season. Let me know in the comments whether you agree or not, and if you disagree, feel free to tell me who you think should start at SF! Go Wiz! 

 

All facts and information found at the sites below: 

“Will Barton Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft Status and More | Basketball-Reference.Com.” Basketball-Reference.Com, www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bartowi01.html. Accessed 28 Sept. 2022.

@StatMuse. “Will Barton Playoffs | StatMuse.” StatMuse, www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/will-barton-playoffs. Accessed 28 Sept. 2022.

How the Wizards Can Avoid the Play-In and Clinch a Guaranteed Playoff Berth

     Year after year, the Wizards find themselves in the middle of the pack. Never good enough to compete, and not bad enough to earn a top five pick. It is the reason they have selected 9th or 10th in three of the last four drafts. Although those picks have generated solid role players, the likes of Hachimura, Avdija, and Davis are not game changers. Teams like Washington need a Paulo Banchero or a Cade Cunningham that will come in and change the path of this franchise for the better. The only problem: talents like these are not available in the late lottery.  

     Now, if Washington’s issues of mediocrity cannot be solved through losses, they must find a way to generate success on the court. That means a 46+ win season to lock in a playoff spot. But does simply reaching the playoffs equal success? According to a recent Twitter poll I conducted, 47% of Wizards fans view a playoff berth (without help of the play-in) as a successful season. Most desire a competitive team that competes night in and night out. How might Washington achieve such a challenging feat?  

     Listed below are my keys to securing a top six seed this coming season. They may not ensure a playoff berth but will certainly go a long way in securing one. 

 

Key #3: Starting Fast 

     Slow starts have plagued this team for much of the last five years. From the lifeless 7-13 start to the 2019 campaign to the nightmarish 0-5 start in 2020, Washington has not helped themselves out. That is why last season’s 10-3 outburst was so refreshing. We finally had life. The buzz around the team filled the DC streets and talk of the playoffs did not seem too farfetched. Then, a downward spiral that would last until the All-star break. Whether you want to blame poor coaching or players creating a toxic environment (not saying it was Harrell and Dinwiddie’s fault…but maybe I am), the team did not meet expectations. They fell into a hole, and once the climb to contention became too steep, bottomed out. If this year’s team wishes to avoid a similar fate, they not only need to begin the season with urgency, but must maintain the intensity throughout those tough winter months.  

     The East is a grind this year. Milwaukee, Boston, Miami, Philadelphia, and Brooklyn are poised to take those top five spots. If Washington wishes to avoid the play-in, they will have to compete with talented rosters such as Cleveland, Chicago, Toronto, and Atlanta for that final spot. I know it is quite ambitious. However, the Wizards have the talent to get it done. Winning their first 12-13 games might not ensure them a top 6 seed, but it will go a long way toward avoiding the play-in. 

 

Key #2: PG Play

 

 

 

 

 

 

There is a reason this was my reaction to the KCP for Morris and Barton trade. I absolutely love Monte Morris’ game! The way he sets the pace and runs the offense is exactly what the Wiz lacked last season. He can shoot the three (39.5%) and finished fifth in the NBA last year in assist to turnover ratio (4.2/1) (teamrankings.com). Compared to Dinwiddie, who shot just 31% from three, he is a significant upgrade.

To be effective in this offense, Morris must play with pace and get the ball into the hands of Beal and Porzingis. They are our money-makers, and it is the PG’s responsibility to set them up for success. Playing with pace is also vital. Too often last season we slowed it down and played out of the half court. Brad would get doubled and swing it out to Dinwiddie, who would dribble out the shot clock and hoist a side-step three (I think we all know by now how that would go).

Although one solid point guard is great, having a second option who could just as easily start is a blessing. Delon Wright is a pure defender. If you watched any of the 2022 playoffs, you saw Wright’s lockdown skill on full display. He held Lowry to just 8 ppg on 34% shooting (statmuse). If that is not enough, he shot 38% from three and ranked just one spot behind Morris in Ast/TO ratio (teamrankings.com).

I see Wright playing a more defensive style of PG for the Wiz this season. Someone who can come in and lock down the best guard on the opposing team. Last year, our defensive options at the PG position were Dinwiddie (not much effort defensively), Holiday/Neto (too small), and Beal (not a great defender). Not exactly the greatest options. With Wright, I am comfortable throwing him on a player like Luka or Trae Young. He has the size and talent to hold them in check. Heck, I would even start him over Morris in some games where you need that extra defense against talented guards. If Delon plays solid D and shoots the ball well, our second unit will be a well-oiled machine!

 

Key #1: Health!

It is no secret that our two best players are injury prone. KP has not played over 60 games in a season since 2016-17. Brad is coming off a wrist injury that cost him the second half of last season. Kuz missed the last 15 games of 2022. Will Barton missed a huge chunk of the 2020 and 2021 seasons, including most of the playoffs, with various knee and hamstring issues. Rui has never played more than 60 games in an NBA season. Deni broke his ankle at the end of the 2021 season. All these injuries justify the concern over the durability of this roster. The solution? Honestly, a bit of good fortune.

Every year, the team that stays the healthiest usually makes a deep playoff push. We saw it this past year with Boston’s finals run. Ben Simmons was injured for the Nets in round 1, Middleton goes down for Milwaukee in round 2, then Lowry has hamstring issues in the ECF. Was Boston just the better team? Maybe. But health certainly impacted their run. This perfectly encapsulates what is at stake health-wise for Washington. When healthy, KP is a 20 & 10 guy. Brad can drop a 30-ball every night. Kuz supplies volume scoring and leadership. Rui shoots the three at 45%. Deni locks down your best player.

The talent is there! The depth is there! It can all come together if they just stay healthy!

 

All stats & information found with help from these sites:

“NBA Basketball Player Stats – Assist to Turnover Ratio.” NBA Basketball Player Stats – Assist to Turnover Ratio, www.teamrankings.com/nba/player-stat/assist-to-turnover-ratio. Accessed 14 Sept. 2022.

@StatMuse. “Kyle Lowry Career Playoff Stats V Hawks | StatMuse.” StatMuse, www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/kyle-lowry-career-playoff-stats-v-hawks. Accessed 14 Sept. 2022.

Hello and welcome to all the amazing Wizards/NBA fans that have taken the journey to this blog! I am so excited to share stories about the Wizards throughout this upcoming season, but first, here’s a little bit about myself:

My name is Gregory Finberg and I am currently a first-year student studying sports journalism at Penn State. I’ve been a Wizards fan my entire life, and have not missed a game in over four years. I literally live for Wizards basketball (which is saying something since we usually aren’t very good). My main goal here is to have fun writing about my favorite basketball team and interact with the amazing fans we have in DC. The writing is not going to be top-tier, nor will I have the sources that many of the great NBA writers have. However, I will bring my passion for this team and ambition to learn this craft to the table in every article I write.

As mentioned before, this blog is just a start to my journalism career,  so any and all feedback is extremely welcome! Please feel free to share any tips or advice you have, whether in the writing itself or the journalism field, for it will go a long way in improving my skills.

If you have any general questions, comments, or would just like to talk Wizards basketball, feel free to reach out to me via email (gaf5266@psu.edu) or on Twitter (@GregFinberg).

I look forward to bringing fun and exciting content to Wizards fans all season long! Go Wiz!